Tiger_James Ooi
Tiger_James OoiTiger Staff
Tiger Certification: Tiger Brokers Market Strategist in Singapore.
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Meituan's Stock Soars 63% from 2024 Low: What's Next?

Meituan's $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ stock has risen 45.5% since I last covered it on January 18, 2024. I believe it's a good time to revisit Meituan, particularly given its Friday closing price of HKD102.10, which is approaching the resistance level I mentioned at HKD107.91in my previous article. 4Q2023 Earnings Review: Revenue surged 22% year-over-year to RMB 73 billion in the latest quarter, while operating income reached RMB 1.7 billion compared to a loss of RMB 731 million in the corresponding period last year. Both revenue and operating income surpassed street expectations. However, the operating margin dropped to just 2.39% in 4Q2024. Operating margin was substantially higher in previous
Meituan's Stock Soars 63% from 2024 Low: What's Next?

James Ooi: 2024 US Market Outlook and Strategic Insights in 19 Graphs

Content: ·       2023 Recap ·       Wall Street’s S&P 500 2024 Year-end Forecasts ·       Will There be a ‘Second Wave’ of Inflation in the US? ·       When Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2024? ·       Why a March Rate Cit is still a Likely Scenario? ·       The Prediction of 6 Rate Cuts in 2024 Appears Overly Aggressive ·       Equity Risk Premium: The Stock Market Isn't Rewarding You for Taking Risk ·       Our S&P 500 2024 Year-end Forecast ·       The Fed could pull off a Soft Landing ·     &n
James Ooi: 2024 US Market Outlook and Strategic Insights in 19 Graphs

The Magnificent Seven Powers S&P 500 higher in Second Week: Is 2024 Another Blockbuster Year for AI?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ) rebounded 1.87% in the second week of Jan 2024 whereas the Magnificent Seven is responsible for 70% of the S&P 500's gains during the same period. The Magnificent Seven also drove 105% of the S&P 500's total returns year-to-date. S&P 500 returned 0.34% thus far this year. The substantial contribution of the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 500's gains indicates that 2024 could be another significant year for AI. While owning these seven stocks appears to be the market's "most crowded" trade due to their notable share price rally in 2023, they remain poised to benefit the most from the ongoing AI craze. We think that that only a few large-cap stocks are participating in the celeb
The Magnificent Seven Powers S&P 500 higher in Second Week: Is 2024 Another Blockbuster Year for AI?

Why SMCI Isn't the Stock to Play Nvidia's AI Boom?

SMCI $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ has experienced a 276% year-to-date surge, reaching USD 1074.34. Its remarkable performance is primarily attributed to: The company is poised to join the S&P 500 Index, with the effective inclusion scheduled before the opening of trading on Monday, March 18, aligning with the quarterly rebalance. The latest earnings results and forecasts have surpassed street expectations. SMCI is capitalizing on the AI spending boom, as the company sells AI server solutions, including rackmounts used for deploying AI chips. Why SMCI isn’t the stock to play the artificial intelligence revolution? Its gross profit margin and operating margin were only 15.4% and 10.14%, respectively, while Nvidia's gross profit margin
Why SMCI Isn't the Stock to Play Nvidia's AI Boom?

Has Alibaba Stock Finally Bottomed?

Share Price Performance: The U.S.-listed Alibaba ( $Alibaba(BABA)$ ) fell 5.32%, while HK-listed Alibaba ( $Alibaba(09988)$ ) fell 6.35% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has posted a -15.05% return year-to-date. However, BABA is currently trading at USD 73.39, which is still down 77% from its all-time high of USD 317. Source: Bloomberg, 14 Feb 2024 Technical Analysis: There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern in the making, which will be fully formed once it breaks above the neckline at USD78. The earlier inverted head and shoulders pattern successfully formed and propelled Alibaba's stock price to USD 119 in early 2023. While this pattern has worked well for Alibaba
Has Alibaba Stock Finally Bottomed?

Tencent: Sluggish Gaming Growth, But Advertising Comes to the Rescue

4Q2023 Earnings Review: Tencent’s $TENCENT(00700)$ Revenue increased by 7.07%, and Operating Income rose by 41.96% year-over-year in the latest quarter. The Operating Margin stands at 26.28% for FY2023, the highest in the past six years. VAS revenue shrank by 1.9% year-over-year, while Online Advertising and Fintech & Business Services grew by 20.82% and 15.1% year-over-year respectively in the latest quarter. Moving forward, we expect the weakness in VAS (especially weak gaming revenue) to be offset by margin expansion in Online Advertising and Fintech & Business Services. VAS revenue, accounting for 45% of total revenue, continues its lackluster performance mainly due to lower domestic gaming revenue and decreased Social Networks re
Tencent: Sluggish Gaming Growth, But Advertising Comes to the Rescue

Apple stock fell 14% from its ATH. How low can Apple stock go?

