Did The Fed's Monetary Policy Experiment Just Fail?

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Did The Fed's Monetary Policy Experiment Just Fail?

zerohedge2021-08-20

Did the Fed’s “monetary policy experiment” fail? The recent dislocation between consumer confidence and the financial markets may indicate just that. “U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early...

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TaiWoeiHaur
·2021-08-23
Good
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1
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boonluan
·2021-08-23
Hi
Reply
3
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All in Tesla
·2021-08-23
Every decision FED make affect the world markets ?
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6
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- Merlink:
  and most of the time their decision are not well received.
  2021-08-23
  Reply
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- Sataneson:
  True
  2021-08-23
  Reply
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A68
·2021-08-22
good
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2
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- hpt:
  Ok
  2021-08-23
  Reply
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TheHaq
·2021-08-22
Interesting article from real investment
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3
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Jack in the Stock
·2021-08-22
Thanks for the article. Why is it an experiment?
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3
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Chrystle
·2021-08-22
Wise words
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- CeciLi:
  Yah
  2021-08-22
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KDaDa
·2021-08-22
If you always have to dig a hole to patch another hole, it is a matter of time that you will run of space. If Fed does not fix the wrong things and becomes politically involved to make changes, its deficit problem will never get resolved.
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Bodoh
·2021-08-22
This is an experiment?!?
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3
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MN27
·2021-08-22
Like ans share pls
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- CWL711:
  Ok
  2021-08-22
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- cutemiao:
  ok
  2021-08-22
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Alex1709
·2021-08-22
Stock market got ahead too far from the real economy
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10
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SSVC
·2021-08-22
Hmm.. Appreciate your response and comments Thanks
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- 50160107Acct:
  Kk
  2021-08-23
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- buckethead:
  ok done
  2021-08-22
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ToongMH
·2021-08-22
Good to read
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4
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我i168
·2021-08-22
Fed will follow its playbook. Market will still look like surprised.Market will rout, or else Wall Street would have nothing to do.[Smile] [Cool]
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Crafty88
·2021-08-21
I guess it has more to do with the timing of tapering comes at a time of covid resurgence and anti-globalisation.
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- 我i168:
  Can be the butterfly![Happy]
  2021-08-22
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Dcagency
·2021-08-21
So far this year is ok
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5
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STKG
·2021-08-21
Yet to know.
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- BokWoon:
  Agree
  2021-08-21
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jamjam
·2021-08-21
Like and comment pls
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- spcenbeyond:
  ok
  2021-08-22
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- Tan123:
  pls
  2021-08-22
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- Ryacleigh:
  ????
  2021-08-21
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JoelLee
·2021-08-21
Reply and like pls thx
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- JoelLee:
  Reply and like pls thx
  2021-08-21
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hpt
·2021-08-21
Like
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- jamjam:
  ok
  2021-08-21
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The recent dislocation between consumer confidence and the financial markets may indicate just that.\n\n“U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-feds-monetary-policy-experiment-just-fail\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-feds-monetary-policy-experiment-just-fail","article_id":"1102227761","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102227761","pubTimestamp":1629471126,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Did the Fed’s “monetary policy experiment” fail? The recent dislocation between consumer confidence ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"美联储的货币政策试验刚刚失败了吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"Did the Fed’s “monetary policy experiment” fail? The recent dislocation between consumer confidence and the financial markets may indicate just that.\n\n“U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early August to its lowest level in a decade, in a worrying sign for the economy as Americans gave faltering outlooks on everything from personal finances to inflation and employment,” – Reuters\n\nHowever, to understand why I am asking the question, we have to revisit whatBen Bernanke said in 2010 to support the idea of a second round of “Quantitative Easing.”\n\n“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose, and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action.\n Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. \nAnd higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.”\n\nWhat he is referring to is known as “Animal Spirits.”