Investment themes for H2 2023RC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig2Follow the sequenceRC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig3Key CIO convictions for H2 2023Markets are at a critical juncture as central banks are hitting the pause button after the fastest hiking cycle since the ‘80s. Quality is the compass for navigating this phase.1. Narrow and uncertain path to growth, with a bottom in H2 2023The lagging effects of tightening in the real economy will lead to a further deceleration in growth with divergences: a mild US recession, anaemic growth in Europe and more resilience in emerging markets. With low absolute numbers, both on the positive (Europe) and negative (United States) sides, the path ahead remains very uncertain.2. Gradual slowdown in inflationInflation is trending lower, but the speed of adju

After the gradually subsided banking crisis happened in March, the US stock $S&P 500(.SPX)$ market continued to rebound so far.Investors are still rushing to buy despite a slew of U.S. economic data released this month pointing to recessionary signals and an expected sharp drop in Q1 corporate earnings.On Thursday, the PPI unexpectedly fell sharply, the number of jobless claims rebounded, the market expected to cut interest rates within this year, the U.S. debt and the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ fell, and the market rebounded.Is now really a good time to buy US stocks?Bank of America investment strategist Jared Woodard pointed out that there are three signals of economic recession, based on

We think the worst is over for investors.Megan Werner from JPMorgan said in mid-year outlook.Despite the likelihood of an economic downturn and a U.S. recession by the end of the year, the worst may be over for investors.We think that both stocks and bonds can continue to generate healthy returns for investors through the end of the year and into 2024.Looking Back1.Stock market: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has recovered from its lows in October 2022 and is trading 15% higher.2.Economy: Profits and margins have decreased slightly, but sales are resilient, transportation and energy costs are lower, and the scramble for workers has eased.3.Sectors: Technology and communication services sectors have performed well in the S&P 500 this year, recovering from

Morgan strategist James Lord and others wrote in a report that as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing, the bank expects emerging markets to have another good year, but does not expect it to be smooth sailing.Following three weeks of client meetings, here are eight surprises that could roil markets in 2024, strategists say: Either a surprise or a scare.1- Emerging market sovereign credit returns fall to 0% in 2024: U.S. Treasury yields will rebound to 5% by the end of 2024, driving the yield differential with emerging markets to 450 basis points and erasing positive returns . "Given that this happened a few months ago, this scenario should not be difficult to imagine," the strategists noted.2-Local currency bonds beat sovereign bonds in 2024: M

Under SEC regulations, fund managers with assets under management exceeding $100 million are required to file a document known as "Form 13F" within 45 days of each quarter's end, disclosing their holdings in stocks and bonds.Recently, major institutions have released their position data. Based on the 13F holdings data, do you know which stocks the institutions purchased in Q1?The following chart presents the top 20 holdings of institutional investors:Ticker# Shareholding institutions#Institutions QoQ (%)Market value of institutional holdings ($M) $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 3,8000.81,009,842.09 $Apple(AAPL)$ 3,7190.46978,148.19 $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 3,328-0.3424,312.75

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up cumulatively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index rose for the fifth consecutive week. The index has risen by more than 26% since the low point of the bear market. In addition, both the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hit their highest levels since April 2022.image.pngFrom the data point:Earlier this month, discretionary investor positions, which include fund managers and retail investors, rose above neutral for the first time since February, Deutsche Bank data showed.U.S. equity funds attracted $18.85 billion in net inflows in the week ended June 14, the largest weekly net buying since mid-February 2

Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the$S&P 500(.SPX)$

As of closing on May 31, The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed up 0.25% in May to 4179.83 points; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed up 5.8% to 12935.28. $DJIA(.DJI)$ closed down 3.49% to 32908.27.Judging from the industry standard of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index in May, three sectors closed up: technology stocks rose 9.12%, followed by the Communication Services sector, which closed up 6.25%. Then there is the Conumer Cyclical section.Data:https://finviz.com/Data:https://finviz.com/Specifically, the month-to-month increases in the technology sector include: $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ was rescued by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Friday, with a new bank set up to hold and guarantee deposits up to US$250,000 held at the bank.On Sunday, crypto bank $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ was also closed down due to what was said by the regulator to be a risk of systemic bank failure.All Signature's depositors will be "made whole",  "​​As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer,” said by the FDIC.$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ is said to have deposits/assets of anywhere between US$120bn and US$200bn.  $Sign

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Citigroup(C)$ , $BlackRock(BLK)$ , and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ will kick off the financial sector’s reporting season on October 13, followed by $Bank of America(BAC)$ and $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ on October 17, and $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ on October 18.Financials performance by sector: Insurance industry is the standoutThe Financials sector is expected to see a 8.7% year-over-year earnings growth rate, ranking fourth among all sectors.The Insurance industry is the standout performer with a 64%

Keypoints1）The $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.Recommend to Read: After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?How Global Banks & Top Institutions Respo

Most of the stocks have down 40~50%, Here are 3 directions that Institutional Money goes? We've witnessed the sharp decline of stock market in January, and many stocks got big declined,and we've seen trends tend to be positive in recent weeks. Aureus Asset Management chairman and CEO Karen Firestone shared on an interview said: " Most of the stocks have down 40%~50%, now that its time to buy……" Click to Review the video: Most of the stocks down 50% are have hit their lows What's your opinion? Do you feel positive? Below are some dat