The article by Ray Dalio on LinkedIn titled "What's Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration" discusses the anticipated changes in policy and approach under a second Trump administration. Here are the key points: Domestic Policy Reforms: Trump's approach is likened to a corporate raider executing a hostile takeover, aiming for efficiency and productivity in government operations. This includes significant changes in personnel, reduction of costs, and integration of new technologies. The focus will be on industrial policies to enhance productivity, potentially at the expense of environmental concerns, poverty alleviation, and social equity issues like diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Economic and Financial Policies: There will be a push towards bu

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (18Nov24) Notable Highlights S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. The last update came in at 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to expand following a strong previous showing at 55.0. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a good reflection of the manufacturing sector. Existing Home Sales is a good reference for real estate’s health. Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy. Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the tren

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Someone explain market movements. If a company has strong earnings, raises guidance , breaking profit records, breaking analysts expectations , why does the stock go down dramatically, if it’s in an industry such as retail, cloud, and AI ? Why a $10 drop.Such was 2021 to 2022 when AMZN was $185 and fell to $80 as the NAZ did the same thing that year was 16,000 fell 6000 points to 10,000. Now banks, airlines, oil, all went down with the market, yet AMZN continued to grow and make money while losing 100 points makes no sense[Lovely][Lovely][Lovely]

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 18Nov24 Observations: The MACD indicator is about to complete a top crossover. This implies a potential downtrend coming up. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. Both MA50 and MA200 lines are below the last candle. Thus, it could be read as bullish for both the mid and the long-term. The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are on an uptrend but looks to converge soon. This implies a potential change of the current trend. Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows a downtrend. This implies more selling momentum than buying. The CMF seems to be moving sideways - applying similar momentum by both buyers and sellers. From the 18 indicators, 9 point to a “Buy” rating (using daily intervals) and 9 point to a “Sell” rati

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consumer demand. Initial joble

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (04Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched event of the coming week will be the US presidential election. The results will likely affect American and global sentiment towards business and the conflicts in the various regions. With presidential candidate Trump promising to end the conflict quickly, this should bring some relief to the market though the defense industry should suffer. The next most important news will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due on Thursday night US time. The general forecast is looking at a 25-basis point cut. The recent inflation data from PCE would leave the Fed with some consideration as inflation remains s

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Oct24) Notable Highlights The most important macro data of the coming week would be the core PCE price index. This is the preferred indicator used by the Federal Reserve coming to inflation. If the figure remains heightened, may be required to review their coming interest rate decisions. There are a few important job-related data that will be released, starting with JOLTS job openings which reported 8.04 million jobs in the previous report. The other important job-related data will include the ADP non-farm employment change, average hour earnings, nonfarm payrolls for October, and unemployment rates. These figures would be part of the consideration by the Fed

My Investing Muse (04Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Surprise, surprise…   August jobs revised: 159K to 78K (-81k)   Sept jobs revised: 254K to 223K (-31k) Chevron Corp. indicated potential US job cuts as part of a new cost-cutting plan. - LiveMint Manulife Financial has cut hundreds of jobs in its global wealth and asset management business, representing about 2.5 per cent of the division’s staff. - Business Times Publicis Groupe to lay off up to 200 employees at its digital agencies The holding company let go of more than 100 people at its media shops last week - Adage Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Lays Off 87 Workers in Restructuring Effort - The Crimson Intel's biggest revenue decline in five quarters to hit amid broad layoffs and missed AI boom - Calcalistech Dropbox

News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) Image Spending within our means is basic prudence. It's not just about what is accomplished but how it is managed. What we need is a realistic mix of news so that we can best navigate and take advantage of the different opportunities presented. Image The average American household spends $270 a week on Groceries - X user Visual Capitalist Supply chain has always benefited from global crisis. Coming to first principal, we must be ready to change on my when a different set of key information is presented. Thank you The All in Podcast and Chamath Container ships continue to line up outside Canada’s busiest import gateway as carriers wait for a lockout of union longshore employees to end. - FreightWaves The mortgage rate has risen by nearly 1% sinc

Commercial Real Estate Crisis? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 9.4% in October, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has now risen by 5 TIMES over the last 2 years. Delinquencies are officially rising at a pace only seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to surpass an all-time high of 10.3% seen in July 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.0%, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The commercial real estate crisis is real. X user The Kobeissi Letter Can the wheels come off the CMBS soon? This should be owned by the current administration. Other News: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after th

News and my thoughts from last week (28Oct24) Should we treat this as a concern for Bank of America and the bigger banking sector after Berkshire dumps $10 Billion worth of shares? - DaiyHODL Credit ratings agency Moody's revised France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, over mounting uncertainty that the country will be able to curb widening budget deficits, but maintained its rating on French debt at Aa2. - Reuters In the first nine months of this year, 60 non-standard products tied to LGFVs have defaulted or warned of repayment risks, up 20% from the same period last year, according to data compiled by Financial China Information & Technology. - Business Times AWS CEO on AI & Energy: "If you think about these generative AI models... estimates suggest that in two to

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (21Oct24) Notable Highlights Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales figures will update us on the real estate market. S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was 47.3 previously. A figure of under 50 indicates a contraction. Are we able to see a rebound in the manufacturing sector? S&P Global US services PMI was 55.2 previously. This implies growth in the services sector. Will this sector continues its growth? Durable Goods Orders contracted by 0.9% previously. Investopedia defines Durable Goods as: new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. Will this be good news for

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!China’s GDP has grown 13 times since 2001Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its GDP has increased 13-fold (Chart 2). However, the Shanghai Composite Index has grown by only 1-fold (Chart 3). In contrast, during this same period, U.S. GDP has grown 2.6-fold (Chart 1), while the Dow Jones has increased more than 4- fold. Will China’s stock market eventually catch up with its GDP growth? Chart 1 Source: TradingView Chart 2 Source: TradingView China’s GDP grew the most when the world entered the Covid lockdown While the rest of the world was in lockdown, with most of us working from home and shopping online, China’s manufacturers were supplying global demand. As shown in Chart 2, China’s GDP experienced it