Tiger_James Ooi
Tiger_James OoiTiger Staff
Tiger Certification: Tiger Brokers Market Strategist in Singapore.
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Bearish Chart Patterns Suggest the Stock Market Selloff Isn't Over Yet

Many tech stocks (Nasdaq-100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , ARM $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ , Synopsys $Synopsys(SNPS)$ , Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , and TSMC) are forming classical reversal patterns such as Double Tops and Head & Shoulders. However, fundamentals always take precedence over technical analysis. I see no major fundamental news that would drive stocks toward their technical target prices. I reckon these are bear traps, and eventually, stocks will move higher after the U.S. presidential election on November 5th. However, bulls may only star
Bearish Chart Patterns Suggest the Stock Market Selloff Isn't Over Yet

Meituan's Stock Soars 63% from 2024 Low: What's Next?

Meituan's $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ stock has risen 45.5% since I last covered it on January 18, 2024. I believe it's a good time to revisit Meituan, particularly given its Friday closing price of HKD102.10, which is approaching the resistance level I mentioned at HKD107.91in my previous article. 4Q2023 Earnings Review: Revenue surged 22% year-over-year to RMB 73 billion in the latest quarter, while operating income reached RMB 1.7 billion compared to a loss of RMB 731 million in the corresponding period last year. Both revenue and operating income surpassed street expectations. However, the operating margin dropped to just 2.39% in 4Q2024. Operating margin was substantially higher in previous qua
Meituan's Stock Soars 63% from 2024 Low: What's Next?

James Ooi: 2024 US Market Outlook and Strategic Insights in 19 Graphs

Content: ·       2023 Recap ·       Wall Street’s S&P 500 2024 Year-end Forecasts ·       Will There be a ‘Second Wave’ of Inflation in the US? ·       When Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2024? ·       Why a March Rate Cit is still a Likely Scenario? ·       The Prediction of 6 Rate Cuts in 2024 Appears Overly Aggressive ·       Equity Risk Premium: The Stock Market Isn't Rewarding You for Taking Risk ·       Our S&P 500 2024 Year-end Forecast ·       The Fed could pull off a Soft Landing ·     &n
James Ooi: 2024 US Market Outlook and Strategic Insights in 19 Graphs

The Magnificent Seven Powers S&P 500 higher in Second Week: Is 2024 Another Blockbuster Year for AI?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ) rebounded 1.87% in the second week of Jan 2024 whereas the Magnificent Seven is responsible for 70% of the S&P 500's gains during the same period. The Magnificent Seven also drove 105% of the S&P 500's total returns year-to-date. S&P 500 returned 0.34% thus far this year. The substantial contribution of the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 500's gains indicates that 2024 could be another significant year for AI. While owning these seven stocks appears to be the market's "most crowded" trade due to their notable share price rally in 2023, they remain poised to benefit the most from the ongoing AI craze. We think that that only a few large-cap stocks are participating in the celeb
The Magnificent Seven Powers S&P 500 higher in Second Week: Is 2024 Another Blockbuster Year for AI?

Why SMCI Isn't the Stock to Play Nvidia's AI Boom?

SMCI $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ has experienced a 276% year-to-date surge, reaching USD 1074.34. Its remarkable performance is primarily attributed to: The company is poised to join the S&P 500 Index, with the effective inclusion scheduled before the opening of trading on Monday, March 18, aligning with the quarterly rebalance. The latest earnings results and forecasts have surpassed street expectations. SMCI is capitalizing on the AI spending boom, as the company sells AI server solutions, including rackmounts used for deploying AI chips. Why SMCI isn’t the stock to play the artificial intelligence revolution? Its gross profit margin and operating margin were only 15.4% and 10.14%, respectively, while Nvidia's gross profit margin and op
Why SMCI Isn't the Stock to Play Nvidia's AI Boom?

Intel stock jumped 9% on Friday on reports that the company might sell or spin off its foundry business

I remain pessimistic about Intel. Investing in or trading Intel simply isn't worth the risk. Intel’s Foundry segment has a staggering operating margin of -65.5%, meaning that for every $10,000 wafer sold, Intel incurs a loss of $6,550. In contrast, TSMC boasts an impressive operating margin of 42.55%. Therefore, I doubt any company would be interested in acquiring a foundry business with a -65.5% operating margin, nor do I believe investors would want to invest in Intel to become future shareholders of a spun-off foundry company that is deep in losses. Investors should favor TSMC, Broadcom, Nvidia, ARM, ASML, and AMD instead.
Intel stock jumped 9% on Friday on reports that the company might sell or spin off its foundry business

Has Alibaba Stock Finally Bottomed?

