Thesis: Fundstratโs Tom Lee sees the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hitting 7,700 in 2026 as a probable outcome, driven by three converging tailwinds that are already showing up in the data. The Three Pillars Pillar Evidence Market Implication Economy passed the war test Earnings estimates are rising despite geopolitical shocks Recession fears disproved; fundamental floor is stronger than feared Private credit healing $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ collapsed to 72, now recovered to 85 Credit crunch fears easing; liquidity improving for tech/risk assets AI productivity + Middle East resolution AI shifting from capex story to ROI reality; potential geopolitical de-escalation Risk premia compress โ val