2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings

seekingalpha2021-04-21

Summary Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day. Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...

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KRPK
·2021-04-22
Hmm. 42% undervalued?
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MrGreen
·2021-04-22
Pls like n comment
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lingling19
·2021-04-22
One comment to receive a like... [財迷]
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1
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ProfitsAll
·2021-04-22
Is it time to consider these?
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- ProfitsAll:
  Lets see about it
  2021-04-22
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- Glenna:
  yes
  2021-04-22
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OWYONG
·2021-04-22
Wow
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2
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JDO
·2021-04-22
Hmmm
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2021koon
·2021-04-22
Baba should be up once china govt no longer focus on them. Rooting for baba
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nywles
·2021-04-22
Believe in BABA
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- ISSEY1413:
  beleiin yourself lol
  2021-04-22
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- lfc:
  why?
  2021-04-22
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moliya
·2021-04-22
Really
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ckh
·2021-04-22
[財迷]
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1nu
·2021-04-22
Help me like and comment:)
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- meowww:
  commented, please comment back
  2021-04-22
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- ckh:
  ok
  2021-04-22
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Fuzzyfuzzy
·2021-04-22
Make one comment and receive one like for 20 coins
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- Fuzzyfuzzy:
  Lol
  2021-05-02
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- Benstonk:
  ownself comment own self
  2021-04-22
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- Fuzzyfuzzy:
  And there we go
  2021-04-22
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Ivyn
·2021-04-22
Wowwww
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- 1nu:
  Help me like and comment:)
  2021-04-22
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Derrick0359
·2021-04-22
[財迷] [財迷]
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- meowww:
  yayy
  2021-04-22
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BigMac8885
·2021-04-22
Nice
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- meowww:
  great
  2021-04-22
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FFIE拿十年
·2021-04-22
up to U
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ICanFly
·2021-04-22
Please like my comment
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- 老木不朽:
  Like and comment. Thanks ‌[爱你]
  2021-04-22
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- SanJunn:
  Sure
  2021-04-22
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JZ8
·2021-04-22
Latest
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nicoco
·2021-04-21
like
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Jchptan
·2021-04-21
Comment pls
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- Bluetan:
  Done
  2021-04-22
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BABA","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","article_id":"1104307372","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","AMZN":"亚马逊","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"translate_title":"2盘簧蓝筹逢低买入提前盈利","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":378241612,"gmtCreate":1619047922136,"gmtModify":1704718696275,"author":{"id":"3554952819125110","authorId":"3554952819125110","authorIdStr":"3554952819125110","name":"KRPK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881610765cd032fe6e1b38c240a49844","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554952819125110"},"htmlText":"Hmm. 42% undervalued?","listText":"Hmm. 42% undervalued?","text":"Hmm. 42% undervalued?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378241612","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378251407,"gmtCreate":1619047466009,"gmtModify":1704718683032,"author":{"id":"3576511277084418","authorId":"3576511277084418","authorIdStr":"3576511277084418","name":"MrGreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d34383baa6cc8886d9224669a807d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576511277084418"},"htmlText":"Pls like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378251407","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378224289,"gmtCreate":1619047217041,"gmtModify":1704718675588,"author":{"id":"3576530038344823","authorId":"3576530038344823","authorIdStr":"3576530038344823","name":"lingling19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b420073cd5b25c775f94911987dfbd89","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576530038344823"},"htmlText":"One comment to receive a like...&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"One comment to receive a like...&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"One comment to receive a like... [財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378224289","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378225527,"gmtCreate":1619047158269,"gmtModify":1704718675101,"author":{"id":"3581642838305895","authorId":"3581642838305895","authorIdStr":"3581642838305895","name":"ProfitsAll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/424b2032a285023ad04a393e7e71b3df","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581642838305895"},"htmlText":"Is it time to consider these?","listText":"Is it time to consider these?","text":"Is it time to consider these?