【*WHAT HAPPENED ON THURSDAY*】
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ +0.34%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.64%;
US CPI in line with expectations: +6.5% y/y vs. +6.5% (expected) & +7.1% (previous); Core CPI +5.7% y/y vs. +5.7% (expected) & +6% (previous);
Fedspeak: Harker endorsed 25 bps for Feb, Bullard's hawkish pushback stood out;
UST 10y$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2301(10Ymain)$ yield -9.8 bps to 3.44%;
Dollar Index $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ down nearly 1% to 102.25;
Brent oil $Light Crude Oil - main 2302(CLmain)$ up 1.4% to nearly $84.
For a detailed interpretation of this CPI fluctuation, see Dec CPI released, that's why Elon Musk is perssimistic from @MaverickTiger
The following, i would like to think about wether the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ can sucesfully break through the 200-DMA, as this means a lot to long positions.
【5 Charts to analysis the current Market】
After the release of the data, the performance of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was relatively stable, as the data were in line with market expectations.
While On December 13, the November CPI's rise range lower than the expectations, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose in a straight line before the market, but closed down and follows a 5 days drop after.
How will this time the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ tend to perform？
From the perspective of technical analysis, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also come to a key area -- the 200DMA(point at 3,984) again. Previously, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hit the 200DMA in March, April, August, and November of 2022 for 4 times, especially the previous 3 times all turned fail finally.
D candle chart of SPX
Whether $S&P 500(.SPX)$ can successfully stand on the key point of 200DMA in the near future may have positive significance for the confidence in the future trend.
Take a closer look, the recent MACDs are relatively more attractive (bonded) after a period of sorting out. The MACD is also more positive in terms of kinetic energy. The 2hrs trend candle also shows $S&P 500(.SPX)$ covering the previous down gap.
Personally, I would like to be more bullish in short-term.
2hr-trend of SPX
From the perspective of sentiment and the macro environment, the trends of US10Y, VIX, and DXY may also provide some comprehensive guidance for the next short-term trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . Please refer to the comparison in the chart below from Tradingview.
From a sentiment point of view: $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed at 18.83, its lowest level since April 4, however, by comparison, the trend of S&P and VIX is completely opposite.
From a macro perspective: the trend of the U.S. dollar index $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is also opposite to that of U.S. stocks. The performance of U.S. bond yields in the early 10 is also the opposite of that of U.S. stocks.
So, do you have and more clear mind of the current market? Is time for the bulls to party or is Calm before the storm?
If SPX will break through 200DMA, the short-term pressure of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ will be above 4030.
And on this Friday, we will focus on the earnings data of bank stocks.
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