RDPD富爸穷爸LV6 谋士虎
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*What's my view on big tech misses? First off, quarter earning misses are kind of expected since big tech had reported job cuts and cost cutting through various means few months back. 1 or 2 QE misses doesn't bother me. However as an investor, what bother me will be 1)Whether the businesses I invested in still have a wide economic moat?  2)Will its business model remain sustainable?  3)Can the business continue to churn in profit? 4)Can the business remain as a market leader? 5)Is there a permanent fundamental changes to its business? If yes, I will exit the business. For example, SPH and Starhub used to be a great business 20 years ago. Look at where they are now? For me Apple, Amazon and Alphabet are still the same business I know before the earnings so nothing has changed
Hang Seng Index has risen from it's Oct low of 14597 to 22700 within 3 months. That's a whopping 55.5% increase. So should investors worry about a 7% drop in some of the big tech? Or worry that this is the end of the rally? Let's remove the prediction factor because prediction is base on individual opinion. When one individual is bullish, there will be another who is bearish. It's just like listening to an expert or investment strategist telling you their views on S&P. Who should you listen to? 😂 https://www.cnbc.com/market-strategist-survey-cnbc/ 1) The same also apply to HSI, so let's deep dive into the facts. Statistically a bear market doesn't last more than 3 years so the probability of HK/China heading back into another bear is low. Looking at the 30 years historical chart of H
$Alibaba(09988)$ 1)Can Alibaba repeat the feats of GME and BBY?I don't think it's appropriate to compare GME and BBBY to Alibaba. It's like comparing apple to orange.First off, GME and BBBY are 'hype up stocks' simply meant for the purpose of speculative plays. Besides, these businesses are not making money, doesn't have any track records of growing revenue or positive cashflow from their businesses. They attract mainly speculators who want to profit from short term plays. I highly doubt value investors like Charlie Munger or his associates would be keen to have a stake in these businesses.Alibaba on the other hand has real assets and proven track records of revenue growth and it continues
Many CNY goodies are finger licking good [Happy] . Personally, I'm going with huat kueh aka fortune cake. It symbolizes fortune and prosperity as its namesake and I wish everyone in the tiger community a huat and prosperous 2023. May the bull returns and bring us multiple folds in our portfolio 💰 😂
Three Warnings to Remind In Stock Market 1) First and foremost, I don't recommend using leverage to invest. When it comes to investment which I will hold for at least 5-10 years or longer, it has to be money I have and money I don't need for future use. In short it has to be money I can park and sleep well with it. It is important to understand leverage and use it appropriate (disclaimer I only use leverage for trading portfolio but never for investment portfolio). Regardless of one's portfolio size, a failure to control leverage can have devastating effect. Bill Hwang is an example of excessive leverage resulting in huge losses within 2 days https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days 2) Predicting the stock m
Goals for 2023 1) Stay healthy, health is wealth. No amount of money can bring back your health. To investors who lose money and having sleepless nights over your investment, you had either take on a bigger risk that you cannot stomach or you bought into a business that's not profitable/ no longer having a sustainable economic moat. Knowing when to cut loss play an important part in building a resilient investment portfolio. 2) My goal each year has always been beating the market. Was 2022 a bad year? It depends on how one see it. As Adam Khoo had mentioned in his YouTube video, if your goal and objective is to build an investment portfolio to beat the market over the long haul and achieve higher return, then 2022 is a good year to build your investment portfolio. Mr Market depressing mood
@TigerEvents:【Tiger Friday】Set a Goal for 2023
To me, low risk investments are index ETFs and generally more suitable for the retail investors with a time horizon of 20 years or more (minimum 10 years). My preference has always been $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ as time and again it has proven to be resilient no matter what happens be it war or economic crisis or black swan event like pandemic etc. To me this is a low risk investment that allows me to sleep well no matter what happens. The probability of one taking a loss in a 20 years investment cycle is zero. Other index ETFs that I like include $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ and $TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800)$  that makes