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378225527","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096902,"gmtCreate":1619047551753,"gmtModify":1680785018770,"authorId":3581642838305895,"author":{"id":3581642838305895,"authorId":3581642838305895,"name":"ProfitsAll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/424b2032a285023ad04a393e7e71b3df","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378225527,"type":1,"supId":4096809,"prevId":0,"content":"Lets see about it ","text":"Lets see about it ","html":"Lets see about it "},{"id":4096809,"gmtCreate":1619047221771,"gmtModify":1680785018710,"authorId":3570769377369254,"author":{"id":3570769377369254,"authorId":3570769377369254,"name":"Glenna","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb1540811be40c4d05341502c35498c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378225527,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378228710,"gmtCreate":1619047042930,"gmtModify":1704718671060,"author":{"id":"3580123886907382","authorId":"3580123886907382","authorIdStr":"3580123886907382","name":"OWYONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7740ceb2f12052f71b2b1260d80fdc0","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580123886907382"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378228710","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378223952,"gmtCreate":1619046906576,"gmtModify":1704718667336,"author":{"id":"3581892285296151","authorId":"3581892285296151","authorIdStr":"3581892285296151","name":"JDO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0773772b25da29d845e6408e45e12846","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581892285296151"},"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378223952","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378262602,"gmtCreate":1619046592706,"gmtModify":1704718659097,"author":{"id":"3575363327829260","authorId":"3575363327829260","authorIdStr":"3575363327829260","name":"2021koon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad08d3b98fb2d860daf2e2b2916dc11e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575363327829260"},"htmlText":"Baba should be up once china govt no longer focus on them. Rooting for baba","listText":"Baba should be up once china govt no longer focus on them. Rooting for baba","text":"Baba should be up once china govt no longer focus on them. Rooting for baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378262602","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378284284,"gmtCreate":1619046002148,"gmtModify":1704718649724,"author":{"id":"3555362771681553","authorId":"3555362771681553","authorIdStr":"3555362771681553","name":"nywles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7e6473ec2cec348d167d7d95fbdb76c","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555362771681553"},"htmlText":"Believe in BABA","listText":"Believe in BABA","text":"Believe in BABA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378284284","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096727,"gmtCreate":1619046933019,"gmtModify":1680785014729,"authorId":3580024367177542,"author":{"id":3580024367177542,"authorId":3580024367177542,"name":"ISSEY1413","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aae359514ad4455bfc28cf62f608a5e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.13","exceedPercentage":"93.60%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378284284,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"beleiin yourself lol","text":"beleiin yourself lol","html":"beleiin yourself lol"},{"id":4096541,"gmtCreate":1619046036150,"gmtModify":1680785012808,"authorId":3581548490826504,"author":{"id":3581548490826504,"authorId":3581548490826504,"name":"lfc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2090d7d1e1d6aeaf607ff329136ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378284284,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"why?","text":"why?","html":"why?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378285082,"gmtCreate":1619045869146,"gmtModify":1704718647461,"author":{"id":"3552850525395609","authorId":"3552850525395609","authorIdStr":"3552850525395609","name":"moliya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3552850525395609"},"htmlText":"Really&nbsp;","listText":"Really&nbsp;","text":"Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378285082","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378282102,"gmtCreate":1619045800606,"gmtModify":1704718647139,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3568200501659310"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378282102","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378212123,"gmtCreate":1619045164062,"gmtModify":1704718632358,"author":{"id":"3577610430427001","authorId":"3577610430427001","authorIdStr":"3577610430427001","name":"1nu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15789a74f3eb14371af59c44a8f71041","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577610430427001"},"htmlText":"Help me like and comment:)","listText":"Help me like and comment:)","text":"Help me like and comment:)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378212123","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096493,"gmtCreate":1619045752217,"gmtModify":1680785011065,"authorId":3579406182113787,"author":{"id":3579406182113787,"authorId":3579406182113787,"name":"meowww","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eaf843d0b4b644ee658145fc7493b24","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378212123,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"commented, please comment back","text":"commented, please comment back","html":"commented, please comment back"},{"id":4096495,"gmtCreate":1619045765208,"gmtModify":1680785008792,"authorId":3568200501659310,"author":{"id":3568200501659310,"authorId":3568200501659310,"name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378212123,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378218555,"gmtCreate":1619044970277,"gmtModify":1704718630419,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576849200483737"},"htmlText":"Make one comment and receive one like for 20 coins","listText":"Make one comment and receive one like for 20 coins","text":"Make one comment and receive one like for 20 coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378218555","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4193364,"gmtCreate":1619886792556,"gmtModify":1680786527438,"authorId":3576849200483737,"author":{"id":3576849200483737,"authorId":3576849200483737,"name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378218555,"type":1,"supId":4096422,"prevId":0,"content":"Lol","text":"Lol","html":"Lol"},{"id":4096422,"gmtCreate":1619045389761,"gmtModify":1680785009846,"authorId":3574851080358491,"author":{"id":3574851080358491,"authorId":3574851080358491,"name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378218555,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ownself comment own self","text":"ownself comment own self","html":"ownself comment own self"},{"id":4096367,"gmtCreate":1619045020145,"gmtModify":1680785009211,"authorId":3576849200483737,"author":{"id":3576849200483737,"authorId":3576849200483737,"name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378218555,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"And there we go","text":"And there we go","html":"And there we go"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378290713,"gmtCreate":1619042395932,"gmtModify":1704718598227,"author":{"id":"3574369575855815","authorId":"3574369575855815","authorIdStr":"3574369575855815","name":"Ivyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b07a9b2035b6533de027e7a22492444b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574369575855815"},"htmlText":"Wowwww","listText":"Wowwww","text":"Wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378290713","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096399,"gmtCreate":1619045183203,"gmtModify":1680785009095,"authorId":3577610430427001,"author":{"id":3577610430427001,"authorId":3577610430427001,"name":"1nu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15789a74f3eb14371af59c44a8f71041","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378290713,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment:)","text":"Help