SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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04-27 06:27

Tech Earnings Week: $AMZN $META $GOOG Overbought, Pullback or Breakout?

CHOOSE YOUR RISK THIS WEEK: Tech giants are heading into earnings with gaps and overheated in the daily: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : Overbought RSI | 1st Gap: -7% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : Mild RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -8% $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -7% Gap fill this week? $Apple(AAPL)$ Weekly bullish MACD crossovers usually precede average moves of +5% within three weeks. With earnings scheduled for this Thursday, the week is key to confirm the signal, currently brewing. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Are breakouts bullish? They are. Just be aware that the la
Tech Earnings Week: $AMZN $META $GOOG Overbought, Pullback or Breakout?
avatarSmartReversals
04-26 15:36

Will the Magnificent Earnings Week Extend the Rally or Expose the Cracks Beneath It?

The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%. B
Will the Magnificent Earnings Week Extend the Rally or Expose the Cracks Beneath It?
avatarSmartReversals
04-25 09:12

SPX & SPY Signal Upside Continuation While BTC Maintains Bullish Momentum Toward $80.6K

Markets are holding a constructive tone, with equities showing signs of continued upside despite short-term consolidation, while Bitcoin maintains strong momentum within a sustained bull trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 10 years, every time the Stochastic bounced from oversold area and made it above 50, the index maintained bullish continuation and consolidated when the oscillator was overbought (+80) with both lines. There is room for further gains, as %D is at 65%. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Indecision at the Top: The price has moved between 702.5 and 711 this week, building a small volume shelf. Any loss of today’s low could send the price to $695 (volume shelf below), validating
SPX & SPY Signal Upside Continuation While BTC Maintains Bullish Momentum Toward $80.6K

SPX Holds Support as NDX Stabilizes and Invesco QQQ Signals Potential Bottom

Markets are showing early signs of stabilization, with key indices holding support and momentum indicators turning constructive. While short-term consolidation may emerge, leadership strength and improving technical signals suggest the groundwork for a potential upside continuation—especially with earnings acting as the next major catalyst. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap at 7,051 served well as support. While today’s move was tech-driven and price action felt indecisive excluding the $Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF(XMAG)$ giants, this does not imply a lack of conviction. These leaders are bouncing and could fuel the move heading into next week’s earnings. $Cboe Volat
SPX Holds Support as NDX Stabilizes and Invesco QQQ Signals Potential Bottom

Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

Every industrial revolution has its toll booths. In the railroad era the toll booths were the trunk lines. In the internet era they were the operating systems. In the era now unfolding, the toll booths are the enterprise software platforms that sit between raw AI capability and the workflows that actually run the modern economy. These are the companies that own the data, the user identities, the audit trails, the sales pipelines, the creative pipelines, the security telemetry, and the service tickets. They are the rails that intelligence has to ride on if it wants to do useful work inside a public company, a federal agency, or a global bank. During the last months, the software stocks have been impacted in a significant way, but today they’re signaling reversals, the question is: Is that s
Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

SPX Pullback Risk vs. QQQ Bullish Confirmation

Price action is becoming more nuanced, with the S&P 500 flashing short-term caution signals while the Nasdaq 100 strengthens on a higher timeframe basis. This divergence sets up a key moment for traders to watch both support levels and momentum confirmation. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap was filled with a bearish engulfing candle as the RSI fell from overbought levels (70). A tactical pullback/consolidation usually follows. Given the afternoon's indecisive price action, keep a close eye on $7,021; if lost tomorrow, the decline could deepen. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 10 years, bullish Stochastic crossovers on the weekly chart have ma
SPX Pullback Risk vs. QQQ Bullish Confirmation

SPX, QQQ Flash Overbought as VIX Rises

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Overbought McClellan Oscillator +70 following a market bounce signals a short-term consolidation before the bullish continuation resumes. When the overbought condition is reached in a mature uptrend, it can precede a major pullback. The current case is a market bounce $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The RSI has crossed 70 for the first time in 6 months. This initial move typically does not mark the top, it usually precedes consolidations before reaching higher highs. A +7.9% spike in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and indecisive price action reinforce the thesis for a gap fill at 7,051. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ Consolidat
SPX, QQQ Flash Overbought as VIX Rises

