Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

Comment, Retweet & Win Tiger Coins! [Call][USD][USD] Hey traders! Today’s X (Twitter) feed is blowing up with game-changing charts—from the Fed’s dot plot shift to oil’s historic rally and the yen’s collapse. We’ve rounded up the TOP 10 must-see financial charts, with clear explanations to help you decode market trends. Join the discussion, share your take, and earn easy Tiger Coins! Top 10 Must-See Financial Charts on X (Twitter) Today Fed Dot Plot Distribution Change (Source: @MacroMicroMe) Chart Explanation: Comparing the December 2025 and March 2026 dot plots, most officials have shifted from 2 rate cuts to just 1. Oil Price Monthly Gain (Source: @GoodReturns) Chart Explanation: Brent crude has surged 43.6% in March, jumping from $77 to $110—a new high for the biggest monthly gain

The market initially seemed to expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption to fade quickly, much like last year’s Iranian missile retaliation, but that has not happened. Shipping disruptions have persisted, oil has surged, and investors are paying much closer attention to the inflation and growth risks that come with a prolonged energy shock. What has changed even more is the dollar. After spending much of the past year in a weak trend, the greenback has started to behave very differently since the Strait disruption. With higher oil feeding inflation concerns, rate-cut expectations for this year have been pushed back sharply, and the market is now pricing in very little easing from the Fed, which is helping support dollar demand. If the next Fed chair also turns out to be more focused on balanc

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

In July 2025, the European Central Bank held interest rates steady, yet the euro sharply depreciated against the U.S. dollar, falling as much as 1.2% in a single day.At first glance, the situation seems puzzling: the market strongly expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September, while the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Europe. Normally, a narrowing interest rate differential tends to support euro appreciation. However, this time the euro experienced an unexpected "flash crash." The root cause is not the interest rate difference itself but the agreement reached on U.S.-EU tariffs. The market widely views this as a major concession from Europe, and the tariff shock is putting substantial pressure on the Euro

Although there have been changes in Japan’s political landscape, the announcement by the ruling party leader Shigeru Ishiba to remain in office has boosted confidence in Japanese stocks. Following a significant rise last week, the Nikkei is now just one step away from its historical peak. As an important gauge of market sentiment, the increase in the Nikkei and the potential for new highs suggest that risk appetite may continue. However, it is important to note that the yen has remained relatively stable. Even as the US dollar retraces, the USD/JPY pair has only seen a modest increase. Until the movements of these inherently counterbalancing assets align, the effectiveness of this rally remains uncertain.Regarding the Nikkei itself, large-scale breakthroughs typically undergo multiple rete

Previews on BOJ MeetingAfter the July 24 rate hike, the yen appreciated to around 140, when a large number of yen hedging trades were closed out, and the entire Japanese stock $iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF(JPXN)$ and U.S. stock $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ marketshave all seen a significant wave of pullbacks.Just past the December meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% at its December meeting (with one dissenting vote), with hawkish member Naoki Tamura stating that upside risks to inflation were increasing and proposing a rate hike to 0.50%.In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda's statement was borderline dovish, which also caused the yen exchange rate to retreat