me like and comment:)","html":"Help me like and comment:)"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378290978,"gmtCreate":1619042339994,"gmtModify":1704718597423,"author":{"id":"3574151642706297","authorId":"3574151642706297","authorIdStr":"3574151642706297","name":"Derrick0359","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4377b13ebe2fd65f630bf249fd6624","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574151642706297"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷] [財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378290978","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096501,"gmtCreate":1619045794528,"gmtModify":1680785007927,"authorId":3579406182113787,"author":{"id":3579406182113787,"authorId":3579406182113787,"name":"meowww","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eaf843d0b4b644ee658145fc7493b24","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378290978,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yayy","text":"yayy","html":"yayy"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378678483,"gmtCreate":1619039449142,"gmtModify":1704718577199,"author":{"id":"3579506230138289","authorId":"3579506230138289","authorIdStr":"3579506230138289","name":"BigMac8885","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579506230138289"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378678483","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096499,"gmtCreate":1619045783822,"gmtModify":1680785007818,"authorId":3579406182113787,"author":{"id":3579406182113787,"authorId":3579406182113787,"name":"meowww","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eaf843d0b4b644ee658145fc7493b24","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378678483,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"great","text":"great","html":"great"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378671911,"gmtCreate":1619037897833,"gmtModify":1704718574612,"author":{"id":"3577139034878958","authorId":"3577139034878958","authorIdStr":"3577139034878958","name":"FFIE拿十年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3543b4f6ce8da7a47634e4e6223c58","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577139034878958"},"htmlText":"up to U","listText":"up to U","text":"up to U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378671911","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378669177,"gmtCreate":1619023342599,"gmtModify":1704718521318,"author":{"id":"3581492445126908","authorId":"3581492445126908","authorIdStr":"3581492445126908","name":"ICanFly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581492445126908"},"htmlText":"Please like my comment","listText":"Please like my comment","text":"Please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378669177","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096069,"gmtCreate":1619042274027,"gmtModify":1680785004371,"authorId":3548659340886358,"author":{"id":3548659340886358,"authorId":3548659340886358,"name":"老木不朽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7c249f8702df4b6d4a8a6346ce6b5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378669177,"type":1,"supId":4096054,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment. Thanks ‌[爱你]","text":"Like and comment. Thanks ‌[爱你]","html":"Like and comment. Thanks ‌[爱你]"},{"id":4096054,"gmtCreate":1619042016223,"gmtModify":1680785001989,"authorId":3573673722181526,"author":{"id":3573673722181526,"authorId":3573673722181526,"name":"SanJunn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c6809a1be9f1cc1adde008aa6dd4de","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.11","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378669177,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure ","text":"Sure ","html":"Sure "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378637535,"gmtCreate":1619021333727,"gmtModify":1704718495222,"author":{"id":"3577615574373101","authorId":"3577615574373101","authorIdStr":"3577615574373101","name":"JZ8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04dae5b4766e8a487aa32e7285435c4c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577615574373101"},"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378637535","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378633312,"gmtCreate":1619020696636,"gmtModify":1704718484549,"author":{"id":"3579903850271065","authorId":"3579903850271065","authorIdStr":"3579903850271065","name":"nicoco","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579903850271065"},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378633312","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378697378,"gmtCreate":1619020515994,"gmtModify":1704718480188,"author":{"id":"3547639144615679","authorId":"3547639144615679","authorIdStr":"3547639144615679","name":"Jchptan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97f1aa10a314dfb46a4e618e4f46ac6","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547639144615679"},"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378697378","repostId":1104307372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104307372","pubTimestamp":1619018533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104307372?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104307372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or fall","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.</li>\n <li>Buying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.</li>\n <li>BABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.</li>\n <li>BABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&amp;P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.