no HK/CHINA rally is not over but everyone's taking profit whenever there's a flush up. that's because everyone waited so long and losing patience with China/HK. I couldn't wait and sold BABA at almost break even. re invested in higher growth US stocks.  Another way to get income is to sell covered calls on your ChinaHK stocks when there's a flush up. 

Do. Or Do Not. There is No Try.  That's how Elon Musk approaches all his businesses, and none more so than his managing of Twitter 🐦 right now. For Elon's recent selling of Tesla shares, there might just be two reasons: 1. To pay a portion of $44 billion Twitter acquisition, or  2. To have cash for Twitter running costs in the near to middle term  First reason doesn't seem so, as Musk had already sold shares in Aug this year and explicitly mentioned it was to fund the acquisition. There was no further news that he needed more cash with loans secured. The second reason is more plausible. Revenue is forecasted to drop dramatically, as executives and advertisers flee Twitter. Elon said that the company might face bankruptcy next year, and that's why he

Eat, Pray, Trade. $Archer-Daniels Midland(ADM)$Eat - Everyday we eat. Food prices are skyrocketing. Time for some payback! Decide if it's worth "investing" in ADM. ADM produces, stores, processes and transports agriculture products. It is also a nutrition company - "Healthy Living!".  It is a jack-of-all-trades, go-to agricultural play.Pray - Tongue-in-cheek. In today's choppy/bear market, sometimes you can only PRAY for good news.  On a serious note, nothing to worry. Just hold. It will go up... eventually. [Happy]  Trade - This is not a long term hold.  Agriculture, like all commodities go through cycles. Current bull cycle still has some way to go.  Find a good entry price to trade this sto

The Anticipation is Killing Me The last two days were green with $S&P 500(.SPX)$Bullishbouncing off key support 3900 like a trampoline. Not even a moment's hesitation before rallying again SPX? [Helpless] $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$followed suit, rebounding from similar support of ~11454. Looking at SPX, there's a high chance of the index ranging between support and resistance for the next two weeks till Fed announces Sep's rate hike.  75 basis points I presume? [Doubt] - SPX next resistance at 4108- NASDAQ next resistance at 12125SPX price-to-earnings is at 20x now (2nd plot). I take this as fair value in our current macro environment.Are bargain

Right now, the most "powerful" man in America is not the US President Joe Biden, but is Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman.  Look at Joe Biden's mid term review in the first picture. It's 56% disapproval rating on his job performance. Luckily, he's not depending on this for his year end bonus.[LOL]  In contrast, when Powell speaks on inflation, interest rate hikes and economy, the stock market shudders in fear. Investors listen intently to his speech. Even people who don't invest, feel the weight of his rate hikes, as it influences borrowing costs and spending decisions of households and businesses.  Historically, after mid term election is over, the stock market rises and volatility drops.  The best result for the stock market happe

Putting numbers into perspective. Yes, everyone says doomsday is coming in the market. It's going to crash further.  But by how much? Let's see the NASDAQ. It closed 10575 last Fri. That's down ~34% from all time high of 16023.   Taking the resistance just before COVID and subsequent support of 9717 as the next major support, that's 8% down from current level (10575). If there's a black swan event that crashes the markets, I am taking 6843 (COVID bottom low) as the lowest low. That's 35% and 57% down from current and ATH NASDAQ levels, respectively. See plot and table for visualization. This means we are slightly more than halfway from my worst predicted drop. In other words, when buying NASDAQ index fund/etf at this level, there's a risk of 8-3

When the Going gets Tough, the Tough gets Going!-- The Going Gets Tough--On hindsight, it's pretty obvious why the markets are down.1. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$Bearishrally that started mid June was overextended and could not break 200 day moving average.2. When SPX was peaking, together with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$, Jerome Powell had to talk that week. That created some uncertainty and caused the market to retrace, slightly. 3. If Powell's speech was dovish, we probably would have hovered at 4108 support for SPX. However, Powell's speech suggested at 75bp hike in Sep! This wasn't priced in by the markets and down we go to the 2nd support of 3900. We'll probably reach the support

not much but good enough for me. hold the banks for good dividends and growth. DBS is solid.

Earnings season is coming!Although the big companies have not reported earnings, but make no mistake, its near.Some companies have reported earnings this week for e.g. $BlackBerry(BB)$ [Spurting]Nothing much to say about that [Blush] The expectations for S&P 500 Q3 22 earnings growth have dropped from 9.8% (predicted in June 22) to 3.2%. SPX Forward price to earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 15.8x which is below the 5 year (18.6x) and 10 year (17x) PE.That looks pretty fair value, unless the forward earnings growth drops more moving forward.  From the plot, we see that forward PE drops all the down to 13-14x in a recession. This is due to share price plummeting.  Last few days, SPX was h

The Big Guns are Out This Week $Alphabet(GOOGL)$Revenue from online ads is expected to decline as the economy slows down. In the Q1 22, 80% of Google's total revenue came from Google advertising, including revenue from Google search, ads on YouTube, and the Google network - Alphabet is trying to generate growth from other avenues, as well.  These notably include self-driving car technology leader Waymo, drone-delivery business Wing, and healthcare units Calico and Verily. - Google Cloud has also become a huge growth driver for Alphabet. Revenue for the cloud hosting business soared nearly 44% year over year in Q1 to $5.8 billion.$Microsoft(MSFT)$Microsoft is expected to grow

