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avatarAhGong
34分钟前
Alphabet shares tumbled more than 8% Wednesday, less than a day after new AI tools announced by Microsoft boosted Wall Street's confidence in search engine Bing's ability to take share from Google. On Wednesday, Alphabet held its own event, geared toward its new artificial intelligence chatbot known as Bard. The events from the competing technology giants come as the race to build the next big artificial intelligence innovation heats up in the wake of ChatGPT's showstopping launch. While capturing share could take time to settle in, analysts are bullish that those gains will come long term. @Daily_Discussion 
avatarStickyRice
34分钟前
Affirm’s Exclusivity Period With Amazon Expires. More Competition Could Be a Worry. A deal between Affirm Holdings $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ and Amazon $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ to be the sole provider of buy now, pay later services on the e-commerce website expired. The agreement, reached in 2021, had a period of exclusivity until Jan. 31, 2023, where Amazon (AMZN) wouldn’t make “other closed-end installment loan products and services by certain competitors of Affirm” available to shoppers. Under the terms of the agreement, Affirm (AFRM) will continue to offer its services on Amazon’s website until 2025. After that, the companies can agree to extend the deal or not. The end of the exclusivity period has raised concern with one analyst. “I think a lot of people are worried about more competition,” Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev told Barron’s. PayPal (PYPL) and Block (SQ) are among Affirm’s competitors in the space. In November, Affirm posted a worse-than-expected loss of 86 cents a share on revenue of $362 million for its fiscal first quarter. The company is set to report second-quarter financial results on Feb. 8 after the market close. Affirm has other deals similar to the one with Amazon, including an exclusive partnership with online travel company Kayak announced last week.
avatarluv2trade
37分钟前
Lumen Technologies — Shares fell 22.5% after the cloud network data company reported a fourth-quarter loss of about $3.1 billion. Its earnings guidance for the year also came in below StreetAccount estimates. Alphabet — Shares of Google's parent company dropped 7.5% after the company held an event to show off its new artificial intelligence chatbot called Bard, one day after competitor Microsoft held an event to show off AI technologies in its competing search engine. CVS Health — CVS Health gained 4.6% after the company surpassed profit and sales expectations in its latest quarterly results. The pharmacy operator reported earnings of $1.99 per share on revenue of $83.8 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv were forecasting earnings of $1.92 per share on revenue of $76.21 billion. Separately, CVS Health said it would acquire primary care company Oak Street Health in a transaction valued at $10.6 billion. Fortinet — The cybersecurity company jumped 10.8% after it beat analysts' earnings expectations for the most recent quarter. Fortinet posted earnings of 44 cents per share, while analysts expected 39 cents per share, according to StreetAccount. @Daily_Discussion 
avataronlyYou
55分钟前
U.S markets finally got the Fed's message. Two officials on Wednesday essentially echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on Tuesday. The Fed's Waller warned that the fight against inflation might be a drawn-out process, "with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting." Likewise, New York Fed President John Williams said that monetary policy could turn even tighter than the central bank had anticipated. Investors paid attention. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.68%. The S&P 500 slid 1.11%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.61%. Markets were also battered by a disappointing earnings season: 42 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative guidance earnings for the first quarter of 2023, according to Refinitiv — a higher proportion than the historical average. Though unrelated to earnings, Google-parent Alphabet shares tumbled more than 7% Wednesday, after investors were disappointed by the company's demonstration of Bard. They were, perhaps, also concerned after Google released an advertisement for Bard, in which it gave the wrong answer to a prompt about the James Webb Space Telescope. In a wave of downbeat news, investors may indeed need a telescope to find some good news in the near term. @Daily_Discussion 
avatarHard to invest
55分钟前

