Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real

seekingalpha2021-08-24

Summary Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150. 5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22. The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...

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Williamw
·2021-08-25
Apple strong
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CCCH
·2021-08-24
Can buy now ?
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PeterLim007
·2021-08-24
Am wondering why Warren Buffet has yet tooffload his Apple. A point to ponder.
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- LimLS:
  He did offload a portion earlier this year and he regretted it. But he also is not super well versed in tech. Apple is definitely a stock to hold for long term which match well with Buffet style
  2021-08-25
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Hoppie
·2021-08-24
[Speechless]
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Tomahawk
·2021-08-24
Rational analysis, irrational price.
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- koolgal:
  Well said??
  2021-09-11
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Tomahawk
·2021-08-24
Rational analysis, irrational price.
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sSS
·2021-08-24
Like pls thanks comment too
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- Blackbunny:
  done
  2021-08-24
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kslee9566
·2021-08-24
Fly
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Alvinsan
·2021-08-24
Lmao, overpriced? How about nvidia? That's the one that's overpriced, overvalued.
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- Foxie:
  Thisnis so true.
  2021-08-24
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- Targarean:
  There is so much bias in these articles. I’m sure we can dig out a SeekingAlpha article recommending to buy Nvidia ?
  
  Why use 15x PE when other FAANG stocks are double that PE
  2021-08-24
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走在雨中
·2021-08-24
年入4000億美元，越是高端，越有人追，越追越高端
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stephh
·2021-08-24
Appl
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Issey
·2021-08-24
I believe if you are a long term investor for Apple then the price of $150 shouldn’t be a factor. DCA always even in ups or downs. Just saying if it gets to $1500 one day then when you look back and realise this $150 wouldn’t have meant much. But that’s my opinion so have a wonderful day everyone! Green green days ahead for all!
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- Kel9670ongReplying toIssey:
  TBH apple has been losing market share
  2021-08-24
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- Issey:
  谢了我也祝你发财！
  2021-08-24
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- 宝宝金水_:
  我是苹果的股东，我希望你的预言完全正确。
  2021-08-24
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Kencom
·2021-08-24
The support is 146, now moving sideways. In order to sustain at 150. Need strong positive news to break it.
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- oddox:
  positive news such as Apple electric car? ?
  2021-08-24
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FrickL
·2021-08-24
Like please.
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- AliPharma:
  ok
  2021-08-24
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- BraydenChin:
  like pls
  2021-08-24
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SanWangtikup
·2021-08-24
Apple still a leader
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1
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STKG
·2021-08-24
Apple will. Let's see.
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JinHan
·2021-08-24
These article is mainly around valuation and financial. It is definitely a good analysis and made severalgood points. However, what it failed to address is the new growth revenue such as Apple Car (yes, this is far fetched but in the pipeline) and other new Apple Products. Yes, as a trader, you will buy/ sell frequently and take profits off the table. But as a long term investor, every pullback is a buying opportunity!I am a long term Apple investor and I am not really bothered by the valuation. I buy on every pullback because I believe Apple is here to stay for the next5-30years.
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- LuffyxTarO:
  yea i know, I bought it already ?
  2021-08-26
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- NEWBIE:
  why wait....
  2021-08-26
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- LuffyxTarO:
  Yo, should i get apple stocks now ? or should i wait ?
  2021-08-26
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Jack_Chen_qy
·2021-08-24
Nice
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Sam87
·2021-08-24
Noted
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- Teslawonder:
  170 by new launch series. ?
  2021-08-25
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- Sam87:
  Good
  2021-08-24
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CoolFox
·2021-08-24
If you are a any type of trader but investor, you may sell it soon…. As far as i am concerned i am gonna hold them due to the continuous and increasingbusiness value.
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- 大白兔女生:
  Looking at the chart, its share price may hit one more high before retracement. But as you mentioned, a value investor like you will continue to hold regardless of short-term price movement.
