$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ I’m fully convinced this FOMC print is a defining pivot in the 2025 macro playbook. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, as expected, with Stephen L. Miran dissenting for a deeper 50 bps cut. This isn’t just a technical adjustment; it signals the beginning of a new policy glide path. 📌 Dot Plot & Projections The Bloomberg dot plot overlay confirms the dovish shift: 2025: 3.625% vs June’s 3.875% 2026: 3.375% vs 3.625% 2027: 3.125% (unchanged) 2028: 3.125% (new) Longer-run: 3.00% (anchored) The visual shows the dots converging lower, aligning with Fed funds futures pricin

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $ISHARES S&P MID-CAP ETF/AUS(IJH.AU)$ $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ I’m keeping this simple. The spread in forward P/E between U.S. large caps and SMID caps has blown out again. As of 26Sep25, the S&P 500 sits near 22.5× forward earnings while the S&P 400 and S&P 600 are nearer 17.1× and 16.6×. That’s a double-digit multiple premium for size rather than for quality. The Yardeni-style chart makes it obvious; large caps have rerated while SMID has not. 🧩 Why that matters The JPM data frames it perfectly: the 30-year average forward P/E is 17.0×. Today’s 22.5× means investors are paying a 30%+ premium to history. Ad

[Heart]Hello Tigers,Is the US market curently a Carnival Before the Bubble Bursts or a "Baby Bubble"?[Allin]On September 25, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower for the third consecutive day: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.38%, erasing all gains since the Federal Reserve signaled a "50bp rate cut" on September 18; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped another 0.5%, with a cumulative 1.8% decline over three days; and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ also fell 0.5%, showing obvious short-term pressure.Latest Valuation Check-Up: Big-3 Indexes & Mag-7 at a Glance:TickerLatest Price($)YTD 2025TTW P/EForward P/EAverage P/E in 10 yrsForward P/E VS. Average P/E in 10 yrs

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The market is reassessing rate cut expectations. Due to slightly stronger economic data (particularly employment-related indicators), the market has been forced to adjust its expectations for further rate cuts. Some participants are questioning whether the labor market is more resilient than anticipated, leading to a resurgence in the U.S. dollar's strength. The three major indices all hit weekly lows as investors worry that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate cuts. Meanwhile, technical corrections and profit-taking emerged in the market, with U.S. Treasury yields (long-end) rising, putting pressure on high-valuation tech and growth stocks.Political pressures on central bank independence, potential U.S. government shutdown, and co

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 📅 On 15Sep25 🇳🇿 I’m sharing my Rocket Lab gain, this will lift my total and add to the chain. From 108,869 to 108,879 in line, unrealised P&L +17.47% looks mighty fine. Bitcoin at $115,642 shows bullish art, liquidity flows prove the bulls play their part. 🌌 Breakout confirmed as $RKLB climbs high, IBD50 strength and RS touch the sky. 🚀 $RKLB breaks out of a wedge 3 months long, fundamentals and flows now carry it strong. With $754M cash and 36% YoY rise, Congress is buying while shorts close their eyes. Targets at $75 and $95 this year, trajectory points that the skies are clear. 🚨📑 $RKLB storms t

In a public speech in the early morning of September 24, 2025, Powell bluntly stated, "By many metrics, stock prices are quite high."This wasn't his first time warning about valuations, but it was the first time he used the term "quite high" after both $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ hit new all-time highs, instantly sending the question of "are US stocks expensive?" to the forefront of online search.The market also voted with its feet—the Nasdaq fell nearly 1% on the day of his speech, while AI leaders $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ both fell over 2%.1. Are They Expensive? Putting Today’s Data into a Historica

$BlackBerry(BB)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Thursday, September 25, 2025, before the market opens. Revenue: Approximately $122 million - $125 million. This is generally forecast to be a year-over-year decline (around 13-14%), reflecting macroeconomic and automotive sector challenges, despite a slight raise in full-year guidance in the previous quarter. Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share): Consensus is generally around $0.01. Summary of BlackBerry (BB) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings BlackBerry reported a strong quarter that exceeded its guidance across key financial metrics, driven by solid execution in its core software divisions. Key Highlights: QNX Momentum: The Internet of Things (IoT) division, anchored by the QNX operating syst

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The S&P 500 just clawed back from a brutal three-day skid, but let's cut the fluff—this isn't some gentle correction; it's a stark reminder that the bull run had legs made of nitro. After the Fed's September powwow sparked a quick sugar high, those gains evaporated faster than a meme stock pump. Blame it on scorching jobs reports and consumer spending figures that screamed "no rush on those rate slashes," leaving traders jittery as tech behemoths like Oracle cratered 5% in a single gut punch. Nasdaq's bleeding out on AI hype fatigue, Dow's dragging its blue-chip boots, and suddenly everyone's whispering about overcooked multiples. But here's the real gut check: is

The Fed's top voice dropping truth bombs on frothy equities isn't just chatter—it's a market mood-killer that's already shaved points off the bulls' parade. With the benchmark index flirting with nosebleed multiples and tech titans stumbling, the big question boils down to survival tactics: Lock in gains, dial up defense, or ride the seasonal wave? Digging into the data, sentiment, and street-smart moves reveals a landscape primed for volatility, but not total Armageddon. Here's the unvarnished playbook to navigate this tightrope without face-planting. Valuation Reality Check: Premium Pricing or Bubble Territory? Eye-popping metrics paint a picture of exuberance on steroids. The trailing P/E has surged to 30.58, a full 50% above the long-term norm of around 20, while forward estimates hove