</li>\n <li>Amazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\">Photo by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511951adba95cf55ebe8419d6304fc77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\">\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3311d600a9d95028516e311f525024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"649\">\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae48fbd18c76727919d66ca0e39074d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5789a44b3165fc428f5988f8868c95e\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\">\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell</li>\n <li>Alibaba reports Friday, April 30th</li>\n</ul>\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>deep value investors</li>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n <li>investors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)</li>\n <li>those who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)</li>\n <li>no dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"</li>\n <li>never invest milk money, that's gambling not investing</li>\n</ul>\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d227f2437f696234628366e8e510a8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">Seeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n<blockquote>\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n</blockquote>\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce49bee3e9d7ea495248e884da653d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\">\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n<blockquote>\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n<blockquote>\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n</blockquote>\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n<blockquote>\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&amp;D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n</blockquote>\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n<ul>\n <li>2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually</li>\n <li>from 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%</li>\n</ul>\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51946393605ded68e249c0fcb1ea3a81\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"739\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n<ul>\n <li>R&amp;D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>growth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026</li>\n <li>total growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dae915e8cf78c26fe8c933f15e2b8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"608\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48aa250353402b73c1e5e74df9c28209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\">Source: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n<ul>\n <li>0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386375bcf843529c145fc3eae1c1e3a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Gurufocus\n<ul>\n <li>M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud</li>\n <li>In 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt</li>\n <li>which is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not</li>\n <li>BABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud</li>\n <li>confirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor</li>\n <li>and which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades</li>\n</ul>\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e91e58e5cf44bc1561f22f5c424dce0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n<ul>\n <li>basically the population of the US</li>\n <li>by 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe</li>\n</ul>\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n<blockquote>\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a&nbsp;regulatory filing revealed this week.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854434bc998e4c69eafe57d1010b4375\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\">Source: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n<blockquote>\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n</blockquote>\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c117ddc033e72f4e094ba7d032307cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f846b962d2aa6d3ebf1ad70d5938ace\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\">\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b166fd21088642dd18933b03549a4507\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"760\">Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n<ul>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $352 and $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594f926b373349d852429b8d361c427a\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"721\">\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e9988e7b8ee2a059f6b0e760f0c5d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>83% total returns</li>\n <li>36% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bc2b26c4bd03b11903aaa86335d562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da580aa10baf0cbed941565aa90a32bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)</li>\n <li>26.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>5.1X the S&amp;P 500's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nS&amp;P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a699ac731d8410c77fc315283122d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>total return investors</li>\n <li>core investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential</li>\n <li>those comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk</li>\n <li>volatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)</li>\n</ul>\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n<ul>\n <li>those uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks</li>\n <li>those who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today</li>\n <li>investors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79deb890df9d3f3c3f9e96d6c4f3daea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has&nbsp;over 200 million global members.\n<blockquote>\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it&nbsp;\n among our top picks&nbsp;currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the&nbsp;\n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de04ef81f109f920d06f9f7b5da7d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581799d79d245f3d41ee6c15d0db1399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n<ul>\n <li>2020 R&amp;D spending: $37.7 billion</li>\n <li>2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion</li>\n <li>2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus R&amp;D $75.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion</li>\n <li>2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion</li>\n</ul>\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991c82e8f94a8864f998a86ce220f001\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n<ul>\n <li>AWS had 30% operating margins in 2020</li>\n <li>by 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%</li>\n <li>Piper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon</li>\n</ul>\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3731f64ff998478958f089791a62262a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"731\">Source: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books</li>\n <li>it's now apparently spending&nbsp;$465 million on the first season alone</li>\n <li>Amazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc</li>\n <li>meaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history</li>\n <li>vs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)</li>\n <li>this show might be GOT on crack</li>\n</ul>\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n<ul>\n <li>try many, seemingly crazy things</li>\n <li>double down on those that work</li>\n <li>and thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world</li>\n</ul>\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd658819b2ca7b9229873f302a76e1c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffe8333521b97312b717e009135c6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.1</td>\n <td>$4,857</td>\n <td>$4,210</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.1</td>\n <td>$3,252</td>\n <td>$3,472</td>\n <td>$4,128</td>\n <td>$4,879</td>\n <td>$7,362</td>\n <td>$8,838</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.3</td>\n <td>$2,964</td>\n <td>$4,645</td>\n <td>$6,066</td>\n <td>$8,484</td>\n <td>$11,001</td>\n <td>$13,692</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>40.0</td>\n <td>$3,101</td>\n <td>$5,534</td>\n <td>$6,961</td>\n <td>$8,602</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$3,409</td>\n <td>$4,341</td>\n <td>$5,447</td>\n <td>$6,832</td>\n <td>$8,821</td>\n <td>$10,742</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,373.