Disney will undergo major restructuring

Last night $Walt Disney(DIS)$ announced its latest financial results, in which the company announced a major restructuring and plans to cut 7,000 jobs in order to achieve cost savings of about $5.5 billion. The new structure will be divided into three core divisions: Entertainment, Parks, and ESPN, and the company also plans to cut $2.5 billion in costs in its non-content businesses. It's worth noting that the restructuring is designed to help the company better achieve profitability in its streaming business, and the company has reaffirmed its commitment to achieve that goal by 2024. The company said it will no longer provide long-term subscriber forecasts in its earnings report. News of the restructuring and layoffs had a positive impact on Disney's stock price, which rose 8.1% after hours, indicating that the market is confident in the company's future prospects. Finally, I think Disney's restructuring shows that the company is trying to transform itself to adapt to changes in the market. Layoffs and cost reductions may have an impact on employees, but if the company can achieve its goals, it will be a move that will benefit the company going forward. The market reaction to this restructuring shows that the company is making the right decision. @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MaverickTiger 
Disney will undergo major restructuring
Best Stock Market Quotes "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - George Soros According to investment gurus It's more important to win big and cut losses when you are wrong Rather than to obsess with being right Especially when gains are small.

Current market risk and what we have to consider

I remember last year I said before the end of the third quarter that I thought the fourth quarter would rebound, and one of the indicators I observed was JP Morgan's Global Risk Index, but of course this is not the only indicator I refer to, I have other indicators and data plus my personal experience. Although I can't confidently say that the market is going to fall again, I think that with the second chart, it may be impossible not to be vigilant. The second chart is a reference to the current risk appetite index of the market investors, the current risk appetite is optimistic, in fact, this indicator is similar to the panic and greed index, only with different data. In fact, I personally am not optimistic about the market after the end of February, but I think the first quarter of this year is generally still up, but in the second quarter I think the market will have a more obvious pullback, of course I can not estimate how big the market pullback, just like last year I was optimistic about the rebound, but I still misjudged the magnitude of the rebound. I think it is not bad to be cautious buying an insurance policy after all, I suggest that the hedge will be hedged, the beginning of the reduction of holdings, of course, good stocks can still continue to hold. @MaverickTiger @CaptainTiger @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion 
Current market risk and what we have to consider
$S&P 500(.SPX)$  US equities slide on hawkish interest rate commentary · A selloff in tech stocks weighed heavily on sentiment in US markets on Wednesday, with the most-recent string of Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the idea that interest rates will need to keep climbing to crush inflation. · Their tone was unmistakably intended to weigh against risk-friendly interpretations of Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday. · The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 208 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 declined 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.7%. The Nasdaq was weighed down by an 7.4% fall for Google parent Alphabet after a technology glitch on its new artificial intelligence software disappointed investors. · There may be more clarity on the Fed’s next move with the publication of consumer price index, retail and inflation data next week. A leading indicator of inflation for the last year has been 1-year inflation expectations as reported by the University of Michigan. A reading for that print will be out on Friday for February preliminary numbers. Friday’s print is forecast to show a modest uptick for 1-year expectations. · Equities in Europe gave up early gains as US markets headed lower. The benchmark Stoxx 600 finished 0.3% higher, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, hitting an intraday record high before easing back. Separately, the European Central Bank said it would cut the maximum rate it paid on government deposits to encourage investors to put their money in the market. · In Asia, the Hang Seng index closed flat, down less than 0.1%, while the Chinese CSI 300 fell 0.4%. Straits Times Index inched up 0.2%. DYODD @TigerStars 
avatarRon18
13:23
$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$  Sachin Mittal of DBS Group Research has raised his target price for Singapore Telecommunications to $3.18 from $3.15, on projections that the telco will be able to improve its return on invested capital (ROIC) in the coming two years. “Singtel’s share price has demonstrated a positive correlation of 89% with its ROIC, implying when the ROIC performs better, the share price inches up,” writes Mittal in his Feb 9 note. ROIC is measured using a company’s profitability as the percentage of total capital employed, which is a combination of book value and net debt. Back in May 2020, Singtel’s share price dropped by 26% to $2.50, which was then the telco’s ROIC dropped from 8% to 5% because of weakened core business and lower contributions from the regional associates. At this level, Singtel’s ROIC was below its weighted average cost of capital, which was at 6.5%. “The WACC of a company often acts as a breaking point for the ROIC resulting in a significant movement of the stock price,” observes Mittal. Mittal projects Singtel’s ROIC to increase by 190 basis points over the next two years, led by a sharp recovery in its associate in India, Bharti. Other factors contributing to the lift include further divestment of non-core assets, and also the recovery in mobile roaming revenue across the region. In addition, Singtel might enjoy potential catalysts in the form of special dividends to be dished out over the coming two years. This will be on top of the 14.5 cents in regular dividends expected, which implies a yield of 5.7%.