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Uber(UBER)$ I see breadth erupting into Fed week with the kind of institutional firepower that defines turning points. The convergence of record highs, Musk’s $1B Tesla buy, and a 94% priced-in rate cut sets up a roadmap that could shape Q4 leadership. Institutional Breadth Ahead of FOMC • NYSE: 2,687 advancers vs 1,613 decliners, 717 new highs • Nasdaq: 6,585 advancers vs 4,231 decliners, 1,777 new highs • Up volume: NYSE 630m vs 491m, Nasdaq 11.3bn vs 6.1bn This isn’t noise; it’s accumulation into the Fed. Indices Anchored by Tesla Catalyst • Dow +49 pts (+0.11%) • S&P 500 +0.47% ~ The S&P 5

$Jabil Circuit(JBL)$ is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, September 25, 2025. Here is an analysis of what investors should be watching and potential short-term trading opportunities. EPS and Revenue: Analysts are forecasting an EPS of approximately $2.81 on revenue of around $7.6 billion. This would represent a significant year-over-year increase for both metrics, reflecting the company's recent growth trajectory. A meaningful beat or miss on these numbers will likely dictate the initial stock reaction. Summary of Jabil (JBL) Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings Jabil Inc. reported strong fiscal Q3 2025 results on June 17, 2025, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company's performance

When U.S. equities are expensive, investors often look for diversifiers to manage valuation and macro risks. In this article, I would like to share how we are breaking them down into three parts: U.S. stock valuations, Precious metals, Cryptocurrencies With this approach, we will pull them together in portfolio terms. U.S. Stock Valuations Current backdrop: U.S. equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) trade at forward P/E ~20–22x, above long-term averages (~15–16x). This leaves limited margin of safety. Macro risks: Rate cuts may support valuations, but sticky inflation, slowing earnings growth, or geopolitical shocks could expose downside. Implication: Overvaluation suggests future returns (next 5–7 years) may be below average. S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio as of 25 Sep 2025 is at 23.45, in late A

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Jerome Powell’s mic-drop moment—calling U.S. stock valuations “quite high” by multiple metrics—sent the S&P 500 (SPY at 661.10, per the finance card above), Nasdaq, and Dow into a tailspin, each shedding 0.6%, 0.9%, and 0.2% respectively on September 24. The warning wasn’t just a vibe check; it was a direct shot at frothy P/E ratios (S&P 500 at 23x forward earnings) and a labor market flashing yellow with unemployment ticking to 4.3%. Yet, with futures creeping up 0.1-0.2% pre-market and historical year-end rallies in play, the market’s at a crossroads: correction cliff or Santa Claus s

Powell Warns of Overvalued Stocks: Crash Coming or Year-End Rally Ahead? 📉📈 When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that “by many measures, U.S. stock valuations are quite high,” the reaction was immediate. U.S. equity markets slipped, with the three major indexes turning lower and extending losses. For investors who have been riding this bull market, Powell’s words were more than just an observation — they were a direct challenge to the foundation of market sentiment. We know the U.S. stock market has rallied hard in recent years, fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence, strong earnings in megacaps, and expectations that the Fed will eventually cut rates. But as valuations climb, the risks increase. The S&P 500 now trades at multiples well above historical average

Here is a structured view of the situation, along with my views and a tentative tactical posture. (These are not investment recommendations, but rather a reasoned framework.) --- 1. Is this a “healthy” pullback? In my view, yes — and in fact I would prefer to see occasional corrective pressures in such a stretched market. Here’s why I lean that way: Supporting arguments for a healthy pullback Overbought conditions: The U.S. equity market has run strongly through September (helped by the Fed’s rate cut). At some point, profit-taking and trimming become natural. Valuation introspection: With many valuation metrics at (or near) extremes, a modest pullback helps “reset” investor expectations. Technical/composure: A shallow, controlled decline (say 3%–5%) is often healthier than letting sentime

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The U.S. equity market has stumbled after an impressive run. For three consecutive sessions, all three major indexes—the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite—have posted losses, giving back their post-Fed September meeting gains. The slide has injected a dose of caution into an environment where investor sentiment had grown complacent. The big questions now: Is this simply a routine pullback? Or is it an early warning sign that valuations have gone too far and that a more substantial correction looms? With economic data still robust, inflation not entirely tamed, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warning about “quite high” stock valuations, the market sits at a crossroads. This article takes a close

📉 Market Down 3 Days! Valuations Too High: Time to Hedge or Stay the Course? 🚀 Introduction – From Euphoria to Anxiety in 72 Hours It only takes a few red days to shift market sentiment. After three straight sessions of declines, U.S. stocks have erased their post-Fed September gains. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all pulled back, with tech giants leading the weakness. Why the sudden change? Powell’s warning that equities look “quite high by many measures” still lingers. Stronger economic data muddied the outlook for future rate cuts. Valuations stretched: Price-to-earnings ratios remain well above historical averages. So the question for investors is timely: Is this just a healthy pullback… or a signal to hedge portfolios against deeper risk? --- 1️⃣ The Bearish View – Valuations Too H

👇🤔Weekly Top 20 Insider Sells: HOOD, DELL, WMT & MoreHi Tigers~ The following are the top 20 stocks with the most Insider Sells in the past week.Data source: Bloomberg, data cutoff date: September 19th, 2025.Read more for the upcoming week>>🎁Weekly Higher EPS Estimates: COST, MU, ACN, CTAS, AZO & More🎁Capturing Top 10 Ex_dividend: LOGI, RCL, CINF, UHT, EQR...📈Top Performing Growth Stocks 2025: OKLO, OPEN, MP & MoreWeekly: Fedspeak and PCE to test stock market at record high