  2021-08-24
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- Jazzc85:
  [OK]
  2021-08-24
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- JAMKKT:
  Ok
  2021-08-24
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","article_id":"1104413070","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果：150美元的斗争是真实的","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":837901524,"gmtCreate":1629850837968,"gmtModify":1676530149654,"author":{"id":"3572240910775763","authorId":"3572240910775763","name":"Williamw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecafced5a6c16b176940098e09cf69b6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572240910775763","idStr":"3572240910775763"},"htmlText":"Apple strong","listText":"Apple strong","text":"Apple strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837901524","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834229391,"gmtCreate":1629808140313,"gmtModify":1676530137395,"author":{"id":"3579259217271611","authorId":"3579259217271611","name":"CCCH","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579259217271611","idStr":"3579259217271611"},"htmlText":"Can buy now ?","listText":"Can buy now ?","text":"Can buy now ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834229391","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834264708,"gmtCreate":1629807938104,"gmtModify":1676530137339,"author":{"id":"3586816980712005","authorId":"3586816980712005","name":"PeterLim007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda5daaf1ef85159ce1d5fd2c939eea","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586816980712005","idStr":"3586816980712005"},"htmlText":"Am wondering why Warren Buffet has yet tooffload his Apple. A point to ponder.&nbsp;","listText":"Am wondering why Warren Buffet has yet tooffload his Apple. A point to ponder.&nbsp;","text":"Am wondering why Warren Buffet has yet tooffload his Apple. A point to ponder.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834264708","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5638203,"gmtCreate":1629848483707,"gmtModify":1663232868339,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834264708,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"He did offload a portion earlier this year and he regretted it. But he also is not super well versed in tech. Apple is definitely a stock to hold for long term which match well with Buffet style","text":"He did offload a portion earlier this year and he regretted it. But he also is not super well versed in tech. Apple is definitely a stock to hold for long term which match well with Buffet style","html":"He did offload a portion earlier this year and he regretted it. But he also is not super well versed in tech. Apple is definitely a stock to hold for long term which match well with Buffet style"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834295068,"gmtCreate":1629804678854,"gmtModify":1676530136148,"author":{"id":"3579682959605812","authorId":"3579682959605812","name":"Hoppie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579682959605812","idStr":"3579682959605812"},"htmlText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","text":"[Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834295068","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834674722,"gmtCreate":1629803023066,"gmtModify":1676530135712,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090049677785040","idStr":"4090049677785040"},"htmlText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","listText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834674722","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5832264,"gmtCreate":1631362532617,"gmtModify":1663233729539,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2-1","templateUuid":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2","name":"Monthly Top Contributor","description":"Top 3 Contributors with the most and best Editor's Picks every month","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cad6192443c33dca826a001250fbd4","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccd98c646815ce7610b0df338e060cc","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2003},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.22","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834674722,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Well said??","text":"Well said??","html":"Well said??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834674283,"gmtCreate":1629803003942,"gmtModify":1676530135696,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090049677785040","idStr":"4090049677785040"},"htmlText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","listText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834674283","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834676451,"gmtCreate":1629802674573,"gmtModify":1676530135621,"author":{"id":"3574924778363716","authorId":"3574924778363716","name":"sSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6feafa4a828260badf8636e7a0776299","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574924778363716","idStr":"3574924778363716"},"htmlText":"Like pls thanks comment too","listText":"Like pls thanks comment too","text":"Like pls thanks comment