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>51%</td>\n <td>62%</td>\n <td>69%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>29%</td>\n <td>61%</td>\n <td>103%</td>\n <td>162%</td>\n <td>218%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341</li>\n</ul>\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ded6ada1fc124d870915b9fb084f44\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"692\">\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd26a418a7c560bf478695b15286743e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>46% total returns</li>\n <li>15.0% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 0.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a96c6447ae50a6062409f71613873\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n<ul>\n <li>192% total returns</li>\n <li>20.7% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs 5.1% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li>4X the market's consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as&nbsp;MMP,BTI, or&nbsp;ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n<blockquote>\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".\n</blockquote>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Coiled Spring Blue-Chip Bargains To Buy Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420181-amazon-and-alibaba-two-coiled-spring-blue-chip-bargains-to-buy-ahead-of-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104307372","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings season can be a time of incredible volatility, with even blue chips rising or falling as much as 20% in a day.\nBuying undervalued hyper-growth blue chips with fantastic track records of smashing expectations quarter after quarter is a good way to maximize the odds of a glorious earnings rally.\nBABA and AMZN are two of the best hyper-growth blue-chip bargains on Wall Street today. They also have a consistent record of significantly beating expectations for the last four years.\nBABA is 42% undervalued, a speculative SWAN tech giant out of China whose investment thesis has remained firmly intact despite the recent regulatory crackdown. Analysts expect BABA to potentially beat the S&P 500 by 5X over the next five years, a nearly 300% consensus return potential.\nAmazon is the best Ultra SWAN quality hyper-growth bargain on Wall Street, a 22% margin of safety. Analysts expect AMZN to potentially triple over the next five years. Backing up those estimates is some of the most impressive growth investment and margin expansion in corporate American history. Charlie Munger has invested $37 million into BABA, while I've invested about $200K into BABA and Amazon over the past year. \"When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett.\n\nPhoto by JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nEarnings season is famous for high volatility, especially for individual companies.\nIt's impossible to predict just which companies will experience the biggest pops or crashes. That's because in the short term very little of a stock's returns are explained by fundamentals or valuation.\n\nOver the long term, valuation and fundamentals are 11X as powerful as sentiment/luck.\n\nBasically, over the long term, fundamentals and valuation are all pretty much all that matters.\nAccording to Bank of America's (BAC) head of quant research, if fundamentals are stable, 80% of long-term returns (10+ years) are due to valuation mean reversion.\n\nHowever, investors looking for a short-term pop in price can make high probability/low-risk decisions, such as buying quality fast-growing blue-chips who are pricing in less growth than analysts expect in the short-term.\nToday I wanted to highlight two hyper-growth blue chips that are potential coiled springs, just waiting for a positive catalyst to potentially send them soaring, Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA).\n\nAmazon reports earnings Thursday, April 29th, after the bell\nAlibaba reports Friday, April 30th\n\nAlibaba: The Best Coiled Spring In Hyper-Growth Tech Could Be Set To Soar\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of BABA's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Alibaba\n\ndeep value investors\ntotal return investors\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including VIE regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\ninvestors who are OK with BABA's low ESG risk score (24th industry percentile)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Alibaba\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of Chinese tech stocks (they are inherently speculative regardless of quality or growth outlook)\nthose who lack discretionary savings (money you won't need for 5+ years)\nno dividend stock regardless of quality or safety is a \"bond alternative\" or a \"cash alternative\"\nnever invest milk money, that's gambling not investing\n\nThe thesis behind buying Alibaba ahead of earnings is threefold.\nFirst, Alibaba's track record for beating expectations is exceptional.\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the last four years, BABA has beaten expectations 85% of the time, and most of the time by double digits.\nNext, we have the recent positive news surrounding the $2.8 billion antitrust fine imposed by Beijing.\nHow could that possibly be good news?\n\n HSBC says Alibaba's \"Sword of Damocles\" has been lifted with regulatory risks priced in and antitrust concerns largely put to rest.\n\n\n The firm says BABA's antitrust penalty has \"no fundamental impact on the business or GMV\" since the case \"affects only a number of Tmall flagship stores that are directly operated by brands.\"\n\n\n HSBC does note that the internet sector is still subject to merger control review by Chinese regulators but says Alibaba isn't under any other current antitrust scrutiny.\n\n\n The earnings impact from the antitrust fine is \"manageable,\" representing 19% of FCF as of December 2020.\" -Seeking Alpha\n\nBecause Alibaba's worst-case scenario involved drastic actions, such as a breakup, or forced asset sales, or other means of regulations that could have significantly reduced the growth outlook for the largest tech firm in China.