From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?

Tiger_comments
2023-10-10
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Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.

The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.

The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$

Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:

The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.

However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.

But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.

Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?

Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?

More impacts on rate hike decision or not?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~

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Comments

  • koolgal
    2023-10-11
    koolgal

    🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short.  The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran.  If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus.  This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.

    I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation.  This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation.  So CPI will definitely be affected. 

    Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again. 

    @Tiger_comments  

    • koolgalReplyCMLeong: 
      Yes I do hope for World peace 🍀🍀🍀🌈🌈🌈
    • CMLeong: 
      你說的對👍🏻希望世界和平🙏🏻
    • koolgalReplyzuma: 
      My pleasure 😍😍😍
    • zuma: 
      thx
    • koolgalReplyAdamDavis: 
      War is the worst possible way to resolve a conflict.
  • icycrystal
    2023-10-12
    icycrystal
    战争——受苦的是平民。这也将影响世界其他地区。看到或听到这样的新闻真是令人心碎。我对这场战争持悲观态度，因为价格肯定会受到影响，从而将通胀进一步推至下一个水平。人们将会收紧他们的口袋。毫不奇怪，如果美联储将加息更快[什么][什么][什么]为这些饱受战争蹂躏的地方的人民的想法和祈祷[祝福][祝福][祝福]转贴和标记 @希恩 @Aqa @成功88 @SR050321 @xXxZealandxXx @阳光 @rL @Universe宇宙 @海伦珍妮特来评论和分享你的想法并赢得硬币[微笑][微笑][微笑]
  • MHh
    2023-10-11
    MHh

    Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control. 

  • AliceSam
    2023-10-10
    AliceSam
    虽然很难确定股市是受到战争还是其他因素的影响，尤其是在复杂的高通胀和加息周期下。但是我还是看跌。
  • Tiger_comments
    2023-10-16
    Tiger_comments

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    谢谢你评论我的帖子。您的硬币已发送到您的帐户~别忘了检查您的老虎硬币💖

  • MHh
    2023-10-11
    MHh
    @Fenger1188 @HelenJanet @rL @Universe宇宙 @Kaixiang @SR050321 @SPOT_ON @DiAngel come join
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