SPY Gap Watch as MSFT and NKE Shape Next Trend

GAP SYNCHRONY Distance vs. Friday Close: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : 702.78 (1.3%) RSI 73.5 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : 642.18 (-1.2%) RSI 74.5 $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ : 486.6 (-2.1%) RSI 69 Daily Volume validating reversal candles, mostly on DIA. Healthy consolidation ahead. Will the $686.3 gap be filled for SPY? (-3.7% downside). $Microsoft(MSFT)$ A Shooting Star has formed above the upper Bollinger Band, leaving two open gaps below and RSI >70. A reset is likely before another attempt to reach the $441 gap. After a stellar weekly run of +14%, a pullback would be a healthy reset of overbough
SPY Gap Watch as MSFT and NKE Shape Next Trend

Earnings Face-Off: Will the Rally Take a Breather?

U.S. equities concluded the week on a decidedly bullish note, driven by major geopolitical de-escalation and a strong start to earnings season. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced 4.5% for the week, crossing the 7,100 milestone for the first time and closing Friday at a record 7,125.36. This marks an 11.9% gain for the benchmark index over the past three weeks. The tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 6.8% weekly to settle at 24,468.48, notching its 13th consecutive day of gains and extending its longest winning streak since 1992. The blue-chip $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ added 3.2% for the week to close at 49,447.92, while the $iShares Russe
Earnings Face-Off: Will the Rally Take a Breather?

Greed Replaces Fear: $SPX Signals Strength as $AMZN $NVDA Stretch

The S&P 500 ($SPX) continues to show powerful momentum, supported by historically bullish RSI shifts. However, overbought conditions across mega-cap tech suggest the rally may pause before its next leg higher. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Smart Money was peaking and fear was at an extreme 15 at the end of March. Today, "Dumb Money" is peaking and greed has taken over 68. Rapid RSI changes on the weekly are strong momentum signals. Bullish follow-through 6 and 12 months later every time. Returns were also bullish 1 and 3 months later with the sole exception of 1994 which saw a consolidation before the bullish continuation resumed. 2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Upper Bollinger Band breached + overbought RSI have prec
Greed Replaces Fear: $SPX Signals Strength as $AMZN $NVDA Stretch

Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?

Last week the Weekly Compass presented 12 setups 10 reached their targets, 1 neared their target, only 1 moved in the opposite way. or remained constructive, resulting in a 91.6% effectiveness rate. The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move. Top Performing Setups Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week
Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?

$SPX RSI Above 70 Points to Dip Within a Bullish Trend

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 2 years, RSI 70+ triggered pullbacks 8/10 times. The other 2 instances saw flat consolidations. 80% chances for a healthy pullback? Pullbacks post-2025 rally were mild. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ And rapid 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. Data indicates a +0.6% average move 1 week later, +2.5% at 1 month, and +17% after a year. Even in exceptions like 2000, the trend holds for the first 3 months before pathways diverge.
$SPX RSI Above 70 Points to Dip Within a Bullish Trend

SPX QQQ AAPL TSLA META: Leaders Break Higher While Market Breadth Remains Thin

Markets are pushing into fresh highs, led primarily by large-cap tech, as momentum remains strong but increasingly stretched. While breakouts across SPX, QQQ, AAPL, and TSLA signal continued bullish control, early signs of overheating are emerging with META and broader indices approaching key technical thresholds. With participation still relatively narrow and volatility compressed, the current setup suggests the uptrend remains intact—but a near-term consolidation or pause is becoming more likely as the market digests recent gains. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Fresh all time highs and the price has just entered early greed territory. The RSI is not yet overbought, and the upper B. band suggests continuation. The bull train could offer soon a consolidat
SPX QQQ AAPL TSLA META: Leaders Break Higher While Market Breadth Remains Thin

V-Shaped Surge Aligns with my Forecasted 2026 SPX Target

Back in November 2025, I posted a special study on the likely 2026 targets for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ The thesis indicated targets above the current all-time highs of 7,023 reached today for the SPX. During the recent months of volatility, I also posted special studies indicating that pullbacks and corrections are normal during bull markets before the major tops are reached; that is exactly what we are seeing right now. The link to that November study about target is here: Stage of the Market: SPX and NDX Price Targets I share high-probability trades and technical analysis on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays including special levels for paid subscribers, and I also post on Wednesd
V-Shaped Surge Aligns with my Forecasted 2026 SPX Target

