女股神 Cathie Wood ：比特币涨了一倍是高估了吗？

发蓝壳 2021-01-13

2021年1月9日，当前最火的女股神 ARK 基金的负责人 Cathie Wood 在其官方平台做了一期视频，讲解了她对于目前市场的看法。以下为原视频的内容摘要：我首先来复盘下去年底的观点，我当时认为民主党将横扫参众两院，这个预测没有错。因为我专注于更长远的税率，尤其是资本利得税利率和公司税率，我认为这会对市场不利。但是股票市场似乎并没有认为那是一个非常糟糕的事情。因为市场把精力更多的放在...

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Jamessee
·2021-01-14
所以是高估了？那值多少呢？一直還再上
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琳泽
·2021-01-14
Good
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Nisnivlek
·2021-01-14
Good analysis
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华尔街支狼
·2021-01-14
看了股圈很多評論以及外界對比特幣的看法，得出一個結論就是，比特幣會在懷疑中漲到一個大家無法想象的價格，直到大家搶着入場的時候還不會跌。畢竟2020年低點上來最高已經漲了11倍了。現在盤旋在35000美元附近。目測在2024年前大頂在99000美元，理論上再也買不到1萬美元一下的比特幣。本人是比特幣長期持有者，佈道者，踐行者。套用一句比特幣之父中本聰的話: 如果你不相信，我沒時間說服你。
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- hahahahahn:
  欧洲金融部门已经关注
  2021-01-14
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- 联合收割机2021:
  如果比特币涨2024年前涨到10万美元，说明它不错。现在的问题是，他要三个月上十万。这波牛市，没有让比特币投资者感到安全，而是感到最终结果不会好。
  2021-01-14
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oO悟空Oo
·2021-01-14
BTC 是標準的智商稅
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寵蟲
·2021-01-14
6
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ranhuan
·2021-01-13
黃金沒有替代品 btc 替代品太多
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星刚明天会更好
·2021-01-13
值得深思！
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和时间赛跑zilong
·2021-01-13
閱
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Loghost
·2021-01-13
這個有點惡劣啊女神說了很核心的話，2021年會迎來大回調，美股和BTC結果通篇看不見全是唱多斷章取義啊
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- Loghost:
  https://youtu.be/MzPzz24UN3c
  2021-01-13
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- 修炼吧:
  在哪里看到采访全文版本啊？
  2021-01-13
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- fafachen:
  采访名字叫什么啊
  2021-01-13
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我就是阿硕
·2021-01-13
說的好像玩比特幣的很多好像不交智商稅一樣，國內很多電子化比特幣交易根本沒有比特幣的交換，國外肯定也有都是智商稅，錢很多被坑了
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- 田园浪漫:
  小仓位参与就好了
  2021-01-13
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形反转并且会持续到今年。可能在这个过程中会因为新冠病毒的感染率和死亡率产生一些波动。人们经历了混乱的生活和恐惧，所以我觉得经济刺激是有必要的。\n我认为今年企业的盈利会有爆炸式的增长，这会是我职业生涯中遇到的最大的超预期的盈利增长。\n如果去年标普500的收益（earnings）平均是100美金，前一年是140美金，那么我们预计2021年会达到200美金。\n上一周10年期国债收益率突破了1%，这打破了人们认为不容易突破的长期的趋势。\n牛市正在向周期股扩大，我们很高兴看到这一现象，这是良性循环。\n下周二我们将更新更多的关于创新的观点，到时我们的分析师也会一起参与。\nM2 比上一年增长了26%，我们从前从来没有遇见过这样的数字，这带来了很多新的问题。\n如果人们担心大宗商品的价格上涨和美元的下跌，我们相信美联储将不得不重新评估现在的政策。我们不认为美联储将继续保持中立和宽松的货币政策。\n铜的价格已经比三月的低点高出了75%， 并且还在上涨。这是通货膨胀的前兆。\n如果美联储重新评估利率，我们觉得是个好消息。很多人很担心，因为没有人喜欢改变。但是就像我们在2017年美联储推高利率时的观点一样，这表明美联储感觉到足够放心让市场自己运作。