It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its rate hike to combat inflation.At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges. Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007.At this 1 year anniversary, we can review these questions:what's the end of the rate hike cycle?when will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cuts?what's the target rate for March?1. What’s the end of this rate hike cycle? - 5.5% is a consensusThe benchmark rate currently

A research report led by strategist Savita Subramanian on Monday stated that among the 30 companies in the S&P 500 index that have already reported their earnings, 90% of them have exceeded earnings per share expectations, and 73% have surpassed revenue expectations.This is the biggest positive surprise in the first week of the reporting period since at least 2012, largely due to impressive earnings from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Citigroup(C)$ , and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$.Driven by the impressive financial data, JPMorgan Chase's stock price surged by 7.55% on the same day, marking the largest single-day gain since November 2020.1. Major Banks Released Stellar Earnings A

Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.However, for a longer period, the index kept

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ plummeted to an all-time low in Tuesday’s trading session. The price per share hit an all-time low of $8.10 as the markets closed.It was driven by the latest earnings. Although the bank’s EPS in the first quarter topped analysts’ estimates, its deposit flight was worse than what analysts had estimated, plunging 41% to $104.5 billion, missing the estimates of $145 billion.Everyone is preparing for an imminent bankruptcy?The White House is expressing concerns about whether it has the capacity to find a solution for First Republic Bank's insolvency.The rescue plan for First Republic Bank did not succeed. The bank suspended its dividend and its shares continued to slump, raising speculation about the bank's future as a s

On Thursday, three major US stock indexes collectively closed higher. At the close, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ settled at 4293.93, rebounding 20% from its low point in October 2022, entering a technical bull market. It also signalled the ending of the longest $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bear market since the 1940s. Tech sector rally end the second longest bear marketThe S&P 500 index has been in bear market territory for 244 trading days, marking the longest duration since May 15, 1948. That year, the bear market lasted for 484 trading days. Historically, bear markets have an average duration of 142 trading days.S&P 500 index has risen 11.5% year-to-date, but a large portion of the gains are attributed to surges

As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe

Has the long-awaited market correction finally begun? Yesterday, technology stocks generally experienced a decline, with prominent AI companies such as $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ dropping by 3%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ closed at $374.75, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ closed at $323.38.If I hold tech stocks, how can I hedge against this? This article will introduce three options strategies to hedge against the potential market correction. 1. Buy putYou can purchase put options on Nvidia and Microsoft to provide downside protection. In the event of a pullback, the value of the put options would increase, offsetting some of

Big tech collectively closed down yesterday due to the “special rebalancing“ while small cap $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ shows strength.1. Special rebalancing in $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ to reduce big tech’s weight to 38.5%The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is preparing to adjust the weightings of its 100 components, particularly focusing on the "magnificent seven" stocks: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$,

Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ shares dropped as much as 20%; $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ dropped 17%; $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT

In May, the stock market was influenced by earnings and the AI concept, resulting in both gains and losses. Although the saying advises people to sell in May, investors holding technology stocks must have achieved decent returns as $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose by over 20%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and the semiconductor sector rose nearly 30%. Tech sector posted rally as most of their earnings beat estimates.Will June deliver a surprise?Looking at historical data, June tends to have a relatively subdued performance. However, the month presents an opportunity for new investors to make strategic investments and potentially reap significant profits in the future. Non-farm payroll tomorrow  Hit th

On May 11 at the Google I/O conference, Google CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled PaLM 2, an artificial intelligence language model.Google's latest AI achievements on I/O conference1) PaLM 2, an artificial intelligence language model, can generate a variety of text responses for users. PaLM 2 can be used in 100 languages and is good at mathematical reasoning, software development, language translation, and natural language generation.Around 20 Google products are using PaLM 2, and a lightweight version of PaLM 2 can run on mobile devices.2) Bard, the AI chatbot, has been upgraded to be powered by PaLM 2, providing more sophisticated responses. Bard's programming capabilities have also been improved, and it now integrates with various programming tools. Bard has learned more than 20 programming la

Combo options are option trades constructed from multiple contracts of differing options. The combinations enable more precise risk management techniques, offer the potential for higher returns, and reduce the margin requirement.In the upcoming earnings season, what combo options are recommended to use?As the broader market $S&P 500(.SPX)$ already dips too much, the probability of the plunge in this earnings season get lower. The bullish combo strategy can offer insurance on top of “sell put“.1) Bull Put SpreadImagine you believe a stock won’t go down too much. In a bull put spread, you: Sell a Put Option: You sell a put option because you think the stock won't fall below that price.Buy Another Put Option: You also buy another put option

The market is confident at “skip” at the June meeting, but Chairman Powell may express hawkish views indicating that the Fed is still prepared to continue raising rates when necessary.Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming CPI report because if the data exceeds expectations, it will have an impact on whether there will be a rate hike in June.The consensus for May CPI and core CPI is 4.1% and 5.3%.Headline CPI of 4.1% is much lower than the previous data of 4.9%; core CPI remains elevated at 5.3%, lower than the previous data of 5.5%.  However, there is still debate regarding the path of rate hikes, and the market expects at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases. The pause should not be seen as the end: 25bps in July and more?The path of fut