Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Core inflation re-accelerated but with nuanceUS October core PCE rose 2.8% y/y – still above the Fed’s 2% target – yet the month-on-month pace eased. Services inflation, driven partly by surging portfolio-management fees tied to earlier equity gains, was the key driver.Fed policy path remains the biggest wildcardThe US economy shows resilience alongside hidden cracks. Markets are increasingly focused on the $6.7 tn of Treasuries maturing in 2025–2026 (≈25% of the outstanding marketable debt). Combined with potential expansionary fiscal policy under a second Trump administration, deficit concerns are rising. CICC estimates suggest meaningful deficit reduction will be difficult in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. Any shift in Treasury issuance mix could

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:A flood of delayed economic data finally hit the markets, while clear divisions emerged inside the Fed on whether to cut rates again in December. Confidence in a "soft landing" took a hit, and US stocks swung wildly. The early "Trump trade" euphoria gave way to sober reality: the end of the government shutdown unleashed the data backlog, but the numbers were soft + Fed hawkishness escalated, completely shattering the near-certainty of a December rate cut.The Fed's policy path is now the biggest source of uncertainty. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting (released Nov 19-20) revealed obvious splits on a December move. The delayed September jobs report (finally out on Nov 20) showed weaker-than-expected payroll growth, with the unemploymen

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The dominant U.S. macro theme remains the ongoing government shutdown (now in its third week), with impacts broadening further: from disruptions to public services and data releases, to interference in financial regulation and administrative functions, creating systemic shocks to economic expectations. Layoff data has deteriorated sharply—October's job cuts reached 153,074, the highest for any month since 2003, underscoring corporate caution on future demand.With data gaps widening, the Federal Reserve is adopting an even more cautious policy stance. Hawkish comments from officials have dampened rate-cut expectations, emphasizing that in an environment of incomplete data, policy must proceed "slower and more cautiously." Ahead of the December

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Prolonged U.S. Government Shutdown Adds to Policy UncertaintyThe ongoing U.S. government shutdown has now become one of the longest on record. The policy backdrop remains characterized by a triple squeeze: loose expectations, weak macro data, and rising institutional risks. Although the Fed still has room to cut rates, the path forward remains unclear.U.S. Economy in a “Structural Caution” PhaseEmployment remains weak and layoffs are rising, though the service sector continues to show resilience. The government shutdown has created data blind spots, complicating policy assessment. Meanwhile, trade and tariff uncertainty remain key external risks. For both policymakers and investors, the medium-term environment suggests slower growth, inflatio

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:October FOMC meeting left the door open to a rate cut but delivered a hawkish tone. Chair Jerome Powell noted that while employment-data flashes some weakness, inflation risks remain elevated — which left investors questioning the path ahead. The latest initial jobless claims (Oct 25) showed a modest softening in the labour market: the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and non-farm payrolls added only 22 k jobs, far below expectations, further supporting the Fed’s “pre-emptive” easing stance.Trade developments were intense this week. On the 25th the U.S. announced a pause in negotiations with Canada and slapped a 10% tariff, stoking concerns about North American supply-chains. Meanwhile, U.S.–China talks showed movement. The Senate, however, re

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The week's macroeconomic narrative was dominated by two prominent headwinds. First, the government shutdown has led to data blackouts and heightened risks around policy implementation. Second, external risks—particularly those tied to US-China trade tensions—have re-entered the market's line of sight. Declining employment confidence signals potential further softening in consumer spending. Overall, the path to a "soft landing" for the economy feels increasingly fragile, leaving policymakers and markets alike in a holding pattern, awaiting the next data release or policy move.The Fed finds itself caught in a tug-of-war between its "eagerness for monetary easing" and the "harsh reality of shaky data." While markets are pricing in more rate cuts

