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2021-07-21

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2021-08-01

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The US economy in the second quarter is "soft outside and tough inside"

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2021-08-10

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The "fig leaf" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually "fraudulent"

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He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress towards price stabilization and full employment. Only if the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start tapering asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The labor participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year over year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth this year in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly excited the market. The Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish anymore. The market expects that the timetable for reducing the scale of bond purchases will be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also been making hawkish comments.</b></p><p>Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Federal Reserve is rapidly approaching the point of starting to reduce the size of bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key standard to meet the start of the rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering earlier if the job market maintains the recent strong pace of growth.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start pulling back support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, although the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell that the job market needs to be further recovered. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real American Employment</b></p><p>JOLTS job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.073 million in June, a record high and far exceeded expectations of 9.27 million, according to U.S. data released on Monday; The May figures were updated to 9.5 million from 9.209 million. June hiring rose to 6.7 million from 6 million the previous month, the second-biggest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, the vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is because many Americans are unwilling to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States reached a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the pandemic, the average unemployment benefit in the United States was about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus packages, which included additional unemployment benefits of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average unemployed American earns a net income of $687 a week, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 an hour, more than double the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of getting a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even eliminated the $300-a-week payment early, leaving roughly 7.5 million Americans likely to lose unemployment benefits. That said, the truest jobs numbers in the United States may take one to two months to reveal.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's scaling back of asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually \"fraudulent\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually \"fraudulent\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Previously, with the explosion of inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve has always claimed that inflation is \"temporary\", that inflation in the United States will decline in the future, and the Federal Reserve is not yet in rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had said at the interest rate meeting in July that millions of people in the United States were still unemployed. He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress towards price stabilization and full employment. Only if the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start tapering asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The labor participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year over year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth this year in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly excited the market. The Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish anymore. The market expects that the timetable for reducing the scale of bond purchases will be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also been making hawkish comments.</b></p><p>Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Federal Reserve is rapidly approaching the point of starting to reduce the size of bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key standard to meet the start of the rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering earlier if the job market maintains the recent strong pace of growth.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start pulling back support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, although the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell that the job market needs to be further recovered. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real American Employment</b></p><p>JOLTS job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.073 million in June, a record high and far exceeded expectations of 9.27 million, according to U.S. data released on Monday; The May figures were updated to 9.5 million from 9.209 million. June hiring rose to 6.7 million from 6 million the previous month, the second-biggest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, the vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is because many Americans are unwilling to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States reached a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the pandemic, the average unemployment benefit in the United States was about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus packages, which included additional unemployment benefits of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average unemployed American earns a net income of $687 a week, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 an hour, more than double the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of getting a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even eliminated the $300-a-week payment early, leaving roughly 7.5 million Americans likely to lose unemployment benefits. That said, the truest jobs numbers in the United States may take one to two months to reveal.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's scaling back of asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128522311","content_text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。\n一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。\n美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了\n上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。\n如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。\n美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论。\n亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。\n波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。\n虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？\n真实的美国就业状况\n周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空缺增加了59万个，达到1,007.3万个，创纪录新高，远超预期的927万个；5月数据从920.9万上修至950万6月招聘人数从上月的600万升至670万，为政府自2000年开始追踪该资料以来的第二大增幅。\n职位的空缺一方面表明美国经济复苏强劲，各个公司都在加大招聘，但实际上很大一部分原因是由于很多美国人不愿意去工作导致的。\n近期，美国新冠病例数与住院人数创下六个月新高，疫情的爆发令一部分人不愿意重返就业岗位。此外，还有很大一部分人是为了领取高额的救济金而放弃工作，由于没有工作意愿，这部分人是不算在失业率里面的，所以实际上美国的真实失业率是要比5.4%高的。\n在疫情暴发之前，美国的失业补助约为平均每周387美元，而在疫情之后，联邦政府推出了一系列的经济刺激计划，其中就包括每周300美元的额外失业福利。