$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is at all-time highs while the Fear and Greed Index shows fear. Should you use this index to time the market? No. Is the divergence worth considering as a risk warning? Absolutely, recent ATH at fear levels preceded pullbacks, caution is key. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Semiconductors is the most crowded trade, and individual names as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are showing signs of consolidation with significant intra-week swings. Capital rotates, it's not surprising to see the Mag7 ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

U.S. equities closed the week with gains, as investors weighed a firm Federal Reserve stance against a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced 0.9% to 7,500.6. The Federal Open Market Committee, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held benchmark rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range and signaled no near-term intention to ease. The decision briefly rattled markets midweek before equities recovered and pushed higher. In the corporate arena, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ reversed from our $225 level on Tuesday, the stock closed the week in 185, securing a valuation of $2.4 trillion. Across asset classes, the U.S. Dollar Index held near a one-year high of 100.7 as currency markets

U.S. equities sold off hard on Wednesday as markets digested the Fed’s latest policy decision. The central bank held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the forecast is what moved markets. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC projected a year-end fed funds rate of 3.8%, a 25 basis point hike from current levels. Warsh delivered a shorter policy statement, stripped out the usual forward guidance, and committed to a single mandate: price stability. No hints, no roadmap for the path ahead. The market’s reaction was immediate. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped 1.2% to 7,420.1, the worst reaction to a new Fed chair’s first decision day since 1994. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.3% to 26,021.7.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 7500.6, up 1.1% on the session reclaiming its central weekly and monthly levels in the same move. The session brought a bounce from yesterday's breakdown. The price action showed indecision rather than strong conviction closing the day without a clear directional candle. Worth noting: SPX is sitting very close to its central weekly level for next week (CWL, details below), meaning that line is being tested right now. The recovery of both the CWL and the CML today is a constructive short-term development, and holding them through the next session will be essential to keep momentum and break above the bearish diagonal. The Stochastic crossover suggests caution, most of them have been validated, losing next week’s CWL wo

As posted yesterday, a gap fill for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was highly probable given the overextended condition of the price action, making key price levels essential to watch for an early reversal. The Central Daily Level (CDL) shared for today was 7,549.0, and I noted that upward momentum would be endangered if that level was breached. A breakdown below that CDL exposed our downside target of 7,521.0, which was hit by 3:45 PM 🎯 and subsequently breached, suggesting bearish continuation for tomorrow. Because the initial rally was so rapid (and we have studied how suspicious a sharp, early-week jump can be) I also provided key daily levels for the Magnificent Seven to help you manage risk. $Meta Platforms, I

The market saw a bullish breakout today fueled by geopolitical headlines. While Friday’s price action ended on a weak note, the use of levels to assess scenarios is working well. I mapped out in the Weekly Compass that an $S&P 500(.SPX)$ opening above 7417 would be bullish targeting 7,530; the price closed today at 7,554 🎯. “The SPX begins the week weak around its Central Daily Level (CDL) of 7,417. If there are no major negative headlines during these days, reaching 7,530.5.” Not only did the market avoid negative headlines, but it caught a powerful tailwind from positive updates regarding a potential peace agreement in Iran. As also detailed in the Weekly Compass, the Magnificent Seven were likely to bounce. That is what materialized today,

Last week’s Setups Blueprint delivered exceptional results, it presented seven setups with the highest probability of success: $Apple(AAPL)$ : My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : Targeted an extended bearis

$7,309 was the central daily level for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ today. The index struggled through the morning and that level acted as resistance, as expected, given that volatility is high and yesterday’s decline in the index was full of conviction. At 1:30 PM, however, the index rallied +0.7% and the central level was recovered based on positive geopolitical news. Also as anticipated, the next resistance, the bullish target zone, was 7,353, and price reached it in a matter of two minutes. After about an hour of consolidation, the rally continued toward 7,440, and the day ended before that milestone was reached. Daily levels become key when the weekly ones are too wide, a product of high volatility and large price moves. That was the case for

As mentioned on Saturday in the Weekly Compass, “A temporary relief spike on Monday is possible,” and that is what the price action presented today. The reason is simple: short-term timeframes were extremely oversold. As usual, the levels played a critical role today. Price action revolved around the Central Daily Level of 7,431, attempting to move north, but the CWL provided to our premium subscribers acted as precise resistance. Price action printed an inside candle for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and key ETFs like $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ . Inside candles reflect market uncertainty with neither side establishing clear directio

Hello everyone, The futures session has opened and we are already seeing volatility. Prices opened in the red before staging a quick bounce. As mentioned on Saturday, a spike is possible, but the indices must recover their central weekly levels to provide stronger validation for a sustained bounce. I also outlined the less likely scenario of a gap down. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ The key readings for this week include: 1. Support and Resistance Levels for the Week Ahead This report covers the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$

U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Highe

Over a month ago, I updated my $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯. When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example. Yesterday

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 7,584.3 (+0.4%) after bouncing from the confluence zone of the 7,520 weekly level and the 7,515 daily level. The first validation of the bounce came at 10:00 AM with the recovery of the 7,534 daily level, followed by a move over the 7,559 central weekly level around 11:00 AM, establishing a bullish milestone that was consolidated when the central daily level of 7,570 held for the remainder of the day. These key levels were highlighted in yesterday’s Market Update (access here), alongside the potential bounce for $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ . Both tech giants validated the bearish setups anticipated in the Weekly Compa