👀 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is showing a potential bounce setup. The hammer candle bounced directly off the 50-day moving average, which suggests buyers are stepping in at an important level. But the setup has a clear line in the sand: 🔑 $7,656 must hold today. More importantly… 🚀 A move above $7,690 would break the bearish diagonal trendline and give the bounce a stronger technical confirmation. So I’m watching two levels: $7,656 → support$7,690 → bullish trigger One more gap up for the books. 📈 And yes… I expect this gap to get filled eventually. 👀 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thi

The stock market experienced choppy, indecisive price action in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ struggled under the weight of surging bond yields. For most of the week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged as high as 5.35% early Thursday to set a fresh 24 year high, while the 30-year yield touched 5.62%, the highest level since 2002. This bond sell-off was fueled by a combination of fears that a resilient economy would keep interest rates higher for longer and escalating conflict involving Iran. Mid-week data kept investors on edge by presenting a mixed economic picture. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed cooling inflationary pressur

As the week is about to close, let’s recall that in last Thursday’s edition I highlighted the high odds of a spike in the Volatility Index. Traders and investors must monitor the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ ; otherwise, you are taking on far higher risk than you realize. Monitoring the VIX helps time the market much more effectively. With that said, the VIX has jumped 10.2% this week, a significant move indicating that even while indices trade choppily, vulnerability to any bearish trigger is elevated. To be clear, I was bullish in the Weekly Compass posted on March 28th (in the middle of the panic), and by the final week of April, I documented the strength of the weekly price action observed over the first three weeks of that month, forecasting b

The stock market struggled to find footing today as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields continued to pressure risk assets. Both long- and short-term government bond yields pushed to levels not seen in decades, capping any meaningful rebounds in equities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, marking its highest peak since 2007, while the 30-year yield surged to 5.62%, its highest mark since 2002. Adding to the bearish sentiment was a duo of weak economic reports. Data from The Conference Board revealed that U.S. consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level since 2014, driven by anxieties over the cost of living and the labor market. This was followed by the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed U.S. job openings fell to 7.09 mil

On Saturday, we analyzed the technical cracks behind $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price action, and since Thursday, I presented the case for a bounce in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ . Today, the SPX declined in correlation with those two elements. The central daily level for today (anticipated since Friday; our key line indicating bullish or bearish momentum) was 7,729. Today, the price opened below this level, drifting down toward 7,706 before hitting 7,670, the ultimate low of the day and a level anticipated on Friday if the CDL was lost. With today’s action, the SPX has lost also its Central Weekly Level (CWL). The unfilled gap at 7,651 continues to act as a magnet, and any bullish move before that space is

It’s worth analyzing today the macro updates we saw this week, then I’ll go into the charts and targets for this week. Four numbers dropped back to back and they were loud this week: Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.0 against an expectation of 53.6. Services PMI hit 58.7 against 55.8. Anything above 50 means expansion, so both sectors aren’t just growing, they blew past what economists modeled. That’s the first clue: the US economy is not slowing down. Implications for the stock market: Strong PMI data usually means strong corporate revenue ahead, so on the surface that’s bullish for equities. Then came Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(CLmain)$ Inventories, up 2.969 million barrels when the market expected a drawdown of 0.700 million. That

A gap represents a distinct break in the price action of an asset’s chart. It occurs when the price of an asset opens at a significantly different level (either higher or lower) than its previous day’s closing price, with no trading occurring in the price range between the close and the open. Visually, this creates an empty space or “hole” on the chart, which is often highlighted by traders (as seen in the yellow boxes on your chart). Gaps typically occur when significant news, earnings reports, or economic data are released while the market is closed, leading to a sudden shift in supply and demand before the next trading session begins. Price action is generally considered a continuous flow. A gap interrupts that flow, meaning that not every price level between the previous close and the

The stock market continues through a choppy season, where overnight moves and gaps have become the new normal. However, the current price action regime can be navigated those gaps in our favor, as we have done for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ itself; as gaps typically trigger counter-moves. Since Monday, the gap at 7,651 has been on our radar for the SPX. Tuesday’s indecision added warning signs, and Wednesday’s retrace, confirmed by the

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied on Monday in a very rapid way to a high weekly target, that day I posted two charts highlighting the reason why a consolidation/reversal could follow. Yesterday indeed formed a doji candle on the daily timeframe. I anticipated the Central Daily Level (CDL) of 7,767 to paid subscribers, noting it as the key level to watch today (bearish below, bullish above). Price action lost this level at the open and broke through the support levels one by one (7,753, 7,741, and 7,727) before finding support at the weekly zone of 7,702. Yesterday, we reviewed bearish factors, including the shooting star on $Apple(AAPL)$ (which correctly anticipated today’s retrace), low market breadth, an

📉 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to lose momentum after moving too far, too fast. As noted yesterday, the recent move in $SPX stretched the level structure, so today’s muted session was largely in line with that caution. Meanwhile, $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ completed its unfinished move to 14.5, while the percentage of $SPX stocks above their 200-day moving average slipped to 51%. ⚠️ The bigger signal may be coming from $Apple(AAPL)$ . I’ve been tracking $AAPL closely in the daily note this week after flagging possible exhaustion last Saturday. Today’s shooting star adds another warning sign. It matters beyond AAPL itself. If the setup develops into a broader

Today’s move in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ validated the bullish price action formed last week after bouncing from 7,513 as our extended bearish target. The price consolidated with conviction above the modeled central level of 7,605 that validates momentum (bullish above, bearish below). Today we’ll examine the context, since the price reached our extended bullish target in a single day while the SPX gained 1.5% and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ stayed neutral. In my latest publication, I highlighted how valid it was to stay bullish with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Alphabet(G