Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY back to back once again. Let’s get ready for the most crucial CPI data report follow by Fed’s decision to hike or pause interest rate next Tuesday and Wednesday respectively 💪 Economic data during the week gave some strength to the Fed pause narrative. The Institute for Supply Management's gauge of U.S. services activity nearly showed a stagnation for May, while factory orders for April rose less than expected. Moreover, initial jobless claims surged to their highest level since October 2021. The data pointed towards signs of cooling in the economy while also suggesting that cracks had begun to show in the highly resilient labor market.  The benchmark index closed up 0.6% to 4,294 on Thursday, vaulting it back into bull

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The White House warns of a potential stock market crash exceeding 45% in the event of a US Debt default. As the debt crisis continue to brew, the stock market now stays at a high level since Aug. of 2022. There are several dangerous signs of a possible pullback of broader market.Risk 1: Debt default may cause a 45% market crash?Analysts warn of more volitility in stock market.Back in 2011, the two parties in the United States reached a compromise at the last minute to avoid a debt default, leading to the first-ever downgrade of the U.S. Treasuries credit rating by Standard & Poor's.Some strategists warn that the stock market may experience volatility before June 1, the so-called “X-day.”Currently, as the deadline approaches, stock market investors do not appear to b

On a macro level, there were two major events in the past week that gave investors further confidence. Firstly, the market believes that the Fed will pause its rate hikes in June and has received corresponding information from FOMC members. Powell's dovish stance is based on credit tightening caused by the banking crisis, which has to some extent already had a contractionary effect, thus supporting expectations of lower peak interest rates than previously anticipated. As a result, the market reacted strongly with US bond yields rising and USD exchange rates strengthening.However, pausing rate hikes in June does not mean they will stop altogether as other officials have expressed support for continuing them. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that inflation may be more sticky than what mar

If you have been following the news, there have been a lot of public engagements for the Fed’s tip official. One thing that I observe is there have been an intensifying debate going on whether to continue the hike again or pause at the upcoming June meeting. 2 different camp of thoughts I personally feel that as investors we would need to prepare our strategy around how to be able to continue to trade whichever direction it might go. Concerned that inflation is not cooling fast enough Some officials are concerned inflation is not cooling fast enough. This one I can understand that as we are still pretty far from the 2%. This is my argument, if previous rate hike is showing the results over the past few months. What we do not want to ride on the momentum to continue to bring inflation down

Markets revise expectations for Fed's anticipated pause in June, future rate cuts $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  Market participants have recalibrated their expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, data showed on Friday. The debt ceiling standoff and talks between congressional leaders to reach an agreement have taken over the spotlight this week, but the future of the Fed's monetary policy remains very much on investors' minds. According to the CME FedWatch tool, up till even a week ago on May 12, markets were pricing in a nearly 30% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the FOMC's scheduled meeting in July. That probability today has dropped to zero. A slew of economic data