\n\nThe earnings conference call will be another opportunity for management to clarify how it plans to adapt to tougher regulations for all Chinese tech firms, including its chief rivals.\nFor now, analysts have become more bullish on BABA's growth outlook than before the November crackdown began.\nThat crackdown began with the abrupt cancellation of the Ant Financial IPO, which was expected to be the largest in history. An IPO that, according to Reuters,might still happen in the future.\nHowever, while Alibaba owns about 33% of Ant Financial, whether or not that IPO happens, isn't material to BABA's long-term growth story.\n\n We have more visibility regarding the regulator's expectations for Ant Group's restructuring and we think these also apply to China's fintech industry as a whole.\n\n\n Overall we believe the regulator's guidelines for Ant's restructuring are within our expectations for all Ant's financial activities to be subject to regulations, on par with traditional financial institutions, as mentioned in our Alibaba report published in January.\" - Morningstar\n\nMorningstar doesn't expect the Ant IPO, whenever it happens (or doesn't) to significantly impact BABA's thesis or its fair value estimate.\n\n At the current stage, we expect the valuation impact of Ant's restructuring tilts toward our base case and bear case assumptions, resulting in a 29% to 55% reduction to our prior IPO valuation for Ant.The respective cut to Alibaba's fair value estimate is minimal at 0% to 3%...Alibaba is cheap in either case. We have accounted for the contribution from its holding of the 33% stake of Ant. Alibaba did not disclose the contribution of Huabei to its gross merchandise value but said it is low.\"\n\nBank of America, in its April 12th note looking at the effects of the fine concluded\n\n We expect Alibaba to remain the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms. Its leadership position enables it to benefitfrom industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry-leading B2B and cloud services and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce, new retail, O2O, and an affiliate, Ant Technology.\" - Bank of America\n\nWhat effects does BAC expect from the increased regulations?\n\n2020 to 2023 FCF growth rate falls from 26% to 20% annually\nfrom 2023 to 2026 FCF growth accelerates from 22% to 24%\n\nHow can BABA still retain hyper-growth rates in the face of higher regulatory costs?\nAs BAC notes, management has said it plans to increase investments into value-added services to grow both users and its merchant base.\nOK, so Morningstar and Bank of America say that BABA's thesis remains intact.\nGuess what? So does the consensus of all 57 analysts that cover BABA for Wall Street (more coverage than almost any other company on earth).\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nAlibaba was expected to grow like a weed before the regulatory crackdown. Now that we have a lot clearer picture of greater regulations...it's still expected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on earth.\nDespite analysts expecting massive growth investments in the coming years, BABA's margins are expected to hold up relatively well, or even expand.\n\nR&D spending expected to rise from $6 billion in 2020 to $19.3 billion in 2026\ngrowth capex spending expected to rise from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $16.0 billion in 2026\ntotal growth spending rising from $12.6 billion to $35.3 billion\n\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nFor context, 19% FCF margins analysts expect in 2024 would be on par with what Apple (AAPL) enjoys today. Most e-commerce giants, including Amazon, can only dream of such profitability, which is expected to improve even more once the growth investment phase of the business is completed.\nSource: Gurufocus\nIn fact, as far as balance sheet and profitability go, BABA is in the top 20% of global peers and has been since it started trading on the NYSE in 2014.\nS&P, Fitch, and Moody's, factoring the entire risk profile, including account fraud, corporate governance, and other ESG variables, rate BABA A+ stable outlook (or its equivalent).\n\n0.6% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\nSource: Gurufocus\n\nM-score is 76% historically accurate at catching account fraud\nIn 2000 students at Cornell using only this metric predicted Enron was losing millions, covering it up with fraud, and would soon go bankrupt\nwhich is what happened, analysts missed it the M-score did not\nBABA's current and historical M-score indicates a less than 17.5% probability of accounting fraud\nconfirmed by six rating agencies and PWC HK, which is BABA's auditor\nand which has used US GAAP accounting standards for decades\n\nIn other words, nothing that has sent BABA's shares skidding in recent months appears to have permanently harmed the investment thesis.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nBABA is still expected to gain over 300 million monthly users within the next five years.\n\nbasically the population of the US\nby 2026 a user base almost equal to the population of Europe\n\nIt's still expected to more than quadruple revenue and grow EBITDA by over 400%.\nOver the long-term analysts still expect close to 25% annual growth from BABA.\n\n Charlie Munger may be a 97-year-old who has spent decades investing in American corporate giants like Coca-Cola and Costco, but he's also open to backing Chinese technology companies.\n\n\n Daily Journal - which has counted Munger as its chairman since 1977 - added Alibaba to its stock portfolio last quarter, a regulatory filing revealed this week.\n\n\n The newspaper publisher and software developer bought 165,000 shares in the Chinese e-commerce group. Its stake was worth $37 million at the end of March, making Alibaba its third-biggest position after Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The holding made up 19% of its $197 million portfolios, which contains only five stocks.\" -Business Insider\n\nSource: SEC\nCharlie Munger not only helps Warren Buffett manage Berkshire's $200 billion portfolio, but also runs the Daily Journal's $200 million portfolio.\nMunger is a big proponent of concentrated portfolios, with just a handful of ultra-high conviction names.\nThe Daily Journal owns just five companies, one of which is a 19% allocation to Alibaba, a new holding. In a span of a few months, Charlie Munger bought $37 million worth of BABA for this portfolio.\nI've personally bought BABA 133 times over the past year, investing $79,000 into the largest Chinese tech giant, at the best valuations in its history.\n\n When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" - Warren Buffett\n\nOK, so maybe 57 analysts, 6 rating agencies, and Charlie Munger are all bullish on Alibaba. And maybe its track record for beating expectations in the last few years is very good.