From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?

Tiger_comments
2023-10-10
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Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.

The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.

The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$

Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:

The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.

However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.

But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.

Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?

Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?

More impacts on rate hike decision or not?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~

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Comments

  • koolgal
    2023-10-11
    koolgal

    🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short.  The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran.  If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus.  This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.

    I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation.  This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation.  So CPI will definitely be affected. 

    Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again. 

    @Tiger_comments  

    • koolgalReplyCMLeong: 
      Yes I do hope for World peace 🍀🍀🍀🌈🌈🌈
    • CMLeong: 
      你說的對👍🏻希望世界和平🙏🏻
    • koolgalReplyzuma: 
      My pleasure 😍😍😍
    • zuma: 
      thx
    • koolgalReplyAdamDavis: 
      War is the worst possible way to resolve a conflict.
  • icycrystal
    2023-10-12
    icycrystal
    war - civilians are the ones suffering. it will also impact the rest of the world. it's just heart breaking to watch or listen to news of such. am bearish towards the war as definitely prices will be affected pushing inflation further to the next level. people will be tightening their pockets. not surprise if Fed gonna rate hike sooner [What] [What] [What] thoughts and prayers for the people in these war torn places [Bless] [Bless] [Bless] reposting and tagging @Shyon @Aqa @Success88 @SR050321 @xXxZealandxXx @LMSunshine @rL @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet come comment and share your thoughts and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
  • MHh
    2023-10-11
    MHh

    Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control. 

  • AliceSam
    2023-10-10
    AliceSam
    虽然很难确定股市是受到战争还是其他因素的影响，尤其是在复杂的高通胀和加息周期下。但是我还是看跌。
  • Tiger_comments
    2023-10-16
    Tiger_comments

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    Thank you for commenting on my post. Your coins have been sent to your account~ Don't forget to check your tiger coins💖

  • MHh
    2023-10-11
    MHh
    @Fenger1188 @HelenJanet @rL @Universe宇宙 @Kaixiang @SR050321 @SPOT_ON @DiAngel come join
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