The internet of the past 20 years and the multi-trillion dollar tech companies we see today are built on two assumed truths.The addressable markets are nearly infinite in sizeMarginal costs round to zeroThis is why $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Facebook was trading for 100x earnings in 2014 and 2015. Investors knew it could eventually scale profits to the $55.5 billion in net income we see today.ImageIt’s why $Uber(UBER)$ could raise tens of billions of dollars chasing ride-sharing.It’s whywinner-take-all markets are valuable. It’s why theSmiling Curve works.Margins are 80% to 90% for most of these companies. The marginal cost isn’t important. What’s important is growing. Fast.ImageAI may not look like thi

They say it takes 10 years to master a craft.I'm 29 years into my investing journey and I'm no master. But I have learned this:1. Embrace uncertainty2. Accept diversification is good for you3. The less you look at your portfolio the betterWhat did I miss?The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.The best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.Learn, implement, repeat.

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Pull out Google Cloud and Waymo and you still have an amazing business with Alphabet's core. 2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ When a tech company gets religion about cash flow the turnaround can happen fast. 3. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ At the current rate of capex growth, Microsoft will be FCF NEGATIVE in ~2026. This is a company with falling ROIC trading for 12.5x sales. Makes you think... 4. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ A reminder that Coinbase is much more than an exchange business. And with the growth of USDC the stablecoin business is gett

One of the Asymmetric Universe stocks that I fundamentally disagree with most of the market’s commentary is $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . Even today, a Wall Street analyst downgraded the stock to a sell with a $25 price target because of changing expectations for GLP-1s. 🤷 He expects GLP-1s to be only $135 million in revenue in 2025 from previous expectations of $400 million. Reminder, this is a business that didn’t exist 8 months ago!The company swings wildly day-to-day on GLP-1 news but GLP-1s account for very little of the company’s revenue or subscriptions. A long-term view of the company — which is what I do on Asymmetric Investing — shows a very different story than the GLP-1 focus and I think presents an opportunity for investo

This week, Sam Altman gave away the economics of the AI world. And they may not be all that attractive.The fact that OpenAI is losing money isn’t surprising. WHY OpenAI is losing money on a $200/month subscription is what’s new to Silicon Valley.AI Scaling 1.0 - Pre-TrainingTo explain how the economics of AI have been upended in the last few months, we need to go through some history.Most of the scaling that took place through the end of 2023 was related to pre-training.Simply, developers were able to use more data and more compute to make AI models smarter. This is often called the foundation model and it’s the core of the models we see today.This type of scaling is also why you heard talk about a model costing $1 billion and $100 billion models being just a few years away.But the idea of

Businesses make rational decisions. 1. Is the system in licensing safe? 2. Is the software I’m licensing customizable? Do I get data? Will I know failure modes? Can I fix problems quickly? 3. Is the partner in working with a good partner? $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fails on all 3.Just to be clear, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ making it easier to create autonomous vehicles and robots isn't bullish for TSLA. It's the opposite.When these technologies reach a point of "good enough" there's no differentiation.Tesla becomes...an auto company. And it's losing market share.

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla delivered 1,789,226 vehicles in 2024, down from 1,808,581 in 2023.Meanwhile, $General Motors(GM)$ and $Ford(F)$ are increasing deliveries.Tesla's margins and FCF are likely to evaporate in 2025 as the pandemic profits fade into the rear view.Probably bullish because nothing matters.Auto Delivery Growth in 2024 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Negative 1% $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ : Up 3% $General Motors(GM)$ : Up 4%GM EVs: Up 50%The facts seem to tell a different story than stock prices.2.

How do you find great investment ideas? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom. 📈 My dream investing world: 1️⃣ Inconsistent dividends are OK!💰 2️⃣ Financial statements should read right

In 6 days, the AI narrative will change from:2025 capex is up HUGE!toWhat is 2026 capex?The answer to that question and where the spending will happen (ie. where is there ROI?) will determine AI stock performance in 2025. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ The returns to being the market leader in AI seem lower than any technology in history. A competitor 6 months behind could see- Costs 90%+ lower- Speed 10x faster If the time to deploy is long (autonomous driving, business model disruption, research), I like the lagga

The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.Learn, implement, repeat.And the best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad."Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside is superior long-term returns." - Morgan Housel

The stock market dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was lowering short-term interest rates. The big surprise is the Fed expects inflation and unemployment to both rise in 2025.What happened to the booming economy we were promised?The truth is, there are a lot of unknowns and a lot of factors outside of the Fed’s control. Tariffs could cause more inflation. AI could cause more efficiency…and layoffs. Fewer regulations could spur economic activity…and jobs. Credit card debt is rising. And on, and on.No one knows exactly what will happen. And that uncertainty (periodically) causes a panic in the market. This panic appears to have only lasted a few hours, but the next one could last for months.In many ways, the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place trying to figure o

1. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ Selling shovels during the autonomous vehicle gold rush.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet's investments are up more than 10x in the past decade.Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ As long as the story is about the future, Tesla never needs to deliver in the present. This is Elon's brilliance. He keeps moving the goalpost and never has to deliver solar+storage+EV (2016), 50% EV growth (2020), FSD (2016-present), and on and on.4. $Apple(AAPL)$ Who is buying a no-growth company at an earnings yield half of treasuries?Image

Today’s deep dive is on $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ and $Uber(UBER)$ . This is an unusual spotlight because it highlights two companies, but given the similarities in their business models, I think it’s appropriate to cover them in a basket. I’ll explain below why I think owning both is the proper strategy, rather than betting on one over the other.Started in 2009, Uber offers ride-sharing, food delivery, and freight services to businesses and consumers around the world.Started in 2007 and rebranded as Lyft in 2013, Lyft offers ride-sharing and some food delivery in the United States and Canada.Why Stock Lyft and Uber? In ~100 WordsRide-sharing is a “winner-take-most” market that lives by the laws of the smiling c

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I spend a lot of time trying to learn about the companies disrupting Google.Every discussion seems to come back to 2 things:1. Google has the most/best consumer touch points.2. Google has the best infrastructure.I like it at 20x forward earnings. KISSImage2. $Apple(AAPL)$ This business trades for 40x earnings...Image3. $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ The valuation is making my head spin, but how do you sell this business?Image4. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ SoundHound has a $5.5 billion valuation, is losing money like c