$SPX Holds Strength as $NDX Nears Resistance and $IWM Extends

S&P 500 Index continues to show strong momentum despite overbought conditions, with key support now defining the trend. Meanwhile, NASDAQ 100 Index and iShares Russell 2000 ETF remain bullish, but extended setups increase the risk of near-term pullbacks. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ From free fall to anti-gravity. In three weeks, the shift in sentiment has been remarkable. Price action breached the upper Band under overbought conditions. While indecisive candles precede pullbacks, today’s candle shows conviction. $6,930 is the key support to watch. 2. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ A gap-up at the open is coming. Given the overbought oscillator, it's prudent to avoid chasing longs. Price action remains bullish above $25,
$SPX Holds Strength as $NDX Nears Resistance and $IWM Extends

$SPX Breakout Confirms Bullish Setup With $TSLA $PLTR Reversals

Last Saturday, the Weekly Compass indicated that risk/reward still favored the bulls, but a specific “must-conquer” level was required for continuation. Today, that level was reclaimed with conviction. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ showed resilience this morning. I shared the key levels in the premium chat before the market opened, featuring the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ chart holding the 50-DMA. SPX: $6,823 was the essential daily level separating bullish and bearish conditions. After a bounce at the $6,786 support zone at 9:45 AM, a daily bottom emerged, by 9:50 AM, $6,801 was reclaimed, and by 12:20 PM, the SPX formally turned green, launching toward our high daily target of 6,876. Price l
$SPX Breakout Confirms Bullish Setup With $TSLA $PLTR Reversals

$SPX Break Above 6816 Triggers Rally Across $NVDA $META $QQQ

In last Saturday’s Weekly Compass, I noted that our high-probability setups were contingent on the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ conquering $6,816. The market offered a gift with Monday’s negative opening; once that key level was reclaimed during market hours, more precisely at 10:40 AM, the panic cleared. Both long-term investors and traders watched as the SPX crossed that line slowly, with no rush, giving a gentle opportunity to take action. Once in bullish territory, the high-probability setups were triggered. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
$SPX Break Above 6816 Triggers Rally Across $NVDA $META $QQQ

$SPX Leads Higher as $PLTR Jumps and $META Holds Key Levels

S&P 500 Index is regaining momentum after reclaiming key levels, reinforcing a continuation setup. Strength in Palantir Technologies Inc. contrasts with consolidation in Meta Platforms, Inc., highlighting a still-resilient tape. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Even bulls didn't expect this. Once the price bounced from the daily support zone of 6,786, it began gaining traction, then the key daily level of 6,823 flipped to support. With the 100DMA now recovered, the move suggests continuation. Levels posted this morning in chat. 2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ As noted in Saturday’s Weekly Compass (link attached), price action was primed for a reversal. Following today's +4.5% surge, the full analysis is a
$SPX Leads Higher as $PLTR Jumps and $META Holds Key Levels

$QQQ $AVGO $GOOG Signs of a Near Term Pullback Are Building

Invesco QQQ Trust, Broadcom Inc., and Alphabet Inc. are all flashing the same message: stretched conditions + indecision = higher odds of a pullback. This isn’t bearish — it’s positioning. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Indecisive candles and the Stochastic in overbought zone have preceded pullbacks. As noted in yesterday’s Weekly Compass, I remain skeptical of another consecutive rally week; a gap-fill attempt is likely. The pullback trigger came up this morning - Price action is PRIMAL. 2. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ When Broadcom breaches the upper Bollinger Band, a retracement toward the 20DMA follows, usually no exceptions. This stock is permanently analyzed in the Weekly Compass, including charts, daily price levels and
$QQQ $AVGO $GOOG Signs of a Near Term Pullback Are Building

Not a Collapse, Just a Pause? $SPX $SMH Cooling, $PLTR Signals Bounce

Market breadth is weakening as momentum cools. $SPX participation is rolling over, while $SMH points to a healthy consolidation phase. At the same time, $TSLA sits at key long-term support and $PLTR shows a potential bullish reversal signal. The market may be shifting from trend to consolidation, with selective setups emerging. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has reversed from 70%, usually a consolidation follows; this time potentially below the 50DMA. The market was driven by strength in Tech and Materials, overall participation was negative. 2. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Two weeks ago I posted in my publication that semiconductors would outperform the market at the
Not a Collapse, Just a Pause? $SPX $SMH Cooling, $PLTR Signals Bounce

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