\nAnimal spirits came from the Latin term “spiritus animals,” which means the “breath that awakens the human mind.”Its modern usage came about in John Maynard Keynes’ 1936 publication, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.”Ultimately, “animal spirits was adopted by Wall Street to describe the psychological factors driving investor actions.\nSpecifically, Ben Bernanke realized that investors would respond to that stimulus and increase asset prices by providing accommodation.\nIn other words, as long as individuals “believe” the Fed is lifting asset prices higher, they take action buying stocks and driving asset prices higher. Thus, investor actions deliver the desired outcome.\nIt Was All Going According To Plan\nSince the Fed began its monetary interventions, the correlation between the asset prices and confidence remains high.\nAs noted, the entire premise of monetary policy was to spur consumer spending. Everything seemed to be according to plan.\n\nThe problem was that while the Fed lifted asset prices, the economy didn’t strengthen as expected. As discussed recently:\n\n“However, while the Federal Reserve got the desired outcome of increasing asset prices, “quantitative easing” failed to “trickle down.” \nDespite the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the surge in asset prices, there was relatively little translation into wages, full-time employment, or corporate profits after tax which ultimately triggered very little economic growth.\n“\n\n“Since 2007, the stock market returned nearly 200%, which is more than twice the growth in GDP and nearly 4-times the growth in corporate revenue.(I use SALES growth as it happens at the top line of income statements and is not subject to as much manipulation.)”\nAgain, it was all going according to plan, sort of.\nUntil now.\nDid The Monetary Policy Experiment Just Fail?\n\n“Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy,”\n Richard Curtin, chief economist for the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, said in a release. \nTwo of those larger month-over-month movers were April 2020 amid the pandemic and October 2008, during the financial crisis.”\n – CNBC\n\nThe decline was extremely sharp.\n\n“Not only was the release dramatically worse than the last update, but it was a huge miss relative to expectations. Today’s release came in 11 points below expectations. The only other month going back to 1999 that even comes close was a 9.9 point miss in February 2004.” – \n Bespoke Investment Group\n\n\nThe mainstream analysis missed that the correlation between confidence and markets broke down in 2019. Notably, while the Fed is engaged in monetizing $120 billion in debt monthly, higher asset prices isn’t inflating confidence.\n\nThat breakdown of consumer confidence will likely show up in consumption in the coming quarter. Such is mainly due to stimulus and other financial supports fading.\n\nA decent warning sign such may be the case was the weak retail sales report this past week. The large gap between retail sales and employment will likely get filled sooner than expected and not necessarily by higher employment.\nIf the most giant “monetary policy experiment” just failed, the Fed has an enormous problem.\nThe Problem For The Fed\nOver the next couple of weeks, all eyes are on the Fed. Lately, there has been an abundance of communication from Fed members discussing the need to “taper” its monetary interventions.\nAs Morgan Stanley recently noted:\n\n“If the July FOMC minutes suggest that there was strong consensus and Chair Powell’s indication on tapering at Jackson Hole is therefore much firmer, we could see that as consistent with the FOMC gearing up to move on tapering sooner.”\n\nSuch is something the markets are probably not ready for.\nSo far, market participants have ignored weakening economic data, the collapse of Afghanistan, and rising risks of infections across the U.S. As long as the Fed is engaged in providing liquidity, the “risk of missing out” outweighs being more conservative with allocations.\nHowever, the Fed remains trapped between two very tough policy choices.\nThe system has elevated inflation levels, as indicated by the spread between the PPI and CPI inflation measures.Currently, with PPI at the highest spread to CPI in history, it suggests producers can’t pass on costs to customers. Such equates to weaker profit margins and earnings in the future.However, if they elect to pass those costs onto consumers, such will raise living costs well above wages.\nWith unemployment levels dropping, and inflation rising, the Fed should be tapering monetary policy.\nHowever, the reduction in liquidity will trigger a decline in asset prices, hinder consumer confidence, and contract economic growth further.\nIt’s a tough choice.\nConclusion\nWe agree with Morgan Stanley’s assessment on the likely path of “taper” when it comes.\n\n“\nThe path of least resistance is to follow the path most traveled, that is, the playbook established in the last cycle when the Fed began to reduce its purchases of longer-term assets following the 2013 taper tantrum.\n That playbook included a long lead-time to signal the start, a promise that tapering would be gradual and flexible,\n and assurances to the market that tapering would have nothing to do with the timing of first rate hike.\n Indeed, the Fed did not first raise rates until six months following the end of tapering.”\n\nWhile such is undoubtedly the path of least resistance, it is unlikely the market will like it much. As discussed in “3-Signs Of The Next Bear Market:”\n\n“Therefore, it should also not be surprising that when the Fed starts ‘tapering’ their bond purchases, the market tends to witness increased volatility. The grey shaded bars in the chart below show when the balance sheet is either flat or contracting.”\n\nNotably, the time from the initial tapering of assets and a market correction is almost immediate.\nIf “monetary policy” has lost effectiveness in supporting consumer confidence and “animal spirits,” the significant risk to investors could be a market decline the Fed cannot halt.\nCurrently, investors are highly confident the Fed can support markets against any risk.