After the August CPI report, Nick Timiraos, known as the Fed’s "mouthpiece," wrote that the inflation rate dropped to a three-year low in August. This decrease might prompt the Fed to start gradually cutting rates at next week’s meeting.According to the Labor Department, August’s CPI rose by 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.9% in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of cooling. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained steady at 3.2%.Despite a stronger-than-expected housing inflation in August, which could complicate a larger 50-basis-point cut, traders are betting on a more gradual policy easing by the Fed.Most Fed officials have signaled they’re ready to cut rates, and the CPI report isn’t expected to change that. This inflation relief offers some breathing r

Overview As the Fed rate movements continue to stir up the financial markets, investors are increasingly optimistic that U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) are on the verge of a significant rebound. Despite this optimism, a key market indicator is flashing warning signals, making potential large-scale buyers uneasy. With the Fed’s interest rate policy being a crucial driver, understanding how to navigate these waters can offer lucrative opportunities, especially when considering trading instruments like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  . Market Sentiment and Fed Rate Movements Optimism Amid Cooling Inflation and Labor Market As 2024 progresses, there are signs that both inflation and the labor

Am pretty sure rates will cut but how soon is the question

Overview Following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in Washington, significant shifts in expectations surrounding interest rate movements have affected the markets. Although the Fed signaled only one rate cut in 2024, diverging from earlier forecasts of three cuts, bond traders remain confident in further rate reductions. This report examines how these expectations are impacting US Treasury Bonds ETFs, specifically TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares). Fed's Revised Economic Forecasts and Rate Expectations On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day policy meeting with updated economic projections. Despite better-than-expected consumer price data earlier in the day, the Fed raised its inflation forecast and indic

TLT hitting $100 again depends on a few things, and it's definitely not a sure thing. Here's what I think, based on some market logic: Rate Cut Expectations: If the expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthens, then yes, TLT (the 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) could very well climb towards $100. This is because bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When rate cuts are anticipated, investors flock to bonds, driving their prices up and yields (interest rates) down. Market Volatility: However, the current market environment is pretty volatile. Even with strong rate cut expectations, other factors like inflation data or geopolitical tensions could throw things off course. Current Price and Trend: Right now (as of June 12, 2024), TLT is hovering around $130. A

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  The yield curve has remained inverted for 482 consecutive days — the longest inversion ever Historically, un-inversion leads to a recession

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  Will elevated interest rates trigger a recession in the US? Real rates, which are rates adjusted for inflation, have risen to 2.5%, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. In just 2 years, they have increased by 8 percentage points since the -5.5% low. Over the last 40 years, such high real rates have typically occurred prior to a recession. Meanwhile, the market is pricing just 1 rate cut in 2024, down from 7 forecasted in January. "Higher for longer" is weighing on the economy.

Can't wait to go up to 100

$TLT 20241115 94.0 CALL$ 

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x Shares(TMF)$ On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. economic data has finally started to cool down!On Tuesday, the focus of the latest U.S. data was primarily on the latest labor force indicators. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings at the end of April 2024 was recorded at 8.059 million, the lowest since March 2021 and significantly below the market expectation of 8.37 million. The March data was also revised down from 8.488 million to 8.355 million.This has reduced the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons to 1.2:1,

🌟🌟🌟As a beginner to Options strategy, I prefer to buy US Bonds such as $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$.  I will also receive  monthly dividends too.  The current dividend yield is 3.87% paid every month which is a great source of passive income.