Stock Performance: Apple ( $Apple(AAPL)$ ) stock has experienced a 14% decline from its all-time high (ATH) and an 11% decrease year-to-date. The underperformance, particularly in comparison to other Magnificent Seven stocks, can be attributed to several factors: Analysts downgraded Apple stock. Counterpoint Research reported a 24% year-on-year drop in iPhone sales, while Huawei's smartphone sales saw a notable 64% year-on-year increase in the first six weeks of 2024. Source: Countetpoint Technical Analysis: A Double Tops reversal pattern is currently forming, with a target price of USD133.03 anticipated once the stock breaks below the neckline at USD165.24. Considering the weak candlestick pattern, it is plausible that Apple stock might
Apple stock fell 14% from its ATH. How low can Apple stock go?

S&P 500 is near its all time high. No need to panic?

The S&P 500 has not undergone a correction of more than 2% since reaching its October low last year. This pattern suggests that investors may have succumbed to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and engaged in panic buying, particularly due to optimism regarding artificial intelligence (AI). It is anticipated that investors’ concerns and unease may only arise if a correction exceeding 2% occurs within the current year. Fibonacci Expansion still indicates a S&P 500 target price of 6118 for the entire bull run. Nevertheless, the S&P 500  may encounter a strong resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 5115, potentially leading to a decline to the 50% Fibonacci level at 4805. Despite the possibility of facing these resistance levels, there is currently no significant shift
S&P 500 is near its all time high. No need to panic?

Microsoft Beats Q2 Earnings. Where Is the Stock Headed?

Share Price Performance: Microsoft ($Microsoft(MSFT)$ ) has soared 8.66% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, which have posted returns of 3.34% and 3.91% YTD, respectively. Microsoft's stock has increased by 90.71% from its 2022 low, rising from USD 214.25 to the current share price of USD 408.59. In after-hours trading, its share price is currently at a -0.28% loss, trading at USD 407.64. 2Q 2024 Earnings Call: Both Microsoft’s revenue and EPS beat street expectations. Revenue: $62.02 billion vs. $61.12 billion (Beat by 1.5%) EPS: $2.93 vs. $2.78 expected (Beat by 5.4%) Azure YoY Growth: +30% vs +27.7% expected Guidance: While revenue from the Productivity and Business Processes unit, Intelligent Cloud, and More Pers
Microsoft Beats Q2 Earnings. Where Is the Stock Headed?

Major Indices Typically Generate Positive Returns In The Year Of The Dragon

It is also important to note that the S&P 500 underperformed all other indices mentioned above in the last Year of the Dragon, which was 2012. Thus, it might be wise to include some of the Asia Index ETFs in one's portfolio this year. $TRACKER FUND(02800)$ $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $CSOP NIKKEI225(03153)$
Major Indices Typically Generate Positive Returns In The Year Of The Dragon

Apple Stock Falls, But Keep Calm and HODL?

Share Price Performance: Apple( $Apple(AAPL)$ ), Amazon( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ), and Meta( $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ) all announced earnings after the market closed on Thursday. In summary, investors cheers on Meta’s best quarterly sales growth in more than two years, along with dividend announcements and share buybacks, while Amazon surprises investors on the upside with its advertising and AWS growth. In after-hours trading, Apple showed weaker performance compared to Meta and Amazon, experiencing a 2.9% decline, while Meta posted a 15.22% increase and Amazon posted a 7.1% uptick. Apple's investors are expressing concerns about the decline in sales in China
Apple Stock Falls, But Keep Calm and HODL?

How High Can ARM Stock Rise?

Arm( $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ ) stock has surged by 93.44% over the past three trading days, reaching a current price of USD148.97, nearly triple its IPO price of USD51 per share.The rally can be attributed to its recent earnings call, which highlighted the following factors:Better-than-expected earnings for 3Q2024, primarily fueled by Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand..Forecasted EPS for 4Q2024 to range between 28 cents and 32 cents, compared to the expected 21 cents, and sales projected to be between $850 million and $900 million, exceeding the anticipated $780 million.Arm announced the possibility of doubling charges for its latest instruction set, which contributes 15% of the company's royalties.Will SoftBank Sell its ARM stake?Arm is still 90
How High Can ARM Stock Rise?
avatarTiger_James Ooi
05-16 11:01

Webinar: Can Nvidia and AI ETFs live up to the hype?

Key Topics: Earnings preview of the leading chipmaker – Nvidia. Nvidia has provided an average yearly return of 71% over the last 10 years. What lies ahead? AI-related ETFs (AIQ, SMH, IGPT) are poised to benefit from the AI optimism. Please click here to access the webinar on May 16th at 7.30 pm.
Webinar: Can Nvidia and AI ETFs live up to the hype?

Could TSMC be the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven?