Share Price Performance: The U.S.-listed Alibaba ( $Alibaba(BABA)$ ) fell 5.32%, while HK-listed Alibaba ( $Alibaba(09988)$ ) fell 6.35% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has posted a -15.05% return year-to-date. However, BABA is currently trading at USD 73.39, which is still down 77% from its all-time high of USD 317. Source: Bloomberg, 14 Feb 2024 Technical Analysis: There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern in the making, which will be fully formed once it breaks above the neckline at USD78. The earlier inverted head and shoulders pattern successfully formed and propelled Alibaba's stock price to USD 119 in early 2023. While this pattern has worked well for Alibaba in t
Has Alibaba Stock Finally Bottomed?

Tencent: Sluggish Gaming Growth, But Advertising Comes to the Rescue

4Q2023 Earnings Review: Tencent’s $TENCENT(00700)$ Revenue increased by 7.07%, and Operating Income rose by 41.96% year-over-year in the latest quarter. The Operating Margin stands at 26.28% for FY2023, the highest in the past six years. VAS revenue shrank by 1.9% year-over-year, while Online Advertising and Fintech & Business Services grew by 20.82% and 15.1% year-over-year respectively in the latest quarter. Moving forward, we expect the weakness in VAS (especially weak gaming revenue) to be offset by margin expansion in Online Advertising and Fintech & Business Services. VAS revenue, accounting for 45% of total revenue, continues its lackluster performance mainly due to lower domestic gaming revenue and decreased Social Networks revenu
Tencent: Sluggish Gaming Growth, But Advertising Comes to the Rescue

Apple stock fell 14% from its ATH. How low can Apple stock go?

Stock Performance: Apple ( $Apple(AAPL)$ ) stock has experienced a 14% decline from its all-time high (ATH) and an 11% decrease year-to-date. The underperformance, particularly in comparison to other Magnificent Seven stocks, can be attributed to several factors: Analysts downgraded Apple stock. Counterpoint Research reported a 24% year-on-year drop in iPhone sales, while Huawei's smartphone sales saw a notable 64% year-on-year increase in the first six weeks of 2024. Source: Countetpoint Technical Analysis: A Double Tops reversal pattern is currently forming, with a target price of USD133.03 anticipated once the stock breaks below the neckline at USD165.24. Considering the weak candlestick pattern, it is plausible that Apple stock might challenge
Apple stock fell 14% from its ATH. How low can Apple stock go?

S&P 500 is near its all time high. No need to panic?

The S&P 500 has not undergone a correction of more than 2% since reaching its October low last year. This pattern suggests that investors may have succumbed to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and engaged in panic buying, particularly due to optimism regarding artificial intelligence (AI). It is anticipated that investors’ concerns and unease may only arise if a correction exceeding 2% occurs within the current year. Fibonacci Expansion still indicates a S&P 500 target price of 6118 for the entire bull run. Nevertheless, the S&P 500  may encounter a strong resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 5115, potentially leading to a decline to the 50% Fibonacci level at 4805. Despite the possibility of facing these resistance levels, there is currently no significant shift in
S&P 500 is near its all time high. No need to panic?

[In-person Seminar] US Market Outlook: Further Gains in 2H2024?

Synopsis The US equity markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite prolonged high interest rates and election uncertainty. The S&P 500 has gained 11% this year through the end of May, mainly driven by earnings growth and AI optimism. The main AI beneficiary, NVIDIA, has also returned 121% during the same period. While it is a NVIDIA world, we are just living in it; we still aim to explore other AI stocks that are poised to benefit from the AI optimism in this seminar. Join James Ooi from Tiger Brokers as he explores investment strategies for the second half of 2024: What downside risks could cause a market correction? What catalysts could send stocks higher in 2H2024? Which stocks are poised to benefit from the AI revolution? Please click link below to register for the in-p
[In-person Seminar] US Market Outlook: Further Gains in 2H2024?

Microsoft Beats Q2 Earnings. Where Is the Stock Headed?

Share Price Performance: Microsoft ($Microsoft(MSFT)$ ) has soared 8.66% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, which have posted returns of 3.34% and 3.91% YTD, respectively. Microsoft's stock has increased by 90.71% from its 2022 low, rising from USD 214.25 to the current share price of USD 408.59. In after-hours trading, its share price is currently at a -0.28% loss, trading at USD 407.64. 2Q 2024 Earnings Call: Both Microsoft’s revenue and EPS beat street expectations. Revenue: $62.02 billion vs. $61.12 billion (Beat by 1.5%) EPS: $2.93 vs. $2.78 expected (Beat by 5.4%) Azure YoY Growth: +30% vs +27.7% expected Guidance: While revenue from the Productivity and Business Processes unit, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal C
Microsoft Beats Q2 Earnings. Where Is the Stock Headed?

TSMC Fell 16% from ATH. Is TSMC Running Out of Steam?