\nBut how good are analysts at predicting this complex company's hyper-growth rates over the long term?\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\nSource: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research\nBABA is trading at approximately a 42% discount to the average historical fair value, creating massive short-term upside potential. BABA could double by March 2023 and merely return to fair value if it grows as expected.\n\n2021 fair value range: $352 and $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $404\n\n\nFor anyone comfortable with BABA's risk profile, this is a potentially very strong (but speculative) buy.\nWhat kind of returns might we expect from the most undervalued hyper-growth company on Wall Street?\nAlibaba 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n83% total returns\n36% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nBABA at its potential 42% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 87% over the next three years.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nAlibaba 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n296% total returns (almost quadruple your investment)\n26.0% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n5.1X the S&P 500's consensus return potential\n\nS&P 500 2025 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nBasically, BABA is a speculative Buffett/Munger style \"fat pitch\" that I've been swinging away at for months.\nNot because I hope that the thesis remains intact, but because the 63 experts who know this company best say it is, and are willing to invest tens of millions alongside me.\nAmazon: The Best Hyper-Growth Ultra SWAN Bargain On Wall Street\nFurther Research (Including A Detailed Analysis Of AMZN's Risk Profile)\nWho Should Consider Buying Amazon\n\ntotal return investors\ncore investors seeking to maximize fundamental risk-adjusted return potential\nthose comfortable with the complex risk profile of US tech giants (see the deep dive article above) - including increased regulatory risk\nvolatility tolerant investors who understand that headline risk can result in sharp short-term volatility (even double-digit declines in a single day)\n\nWho Shouldn't Consider Buying Amazon\n\nthose uncomfortable with the risk profile of US tech stocks\nthose who can't afford to buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend today\ninvestors seeking a \"get rich quick\" instant profit (tech could remain under pressure from steadily rising interest rates for several months or even years)\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLike Alibaba, Amazon's track record for smashing expectations is impressive. It often beats expectations by over 50% in any given quarter.\nIn Jeff Bezos' last annual letter to shareholders as CEO, he outlined both an ambitious goal to become the world's best employer (the Costco business model of employee loyalty/productivity) and disclosed that Amazon Prime now has over 200 million global members.\n\n We view shares of wide-moat Amazon as increasingly attractive in the recent sell-off related to growth-oriented technology stocks, and we highlight it \n among our top picks currently while reiterating our $4,000 fair value estimate.\n\n\n Our long-term investment case centers around Amazon's dominance in both e-commerce and public cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS) as well as its quiet strength in its unique advertising business...\n\n\n Amazon Prime offers benefits that make shopping on Amazon properties even more compelling for consumers while providing recurring cash flow. These factors have combined to create the \n only demand aggregator of substance in the United States...\n\n\n We also see technology advancements in AWS and a bigger push to service enterprise customers as helping to sustain the company's lead there.\n Overall, we see strong revenue and free cash flow growth for years to come.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMorningstar is very bullish on Amazon, and so are most analysts. I've personally invested about $200,000 into the company, part of my plan to invest $1 million in total over several decades.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\n50 analysts cover Amazon on Wall Street, as well as six major rating agencies.\nTogether these 56 experts cover the entire risk profile of the company and let Dividend Kings members know whether any scary headlines significantly alter the fundamental thesis.\nWith a 37% growth consensus, on par with such growth darlings as Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX), Amazon's hyper-growth thesis remains firmly intact.\n\nHow on earth can a company so big be expected to grow so fast beyond for more than a few years?\nAmazon has invested hundreds of billions into growth over the decades and is expected to keep accelerating growth investments for the foreseeable future.\n\n2020 R&D spending: $37.7 billion\n2020 growth capex spending: $35.0 billion\n2020 total growth spending: $72.7 billion\n2026 consensus R&D $75.9 billion\n2026 consensus capex spending: $45.9 billion\n2026 consensus growth spending: $121.8 billion\n\nFew companies on Earth can dream of $122 billion in sales. Just one is expected to spend that much on annual growth within five years, and that's Amazon.\nYet even with an almost 100% increase in growth Amazon's margins are expected to increase significantly in the coming years.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nMargin expansion of almost 200% in some cases is due to Amazon's key earnings drivers being its fastest-growing segments.\n\nAWS had 30% operating margins in 2020\nby 2026 analysts expect economies of scale to bring that up to 46%\nPiper Jaffrey estimates that advertising is generating 75% operating margins for Amazon\n\nAmazon's ecosystem is glorious.\nThe more people sign up for Prime, the more likely they are to use Amazon's services.\nThe more people use Amazon's services the more data it has to feed into its machine-learning algorithms.\nWhich improves AWS data analytics, even more, helping grow AWS's moat.\nAnd also improving the conversions on advertising (already 4X that of Alphabet).\nMeanwhile, Amazon's economies of scale mean it's able to offer consumers more of what they want, at lower costs than almost any rival, with free two-day shipping, and 2-hour shipping for a modest convenience fee.\nBasically, great prices, incredible convenience, and Prime benefits that keep expanding and already number in the dozens.\nTo give you a small idea of the logistical advantage Amazon has, according to McClatchy, Amazon has 57 warehouses serving just the Philadelphia metro area.\nSource: FactSet Research Terminal\nThe only thing more impressive than Amazon's growth estimates is the absolute values of its earnings and cash flow estimates.\nAmazon could become the first $1 trillion revenue company in history (not adjusted for inflation). By 2023 it's expected to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the #1 sales company on earth.