When investors think of the Magnificent Seven, they will primarily associate it with large-cap stocks that delivered outsized returns in 2023, driven by optimism in AI. Therefore, TSMC( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ), the large-cap AI chip maker, has the potential to be named as the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven if it delivers a similar outsized return as we have seen in the Magnificent Seven. Key takeaways from Q4 earnings results 4Q2023's revenue declined 0% year-on-year to TWD 625 billion, while operating income fell 19.95% year-on-year to TWD 260 billion. However, investors are optimistic as they may have witnessed the worst year-on-year decline in revenue and operating income, with growth rates at -19.93% and -26
Could TSMC be the eighth company added to the Magnificent Seven?

Webinar: Can the Magnificent Seven save your stock portfolio in 2024?

Please click here to access the webinar on February 7th at 7:30 pm.
Webinar: Can the Magnificent Seven save your stock portfolio in 2024?
After a 6.4% jump in Nvidia’s share price yesterday, Nvidia($英伟达(NVDA)$ ) rises 0.4% to USD524.5 in the pre-market. This is its third time closing above USD500, and hopefully, the third time's a charm. Its 5.5% year-to-date rise is partially due to: 1) Nvidia launching three graphics cards designed to run artificial intelligence (AI) applications locally. 2) It is rumored that Nvidia plans to supply AI chips in Q2 designed for China to comply with U.S. export rules. 3) Some analysts recently raised their outlook on Nvidia. The current 12-month Bloomberg consensus target price is $648.27, representing an upside of 24%. 4)Nancy Pelosi bought 50 Nvidia Call Options with a strike price of $120 and an expiration date of 20 Dec 2024. Es

Is It Time to Invest in Meituan After Its 84% Crash?

Source: Tiger Brokers, 18 Jan 2024 Short Term Trading Idea based on Technical Analysis: The Meituan’s ( $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ ) share price may have found its bottom near HKD 68.6 based on Technical Analysis. A strong support level may be forming at the Fibonacci extension level of 141.4%, priced at HKD 68.6. The recent low was HKD68.15. We consider yesterday’s close above HKD 68.6 as a positive trade signal, indicating that the share price may gain some upward momentum. The targeted profit is at the Fibonacci extension level of 127.2%, priced at HKD 107.91. A suggested stop-loss could be placed at the 2019 peak at HKD 64.60.   Bloomberg analysts' consensus still recommends a buy with a 12-month target price of HKD 153.92, indicating a potent
Is It Time to Invest in Meituan After Its 84% Crash?

Meta Platforms fell 10% since earnings announcement. Can Meta make a comeback?

Meta stock is currently trading 15.94% lower than its all-time high. Despite the recent 10% drop on earnings result day, Meta stock is still trading 12.29% higher than its 4Q2023 earnings release on February 1st. This indicates that the recent pessimism hasn't completely erased the gains it generated since the 4Q2023 earnings results. 1Q2024 Earnings Result: Revenue: USD36.46 billion vs. USD36.16 billion expected EPS: USD4.71 vs. USD4.32 expected Source: Reuters Source: Meta's Earnings Slides The 10% drop in stock price on earnings day were due to: Weaker earnings forecast: 2Q2024 total revenue is expected to fall within the range of $36.5 billion to $39 billion, with a midpoint of $37.8 billion. This misses the street estimate of $38.3 billion. Additionally, management anticipates a
Meta Platforms fell 10% since earnings announcement. Can Meta make a comeback?

Another Week of AI Optimism: The Magnificent Seven Lifts S&P 500 in the Third Week

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF recorded a 1.18% increase in the third week of January 2024 and a year-to-date rise of 1.53%. The Magnificent Seven is responsible for 69% of the S&P 500's gains in the third week of 2024 and 77% of the S&P 500's year-to-date return. This indicates a lack of breadth in the US equity market, with the majority still being driven by the AI theme. Noteworthy stocks that outperformed the broader market and significantly contributed to the S&P 500's year-to-date return include Broadcom, AMD, and Eli Lilly. Both Broadcom and AMD ( $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ ) are reaping the benefits of the AI craze. AMD's AI chips serve as a viable alternative to Nvidia's, suggesting that AMD may continue its upward trajectory in 2
Another Week of AI Optimism: The Magnificent Seven Lifts S&P 500 in the Third Week
avatarTiger_James Ooi
05-14 17:32

Quick Thoughts on Why the US Needs to Cut Rates Soon

This is an important week for the US as it will announce PPI data on Tuesday and CPI data on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on Tuesday, and he is expected to stick to his higher-for-longer script. I reckon that any market correction due to a hotter-than-expected inflation surprise may provide investors and traders with an accumulation opportunity, as I think interest rate cuts are still on the way. The bigger narrative here is that default and refinancing risks are increasing for US companies, especially for speculative-grade firms, over the next several years. Speculative-grade companies, also known as non-investment grade or junk-rated companies, will face $2 trillion in debt maturing from 2024 to 2028. The year-over-year growth rates of speculative-grad
Quick Thoughts on Why the US Needs to Cut Rates Soon

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