Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊
Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊Certificated Individuals
Tiger Certification: Editor/Analyst @Stansberry focus on China, Asia, Tech, Energy, Commodities, Macro.
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Here's what happened in China markets today (7/20)

1. Tourist arrivals in #Macau, the gambling Mecca of Asia, hit 2.2 million in June. That was 71% of pre-pandemic levels for the same month in 2019. For the first 6 months of the year, tourist arrivals reached 13 million, or about 70% of pre-pandemic levels. There’s definitely a significant level of improvement in the territory’s tourism-driven economy following several years of lockdowns, which closed off Macau to both mainland Chinese and international tourists.#Casino operators are spending billions to reinvent themselves into more family-oriented establishments after Beijing’s crackdown on junket operators with a reputation for aiding illicit money flows out of China. S&P Global estimates Macau’s total Gross Gaming Revenues (GGR) to reach 75% to 85% of 2019 levels, which would indic
Here's what happened in China markets today (7/20)

Here's what happened in China markets today (7/17)

1. #China released its 2nd quarter #GDP growth, which came in at 6.3%. That was significantly lower than expectations of 6.8% to 7.0% growth. The growth vs. the previous quarter was 0.8%, indicating a slowdown from the 2.2% growth registered in the 1st quarter. The economy remains on shaky footing as the real estate and manufacturing sector have been struggling. The fact that China had its slowest GDP growth of just 0.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2022, indicating a lower base, shows us just how difficult a job President Xi has ahead of him to get China’s economy on track to attain their target 5% GDP growth for the full year. However, this increases the likelihood of Beijing enacting more forceful stimulus in the coming days and weeks. If they fail to announce anything new and significant, it
Here's what happened in China markets today (7/17)

Driven by Temu, $PDD just Doubled QoQ and Surged in Price

BREAKING NEWS: $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ 3Q23 Results are out! And they're blazing hot. Revenue +94% to $9.44B vs. $7.42B est. (BEAT!) Rev from Transaction Svcs +315% to $4.0B Adjusted EPS +35% to $1.55 vs. $1.16 est. (BEAT!)Is this mainly being driven by Temu payment processing? It just doubled QoQ! At a $16 billion run-rate! Image $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ shares surge as Temu owner tops earnings estimatesPE ratio of four companies: $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ , $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ , $JD.com(JD)$ This one is becoming a new mar
Driven by Temu, $PDD just Doubled QoQ and Surged in Price

Here's what happened in China's markets today (11/6)

Asia markets: Hang Seng jumps, Caixin PMI below 50, RBA raises rates1. China’s urban employment was stable for the first 9 months of the year despite the weaker overall environment.Every year, Beijing is under enormous pressure to ensure there are enough jobs to satisfy its swelling workforce as around 10 million new graduates enter the job market. For the year until September 30, #China’s urban employment grew 10.22 million, attaining 85% of its annual target of 12 million new jobs. That pushed urban unemployment rate to 5%. While China has ceased publishing youth unemployment rate, improvement in youth employment was seen improving, possibly owing to stronger hiring in China’s tech sector. $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ ,
Here's what happened in China's markets today (11/6)

Demand for APPLE's new flagship smartphone remains weaker than expected

News: $JD.com(JD)$'s Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ franchise store offers higher price cuts in the iPhone 15 series than Tmall during the 'Double Eleven' shopping festival, which is the first cut in one of the official supply channels ever seen.ImageMy comment:JD's stores cut $Apple(AAPL)$ 's #iPhone15 prices deeper than those in $Alibaba(BABA)$ 's TMall. Indicative of weaker-than-expected demand for the new flagship smartphone despite a foreseen recovery in industry sales in 4Q (i.e. Golden Week sales +15% YoY).
Demand for APPLE's new flagship smartphone remains weaker than expected

Beijing will take more urgent measures to shore up the real estate industry

News:My comment: Strengthening supervision of financial markets doesn't equate to "tightening grip". One can only expect regulatory environment to increase during times of stress to keep tabs on the health of the system. The important thing to watch out for are signs that Beijing is taking more urgent measures to shore up the real estate industry and hopefully signs of continued opening up of the capital markets. $Global X MSCI China Real Estate ETF(CHIR)$ , $Global X China Financials ETF(CHIX)$ , $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$
Beijing will take more urgent measures to shore up the real estate industry