too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834676451","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5634140,"gmtCreate":1629810522534,"gmtModify":1663232850442,"authorId":3582075354763697,"author":{"id":3582075354763697,"idStr":"3582075354763697","authorId":3582075354763697,"name":"Blackbunny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c19a775624a3a537472a142b0aaf453","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834676451,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834653958,"gmtCreate":1629800081474,"gmtModify":1676530135082,"author":{"id":"3583644431775375","authorId":"3583644431775375","name":"kslee9566","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547278d0b48b0d822a0c5c43d2d6c06e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583644431775375","idStr":"3583644431775375"},"htmlText":"Fly","listText":"Fly","text":"Fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834653958","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834849418,"gmtCreate":1629792820434,"gmtModify":1676530132635,"author":{"id":"3582353279827680","authorId":"3582353279827680","name":"Alvinsan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006c81af2016000c087df98332ef2fff","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582353279827680","idStr":"3582353279827680"},"htmlText":"Lmao, overpriced? How about nvidia? That's the one that's overpriced, overvalued.&nbsp;","listText":"Lmao, overpriced? How about nvidia? That's the one that's overpriced, overvalued.&nbsp;","text":"Lmao, overpriced? How about nvidia? That's the one that's overpriced, overvalued.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834849418","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5632356,"gmtCreate":1629799022423,"gmtModify":1663232839326,"authorId":3572988793196593,"author":{"id":3572988793196593,"idStr":"3572988793196593","authorId":3572988793196593,"name":"Foxie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834849418,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thisnis so true. ","text":"Thisnis so true. ","html":"Thisnis so true. "},{"id":5632251,"gmtCreate":1629797996933,"gmtModify":1663232839153,"authorId":3573540190522229,"author":{"id":3573540190522229,"idStr":"3573540190522229","authorId":3573540190522229,"name":"Targarean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59de1c73df3e7e460bd84cc786850fa6","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.11","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834849418,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"There is so much bias in these articles. I’m sure we can dig out a SeekingAlpha article recommending to buy Nvidia ? \n \n Why use 15x PE when other FAANG stocks are double that PE","text":"There is so much bias in these articles. I’m sure we can dig out a SeekingAlpha article recommending to buy Nvidia ? \n \n Why use 15x PE when other FAANG stocks are double that PE","html":"There is so much bias in these articles. I’m sure we can dig out a SeekingAlpha article recommending to buy Nvidia ? \n \n Why use 15x PE when other FAANG stocks are double that PE"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834849566,"gmtCreate":1629792819655,"gmtModify":1676530132644,"author":{"id":"3528737361716173","authorId":"3528737361716173","name":"走在雨中","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3528737361716173","idStr":"3528737361716173"},"htmlText":"年入4000億美元，越是高端，越有人追，越追越高端","listText":"年入4000億美元，越是高端，越有人追，越追越高端","text":"年入4000億美元，越是高端，越有人追，越追越高端","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834849566","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":834826826,"gmtCreate":1629791783565,"gmtModify":1676530132130,"author":{"id":"3575058137963235","authorId":"3575058137963235","name":"stephh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e248aeda9d24c835ab13541550241cf","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575058137963235","idStr":"3575058137963235"},"htmlText":"Appl","listText":"Appl","text":"Appl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834826826","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834884673,"gmtCreate":1629790129792,"gmtModify":1676530131645,"author":{"id":"3579255161436391","authorId":"3579255161436391","name":"Issey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2691050bb98f359e9c4e9abfecff16","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579255161436391","idStr":"3579255161436391"},"htmlText":"I believe if you are a long term investor for Apple then the price of $150 shouldn’t be a factor. DCA always even in ups or downs.&nbsp;Just saying if it gets to&nbsp;$1500 one day then when you look back and realise this $150 wouldn’t have meant much. But that’s my opinion so have a wonderful day everyone! Green green days ahead for all!&nbsp;","listText":"I believe if you are a long term investor for Apple then the price of $150 shouldn’t be a factor. DCA always even in ups or downs.&nbsp;Just saying if it gets to&nbsp;$1500 one day then when you look back and realise this $150 wouldn’t have meant much. But that’s my opinion so have a wonderful day everyone! Green green days ahead for all!