\nBut what if they can’t?","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":835977877,"gmtCreate":1629685966299,"gmtModify":1676530098707,"author":{"id":"3563667765668803","authorId":"3563667765668803","authorIdStr":"3563667765668803","name":"TaiWoeiHaur","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4573ecee7a4a891ace3e5566a59069d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563667765668803"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835977877","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":835078481,"gmtCreate":1629682547443,"gmtModify":1676530096250,"author":{"id":"4090973469095140","authorId":"4090973469095140","authorIdStr":"4090973469095140","name":"boonluan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563e039c40224732cb1f166423a402d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090973469095140"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835078481","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832742482,"gmtCreate":1629679531546,"gmtModify":1676530093485,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"Every decision FED make affect the world markets ?","listText":"Every decision FED make affect the world markets ?","text":"Every decision FED make affect the world markets ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832742482","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5617740,"gmtCreate":1629691300957,"gmtModify":1663232776768,"authorId":3582196336336885,"author":{"id":3582196336336885,"authorId":3582196336336885,"name":"Merlink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/741db9e3d01255d709f4d301a1acc34f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832742482,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"and most of the time their decision are not well received.","text":"and most of the time their decision are not well received.","html":"and most of the time their decision are not well received."},{"id":5614325,"gmtCreate":1629680249466,"gmtModify":1663232764835,"authorId":3581730902365980,"author":{"id":3581730902365980,"authorId":3581730902365980,"name":"Sataneson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eca31f563085f3549f3adfa11debfd90","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832742482,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>True</u>","text":"<u>True</u>","html":"<u>True</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832264842,"gmtCreate":1629641313786,"gmtModify":1676530084303,"author":{"id":"3576813955258325","authorId":"3576813955258325","authorIdStr":"3576813955258325","name":"A68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d209afa981c29a4dc34bd7c1c986fb4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576813955258325"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832264842","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5612662,"gmtCreate":1629676856986,"gmtModify":1663232756850,"authorId":3579759306103275,"author":{"id":3579759306103275,"authorId":3579759306103275,"name":"hpt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986ef7c951112f7be64cfd5d6c1672c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832264842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832852651,"gmtCreate":1629610191073,"gmtModify":1676530079577,"author":{"id":"3572622102225035","authorId":"3572622102225035","authorIdStr":"3572622102225035","name":"TheHaq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8f425ae08e71ad8583df23f2813d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572622102225035"},"htmlText":"Interesting article from real investment&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting article from real investment&nbsp;","text":"Interesting article from real investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832852651","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832868220,"gmtCreate":1629607404460,"gmtModify":1676530079031,"author":{"id":"3561548364525556","authorId":"3561548364525556","authorIdStr":"3561548364525556","name":"Jack in the Stock","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef3c19f727783ca8030d5aab5b19df10","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561548364525556"},"htmlText":"Thanks for the article.&nbsp;Why is it an experiment?&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the article.&nbsp;Why is it an experiment?&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the article. Why is it an experiment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832868220","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832127139,"gmtCreate":1629599945321,"gmtModify":1676530076728,"author":{"id":"3581937435371995","authorId":"3581937435371995","authorIdStr":"3581937435371995","name":"Chrystle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80b86f795c68307e6ba22af2f6ae6a67","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581937435371995"},"htmlText":"Wise words&nbsp;","listText":"Wise words&nbsp;","text":"Wise words","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832127139","repostId":1102227761,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5605176,"gmtCreate":1629601251507,"gmtModify":1663232723043,"authorId":3580709888891343,"author":{"id":3580709888891343,"authorId":3580709888891343,"name":"CeciLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c84d7339be75b2d5f77e2eee702149e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832127139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yah","text":"Yah","html":"Yah"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":832182026,"gmtCreate":1629598477765,"gmtModify":1676530076084,"author":{"id":"3586642856771590","authorId":"3586642856771590","authorIdStr":"3586642856771590","name":"KDaDa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf594380f656556b95e862fd6513d46","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586642856771590"},"htmlText":"If you always have to dig a hole to patch another hole, it is a matter of time that you will run of space. If Fed does not fix the wrong things and becomes politically involved to make changes, its deficit problem will never get resolved.","listText":"If you always have to dig a hole to patch another hole, it is a matter of time that you will run of space. If Fed does not fix the wrong things and becomes politically involved to make changes, its deficit problem will never get resolved.","text":"If you always have to dig a hole to patch another hole, it is a matter of time that you will run of space. 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