\n财政政策方面我们确实希望再增加1万亿美元，但是一旦我们撑过了因为新冠病毒而遭受的经济破坏之后，我不认为还需要更多的经济刺激，这只会导致更高的税收和浪费。\n在参众两院民主党现在有点太强大了（PS：wood 此时表情有点无奈，显然她有点担心）但是我们不得不面对这个事实，我们必须保持警惕。\n我相信拜登在上台之后。至少最开始会以更柔和的姿态来联合各方一起做事。基础设施建设会是其中的一方面。\n我们非常专注于健康医疗方面的大量创新。川普任上的时候健康医疗就是高优先级的，拜登上台后还会继续保持。拜登政府想要更低的医疗价格，同时加速批准突破性疗法。\n现在即使共和党人也知道清洁能源和电动汽车的成本已经降低到了新的水平，已经不再是过去多年需要补贴的那样了。\n最具伤害的部分是增加税率。如果提高资本利得税和公司税，再加上一些监管，我们可能会看到富有创造力的人或者公司迁移到其他城市或国家。我们是全球范围投资的基金所以我们会跟着这些优秀的公司和人才投资。\n前不久我在接受彭博社采访的时候主持人问我，你为什么要谈论经济和政治？我想说的是我的背景是经济学和金融学，我需要有对于经济的大局观来指导我投资，就像之前我所说的，新冠病毒对经济是一次冲击而不是全面的经济衰退。\n今天的就业形式依然很疲软，一个月内失去了50万个工作岗位。但是如果你仔细看报告的话，你会发现制造业的就业时间是强于预期的，制造业的加班时间也增加了，可见制造业正在追赶住房和汽车市场的需求。\n就业报告中另一个有趣的数字是时薪新增长了0.8%，我印象中没有见过比这更高的数字，除了80年代初当时的通货膨胀达到两位数，每小时的时薪增长了5.1%。\n一季度我们经历了大规模刺激，我现在无法预测GDP能增长多少，但是现在肯定是处在一个反弹的早期（原话是 teens）。\n我对通胀始终保持关注。现在有很多人认为通货膨胀已经死了，我想说的是在我职业生涯的早期，那是70年代后期，我和投资经理谈话，他们会说60年代的经济学家宣布通货膨胀死了，但是到73年的时候通货膨胀发生了，欧佩克减产，石油价格翻了两番。\n现在我们看到的是通胀没有起来，资金流向股市和房地产，但是有可能会有这样一种心理预期，即为了摆脱通胀，人们提前把钱花掉。如果资金继续进入资本市场，那么货币的周转速度将会继续下降，并且将分担掉 M2 26%的增长的风险。\n过去我们经历了40年的债券牛市每次债券的逢低买入都是正确的。\n长期我们看空原油价格，高峰是2008年，经济 V 型反弹中会看到油价较大的波动。\n另一个我们非常小心看待的是美元，去年美元贬值了大约7%，也就意味着我们失去了7%的购买力，同时又因为我们的通货膨胀而损失了一点购买力，虽然通货膨胀还是很低甚至可能被夸大了，因为统计的时候不会包括数字经济的消费。\n如果美元在这个位置崩溃了那将是一个非常重大的崩溃，从长期的图表看它将会迫使美联储重新评估政策。\n应对购买力损失，我会把重点放在比特币上。过去一个月比特币翻了一番。前几天我和 Jeff 聊天，他看过很多的图表，相比特币在2017年的高点，通常需要10到20年的时间才能重新回到高点，但是比特币只花了三年的时间，这是一个很罕见的现象。\n这引发了人们的思考：是不是我们在货币政策方面犯了错误？将来我们会怎样为这个错误买单？被普遍认为的一个形式是通货膨胀，而我们解决此问题的首选方法是扩大我们在创新领域的投资。\n大家都在寻找对冲通货膨胀的方法，而我认为没有比比特币更好的了。黄金也在上涨但是它大大落后于比特币，未来两者会怎样，我们到时可以看下。\n我最近接到了不少电话，是公司咨询是否要把比特币放入到资产负债表中的，像 Square 和 micro strategy 已经在这么做了。\n我认为比特币还需要引入更多的监管来验证其价值。美国货币监理署(OCC)负责人Brian Brooks 最近说，公共区块链可以用于交易，而银行可以作为节点参与。这对我来说就好像是黑暗中的一道闪电，我之前从来没有预期过。\n加密货币还有更长的路要走，现在还只是刚开始， 我估计现在比特币的市值大约在7000亿美金，虽然很多人从2万到4万已经赚了一倍，但是7000亿依然不大，可以参考特斯拉都8000亿市值。\n最后 Wood 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analysis","listText":"Good analysis","text":"Good analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335677340","repostId":1102650771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":335852354,"gmtCreate":1610560810178,"gmtModify":1704984639089,"author":{"id":"3571358958074175","authorId":"3571358958074175","name":"华尔街支狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee627d1dc3aa5192af8a49594f9b9cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571358958074175","idStr":"3571358958074175"},"htmlText":"看了股圈很多評論以及外界對比特幣的看法，得出一個結論就是，比特幣會在懷疑中漲到一個大家無法想象的價格，直到大家搶着入場的時候還不會跌。畢竟2020年低點上來最高已經漲了11倍了。現在盤旋在35000美元附近。目測在2024年前大頂在99000美元，理論上再也買不到1萬美元一下的比特幣。本人是比特幣長期持有者，佈道者，踐行者。套用一句比特幣之父中本聰的話: 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btc 替代品太多","listText":"黃金沒有替代品 btc 替代品太多","text":"黃金沒有替代品 btc 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