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Regional banks lighting up the risk fuse again? Earnings from mid-tier players like $Zions(ZION)$ showed credit quality tanking, with bad debt rates spiking over 3%, sparking fresh panic about the whole regional banking sector. It's got echoes of the 2023 SVB meltdown, but this time the spotlight's on private credit woes—corporate defaults are climbing to 5% in this high-rate world, putting serious pressure on smaller banks' balance sheets. Add in the ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dipping to 47.2 (way below forecasts), signaling economic slowdown vibes. Markets freaked: $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ surged, gold

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The U.S. government shutdown continues to ripple through the economy. Since entering shutdown mode on October 1, select federal agencies have halted normal operations, delaying data releases and curtailing government contracts and project spending. Key economic indicators—like employment and manufacturing reports—are proving hard to release on time, reducing market visibility. That said, CPI data is still slated for release on October 24, thanks to the Labor Department recalling some staff to compile it (to avoid unduly influencing the Fed). Meanwhile, several state economies are showing contraction signals, with heavyweights like California and New York nearing inflection points.Tariff threats are reigniting tensions. Trump posted on social

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Government Shutdown Kicks Off, But Non-Farm Payrolls Might Still Drop? As of midnight on October 1, the US federal government ground to a halt after Congress failed to pass a funding bill for the new fiscal year. A bunch of federal agencies are either partially or fully offline—think stats offices pausing data dumps (like jobs reports and inflation numbers), regulatory reviews dragging their feet, and government contracts/aid programs hitting pause. With the Fed's FOMC meeting looming at the end of October, this mess is seriously fogging up the policy outlook. That said, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could still roll out September's jobs data since it's already in the bag.Job Signals Looking Shaky, Yet Stocks Keep Grinding Higher? The

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The market is reassessing rate cut expectations. Due to slightly stronger economic data (particularly employment-related indicators), the market has been forced to adjust its expectations for further rate cuts. Some participants are questioning whether the labor market is more resilient than anticipated, leading to a resurgence in the U.S. dollar's strength. The three major indices all hit weekly lows as investors worry that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate cuts. Meanwhile, technical corrections and profit-taking emerged in the market, with U.S. Treasury yields (long-end) rising, putting pressure on high-valuation tech and growth stocks.Political pressures on central bank independence, potential U.S. government shutdown, and co

Big-Tech’s Performance​Macro Headlines This Week:​​​Indices Hit New Highs Amid Increased Volatility.​​ The three major indices repeatedly set new closing records this week, with the Nasdaq performing particularly strongly, driven by tech stocks. However, due to disappointing inflation (CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year from 2.7% in July) and employment data (approximately 22,000 new jobs added, which is relatively low; the unemployment rate rose to about 4.3%, and initial jobless claims surged to 263,000), market sentiment began to diverge, and concerns about stagflation (stagnation + inflation) intensified.​​Oracle's Surge Sparks Debate Over AI Concept Hype.​​ The AI narrative received a boost from ORCL's earnings report and positive cloud service contracts, leading to a one-day surge of appr

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week: September seasonality and event-driven risks. Investors remain cautious on September’s historically weak performance — the month that has often been the worst for equities. Key events included preliminary announcements on the Russell index reconstitution, heightened sensitivity to upcoming labor market data and the Fed’s policy decision. Equity trading volumes were thin around the holiday, but tech and growth stocks led the market higher.Labor market weakness boosts rate cut expectations. ADP private payrolls added only 54k jobs (below consensus 69k). Initial jobless claims spiked to 237k (vs. 229k expected), showing persistent upward momentum and pressure in the labor market. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI climbed to 52, signaling expansio

Big-Tech’s Performance​Macro Headlines This Week: Focus on a September rate cut? Divergence in tech earnings.The Fed's "dovish pivot" has fueled market expectations. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell signaled a potential rate cut in September, seen as a policy shift, sparking global optimism about an easing cycle. The US dollar is on track for a monthly decline as markets increase bets on rate cuts. The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred gauge, is due this week. If it rises as expected, it could influence the timing of the rate cut.Trump's recent attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook are ongoing, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This adds a new risk dimension for the Fed, while markets view Powell's "dovish pivot" as still tentative.Markets continued