My ETFs Watch List of Semiconductor & Gaming Entertainment Industry

I don't think the AI wave is finished. I think the beat on earnings of $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ proved another blowout quarter, and the indications are even for more of the same in the coming quarters, however.We have $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$and company $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ having more than tripled so far this year. It tells you how young the market is because a lot of most of the money is just going into a few names that are already established.So as the industry matures, you will start to see money flow out of these already very profitable positions into those new up-and-coming names.So it's not yet over with AI investments about to hit $200 billion by 2025. So, these are ind
My ETFs Watch List of Semiconductor & Gaming Entertainment Industry

Hong Kong has one of its best days of the year, a lot of value to be found in Asia right now

Hi Tigers, I'm very honored and fortunate to be given the chance to share my personal views and opinions about the markets to a growing base of educated online investors here in Tiger. I hope that I can be a positive force on this platform through the analysis I provide given my extensive experience in the industry and personal connection with the Asian markets.I am the only Asia-based analyst at Stansberry Research and I have over 25 years of experience in the Asian markets. My educational background is in Economics and I started investing in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis. I was an investment analyst with BNP Paribas in Asia. I use a top-down strategy to identifying investment opportunities, looking at the macro fundamentals driving markets and then zeroing in on the ri
Hong Kong has one of its best days of the year, a lot of value to be found in Asia right now

The AI Feast Continues! Bullish Reasons & Stock Opportunities in H2 2023

Last Thursday, I was invited to show on Tiger Live and along with another guest, @KevinChenNYC provided some insights into recent trends in the U.S. stock markets and opportunities for the industry. Below are my points to 7 questions investors might be interested in, covering the current trend, the Fed's interest rate path next month, industrial and stocks that could have potential in H22023, and my friendly trading tips for investors.Welcome to review the highlights of my sharing or watch the replay of the live.Tiger Trade Q1: Has the "August curse" occurred or are there other macro factors, even black swans? Should investors be bearish or bullish on the market in the third quarter or second half of 2023?Brian Tycangco: We saw a pullb
The AI Feast Continues! Bullish Reasons & Stock Opportunities in H2 2023

$NIO Sept deliveries +44% YoY, -19.1% MoM

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Sept deliveries +44% YoY, -19.1% MoM. Impact of 30k yuan price cut in mid-June seen in sales but how it impacts overall profitability remains the big concern.”Some argue that Nio is treading a financial tightrope to chase its long-term vision. But the company’s CEO, William Li, remains resolute about its future prospects.”Chinese multinational automobile company Nio has invested over RMB 3 billion in R&D for consecutive quarters, accounting for over 20% of its revenue. The result? Substantial losses in excess of RMB 6 billion, setting a gloomy tone for Nio’s R&D efforts. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ ’s heavy outlay on R&D in recent quarters forms part of a broader m
$NIO Sept deliveries +44% YoY, -19.1% MoM

The 31 measures proposed by the Central Committee all sound good on paper

$HSI(HSI)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ $Global X China Financials ETF(CHIX)$ $Global X MSCI China Real Estate ETF(CHIR)$ $KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ The 31 measures proposed by the Central Committee all sound good on paper. Support for both public and private sectors is always welcome, especially when it comes to creating a level playing field and fair competition. I think the problem is execution. There's been plently of talk but not enough action on the part of the government to restore confidence in the markets and business community. They cannot expect t
The 31 measures proposed by the Central Committee all sound good on paper

Comment on the rumors that Ping An Insurance could acquire a majority stake in Country Garden

#IMPORTANT $Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Ltd.(PNGAY)$ $Global X MSCI China Real Estate ETF(CHIR)$ $Country Garden Holdings Co., Ltd.(CTRYY)$ $COUNTRY GARDEN(02007)$ Reuters just reported that Beijing has asked Ping An Insurance to take a controlling stake in Country Garden. #CN_Note Ping An Insurance has 5.31% common shares of Country Garden now, according to the latest data. #China #CountryGarden #Property #RealestateImageMy comment:Rumors of Beijing instructing Ping An to take a controlling stake in Country Garden are making the rounds in Hong Kong. Ping An denied the rumor. Over the years, Ping An had
Comment on the rumors that Ping An Insurance could acquire a majority stake in Country Garden

China's property sector is pulling back away from the abyss.