My view of FEDs rate future

The Fed’s terminal interest rate futures are higher than a week ago. Not only that, the speed of interest rate cut expectations has also been delayed by almost three months compared to the previous week. It fell back to 4.5%, but this expectation has been delayed, and it will not be seen until March 2024. I remember that I shared my views on inflation in the United States and other mature economies last year. For all mature economies whose inflation once exceeded 5%, it is a very difficult and unbearable path for inflation to return to 2%. This process includes rising unemployment, falling wages, weak or even losses in corporate profits, and a decline in the new order index. But so far, I don't think the situation is as expected by the Fed or the market. Although the data I have seen for the time being is somewhat mixed, I haven't seen a signal that the Fed needs to cut interest rates first. Imagination is much longer, and don’t forget that the Fed is always half a beat or even a beat behind the economic data. Maybe the data will really weaken by then, but the Fed officials choose not to believe it, and continue to observe. The market does not believe it. It takes time to ferment the decision-making, and as a result, more potential risks that were not necessary to bear will be exposed one by one. At that time, I think the current market rebound may also come to an end, especially if the market finds out that it is mispriced, then it may be even more powerful if it has risen so high before. $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger 
My view of FEDs rate future

DBS raises Singtel's target price to $3.18 on higher ROIC

Sachin Mittal of DBS Group Research has raised his target price for $SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$ Singapore Telecommunications to $3.18 from $3.15, on projections that the telco will be able to improve its return on invested capital (ROIC) in the coming two years. “Singtel’s share price has demonstrated a positive correlation of 89% with its ROIC, implying when the ROIC performs better, the share price inches up,” writes Mittal in his Feb 9 note. ROIC is measured using a company’s profitability as the percentage of total capital employed, which is a combination of book value and net debt. Back in May 2020, Singtel’s share price dropped by 26% to $2.50, which was then the telco’s ROIC dropped from 8% to 5% because of weakened core business and lower contributions from the regional associates. At this level, Singtel’s ROIC was below its weighted average cost of capital, which was at 6.5%. “The WACC of a company often acts as a breaking point for the ROIC resulting in a significant movement of the stock price,” observes Mittal. Mittal projects Singtel’s ROIC to increase by 190 basis points over the next two years, led by a sharp recovery in its associate in India, Bharti. Other factors contributing to the lift include further divestment of non-core assets, and also the recovery in mobile roaming revenue across the region. In addition, $SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$ Singtel might enjoy potential catalysts in the form of special dividends to be dished out over the coming two years. This will be on top of the 14.5 cents in regular dividends expected, which implies a yield of 5.7%. @Daily_Discussion  @TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @Tiger_chat  @CaptainTiger 
DBS raises Singtel's target price to $3.18 on higher ROIC
Do not buy on news release.
GM to make $650M equity investment in Lithium Americas, co-develop Thacker Pass Lithium Americas $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$  announcing with General Motors $General Motors(GM)$  they will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, the largest known source of lithium in the U.S. GM (GM) will make a $650M equity investment in Lithium Americas (LAC), which the companies say represents the largest-ever investment by an automaker to produce battery raw materials. Lithium Americas (LAC) has estimated the lithium extracted and processed from the project can support production of as many as 1M electric vehicles per year. GM (GM) said it will use the lithium carbonate from Thacker Pass in its proprietary Ultium battery cells. "The agreement with GM is a major milestone in moving Thacker Pass toward production, while setting a foundation for the separation of our U.S. and Argentine businesses," Lithium Americas (LAC) President and CEO Jonathan Evans said.

