10Y Treasury Yield Surge! Time to Sell Put of TLT?

The US stock and bond markets faced another setback on Wednesday as the growth rate of U.S. retail sales doubled from the previous month, further cooling expectations of an interest rate cut. Currently, traders have reduced the probability of a rate cut in March to about 50%. The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.2 basis points to 4.107%. ------------------------ With the sharp rise in bond yields, is it a good time to sell put TLT?

avatarkoolgal
01-21
๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸ$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ versus $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  : Which is Better? I believe that  in a diversified portfolio both TLT and SPY ETFs balances each other like Yin and Yang.   With the much anticipated interest rate cuts by the Feds, TLT would flourish as bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates.  Similarly SPY would also enjoy an increase as lower interest rates mean that the US companies have lower debt costs.  Growth companies like $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  $C3.ai, Inc.(AI
@MillionaireTiger:TLT Has More Room To Run: Is TLT a Superior Choice Over the S&P 500?

TLT Has More Room To Run: Is TLT a Superior Choice Over the S&P 500?

The $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ has weathered years of volatility, plummeting from $160 to $80 in less than two years, only to rebound to $100.57. While the recent upswing has delivered considerable returns to investors, there's substantial room for further growth, especially when compared to the $S&P 500(.SPX)$, which is nearing historical highs.Given the potential challenges posed by increasing interest expenses and assumed economic downturn, TLT is poised for gains in the medium term.Why TLT Over S&P 500? With a 40% drop from all-time highs, investing in long-bonds over the S&P 500 is a better choice, currently perceived as significantly overvalued in the aftermath of a recessi
TLT Has More Room To Run: Is TLT a Superior Choice Over the S&P 500?
avatarKok
01-19
I would still sell put options of $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ but it makes sense to lower the strike price now. Recovery is seldom in a straight line, expect ups n downs
I would sell a OTM put option on TLT for sure...If I wasn't selling a put on NEM instead. I think it's basically the same bet, but NEM has some other bullish catalysts that make this recent pullback very enticing as an investor.
not trading options. a long way to go to average down on $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$. patience is a virtue. if anyone is in the same boat, yell out in solidarity โœŠ
avatarhd87
01-19
I will look at the premium first before deciding to sell put of TLT during the crash. The rate cut may happen in March or some time later.
avatarDiAngel
01-18
Replying to @DiAngel:Hard and not high.. ๐Ÿคฆโ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿ˜“โ€ฆ not under the influence of alcohol ๐Ÿพ๐Ÿฅ‚๐Ÿบ๐Ÿฅƒ๐Ÿธ๐Ÿน๐Ÿท while writing this post ๐Ÿ˜‚//@DiAngel:I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan โ€œsell in may and go away, but remember come back in septemberโ€ might come true. Ie rate cut in May. ๐Ÿ˜‡๐Ÿคญ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ™ Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. ๐Ÿคซ๐Ÿซฃ๐Ÿคญ Today Tbill is very disappointing ๐Ÿฅบ๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ญ
avatarDiAngel
01-18
I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan โ€œsell in may and go away, but remember come back in septemberโ€ might come true. Ie rate cut in May. ๐Ÿ˜‡๐Ÿคญ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ™ Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. ๐Ÿคซ๐Ÿซฃ๐Ÿคญ Today Tbill is very disappointing ๐Ÿฅบ๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ญ
Not a financial guy .I really dun know how to understand this theroy or concept how these affect stock market
yes surge for more volatility
i guess too early to tell, Fed probably looking at data and deciding if they should cut, pause... I'll be doing the wait and see approach till things are certain... @DiAngel @LMSunshine @koolgal @GoodLife99 @Universeๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ @rL @xXxZealandxXx @Shyon @Aqa Would you sell put of TLT during the crash?
avatarMHh
01-18
Replying to @MHh: @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @SR050321 @AliceSam @rL @HelenJanet @Fenger1188 @Kaixiang @Universeๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ come join//@MHh:When will rate cut be is anybodyโ€™s guess. The data keeps fluctuat
avatarMHh
01-18
When will rate cut be is anybodyโ€™s guess. The data keeps fluctuating..will prefer to continuously average down on good stocks because eventually the rate cut will come. I dont like bonds hahaโ€ฆ so no.. wont try to get it whether as a stock or option
can sell puts, but buy tlt better. guarantee go up. if not enough cash, can use options to do a bullish synthetic to "buy" tlt. sell a put option, and buy a call at same strike, when you see a bullish uptrend signal.
No surge is still indicate the market is still seeing Fed will maintain interest hike. Good luck. I just invested T bill

10Y Treasury yield surged! Rate cut in mid-year?

Affected by lower rate cut expectations, 10Y Treasury yield surpassed 4% on Wednesday.In December, US retail sales rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month, exceeding estimates of 0.4% and doubling the November increase of 0.3%.The comprehensive data indicates robust demand of consumption during the holiday season. Many traders have further retreated from betting on rate cut in March.Analyst from BlackRock commented, "I believe the current data is not sufficient to give the Fed confidence to cut rates in the short term. The rate cut may occur later in the year than in March."However, the surge also means higher premium of $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ put options.Would you sell put of TLT during the crash?How do you view the rate cut
10Y Treasury yield surged! Rate cut in mid-year?
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ BAGHOLDERS!Hot inflation, going back up. No cuts. No recession, soft landing, strong job market.I told ya, TLT is DEAD MONEY.BAGHOLDERS with excuses! Bulls cant take it no mo!Higher for Longer and Longer for Higher!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Raise your hand if you bought the Ten and locked in to Four Percent for Ten Years? Not that I believe. The awards are almost all foreign buyers. Results to me displayed a thin amount of US buyers. Therefore, TLT trades after hours are also mostly foreign buyers?
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Still leaning a little bullish but not feeling great about it. Stuff like the RSI don't strike me as overbought, and MACD and Bollinger bands look like they're already stretched to the downside. And I see so much negative news on bonds on social media. In part because of inflation scares, which are justified. Sooooo... I feel bonds climb a wall of worry or something like that. It just feels like that kind of a setup.