\n这意味着美国失业民众平均每周的净收入达到687美元，相当于每小时17.17美元的工资，是联邦最低工资每小时7.25美元的两倍多，无怪乎数百万的美国人愿意“躺平”领救济金而不去找份工作。\n不过很快，增强型失业救济金将于9月初到期，许多州甚至提前取消了每周300美元的补助，大约750万美国人可能会失去失业救济金。也就是说，美国最真实的就业数据可能需要一到两个月后才能揭晓。\n假如到时候的就业数据依旧强劲的话，美联储的“遮羞布”将不复存在，美联储缩减资产购买规模也将板上钉钉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893555292,"gmtCreate":1628291723616,"gmtModify":1703504503096,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893555292","repostId":"1190418068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190418068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628267438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190418068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-07 00:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration of Market Regulation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190418068","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份。","content":"<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing A transaction of HK$ 23.6 billion between SOHO China and Blackstone Group was formally filed for review by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement, and SOHO China and the Offeror jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021 in relation to Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC's pre-conditional voluntary conditional cash offer on behalf of the Offeror to acquire all the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration of Market Regulation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration of Market Regulation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">澎湃新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 00:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing A transaction of HK$ 23.6 billion between SOHO China and Blackstone Group was formally filed for review by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement, and SOHO China and the Offeror jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021 in relation to Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC's pre-conditional voluntary conditional cash offer on behalf of the Offeror to acquire all the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">澎湃新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b062bbd85848c3ea66f8fca10f2c9937","relate_stocks":{"00410":"SOHO中国","BX":"黑石"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190418068","content_text":"记者 李晓青\nSOHO中国和黑石集团的一笔236亿港元的交易，获得了市场监管总局正式立案审查。\n8月6日晚间，SOHO中国有限公司及Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited（要约方）联合发布公告，SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年6月16日的公告，内容有关高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司代表要约方作出附先决条件自愿性有条件现金要约以收购SOHO中国全部已发行股份；及SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年7月6日的公告，内容有关延迟寄发综合文件。\nSOHO中国称，自联合公告发出后，要约方已向中国国家市场监管总局提交并购审查申报相关文件及材料。自延迟寄发公告发出后，要约方已提供进一步文件及材料，以回应监管机构关于补充额外信息的要求。\n2021年8月3日，要约方收到中国国家市场监管总局于2021年8月2日签发的通知，对要约方根据《中国反垄断法》提交的申报正式立案审查。尽管该申报已获正式立案，要约方及SOHO中国仍可能被要求提供进一步信息及材料供监管机构审查。截至目前，没有任何先决条件已获达成。\n在此前的6月16日，SOHO中国公告，高盛代表黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份，交易价格约236.57亿港元。每股收购的价格较最后交易日的收盘价3.8港元/股溢价约31.6%。\n交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权，SOHO中国将继续在香港证券交易所上市。\nSOHO中国在公告中表示，黑石集团计划维持SOHO中国现有的主营业务和管理层，并计划在适当的情况下利用公司的资源在中国进行扩张。要约完成后，黑石集团计划对公司进行详细的战略审查，以制定公司未来业务发展的业务计划和战略，并确定为优化和合理化公司的业务活动和资产组合而采取的适当或可取的措施。\nSOHO中国2020年的年报数据显示，公司实现营业收入约21.92亿元，同比增长约19%。其中，租金收入15.37亿元，同比下降16%，出售物业收入6.54亿元。税前利润约16亿元，同比下降约17%；毛利13.9亿元，同比减少7.9%；净利润5.43亿元，同比减少58.8%；净资产负债率约为43%，平均借贷成本约4.7%，总资产约707.04亿元，总负债约331.57亿元。\n截至今日收盘，SOHO中国报3.22港元/股，涨幅1.26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BX":0.9,"00410":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":"2156060165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156060165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","media":"赵伟宏观探索","summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","content":"<p>Report Text</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US economy in the second quarter was \"soft on the outside and tough on the inside\"</p><p>Event: On July 29th, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it is not as expected, the annual rate of 6.5% month-on-month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of US GDP, in the second quarter, the annual rate of private consumption reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value by 11.4%, the annual rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was less than the previous value by-2.3%, the annual rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value by-2.9%, and the annual rate of imports was 7.8%, which was somewhat lower than the previous value by 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption have shown a good growth trend. Private consumption contributed 7.8% to US GDP in the second quarter, far higher than private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has slowed down, the annual rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even more excellent, with the quarter-on-quarter annual rate reaching 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The annual rate of 12% month-on-month is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption of 3.1% in the same period since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory dropped significantly, which was the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was less than expected. The pull rate of private investment to GDP in the second quarter of the United States was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate and non-real estate investments declined. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annual rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, the private inventory of the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, and the annual rate of GDP was-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a high level, and house prices have continued to accelerate. New houses \"in short supply\" have appeared in many places and \"intensified\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a building raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently set new record highs. The sharp increase in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction materials. The continuous shrinking of construction employment in the United States is a direct reflection of this shock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not because demand is not good, but on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline under the large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all declined. However, unlike the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventory in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than reflecting the lack of demand. Take retailers and wholesalers as an example. Driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated, and the absolute level early exceeded that before the pandemic. However, due to the relative shortage of domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their stocks, but continued to passively \"de-stock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both dropped to a historically low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continued to be low, and the process of economic unlocking progressed in an orderly manner. While the unlockdown has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The healthy income growth of the household side and the sharply increased savings rate driven by the previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continuous improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, the improvement of the trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the price of raw materials such as timber, as well as the sharp increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting the steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment in the United States may gradually rebound next. At the same time, with the substantial increase of new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>Once again, the US government faces a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>","source":"lsy1594946959994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">赵伟宏观探索</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 07:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Report Text</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US economy in the second quarter was \"soft on the outside and tough on the inside\"</p><p>Event: On July 29th, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it is not as expected, the annual rate of 6.5% month-on-month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of US GDP, in the second quarter, the annual rate of private consumption reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value by 11.4%, the annual rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was less than the previous value by-2.3%, the annual rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value by-2.9%, and the annual rate of imports was 7.8%, which was somewhat lower than the previous value by 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption have shown a good growth trend. Private consumption contributed 7.8% to US GDP in the second quarter, far higher than private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has slowed down, the annual rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even more excellent, with the quarter-on-quarter annual rate reaching 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The annual rate of 12% month-on-month is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption of 3.1% in the same period since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory dropped significantly, which was the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was less than expected. The pull rate of private investment to GDP in the second quarter of the United States was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate and non-real estate investments declined. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annual rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, the private inventory of the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, and the annual rate of GDP was-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a high level, and house prices have continued to accelerate. New houses \"in short supply\" have appeared in many places and \"intensified\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a building raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently set new record highs. The sharp increase in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction materials. The continuous shrinking of construction employment in the United States is a direct reflection of this shock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not because demand is not good, but on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline under the large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all declined. However, unlike the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventory in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than reflecting the lack of demand. Take retailers and wholesalers as an example. Driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated, and the absolute level early exceeded that before the pandemic. However, due to the relative shortage of domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their stocks, but continued to passively \"de-stock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both dropped to a historically low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continued to be low, and the process of economic unlocking progressed in an orderly manner. While the unlockdown has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The healthy income growth of the household side and the sharply increased savings rate driven by the previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continuous improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, the improvement of the trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the price of raw materials such as timber, as well as the sharp increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting the steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment in the United States may gradually rebound next. At the same time, with the substantial increase of new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>Once again, the US government faces a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">赵伟宏观探索</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156060165","content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178295697,"gmtCreate":1626822748819,"gmtModify":1703765705943,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178295697","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":178295697,"gmtCreate":1626822748819,"gmtModify":1703765705943,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178295697","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":"2156060165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156060165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","media":"赵伟宏观探索","summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","content":"<p>Report Text</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US economy in the second quarter was \"soft on the outside and tough on the inside\"</p><p>Event: On July 29th, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it is not as expected, the annual rate of 6.5% month-on-month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of US GDP, in the second quarter, the annual rate of private consumption reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value by 11.4%, the annual rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was less than the previous value by-2.3%, the annual rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value by-2.9%, and the annual rate of imports was 7.8%, which was somewhat lower than the previous value by 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption have shown a good growth trend. Private consumption contributed 7.8% to US GDP in the second quarter, far higher than private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has slowed down, the annual rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even more excellent, with the quarter-on-quarter annual rate reaching 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The annual rate of 12% month-on-month is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption of 3.1% in the same period since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory dropped significantly, which was the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was less than expected. The pull rate of private investment to GDP in the second quarter of the United States was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate and non-real estate investments declined. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annual rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, the private inventory of the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, and the annual rate of GDP was-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a high level, and house prices have continued to accelerate. New houses \"in short supply\" have appeared in many places and \"intensified\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a building raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently set new record highs. The sharp increase in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction materials. The continuous shrinking of construction employment in the United States is a direct reflection of this shock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not because demand is not good, but on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline under the large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all declined. However, unlike the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventory in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than reflecting the lack of demand. Take retailers and wholesalers as an example. Driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated, and the absolute level early exceeded that before the pandemic. However, due to the relative shortage of domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their stocks, but continued to passively \"de-stock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both dropped to a historically low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continued to be low, and the process of economic unlocking progressed in an orderly manner. While the unlockdown has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The healthy income growth of the household side and the sharply increased savings rate driven by the previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continuous improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, the improvement of the trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the price of raw materials such as timber, as well as the sharp increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting the steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment in the United States may gradually rebound next. At the same time, with the substantial increase of new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>Once again, the US government faces a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>","source":"lsy1594946959994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy in the second quarter is \"soft outside and tough inside\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">赵伟宏观探索</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 07:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Report Text</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US economy in the second quarter was \"soft on the outside and tough on the inside\"</p><p>Event: On July 29th, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data, the annual rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it is not as expected, the annual rate of 6.5% month-on-month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of US GDP, in the second quarter, the annual rate of private consumption reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value by 11.4%, the annual rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was less than the previous value by-2.3%, the annual rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value by-2.9%, and the annual rate of imports was 7.8%, which was somewhat lower than the previous value by 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption have shown a good growth trend. Private consumption contributed 7.8% to US GDP in the second quarter, far higher than private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has slowed down, the annual rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even more excellent, with the quarter-on-quarter annual rate reaching 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The annual rate of 12% month-on-month is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption of 3.1% in the same period since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory dropped significantly, which was the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was less than expected. The pull rate of private investment to GDP in the second quarter of the United States was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate and non-real estate investments declined. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annual rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, the private inventory of the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, and the annual rate of GDP was-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a high level, and house prices have continued to accelerate. New houses \"in short supply\" have appeared in many places and \"intensified\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a building raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently set new record highs. The sharp increase in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction materials. The continuous shrinking of construction employment in the United States is a direct reflection of this shock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not because demand is not good, but on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline under the large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all declined. However, unlike the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventory in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than reflecting the lack of demand. Take retailers and wholesalers as an example. Driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated, and the absolute level early exceeded that before the pandemic. However, due to the relative shortage of domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their stocks, but continued to passively \"de-stock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both dropped to a historically low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continued to be low, and the process of economic unlocking progressed in an orderly manner. While the unlockdown has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The healthy income growth of the household side and the sharply increased savings rate driven by the previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continuous improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, the improvement of the trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the price of raw materials such as timber, as well as the sharp increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting the steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment in the United States may gradually rebound next. At the same time, with the substantial increase of new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>Once again, the US government faces a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">赵伟宏观探索</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156060165","content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893555292,"gmtCreate":1628291723616,"gmtModify":1703504503096,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893555292","repostId":"1190418068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896553631,"gmtCreate":1628595951623,"gmtModify":1676529790763,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896553631","repostId":"1128522311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128522311","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1628596205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128522311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually \"fraudulent\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128522311","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳","content":"<p>Previously, with the explosion of inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve has always claimed that inflation is \"temporary\", that inflation in the United States will decline in the future, and the Federal Reserve is not yet in rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had said at the interest rate meeting in July that millions of people in the United States were still unemployed. He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress towards price stabilization and full employment. Only if the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start tapering asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The labor participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year over year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth this year in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly excited the market. The Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish anymore. The market expects that the timetable for reducing the scale of bond purchases will be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also been making hawkish comments.