Recently market has falls to its worst week in 2024. Investors are watching the yield curve inversing to positive rate. Each instances the yield curve inverted US economy falls into recession eventually and recent non farm payroll and unemployment rates beat expectation which expecting yield curve falls below negative territory but payroll for Jun and Jul data was revised to lower payroll results, pushing yield lower which resulted yield curve returning all time highs since 2022.  Investors are wary on the future of the US economy as yield curve may push the market lower. Although the current data have weaken it's nowhere near recessionary data, market may not have strength during this period. Market will shows strength once yield curve falls. Wednesday inflation data may be the key.&

Over the past few days market has been dropping to lower low. Market has not seen -2% in SPY since March 2023. Fears linger in the economy as earning may not meet expectation in the upcoming earning release and poor European nation economy data. US GDP annouce better GDP growth and shed light on investor on economy recession may not be be here. Rate cut expectation may push further into later year which mean risk on stocks will benefit. Expecting$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  to be reversing before big cap tech earning release next week. Offloading my put option on $CRWD 20240802 250.0 PUT$ and buy call option

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  How low the stock price can it be?  This stock has raise 65% YTD since the beginning of 2024. Initial price at $251 to $371 peak, currently the YTD is at $264. The stock remain positive YTD but with uncertainty of this stock, I believe stock price will continue fall to negative YTD as nobody knows what this company lies ahead. It may takes months or year once the dust settles. I will be offloading $CRWD 20240726 250.0 PUT$ at roll over to $CRWD 20240802 250.0 PUT$ with profits. My tarprice would be around $235-$240 range to offload my options. It's better to safeguard cash as

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  It's was a good stock with great future guidance but today incident has hit this great potential company hard. Company will face major lawsuit from Airlines, IT companies, Banks, Transportation company. The outlook of this company turned within a day. I wouldn't jump buying the company until lawsuit are over. Cyber security stocks gain massively from this downfall of this company. Will try some put option next week expiration $CRWD 20240726 250.0 PUT$  Will see how it works out   $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $SentinelOne, Inc(S)$ 

$ProShares Strategy(BITI)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$    The recent market has hit ATH as trader are convince rate cut will occur in June. Recent data shows high PCE and strong labour force. Oil has increase due to recent conflict which suggest higher inflation is notgoing away anytime soon. Rate cut are delayed later of this year and suggest would be 3 rate cut instead of 4. Market has priced in 4 rate cut this year and rebalancing on price action will occur. Bitcoin has reached ATH last month and monthl

Have a great weekend ahead

US bond future showing signs of strength with major push up due to failure of banks andgiant credit suisse. US 2y Bond future RSI has rarely hit above 70 points and only happen in 2008, 2018 and 2020. Bond are safe haven assets with sudden spike will cause turmoil in the market. Looking back to 2008, 2018 and 2020 bond future prices can spike quickly within month or so. I believe the treasury, FDIC and federal reserve will stabilise the banking sector coming month before unrealises losses in financial sector starting to show in Q4 to early 2024.  As for now I'm extremely bearish with the market not so much on the tech sector. The additional lending program is only a cushion on affected banks and FDIC insured $250k for mid size bank only to hold of bank runs. We hav

US 10y and 2y bond could fall off very quickly during stressful financial conditions. This could be very similar to 2008 crisis when bond prices pick up market could rally strongly and volatile. Sentimental is extremely bearish in the long term as we may see banks andfinancial institutions starting to fail with CDS raising. Federal Reserve have introduce lending program to cushion impact but if Wednesday rate hike by 0.25 or more would send bond to fall again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 

This week Federal Reserve testimony and NFP report will bring volatility in the market. Risk reward for upside is low with VIX relativity low. S&P resistant at 4770, we will see some pull back until Federal Reserve testimony. Chances of rate hike to 50bps is higher as labor market shows great strength with inflation persist. Sold calls and bought puts. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

Recent market falls is due to growing rate hike from Federal Reserve commitee members. As 50 bps rate hike is needed mention by both non-voting and voting members. Interest rate hike will be schedule on March 15-16th FOMC meeting. Tomorrow will release FOMC minutes, I believe Federal Reserve will look into February NFP report before considering 50bps rate hike. NFP and inflation data will tend to lag for a few months. Will load some calls based on VIX and DXY meeting 200 MA.  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 

The current situation in the market is unstable with treasury yield curve lowest since 1980s. Investors are fearful with recession warning signal, pushing market lower. Federal Reserve member are sure able to get soft landing but market barely pushing higher. Investors are waiting for CPI print next week. Whenever in doubt take a break and re-evaluate. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ 

Most tech stocks has drop 70% or more during aggressive rate hikes. Federal Reserve has finally given the market to push recoup losses during 2022. Federal Reserve will re-decide ideal rate hike for 2023, 2024 and 2025 during the March meeting. Slower GDP growth,mortgages and inflation will consider for the estimates in March. I personally do not think blown off top is possible in this rally as rate hike will not pause/lowered. Recouping 50% of 70% drop is possible in the short term. NFP, lower inflation data and GDP growth have to be considered.  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Palantir Technologies

The economy finally had a breather. Federal Reserve mention inflation has subside whichthe market wanted to hear. $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$  USD have broken down and may push down further which will push stock market up further. Risk-on is back. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

Fear in the market linger with tech companycontinue to suffer from aggressive fed and lower revenue. Bullish sentiment has been low, DXY continued to rally to overbought reading. Risk reward on is good on the short term. Added call option. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

S&P500 has felt pressure by the Ukraine-Russia conflict and are expected to continue until further diplomatic issue could be resolve, pushing higher on $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$. I expect it will end without war, which S&P500 can continue its bull run with market PMI well above pre-pandemic levels .It would be ideal to pick up $S&P500 ETF(SPY)$around 4320. Upcoming federal reserve rate hike would not have much impact on stocks as the market has priced in on the recent drawdown. Commodity sector looks bullish such as $Global X Uranium ETF(URA)$for this upcoming year due to growing demand but not so much on the ene