It’s 2026, so it’s time to have some fun with expectations for the year.Most predictions I’ve seen a pretty boring, like “stocks will go up ~9%” or “ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ will outperform.”I think this is going to be a crazier year than most in the market think. We’re in the calm before the storm.Expect the unexpected!#1: OpenAI Will “Collapse”This may sound provocative at first, but I don’t think it’s all that far-fetched.The Information reported in September that OpenAI expects to burn $131 billion through 2029 and then magically become profitable.There’s just one problem with that plan…Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ !Google has clearly gained momentum

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs

The entire "AI Trade" is a confidence game. $Oracle(ORCL)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ If the market has confidence that spending will increase and stocks will go up, companies will be able to raise money to spend on capex and stocks will go up.But if the market loses confidence and stocks drop (like they have) confidence is broken and it can be a downward spiral because NONE of these neoclouds has a sustainable business model today. (Hyperscalers are a different story) For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading

Stocks with a P/E multiple under 15x and a 3 year revenue CAGR of 5% or more. $Uber(UBER)$ $Progressive(PGR)$ $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ $Elevance Health(ELV)$ $THE CIGNA GROUP(CI)$ $Travelers(TRV)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $Ford(F)$ $Allstate(ALL)$ $ONEOK Inc(OKE)$ $Ameriprise(AMP)$ $Vici Properties(VICI)$

Where do you look for investment ideas?Or better yet, where do you NOT look for investment ideas?This is something I think a lot about and have developed some loose frameworks over the years.There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to investing, and I’ve broken every rule I talk about below, but I think it’s important to understand your goals as an investor and how you’re going to find the stocks that allow you to meet those goals.If I were looking for a steady 8% rate of return, industrials and energy may be a pond to fish in.But I’m looking for 10x stocks over the next 10 years.I want companies (and founders) that take big swings and get big outcomes.Those opportunities aren’t found just anywhere, and eliminating huge swaths of the market helps refine where I do look for ideas. Hop

Vertically integrating with <50,000 units of demand is the biggest mistake $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ can make.They're operating like $Apple(AAPL)$ in 2010 when the A4 chip launched. But Apple was selling 47 million iPhones/year by then. Rivian's autonomy day would have been impressive in 2022. Today, it's the wrong business model (vertically integrated) in a competitive market with modular suppliers offering a scalable solution to competitors with manufacturing scale.Rivian is STILL only making ~50k vehicles per year. It won't get over 215k in production for AT LEAST another three years.By then, millions of vehicles will have L4 autonomy. It's too late! Business. Models. Matter.Hasn't

The big news late last week was $Netflix(NFLX)$ agreeing to buy $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ studios and streaming assets. The cable networks will go into their own publicly traded zombie companies, but the good assets are going to Netflix — assuming regulatory approval.It’s pretty clear why Netflix wants these assets, and I don’t think it’s for the reason most pundits think. If you look at the Smiling Curve and where companies want to be, Netflix has already won in the top right.What it’s worried about is this middle section. Netflix is worried that Paramount, WBD, and Peacock will merge, creating another competitor that’s worth caring about.As it stands right now, $

One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. The biggest winner in streaming today is probably ESPN/Disney.There was a real threat that Paramount Skydance would be a big player in sports after the $7.7 billion UF

One of the reasons I default to “never” selling stocks is that we never know when a stock will move higher or what will drive the move.I try to find companies that can compound revenue and earnings over a long period of time because that long-term view is our advantage over the market. But that doesn’t mean the ride will be a straight line higher.Take $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as an example. The stock has been an incredible performer over the past two decades.But to realize those gains, you would have had to ride out drops of over 80% multiple times.How does selling play a role, even when we own phenomenal long-term stocks?Something Has ChangedIf the thesis on a stock I own has changed, it might be time to sell.I did this with previous Asymmetric Investing s

While hedge funds may blow up on a regular basis, they have an incentive to do so.Hedge fund managers make money based on the returns they generate for their investors. And they attract money based on outsized returns that attract attention. Just beating the market by a narrow margin each year isn’t enough.Put it this way, it’s in a hedge fund’s interest to bet on “Red” at the roulette table and have a 49% chance of doubling their money and a 51% chance of going bust. The upside of having a 100% return year is potentially 10x-ing the size of your fund. Go bust, and they can start over again.Our personal portfolios don’t work that way.But avoiding going bust is relatively straightforward.Avoid LeverageNearly every investing horror story starts with leverage.Margin is what wipes out investor

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . 5 Takeaways1. Faster than going to a doctor.2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost.4. Opens new verticals for HIMS.5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as

Here's what I mean by "needs more scrutiny". $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's inventory falls when demand starts picking up in a cycle. In 2023, ChatGPT is exploding and GPU demand is off the charts, so inventory days (green below) drops. NVIDIA's inventory typically builds as the rate of growth slows. But there's a lag from the build of inventory to the drop-off in growth to historically eventually negative revenue growth.The reason this is important is the orange line, which is gross margins (pricing power). NVIDIA's high profits are driven by high margins. If inventory rises and pricing power falls, margins fall as well.Maybe the cycle continues, maybe it doesn't. But it's something you should consider given the regular drawdowns of 50%+ that NVIDIA goes thr

I was one of the first people to sign up for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ lab testing when it was announced last week.I quickly scheduled a time to get my labs done and broke the bank with the $499 advanced plan. It’s research, after all.Signup and Pre-LabsAs you would expect, signing up for Labs is a straightforward process. Hims & Hers is a typical modern tech company, and with a few clicks, I had paid for and scheduled my labs. I already had an account, so I had a bit of a head start; however, I think the setup process for an account took less than five minutes.Needless to say, this was easier than going to a doctor’s office.The app’s homepage then displayed all the necessary information about my appointment (I cropped some of the pe

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of

1. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Rising financing costs creates a death spiral for companies. To grow, they need more debt.As more debt is added debt costs go up making it harder to grow profitably. Problem is, if they stop the growth cycle the stock drops. If they keep going, it could get worse... 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ These were always unsustainable "businesses" doomed to burn speculators. 3. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS lab testing complete. My experience: ⏰ 15 minutes from appt time to walking out the door🧪 9 vials of blood🎙️ Ample notifications about time and location from the

The stock market is still trading near all-time highs, and for stock investors, there appears to be little concern about potential risks from the economy, AI, or other factors at present. Earnings are strong and interest rates are coming down, so 🚀!But the stock market doesn’t run the world.The bond market does.The bond market is ten times the size of the equity market, and bond investors are more concerned about risk than opportunity. They aren’t worried about the asymmetric upside we have with stocks because…there isn’t that much upside in bonds. The upside is you get paid back with interest.That’s it!So, when bond investors start demanding more for taking even the smallest risks, we need to pay attention. And yields are up in places you wouldn’t think they could be. I’ll get to more in