Thoughts about FED terminal fund rate path

Not only is the Fed's terminal rate futures higher than a week ago, but the pace of expected rate cuts has been delayed by almost three months from the previous week, meaning that the market expects the Fed to bring the terminal rate back down to 4.5% in December before the end of the year, for example, but this expectation has now been delayed and will not be seen until March of 2024. I remember sharing my views on inflation in the U.S. and other mature economies last year. In any mature economy where inflation was once above 5%, it is a very difficult and challenging process to get back to 2%, including high unemployment, falling wages, weak corporate profits or even losses, and falling new order indexes. But so far, I think the situation is not as expected by the Fed or the market, although the data we have seen for the time being is somewhat mixed, but we do not see the need for the Fed to take the lead in cutting interest rates, so this round of rate hikes I think is definitely much longer than we thought, and do not forget that the Fed is always half a beat or even a beat slower than the economic data, maybe then the data really turned weak, but the Fed Officials choose not to believe, but also continue to observe, the market does not believe, in the monetary decision to implement and need time to ferment, resulting in more potential risks originally unnecessary to bear will be exposed one by one. At that time, the current market rebound I think may also be over, especially if the market found the wrong pricing, then it may have risen much higher, fell back down also more powerful. @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MaverickTiger 
Thoughts about FED terminal fund rate path

Uber: Another solid quarter!

