delusion梦碎
delusion梦碎
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avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-04

Russian oil production cuts, how the West responds to rising oil prices

Last Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that he would voluntarily cut output by 500,000 barrels per day in March. As soon as the news came out, oil prices rose by more than 2 dollars. In his speech, Novak stated that he would not sell oil to countries that directly or indirectly implement the principle of 'price ceiling', and set a 'price ceiling' on the sales of Russian oil and petroleum products. The mechanism is to intervene in market relations and is a continuation of the collective destructive energy policies of Western countries. Production cuts will help restore market relations. At the same time, U.S. consumer prices rose in December, instead of falling as previously estimated, and the data for the previous two months were also revised upwards, which increased th
Russian oil production cuts, how the West responds to rising oil prices
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-03-22

AMAN : BEST STOCK TO BUY

If this report came out a month ago this would have been down 10-15 per share easy. After 14 months of bear market pressure from Nov 2021 it looks like people are starting to not care about the recession talk and all the negatives. Buying these type of stocks in Big Tech will pay out huge for the next 20 years and it's why people invest.Amazon has a wide moat of very good and great products and is number one in market share in cloud and e-commerce with advertising making great strides. Amazon has gone through down cycles before and has came out a stronger and better company and will again. Holding my shares forever it will make me richer for it. Even if it takes two, three years or longer .$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
AMAN : BEST STOCK TO BUY
$JD.com(JD)$ There is no problem. The low on April 16 was exactly on the 50 Fibonacci line from the low on January 22 to the high on March 13 (black table). If we had reached the 61 Fibonacci (golden zone), I would have been worried about a trend reversal, but we bounced upwards off the support line. Accordingly, we were in a bull flag, from which we broke out to the upside. Measured from the low (22. January) to last high (March 13) to the low (April 16), we are currently just below the 38 Fibonacci extension (blue table 27.61). We may test the upper limit of the bull flag once again in order to close the small gap, but after that we should continue higher.
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-11

Amazon: Blinded By Optimism

Great analysis making many great points with which i agree. the bulk of amzn's sales volume comes fr its high volume/low margin online retail biz that's marginally break even with its huge overhead employing over 1 million (which they overdid), building and maintaining warehouses (which they overdid) and requiring an army of trucks, vans and planes that have to be acquired, insured, maintained and fueled. as you aptly say, amzn serves customers and amzn execs well but is actually a lousy biz for shareholders for 1 very obvious reason: it lacks pricing power. price increases would drive sales away...the opposite of a great biz like apple's which has unmatched pricing power because of its fiercely loyal 1.2B worldwide users w/a satisfaction rating of 99%...apple's p/e is half amzn's. apple d
Amazon: Blinded By Optimism
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-06

Not betting against Microsoft.

MSFT business does not depend solely on Bing and search. Alphabet depends primarily on search. If Bing really takes off due to AI, Alphabet is in big trouble. I hear that Alphabet is really cutting expenses hard so they are likely losing ad growth. MSFT has a lot of reoccurring revenues though a subscription based model so my opinion is that MSFT is much safer.MSFT is a never sell in my book. As for buying more, that's really a personal decision. How many shares do you have,how long are you holding for,do you have a lot on cash available, and on and on. MSFT is my largest holding, so I'm a bit biased. Good luck,whatever you decide.
Not betting against Microsoft.
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-04

UBS Swallows Credit Suisse: More Holes Than Cheese

The deal of the century for UBS could have been the deal of the century for the Swiss government.We are shocked, and remain shocked to the bone, that CS can disappear over ONE weekend like a bloody bank in a banana republic.Conspiracies in Switzerland must be fired up like "who killed Kennedy"!I give 10% of a chance that deal of the century may not age well as is. My reasoning is that Gordan Gekko et al must know that UBS is not going to let go of the deal of the century, and hence UBS will come up with some green mails, warrants, etc., to compensate for the "injustice" done, and, for the Gekkos to go away before the election this year.Why not, after all, the Swiss government is paying for it ! $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$
UBS Swallows Credit Suisse: More Holes Than Cheese
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-06-02