\nBy 2024 it's expected to become the first company in history to achieve $100 billion in free cash flow, a figure that's expected to grow by 56% over just the following two years. And that's despite investing $122 billion into further growth in 2026 alone.\nHow on earth can Amazon spend that much on growth? Let's consider the upcoming Lord of the Rings TV show coming to Amazon Prime.\n\nAmazon spent $250 million on the rights to make a TV show prequel to the movies and books\nit's now apparently spending $465 million on the first season alone\nAmazon is rumored to be planning a 5-season arc\nmeaning that it might end up spending $2 billion on the largest TV show in history\nvs $1.5 billion that HBO spent on 8 seasons of Game of Thrones (which netted it $1.6 billion in profit)\nthis show might be GOT on crack\n\nIs spending $2+ billion on a TV show a good use of shareholder capital? Only time will tell. I am a Prime member, but not because I want to watch Lord of the Rings. Most certainly I will tune in if just to see what $40+ million per episode means in terms of sets and production values.\nBut the point is that Amazon is one of the few companies on earth, that can throw billions at an idea that might or might now work. That's been the key to the company's success for 20 years.\n\ntry many, seemingly crazy things\ndouble down on those that work\nand thus potentially disrupt every major industry in the world\n\nBasically, this is a world-beating empire and one that is potentially set to smash expectations yet again while trading at a significant discount to fair value.\nAmazon Is The Best Ultra SWAN Hyper-Growth Company You Can Buy Today\nFirst, it's important to point out that despite one of the most complex businesses on earth, analysts have a generally good idea of how to forecast this company's growth.\n\nDespite a very complex business model, analysts are relatively accurate at forecast cash flow growth courtesy of good management guidance.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade are less than 25% to the downside, 30% to the upside\n\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.1\n$4,857\n$4,210\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.1\n$3,252\n$3,472\n$4,128\n$4,879\n$7,362\n$8,838\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.3\n$2,964\n$4,645\n$6,066\n$8,484\n$11,001\n$13,692\n\n\nEBITDA\n40.0\n$3,101\n$5,534\n$6,961\n$8,602\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$3,409\n$4,341\n$5,447\n$6,832\n$8,821\n$10,742\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,373.03\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n1%\n22%\n38%\n51%\n62%\n69%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n1%\n29%\n61%\n103%\n162%\n218%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon is trading at a 32% discount to this year's fundamental consensus estimates.\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of 2025 would result in about 218% CAGR total returns\n2021 fair value range: $3,472 to $5,534\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $4,341\n\nMorningstar estimates the fair value at about $4,000 using its proprietary DCF model. The 12 month-consensus price target on Wall Street is $4021.\nI can't tell you when Amazon will climb over $4,000 but based on the four relatively-non compressing fair value multiples I use in my model, I can tell you that $4K within 12 months would still mean AMZN is a great bargain.\n\nAmazon is about 22% undervalued today, but it trades at $4,000 in 12 months, it will still be roughly the same discount to fair value as it is now.\nThat's the power of hyper-growth at a reasonable price.\nAmazon 2023 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n46% total returns\n15.0% CAGR returns\nvs 0.1% CAGR S&P 500\n\nUsing the most conservative fair value multiple shows AMZN at its potential 22% discount has the potential to outperform the 37% overvalued S&P 500 by 46% over the next three years.\nAmazon 2026 Consensus Return Potential\nSource: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research\nIf AMZN grows as analysts expect through 2026, and returns to its historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n192% total returns\n20.7% CAGR returns\nvs 5.1% CAGR S&P 500\n4X the market's consensus return potential\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba And Amazon Are 2 Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bargains Set To Soar After Earnings\nI can't guarantee that either BABA or AMZN will beat expectations in any given quarter. Their four-year track records indicate they probably will, creating potentially strong short-term upside from currently attractive valuations.\nBut far more important than what either stock does on April 30th is where these prices are likely headed in the next 5+ years.\nBoth Alibaba and Amazon are tech juggernauts with complex risk profiles. They aren't right for everyone, no company is.\nBut for those seeking hyper-growth blue-chips at reasonable to very attractive valuations, the time to open or add to a position in BABA or Amazon, could be now.\nIf you combine BABA and AMZN with high-yield blue-chips such as MMP,BTI, or ENB, then you can enjoy generous, safe, and growing yield today, with exceptional total returns in the future.\nThat's how I approach every growth investment, pairing it with the best high-yield blue-chips on earth, so I can have my cake and eat it too. Getting paid to own Amazon and BABA at these valuations is both greedy, possible, and sensible.\nIn a market fraught with many dangerous speculative bubbles, BABA and AMZN represent some of the lowest risk/highest probability hyper-growth investments you can make today.\nThis is why I've invested about $280,000 into these two companies alone in the past year.\nHigh conviction ideas? You bet. But as Buffett said, \"when it's raining gold reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\"\nBABA and AMZN are fat pitch hyper-growth blue-chips that are just one catalyst away from a potentially major and sustained rally. A large earnings beat could be just what it takes to send one or both soaring.\nBasically, it's time to stop praying for luck on Wall Street, and start making your own. Not through market timing, but through a disciplined application of financial science.\nOne that is best summarized by Joel Greenblatt, who delivered 40% annual returns for 21 years, through a focus on quality and value.\n\n \"We're buying above-average quality companies at below-average prices\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4095260,"gmtCreate":1619020833355,"gmtModify":1680784992687,"authorId":3574045310314391,"author":{"id":3574045310314391,"authorId":3574045310314391,"name":"Bluetan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08bbb20e6f394d74fc7020c446c6248","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378697378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":68,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}