Chip Demand Waning... Or Not? Blood bath for semiconductor stocks last couple of days, but is it over? Lots of report on slowing growth and reduced demand for chips. For e.g.-Crypto crash, less crypto mining -PC, laptops demand drops as noone works from home these days! -Inflation fears impacts consumer purchasing power. Well, here are my views on selected stocks on my radar. For $AMD(AMD)$, let's wait for Q2 results and reaction. PE ratio at 29 can still be compressed towards low 20s if growth slows. That brings us to a stock price of $50-55 somewhere close to April-June 2020 price. At $50, that gives a PE of 20x which is a very good entry. Strong support at this level too. 💪 March 20 COVID lo

It's the Final Countdown. To the end of the bear market... At least that's what a Morgan Stanley strategist Micheal Wilson said.  Well here are some thoughts. 1. Bank saga in US and rest of the world is not over yet. Not the time to go bottom fishing this week yet. As US authorities work out "bail out" plans, there will be turmoil and volatility.  For the record, 4 banks have failed in March. Is there no one else? [Glance]  Warren Buffett has also been consulted for his advice and to rescue some bank (looking at you SVB) I presume.  2. Crypto a hedge and a winner? BTC gained and holding strong as M1 money supply is in turmoil.  For the past year, crypto was battered. However, the failure of traditional banking system has now cast light on crypto

$S&P 500(.SPX)$Party Pooper!Just when everyone was enjoying July and August rally, in came Sep and potentially Oct to spoil the fun.After last night's confirmation of 75bp hike, the expected relief was short lived. Markets tumbled further and closed red, with SPX hanging on to 3790 support. RSI-14 is at 33.74 now. See first plot.If it dips under 30, then index might be considered oversold. We need to watch next few days for this signal. The NASDAQ RSI is slightly higher at 34.93.  If the index dips below 30 but crosses back the 30 mark subsequently, it might be a bullish signal to buy in for a rally. However, there's one more impending consideration - midterm elections happening 8 Nov.Sec

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Crystal ball crystal ball 🔮, tell me what you see?Is there going to be more Volatility? [Smug] *Please google Lord of the Rings and Palantir if you can't catch the connection. Today's the day for PLTR's Q2 earnings (before market open) and I'm not expecting much to be honest.PLTR's earnings surprise history has not been impressive. Earnings lagged in two of the trailing four quarters, matched once and beat once, delivering an earnings surprise of -16.7%, on average.- Expected revenue is pegged at $470 million, indicating 25.1% year-over-year growth, though still shy of 30% targeted annual growth.- The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 3 cents per share, indicati

The Price of Recession! Let's make a wild guess for tonight! [Sly] S&P 500 will bounce back 2% to 3739 after last night's 3.25% sell off. Hmm?Don't be mistaken. If it rebounds, it will be BUT a slow decline down into the abyss that  I suspect will end by 2022. Yes, a painful process for all but inevitable. I could be wrong and it could be a steep drop right to the bottom by June end! Haha [Happy] Unlikely, though. Whatever the case, 3200 for S&P500 is highly probable. Current valuation at 3666 has some parts of recession factored in, but maybe not all. Further bad news (e.g. higher inflation in June, poorer earnings for Q2, etc...) would open the floodgates for a steep plunge as shown in the CAPITULATION phase of the

A Recipe for Disaster 1. Banks meltdown and closures (see below) - Silvergate - Silicon Valley Bank - Signature Bank 2. Hotter than expected CPI 3. More rate hikes and high interest for prolonged periods.  THINGS AIN'T THAT BAD As the market processed the data from SVB fall out, it soon came to realise that things ain't that bad after all... unless you're a bank. US authorities are confirming that depositors will get their full deposits back.  That means good news for tech start ups in silicon valley. No one's going down under... Yet. [Evil]  The only losers last night were the financial institutions. Bank stocks faced sell offs yet again. No one knows if there is contagion risk and regional banks were the hardest hit. Jim Cramer must be laughing at himself now, just fr

Are you still grounded $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$?Dear SQ,Why is your stock price still stuck at $5.4 and can't break through resistance? Even worse, there's another resistance at $5.58 ahead. Take a look at the first plot if unsure.With so much turbulence, how to soar smoothly in the future?I thought you made headway with such beautiful earnings : - A Q1 net profit of S$370 million after a 14x increase in passenger traffic year on year thanks to an easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions.- Your revenue tripled to S$3.9 billion in the three months to June 30 and its quarterly operating profit of S$556 million was the second highest in the company's history. - You started ramping up capacity and expect

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$Let's focus on our own CPI before worrying about US CPI.On 23 Aug, Singapore reported core inflation (excludes private transport and accommodation) rose to 4.8% in July from 4.4% in June. This was driven by stronger electricity, food and gas prices. I appreciate the U-Save vouchers for utilities rebate very much now [Sly] - Previous high for core inflation was at 5.5% in Nov 2008.Singapore's headline consumer price index (overall inflation) rose 7% year-on-year in July, ahead of the 6.7% reported in June.It looks like Singapore's inflation has not peaked. After 23 Aug, STI dropped for two weeks, before rebounding in the past week. See First plot.- Closest r

History does not repeat. Account doing fine, not extremely high but slightly out performing S&P. Buy undervalued good stocks when they drop because of "bad" news. Google is one of them.  Getting ready for year end rally now.