TSMC has fallen 16.11% to $160.28 from its all-time high of $191.05. However, the year-to-date return of 54% suggests that TSMC is likely experiencing an overdue temporary correction rather than a long-term downtrend. What You Need to Know About TSMC: 1) US Wants Tougher Trade Restrictions on China The recent panic sell-off is mostly due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. According to Bloomberg, the Biden administration is considering more restrictive trade policies on advanced chip technology to China, which will negatively impact companies like TSMC. Trump recently commented that Taiwan should pay the US for protection and claimed Taiwan has taken "about 100%" of America’s semiconductor business. China now accounts for 16% of TSMC's total net sales in 2Q2024, marking a
TSMC Fell 16% from ATH. Is TSMC Running Out of Steam?

Major Indices Typically Generate Positive Returns In The Year Of The Dragon

It is also important to note that the S&P 500 underperformed all other indices mentioned above in the last Year of the Dragon, which was 2012. Thus, it might be wise to include some of the Asia Index ETFs in one's portfolio this year. $TRACKER FUND(02800)$ $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $CSOP NIKKEI225(03153)$
Major Indices Typically Generate Positive Returns In The Year Of The Dragon

Apple Stock Falls, But Keep Calm and HODL?

Share Price Performance: Apple( $Apple(AAPL)$ ), Amazon( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ), and Meta( $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ) all announced earnings after the market closed on Thursday. In summary, investors cheers on Meta’s best quarterly sales growth in more than two years, along with dividend announcements and share buybacks, while Amazon surprises investors on the upside with its advertising and AWS growth. In after-hours trading, Apple showed weaker performance compared to Meta and Amazon, experiencing a 2.9% decline, while Meta posted a 15.22% increase and Amazon posted a 7.1% uptick. Apple's investors are expressing concerns about the decline in sales in China,
Apple Stock Falls, But Keep Calm and HODL?

2Q 2024 Earnings Preview: Can AI Boost Tesla, Amazon, and Apple Earnings?

Synopsis: Are AI stocks trading at unreasonably expensive valuations? Could the upcoming earnings reports from Tesla, Amazon, and Apple boost their stock prices? What are the risks, given that their prices have soared from their 2023 lows? Please click here to access the webinar on July 16th at 7.30 pm.
2Q 2024 Earnings Preview: Can AI Boost Tesla, Amazon, and Apple Earnings?

How High Can ARM Stock Rise?

Arm( $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ ) stock has surged by 93.44% over the past three trading days, reaching a current price of USD148.97, nearly triple its IPO price of USD51 per share.The rally can be attributed to its recent earnings call, which highlighted the following factors:Better-than-expected earnings for 3Q2024, primarily fueled by Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand..Forecasted EPS for 4Q2024 to range between 28 cents and 32 cents, compared to the expected 21 cents, and sales projected to be between $850 million and $900 million, exceeding the anticipated $780 million.Arm announced the possibility of doubling charges for its latest instruction set, which contributes 15% of the company's royalties.Will SoftBank Sell its ARM stake?Arm is still 90
How High Can ARM Stock Rise?

Nvidia May Have Found Its Interim Bottom

Nvidia has corrected as much as 24.48% from its all-time high of $140.76. Its current price of $112.28 is still trading 20.23% lower than its all-time high.  Why $106.30 Could Be the Interim Bottom for Nvidia? 1) 127.2% Fibonacci Extension Support Level: Fibonacci Extension suggests a major support level at $107.25 (127.2% Fibonacci level). Yesterday's intraday low hit this level and rebounded to $112.28, indicating that the 127.2% Fibonacci level may hold (see Graph 1). Source: Tiger Brokers 2) Doji Reversal: Yesterday's candlestick formed a classic single doji reversal pattern (see Graph 2). Source: Tiger Brokers 3) Closing the Gap: The low of $106.30 may represent bears trying to close the previous gap at $106.47 from May 24 (see Graph 2). 4) 38.2% Fibonacci Extension Level: Fibon
Nvidia May Have Found Its Interim Bottom

US Market Insights (16-20 Dec): Bracing for a Santa Claus Rally

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -0.61% and +0.75%, respectively, last week.Major market movers include $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-5.75%), $Adobe(ADBE)$ (-15.78%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (-4.35%), $Oracle(ORCL)$ (-9.55%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (+25.22%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+12.08%), $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (+8.77%), and $ba(+10.21%).Important economic events this week include Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI on Monday, Ret
US Market Insights (16-20 Dec): Bracing for a Santa Claus Rally

Could TSMC be the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven?

When investors think of the Magnificent Seven, they will primarily associate it with large-cap stocks that delivered outsized returns in 2023, driven by optimism in AI. Therefore, TSMC( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ), the large-cap AI chip maker, has the potential to be named as the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven if it delivers a similar outsized return as we have seen in the Magnificent Seven. Key takeaways from Q4 earnings results 4Q2023's revenue declined 0% year-on-year to TWD 625 billion, while operating income fell 19.95% year-on-year to TWD 260 billion. However, investors are optimistic as they may have witnessed the worst year-on-year decline in revenue and operating income, with growth rates at -19.93% and -26.5
Could TSMC be the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven?

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