Coinbase: All's Not Well(s)

As a longtime fan and holder of Bitcoin, it pains me to describe how awful and unreliable Coinbase is as a platform to buy and sell crypto. I'm holding around $2,000 in assets there. For the past two weeks, I have been unable to sell and cash out of any of my holdings. The assets are just stuck there with no explanation from Coinbase. Only that "there's a glitch" they're working to fix asap. Can you imagine a bank telling you for two weeks your funds are frozen due to an unspecified technical glitch? Meanwhile, depositing new funds on Coinbase is easy as pie. But just try getting it out! I'm not a short-seller or basher. In fact, I'd hate to see the black eye for crypto another FTX-type meltdown would generate. But this is ridiculous behavior for any legitimate financial firm. I wish a fin
Coinbase: All's Not Well(s)
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-03

Grab Q4 Results: Remains Highly Speculative

Interesting article, I wish there was some coverage of their Grab Eats vs e-hailing revenue, profitability and growth prospects for the 2 segments. Also,a) since stock-based compensation has been a 'killer' expense for most of the companies in the high growth phase, some indication of its trajectory going forward would have been helpful; andb) an analysis of their revenue trends by major countries, growth in their respective areas, and potential going forward would have been useful, along with some pointers on competition (or lack thereof) in each of them. $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
Grab Q4 Results: Remains Highly Speculative
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-03-10
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ We’re nearing the end of this Bear market and inflation is finally subsiding. There is over $5 TRILLION in cash sitting on the sidelines in money market funds and consumers have another $1.4 TRILLION in liquidity to keep the economy moving along. When the Bull re-emerges the move back up will be violent and will continue for years! Be patient because history tells us longs will win again.
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-06-06
It still maintains itself as the worst EV stock ever. It will stay at this level and we just going to brace for a likely poor earning report this coming Friday, a bad day for stock market, that it may plunge to $6 or worse $5. We should participate in their conference call after earning report and throw our questions and concerns to the good CEO. Oh well , it is what it is. I’m long but discouraged. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-27
Not lost until sold and I am holding for the inevitable and inexplicable spike that happens when the shorts hit the road en masse by Friday. $U Power(UCAR)$Excited Golden Retriever GIF by MOODMAN
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-09-07

GME: The Value of the Investment Goes to Zero

With time, price movement will reveal itself.Currently GME has been in a downtrend since 2021. And for one full year the 50 ma has been acting as resistance and pushing price down.On another observation, if this downward channel, after a parabolic rise of 8,200% is a bull flag, then we need to carefully monitor which way price beaks out of this channel.Will it break below the channel and invalidate the bull flag. A bag holder is an informal term used to describe an gme investor who holds a position in a security that decreases in value until it descends into worthlessness. In most cases, the bag holder stubbornly retains their holding for an extended period, during which time the value of the investment goes to zero. $GameStop(GME)$
GME: The Value of the Investment Goes to Zero
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-03-21
Probably wrong but you may be witnessing a battle today with the short interests pitted against the longs (underlying derivatives drive most of the short-term volatility.) It appears as though the short interests are doubling-down with continued short selling across the spectrum (PLTR not unique) in an attempt to suppress the market. Like I said, probably wrong but I would not be surprised in the least to see a rebound before the day is over with all of the major indices closing green.$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-08-07
SQ is sort of too expensive for me. Feels like everyone who owns this stock is a trader. I have looked at SQ many times and their lack of profit, the use of adjusted metrics and the lousy capital allocation leading to dilution keeps me away.They do have a great product vision, but from a shareholder perspective, I don’t think they are out to create value.The market just experienced a growth spurt and there are many articles that starts going bullish on the stock market. Word of caution, consider risk management and trade within your means. I foresee a lot of volatility and those without conviction might not last long enough to see the fruits. $Block(SQ)$ SQ price chart (weekly)
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-04-07