$Uber(UBER)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$  Uber announced impressive results for the fourth quarter of 2022, boasting a record-breaking performance in mobility and exceeding Wallstreet’s expectations in terms of EBITDA! 4Q Earnings summary Uber recorded $30.7 billion in gross bookings (GB), a year-over-year increase of 26% on a constant currency basis. This is a slightly slower growth compared to the 32% growth seen in the previous quarter, but nonetheless largely in line with expectations and at the higher end of the company's guidance of $30-$31 billion. Record Mobility Gross Bookings! Mobility came in at $14.9 billion, representing a 37% year-over-year increase in gross bookings on a constant currency basis. Mobility Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MPAC) exceeding 100 million (17% y/y) and trips up 24% y/y. The number of trips per MAPC increased to 5.4 per month, compared to 5 at the end of 2021. Additionally, Uber saw all-time highs in active mobility drivers and noted that its new upfront pricing display has had strong traction. This trend has continued into January 2023. This growth has helped the company solidify Uber position in the Mobility market globally, particularly in the United States where its position is now at its highest point in six years. Uber's alternative mobility portfolio (such as reserve, shared rides, micro-mobility, car rentals, and car-sharing) also saw strong growth, contributing $6B of annualized GBs, or approximately 10% of total mobility GBs. Delivery: Steady Pom Pi Pi amid macro challenges Delivery reached $14.3 billion, growing steadily at 14% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, Uber's Delivery segment has remained resilient and even accelerated slightly from its growth in the previous quarter. The company has also improved its position in the Delivery market in many of its major markets. Uber is starting to reap the benefits of its scale across markets and will continue to increase its market share compared to smaller, less established players, especially given that its One service has 12 million members and accounts for 40% of Delivery gross bookings in the US. Disciplined Cost Control 4Q EBITDA of $665 million exceeded the high end of its guidance ($600-$630 million) due to stronger than expected margins in both Mobility (6.8%) and Delivery (1.7%). Uber has demonstrated a strong commitment to cost control, which contributed to the positive EBITDA results! Strong 1Q23 guidance Uber has guided that its first quarter gross bookings to be between $31B-$32B, which is a 20% to 24% increase year-over-year, slightly below consensus estimate. However, Uber's guidance for first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $660M-$700M is approximately 10% higher than the consensus estimates of $616M. Additionally, Uber is expected to achieve its first quarterly GAAP operating profitability in 2023, outpacing other on-demand players! Final thoughts Uber’s strong year-over-year growth, high profitability in Mobility, improvement in Delivery, and focus on profits and free cash flow evident in the numbers are all positive signs for investors. Overall, I find these strong results and positive outlook make Uber shine like a diamond amid the Tech Winter downcycle! As usual, I am only sharing the company's result and my thoughts about it. Please do not take it as trading advice and do your carefuldue diligence before investing. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion 
Uber: Another solid quarter!
Southwest Airlines Co.'s chief operating officer on Thursday is expected to face questions from lawmakers over the airline's December meltdown, while reiterating confidence in efforts to improve its operations. After a winter storm threw its operation into disarray, Southwest canceled over 16,700 flights over a roughly 10-day period at the end of last year in one of the worst airline disruptions in recent years, a debacle that the company says could end up costing it over $1 billion. The meltdown angered thousands of customers, strained the company's relations with employees and has made the airline -- which prides itself on a reputation for customer service -- the butt of late-night television jokes, including a sketch on Saturday Night Live last month. It has also galvanized lawmakers and regulators who have long sought stricter consumer protection measures for air travel. Southwest Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson plans to apologize on Thursday when he addresses the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and to try to reassure lawmakers that the airline won't experience another similar incident, according to his prepared remarks. "Let me be clear: we messed up. In hindsight, we did not have enough winter operational resilience," he plans to say in prepared testimony viewed by The Wall Street Journal. "Please know that with the mitigations we have in place, we are confident in our flight network and the schedules we have published for sale." Chief Executive Bob Jordan had a conflict and wouldn't be able to attend the hearing, according to Southwest. Capt. Casey Murray, the president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, said the roots of the disruption go back long before the December storm, and are evidence of a deeper malaise within the company. In his prepared remarks for Thursday's hearing, he said that the airline has ignored the union's warnings about its outdated scheduling practices and technology, citing what he described as a yearslong pattern of operational failures, poor management decisions, and underinvestment. In December, "managers' overconfidence in their planning and a systemic failure to provide modern tools to employees doomed SWA's recovery before the first snowflake hit the ground," he plans to tell the committee. As travel demand has bounced back from the Covid-19 pandemic, airlines' stumbles have frustrated regulators and lawmakers, who have called for new measures that would penalize airlines for schedule disruptions and compensate consumers. The Transportation Department is investigating whether Southwest set itself up to fail with an unrealistic schedule over the holidays. Southwest has said it is fully staffed and was prepared for the busy holiday season. The trigger for the meltdown was a severe winter storm that swept across the country before Christmas. As temperatures plummeted, fuel turned to sludge, jet bridges froze, and workers could only be outside for short periods. Other airlines contended with the same challenges, but Southwest struggled to right itself while rivals recovered within a few days. By Dec. 26, Southwest's operation was spiraling, and the airline slashed nearly two-thirds of its schedule for three days to reset itself. In his prepared remarks, Mr. Watterson describes how worse-than-anticipated weather in Denver and Chicago -- two of the airline's largest airports and cities where about a quarter of its flight crews begin their trips -- set off a cascade of unplanned cancellations that Southwest couldn't recover from. The debacle has raised questions about the pace of Southwest's investment in technology and core elements of its business model, including its point-to-point route network. Mr. Watterson acknowledged those concerns in his prepared remarks, but said Southwest's operation had been strong for months before the meltdown, and said the airline is confident that it can manage disruptions now. Southwest has said that the disruption revealed an unforeseen gap in a system it uses to reschedule crews following disruptions -- something the airline is now working to rectify. Executives, including Mr. Watterson said the software did not break down, but wasn't able to keep up with the volume of last-minute changes as Southwest canceled more and more flights. As a result, it was trying to pair pilots and flight attendants with new flights based on outdated information, exacerbating the quagmire. The airline had to resort to manual processes to repair its schedules, a tedious and time-consuming process. Southwest is in the process of testing an update to that system with General Electric Co., the provider, that Southwest has said will let it use the software to clean up past problems -- something it wasn't previously designed to do. Mr. Watterson said that will equip Southwest to better handle recovery from mass cancellations. He said the airline is also working to improve the tools it uses to communicate with crews and has implemented procedures that will help it more quickly see when things are going wrong and respond. The airline is also conducting a review with Oliver Wyman, an outside aviation consulting firm, and its board has formed an operations review committee. The airline said it plans to spend $1.3 billion on investments and upgrades to its IT infrastructure, work that Mr. Watterson said will be informed by the reviews.