China's property sector is pulling back away from the abyss. Beijing is starting to bring out the bigger guns to ensure this sector doesn't derail the economy's more gradual growth outlook. Stable financing to builders + low cost financing to homebuyers + Singapore-style mass housing devt program. Sunac China jumps 8% in Hong Kong as the property developer is expected to satisfy restructuring conditions.Image
China's property sector is pulling back away from the abyss.

What Happened in China Markets Today (7/7)

US Treasury Secretary #Yellen says the Biden administration is seeking healthy economic competition and better communication with China, while taking appropriate measures to defend national security. She indicated her trip was meant to avoid misunderstanding or miscommunication between the two nations. Yellen has been less supportive of a confrontational approach to China in favor of a benign rivalry. US #PCAOB audit officials reported to have started a new round of inspections of US-listed companies over the past few weeks. The PCAOB sent a team to HK to review the 2022 audit reports of close to a dozen companies, including Tencent Music $ $Tencent Music(TME)$ , $DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$ , and
What Happened in China Markets Today (7/7)

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ down almost 14% pre-market on ER

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ down almost 14% pre-market on ER.$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ 2Q24 Results:* Revenue +86% to $13.35B vs. $13.97 expected (MISS)* Basic EPS +140% to $3.18 vs. $2.61 expected (BEAT)* Adjusted EPS +122% to $3.20 vs. $2.79 expected (BEAT)* TTM adjusted EPS = $10.10* TTM PE Ratio = 13.9XBUT... "We see many challenges ahead... transitioning towards high-quality development... prepared to accept short-term sacrifices and potential decline in profitability.""Looking ahead, our revenue growth will inevitably face pressure... profitability will also likely to be impacted. as we continue to invest."$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ slight miss on revenue though adjust
$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ down almost 14% pre-market on ER

Very strong rally in $HSTECH today following Thursday's tentative bounce

Very strong rally in $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ today following Thursday's tentative bounce. We broke through that downtrend and looks like another 10% move higher - a move that's been known to happen in just 2 to 3 days. Strong EV sales and news of pension funds and insurance companies buying into the stock market fueling optimism. Still a lot of headwinds. We need to get past this earnings season with better guidance from companies like $Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ , $Baidu(BIDU)$ , $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ ,
Very strong rally in $HSTECH today following Thursday's tentative bounce
BREAKING: Japan's stock-market posts worst losses since 1987. $Japanese Yen - main 2409(JPYmain)$ $Japanese Yen - Sep 2024(JPY2409)$ ImagePerhaps it’s this kind of incredible bubble-popping wealth-destruction that Beijing has been wanting to avoid all this time. You know, the kind of massive declines that end companies, collapse financial systems, and endanger the real economy. They were smart to rein in margin trading early on.I believe it’s this cautious approach to the capital markets that will see Chinese markets outperform their global peers this year as the massive yen carry trade unwinds. As a side note, to all those people making decisions at the BoJ that led us to this: QUIT.

Meituan reports 3rd consecutive profitable quarter, sales up 22%

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ $MEITUAN(MPNGY)$ 3Q Results Out: Revenue +22.1% to RMB 76.5B vs. RMB 76B est. (BEAT) Adjusted NPAT +62.4% to RMB 5.7B vs. RMB 5.3B est. (BEAT)Meituan reported a bigger-than-expected 22% rise in third-quarter revenue, China’s largest food delivery firm extended its recovery from the global health crisis impact of last year.I'm wondering how this can't be manipulation. Meituan crashed in the AM on light volume, only to be bought at the lows on high volume and in the run-up to the close (look at the vol spike). Then the company announces massive 3Q earnings beat 35 mins after the end of the day.
Meituan reports 3rd consecutive profitable quarter, sales up 22%

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