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Can Elon Musk be trusted? I've seen this script happening before and I think his word can be taken with a pinch of salt. The current trend is bearish and I don't see any sign of reversal. Since breaking below 200SMA in the weeklies it's price action are showing some sign of sharp selling down. In my post last week when TSLA is at 150 region, I posted it may likely test 120 region I didn't expect that to happen within a week. This magnitude of sell down surprised me a little given that now is usually the festive season where the major players are taking the rest of the year off and I expect lesser selling pressure. Well it happen when one least expected [Helpless]  From the chart, t
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Last month I did a post on TSLA. Price action was around 180s when I post my thoughts that it is likely to test the 200SMA. It had since tested and breached this level. Luck or my crystal ball is working? Nah, how I wish I can see the future This is my follow up base on TA. The weekly chart close below 200SMA last Friday which likely imply further downside movement in the short term. The last time it stays below 200SMA was back in Oct 2019. On the daily, all SMA are slopping down, with price action showing higher low and lower low which is also a bearish signal. The next support is around 120-125 region failing which it might breached the 100 level. Let's see how price action forms the following
Base on what I have gathered, courtesy from lplresearch the average bear market drop is nearly 30% and last about a year. So where are we so far?  From market peak to trough, S&P 500 is down 27.5% (4818 peak dated 4 Jan and 3491 trough dated 13 Oct) and is about 11 months now so statistically we are nearer to the start of the new bull than continuation of the current bear. For more details, you can refer to https://www.google.com/amp/s/lplresearch.com/2022/05/18/six-things-to-know-about-bear-markets/amp/ Bull case - so if we are assuming base on the thesis that S&P500 had bottomed, where could it be heading? According to Charlie Bilello (source I had obtained from Twitter), S&P returns on the next calendar year is generally bullish with the exception of 1931. Do note
First off, can we have the option of choosing both market instead of just 1 out of 2 😂. From the HSI chart, price action is showing higher low and higher high in the daily timeframe. In the weekly, there appear to be resistance around 19400 region. Whether it will break up or down remain to be seen. Personally, I would prefer the market to reverse before hitting higher to prove that the market have legs for further upside and signs of market reversal and start of the new bull run so let's see. As for which market to invest in 2023, it boils down to 1) individual risk appetite - Hong Kong is weighted heavily by geopolitical tensions and government intervention and policies hence it has a higher risk as compare to US market. However, consider it's cheap valuation, it's risk reward
Stock World Cup Group A - $Microsoft(MSFT)$  Stock World Cup Group B - $Visa(V)$   Stock World Cup Group C - $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  Stock World Cup Group D - $UnitedHealth(UNH)$   Stock World Cup Group E - $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  Stock World Cup Group F - COST Stock World Cup Group G - OXY Stock World Cup Group H - BA My reason for picking these stocks are based on their business model and their abilities to continue to churn out positive cashflow and having a track record of positive earnings except OXY and BA. Personally I don't have any
This is a good topic for discussion. Personally, I have friends who will NEVER invest in HK/China stocks no matter how cheap the stocks are value at as they simply do not like the CCP regime influencing the stock direction. It ultimately boils down to how individuals perceive as many in this group believe they are simply un-investable. Perhaps the western media negativity over the past years play a part in their decision 🤔😂 As for me, as long as a business continues to generate positive cash flow, increase revenues, have a wide moat etc etc, I will invest in it. The stock price will always revert to their mean over a longer period of time. The question one should ask is how would CCP benefit if they kill their cash cow businesses? If China want to continue to grow their economy,
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Chart is looking bearish which is in line with the current sentiment. Since it had breached 180 level, next support is around 150 region in the weekly which is near 200SMA. Failing which 120-125 will be the next area of support. Since there is no sign of trend reversal, I'll just sit back and relax until price action shows otherwise before I take on the trade or if there's a confluence of signals before I take the trade. It's hard to give a target price but I will structure my trade to give me a risk reward of at least 1:2  Below my earlier post on Tesla dated 21 Oct in this community 👇 https://ttm.financial/m/post/9983737391?utm_campaign=9983737391&utm_medium=copy&shareID=ece365c00e
