Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

Gold: The Short-Term Structure On September 28, with gold trading around $4,228.615, down approximately 0.06%, my short-term view was bearish. Central-bank gold purchases and concerns about U.S. government debt remained longer-term sources of support, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields were exerting more immediate pressure on gold.$微型10年美債收益率主連 2609(10Ymain)$ $微型30年美債收益率主連 2610(30Ymain)$ $30年美債主連 2612(ZBmain)$ $10年美債主連 2612(ZNmain)$ On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a swing high near 4,318, then made a series of lower high

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

THE FED DECISION IS OUT! The Fed shocked the world today.Rates have been cut by 50 bps. It marked the first Fed decision since 2005 with a Fed member dissenting.What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut? @MaverickWealthBuilder Rate Cut Trading 2｜landing or crashing？ how to grasp the interest rate cut cycle！ @Tiger_Academy Here’s a visual overview of the Fed Funds Rate, including the latest cut:@carbonfinancexThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rises to a new all time high after the Fed surprise

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some potential stocks with you! Hope it can help u!The stocks are as follow:$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2401(10Ymain)$ 10-Year Yield back with an vengeance? If so, it would be a headwind for equities.Image $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ "Nothing goes up in a straight line" JPM: Hold my beerImage $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Things that make you go hmmmImage $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Insiders securing their bag.Image $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ The Nasdaq just closed its fifth red day in a row, its longest losing streak in over a year!Image

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The day ended with an invalidation of the shooting star seen on Wednesday, the candle is neutral, worth noting that when price bounced at the 5 DMA. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ look bouncy, a red morning is possible for indexes, but either bull or bear case have to be confirmed as follows: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bull: Overcoming 4520 $S&P 500(.SPX)$Bear: Breaking the 5DMA $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ : The close looks more bullish, $Micro 10-Year

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some technical analysis with you! Hope it can help you!The stocks are as follow:Called it! KABOOM . Projected price target of 184 hit precisely on $Apple(AAPL)$ . Fantastic!ImageImageCalled it! KABOOM 325 hit precisely on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . SUPERB! ImageImagePotential bearish shark pattern developing on $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2311(10Ymain)$ . Target 3.261%ImageButterfly pattern in development on $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ . First target 11.40ImagePotential butterfly pattern developing on $DJIA(.DJI)$ . Projected price