</b></p><p>Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Federal Reserve is rapidly approaching the point of starting to reduce the size of bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key standard to meet the start of the rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering earlier if the job market maintains the recent strong pace of growth.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start pulling back support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, although the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell that the job market needs to be further recovered. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real American Employment</b></p><p>JOLTS job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.073 million in June, a record high and far exceeded expectations of 9.27 million, according to U.S. data released on Monday; The May figures were updated to 9.5 million from 9.209 million. June hiring rose to 6.7 million from 6 million the previous month, the second-biggest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, the vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is because many Americans are unwilling to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States reached a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the pandemic, the average unemployment benefit in the United States was about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus packages, which included additional unemployment benefits of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average unemployed American earns a net income of $687 a week, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 an hour, more than double the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of getting a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even eliminated the $300-a-week payment early, leaving roughly 7.5 million Americans likely to lose unemployment benefits. That said, the truest jobs numbers in the United States may take one to two months to reveal.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's scaling back of asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually \"fraudulent\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve, the non-agricultural sector in July was actually \"fraudulent\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Previously, with the explosion of inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve has always claimed that inflation is \"temporary\", that inflation in the United States will decline in the future, and the Federal Reserve is not yet in rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had said at the interest rate meeting in July that millions of people in the United States were still unemployed. He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress towards price stabilization and full employment. Only if the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start tapering asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the \"fig leaf\" of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The labor participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year over year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth this year in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly excited the market. The Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish anymore. The market expects that the timetable for reducing the scale of bond purchases will be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also been making hawkish comments.</b></p><p>Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Federal Reserve is rapidly approaching the point of starting to reduce the size of bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key standard to meet the start of the rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering earlier if the job market maintains the recent strong pace of growth.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start pulling back support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, although the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell that the job market needs to be further recovered. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real American Employment</b></p><p>JOLTS job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.073 million in June, a record high and far exceeded expectations of 9.27 million, according to U.S. data released on Monday; The May figures were updated to 9.5 million from 9.209 million. June hiring rose to 6.7 million from 6 million the previous month, the second-biggest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, the vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is because many Americans are unwilling to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States reached a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the pandemic, the average unemployment benefit in the United States was about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus packages, which included additional unemployment benefits of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average unemployed American earns a net income of $687 a week, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 an hour, more than double the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of getting a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even eliminated the $300-a-week payment early, leaving roughly 7.5 million Americans likely to lose unemployment benefits. That said, the truest jobs numbers in the United States may take one to two months to reveal.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's scaling back of asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128522311","content_text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。\n一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。\n美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了\n上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。\n如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。\n美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论。\n亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。\n波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。\n虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？\n真实的美国就业状况\n周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空缺增加了59万个，达到1,007.3万个，创纪录新高，远超预期的927万个；5月数据从920.9万上修至950万6月招聘人数从上月的600万升至670万，为政府自2000年开始追踪该资料以来的第二大增幅。\n职位的空缺一方面表明美国经济复苏强劲，各个公司都在加大招聘，但实际上很大一部分原因是由于很多美国人不愿意去工作导致的。\n近期，美国新冠病例数与住院人数创下六个月新高，疫情的爆发令一部分人不愿意重返就业岗位。此外，还有很大一部分人是为了领取高额的救济金而放弃工作，由于没有工作意愿，这部分人是不算在失业率里面的，所以实际上美国的真实失业率是要比5.4%高的。\n在疫情暴发之前，美国的失业补助约为平均每周387美元，而在疫情之后，联邦政府推出了一系列的经济刺激计划，其中就包括每周300美元的额外失业福利。\n这意味着美国失业民众平均每周的净收入达到687美元，相当于每小时17.17美元的工资，是联邦最低工资每小时7.25美元的两倍多，无怪乎数百万的美国人愿意“躺平”领救济金而不去找份工作。\n不过很快，增强型失业救济金将于9月初到期，许多州甚至提前取消了每周300美元的补助，大约750万美国人可能会失去失业救济金。也就是说，美国最真实的就业数据可能需要一到两个月后才能揭晓。\n假如到时候的就业数据依旧强劲的话，美联储的“遮羞布”将不复存在，美联储缩减资产购买规模也将板上钉钉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}