I support both Germany and Spain national team since I watch football years ago so nothing has changed for this World Cup and future ones [LOL]  As for my favourite player, well it's a tough choice as I have 2 favourite players because I support both Arsenal and Real Madrid so I'm gonna pick each from my favourite football clubs [Tongue]  1) First the legendary non-flying Dutchman Dennis Bergkamp. Those who watched EPL will never forget Bergkamp's goal against Newcastle United in 2002 was voted as the best Premier League goal of all-time in the league's 25-year history, involving a flick around Newcastle defender Nikos Dabizas before calmly tapping the ball into the net. It's a pity he didn't win any trophy with the Dutch national team and
First of all I am grateful for being born in Singapore, a nation without much internal conflict where we live happily and peacefully in harmony among different races. I'm also grateful for the education we had received in Singapore. Knowledge allows us to create wealth through businesses or via investment 😂 This overall economic and political stability have allowed us to grow as a nation and we are fortunate in this aspect to attract more international firms such as $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ who are happy to set up businesses in Singapore which in turn create more job/wealth opportunities for us. In the spirit of thanksgiving, we should embrace what we have instead of complaining what we don't have. All in all,
I remember AFF Championship used to be called Tiger Cup [LOL] and Singapore won it 4 times (last won in 2012). It about time 'The Lions' bring home another trophy [Happy] . Personally I have not followed AFF closely but I recalled Singapore was the host nation when it was first held back in 1996. Time flies [LOL] Attached a photo of the Singapore winning team from 2004. As for World Cup, it's probably the last time we see football icons CR7 representing Portugal and Lionel Messi representing Argentina. Let's see if they can add another prestige and glamorous trophy to their cabinet. Let's bring on the game [Grin] Look forward to the action on the pitch but hope there's not gonna be another Christian Eriksen's moment. All in all watchin
The biggest takeaway is that communication lines are now open between the 2 economic powers. While there's bound to be differences, the world is big enough for both countries to co-exist and prosper together so let's hope sanity return instead of more sanctions. There's simply no need to have a new cold war which doesn't benefit anyone. Time will tell. As for HK and China stocks, if we are simply looking at valuations. HSI as a whole is 2 standard deviation below average. It is extremely cheap as compare to other exchanges. I won't be surprised if HSI become the 'most bullish index' in percentage gain in 2023. After all, market moves in cycle so there's no such thing as 'china stocks are uninvestable' as proclaimed by the western media who take on a bias view in my opinion. Then again whet
I have a different opinion. CPI has already shown signs of peak a few months back, moreover it is a lagging indicator. So the recent announcement that CPI had decreased was not a surprise at all. It was expected but market just react a few months late to this piece of 'good' news. Jerome Powell had said multiple times in his speech inflation needs to be controlled. He also said that unemployment needs to rise as additional proof for FED to halt rate hikes. The fact that many firms are now 'downsizing' hint that FED policies  are working in their favour.  Since this is not a normal recession but a 'FED induce recession' I maintain my view that this recession (if any) will be mild. It will not be 'dotcom or subprime type of crash' as many retail investors had expected. ht
Base on midterm polls, Republican are favourite to win both Senate and House which means they are likely in control of Congress. Historically stock market tend to perform better under a split government so we shall see if history can repeat. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2022/11/06/stock-market-outlook-midterm-election/10606588002/ While I'm hopeful of the traditional xmas rally, we should not discount the Jerome Powell's factor. If JP decides to open his mouth again to 'push down' the market, it means I get more time to accumulate more shares of my favourite companies. Either way bullish or bearish I have my plan to get around it. As for DWAC, their financial metrics are bad. It's not a business I would like to own for long term, probably more for short term trading.

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