Disney: It's Bob Iger Vs. Hollywood

The Business cycle excuse is consistent with 100% of the financial press. No one would ever challenge the blessid Disney.Universal has beat Disney in children's movies for the past 5 years. There are real problems with Disney that continue to be unspoken. While Disney lead and turned hard left, Universal continued to move forward to overtake Disney for a half decade now. I wonder where the layoff announcements are at Universal. Mario is coming out next weekend and will be another blockbuster for Universal. Disney has left a void which feeds their entire business and absolutely that is why "The Mermaid" is another bad bet for Disney. $Walt Disney(DIS)$
Disney: It's Bob Iger Vs. Hollywood
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-09-15

Are there any stocks you bought since Jan 2021 that you are currently bag holding down 30% or more?

My worst one's are COIN,PTRA, SNAP and RUN. COIN was trading at decent multiple but EPS went to $0 in a blink. i am surprised, FEDs are not investigating COIN for showing overinflated EPS during the listing. PTRA was my quest to buy hidden gem in EV space. Meantime TSLA with inflated valuations returned another 100%. I bailed out both with 50% lost and done some tax harvesting.i actually bought PINS and RUN when prices are decent but didn't take the profit. When PINS dropping down to below my cost, i traded into SNAP which went down by another 75%. PINS actually recovered.Got out of BBBY, XPEV and SPCE at the right time. That gave me some comfort.What stocks do you have in the same situation and what is your plan? Will you keep holding or will you cut losses at the first sign of a rally? <
Are there any stocks you bought since Jan 2021 that you are currently bag holding down 30% or more?
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-06-30

Joby stock takes off on landing FAA certificate for its first production prototype

The Joby will certainly fly, but it has an incredible number of moving parts to maintain.Six electric motors, with shafts, controllable-pitch props, each one likely with their own governor, related accessories, and a moving wing (s) where these motors are mounted that itself moves, and how it does that, whether electronically or hydraulically I’m not sure. Everything that moves on an aircraft needs lubricated, inspected, and subject to wear and tear and failure over time.Anyone in aviation knows the huge costs to maintain a helicopter related to a fixed-wing aircraft. It doesn’t matter that the Joby is electric or not, all of those parts still have to be maintained and instead of having one rotor you have six, so how in the world is this going to be anything but super expensive to maintain
Joby stock takes off on landing FAA certificate for its first production prototype
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-06-14

QuantumScape: Path To Commercialization Is Clearer Now, But It Is Better To Wait

It is silly to trash QS while rooting for SLDP. If one company becomes successful, it will push the other company's stock higher, not the other way around. It is not like there is very limited market share for solid-state batteries. It is in quite contrary that neither company will have enough production even if it is successful. It is like MSFT and AAPL—when one rises, the other one rises, and one falls, the other one falls. So, if you are rooting for SLDP, you should root for QS as well, as the failure of QS will greatly hurt SLDP. $Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ $Solid Power, Inc(SLDP)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$
QuantumScape: Path To Commercialization Is Clearer Now, But It Is Better To Wait
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-06-06
I see a Huge buy ( ~1.2 million) just before the market open. After the market open, shorts trying to sell small blocks to keep the price down. $U Power(UCAR)$
avatardelusion梦碎
2023-03-24

UBS Acquisition Of Credit Suisse: Deal Of The Century

We are shocked, and remain shocked to the bone, that CS can disappear over ONE weekend like a bloody bank in a banana republic.Conspiracies in Switzerland must be fired up like "who killed Kennedy"!I give 10% of a chance that deal of the century may not age well as is. My reasoning is that Gordan Gekko et al must know that UBS is not going to let go of the deal of the century, and hence UBS will come up with some green mails, warrants, etc., to compensate for the "injustice" done, and, for the Gekkos to go away before the election this year.Why not, afterall, the Swiss government is paying for it !$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$
UBS Acquisition Of Credit Suisse: Deal Of The Century

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