&nbsp;","text":"I believe if you are a long term investor for Apple then the price of $150 shouldn’t be a factor. DCA always even in ups or downs. Just saying if it gets to $1500 one day then when you look back and realise this $150 wouldn’t have meant much. But that’s my opinion so have a wonderful day everyone! Green green days ahead for all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834884673","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5632089,"gmtCreate":1629796912427,"gmtModify":1663232839326,"authorId":3578468158955348,"author":{"id":3578468158955348,"idStr":"3578468158955348","authorId":3578468158955348,"name":"Kel9670ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd86c42e207fbd94e7f8877a29457d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3579255161436391,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3579255161436391,"idStr":"3579255161436391","authorId":3579255161436391,"name":"Issey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2691050bb98f359e9c4e9abfecff16","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":834884673,"type":1,"supId":5631250,"prevId":5631762,"content":"TBH apple has been losing market share","text":"TBH apple has been losing market share","html":"TBH apple has been losing market share"},{"id":5631762,"gmtCreate":1629794431841,"gmtModify":1663232838441,"authorId":3579255161436391,"author":{"id":3579255161436391,"idStr":"3579255161436391","authorId":3579255161436391,"name":"Issey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2691050bb98f359e9c4e9abfecff16","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834884673,"type":1,"supId":5631250,"prevId":0,"content":"谢了我也祝你发财！","text":"谢了我也祝你发财！","html":"谢了我也祝你发财！"},{"id":5631247,"gmtCreate":1629790370980,"gmtModify":1663232837238,"authorId":9000000000000159,"author":{"id":9000000000000159,"idStr":"9000000000000159","authorId":9000000000000159,"name":"宝宝金水_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc912a97b9cf4b68e780cc36db9f964","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834884673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"我是苹果 的股东，我希望你的预言完全正确。","text":"我是苹果 的股东，我希望你的预言完全正确。","html":"我是苹果 的股东，我希望你的预言完全正确。"},{"id":5631773,"gmtCreate":1629794476655,"gmtModify":1663232836941,"authorId":3579255161436391,"author":{"id":3579255161436391,"idStr":"3579255161436391","authorId":3579255161436391,"name":"Issey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2691050bb98f359e9c4e9abfecff16","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834884673,"type":1,"supId":5631243,"prevId":0,"content":"哈哈哈哈好！[Happy]","text":"哈哈哈哈好！[Happy]","html":"哈哈哈哈好！[Happy]"},{"id":5631243,"gmtCreate":1629790332846,"gmtModify":1663232835445,"authorId":9000000000000158,"author":{"id":9000000000000158,"idStr":"9000000000000158","authorId":9000000000000158,"name":"哎呀呀小伙子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/124ddb27832ad3a5d8aa835fe6bb7572","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834884673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"如果有一天它达到了1500美元，那么当你回头看时，意识到这150美元并没有多大意义。如果真有那么一天，我请你喝娃哈哈。","text":"如果有一天它达到了1500美元，那么当你回头看时，意识到这150美元并没有多大意义。如果真有那么一天，我请你喝娃哈哈。","html":"如果有一天它达到了1500美元，那么当你回头看时，意识到这150美元并没有多大意义。如果真有那么一天，我请你喝娃哈哈。"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834883704,"gmtCreate":1629789600208,"gmtModify":1676530131515,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bcaa9548fb78e0409a2827c590935dab","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"htmlText":"The support is 146, now moving sideways. In&nbsp;order to sustain at 150. Need strong positive news to break it.&nbsp;","listText":"The support is 146, now moving sideways. In&nbsp;order to sustain at 150. Need strong positive news to break it.&nbsp;","text":"The support is 146, now moving sideways. In order to sustain at 150. Need strong positive news to break it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834883704","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5631531,"gmtCreate":1629792786496,"gmtModify":1663232836428,"authorId":3583109252998837,"author":{"id":3583109252998837,"idStr":"3583109252998837","authorId":3583109252998837,"name":"oddox","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834883704,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"positive news such as Apple electric car? ?","text":"positive news such as Apple electric car? ?","html":"positive news such as Apple electric car? ?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834896138,"gmtCreate":1629787079324,"gmtModify":1676530130815,"author":{"id":"3582151718585472","authorId":"3582151718585472","name":"FrickL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ea265fa5b5f17bb783942b290d93a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582151718585472","idStr":"3582151718585472"},"htmlText":"Like please.&nbsp;","listText":"Like please.&nbsp;","text":"Like please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834896138","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5631108,"gmtCreate":1629788907445,"gmtModify":1663232835344,"authorId":3586596744781365,"author":{"id":3586596744781365,"idStr":"3586596744781365","authorId":3586596744781365,"name":"AliPharma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae50feeb2edce44d991e8e753fb37e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834896138,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5631093,"gmtCreate":1629788841938,"gmtModify":1663232834533,"authorId":3559298661152538,"author":{"id":3559298661152538,"idStr":"3559298661152538","authorId":3559298661152538,"name":"BraydenChin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd2a88b99637dafe5b0bed7c46289a9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834896138,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like pls","text":"like pls","html":"like pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834806663,"gmtCreate":1629786084352,"gmtModify":1676530130566,"author":{"id":"4087452914358580","authorId":"4087452914358580","name":"SanWangtikup","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f061d50a9f915d0ce8e8c879871960","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087452914358580","idStr":"4087452914358580"},"htmlText":"Apple still a leader&nbsp;","listText":"Apple still a leader&nbsp;","text":"Apple still a leader","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834806663","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834159885,"gmtCreate":1629782571447,"gmtModify":1676530129676,"author":{"id":"3586131488444401","authorId":"3586131488444401","name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586131488444401","idStr":"3586131488444401"},"htmlText":"Apple will. Let's see.&nbsp;","listText":"Apple will. Let's see.&nbsp;","text":"Apple will. Let's see.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834159885","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834124250,"gmtCreate":1629782358070,"gmtModify":1676530129618,"author":{"id":"3581586102966898","authorId":"3581586102966898","name":"JinHan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/023377e47661ee615bf8b22d4bd036e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581586102966898","idStr":"3581586102966898"},"htmlText":"These article is mainly around valuation and financial. It is definitely a good analysis and made severalgood points.&nbsp;However, what it failed to address is the new growth revenue such as Apple Car (yes, this is far fetched but in the pipeline) and other new Apple Products.&nbsp;Yes, as a trader, you will buy/ sell frequently and take profits off the table. But as a long term investor, every pullback is a buying opportunity!I am a long term&nbsp;Apple investor and I am not really bothered by the valuation. I buy on every pullback because I believe Apple&nbsp;is here to stay for the next5-30years.&nbsp;","listText":"These article is mainly around valuation and financial. It is definitely a good analysis and made severalgood points.&nbsp;However, what it failed to address is the new growth revenue such as Apple Car (yes, this is far fetched but in the pipeline) and other new Apple Products.&nbsp;Yes, as a trader, you will buy/ sell frequently and take profits off the table. But as a long term investor, every pullback is a buying opportunity!I am a long term&nbsp;Apple investor and I am not really bothered by the valuation. I buy on every pullback because I believe Apple&nbsp;is here to stay for the next5-30years.&nbsp;","text":"These article is mainly around valuation and financial. It is definitely a good analysis and made severalgood points. However, what it failed to address is the new growth revenue such as Apple Car (yes, this is far fetched but in the pipeline) and other new Apple Products. Yes, as a trader, you will buy/ sell frequently and take profits off the table. But as a long term investor, every pullback is a buying opportunity!I am a long term Apple investor and I am not really bothered by the valuation. I buy on every pullback because I believe Apple is here to stay for the next5-30years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834124250","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5654207,"gmtCreate":1629964848891,"gmtModify":1663232934642,"authorId":3573265155926009,"author":{"id":3573265155926009,"idStr":"3573265155926009","authorId":3573265155926009,"name":"LuffyxTarO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4caabbdcce1b2c37cb4cffad9b3c15","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834124250,"type":1,"supId":5652351,"prevId":0,"content":"yea i know, I bought it already ?","text":"yea i know, I bought it already ?","html":"yea i know, I bought it already ?"},{"id":5653014,"gmtCreate":1629952649931,"gmtModify":1663232930551,"authorId":3573124416025977,"author":{"id":3573124416025977,"idStr":"3573124416025977","authorId":3573124416025977,"name":"NEWBIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe20248e6d34805e6c7befc3ae66a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834124250,"type":1,"supId":5652351,"prevId":0,"content":"why wait....","text":"why wait....","html":"why wait...."},{"id":5652351,"gmtCreate":1629947613927,"gmtModify":1663232928029,"authorId":3573265155926009,"author":{"id":3573265155926009,"idStr":"3573265155926009","authorId":3573265155926009,"name":"LuffyxTarO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4caabbdcce1b2c37cb4cffad9b3c15","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834124250,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yo, should i get apple stocks now ? or should i wait ? ","text":"Yo, should i get apple stocks now ? or should i wait ? ","html":"Yo, should i get apple stocks now ? or should i wait ? "},{"id":5652361,"gmtCreate":1629947666875,"gmtModify":1663232927168,"authorId":4093007718746900,"author":{"id":4093007718746900,"idStr":"4093007718746900","authorId":4093007718746900,"name":"YNWA_666","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834124250,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice ?","text":"Nice ?","html":"Nice ?"},{"id":5644287,"gmtCreate":1629887454488,"gmtModify":1663232893441,"authorId":4091925166419540,"author":{"id":4091925166419540,"idStr":"4091925166419540","authorId":4091925166419540,"name":"Jazim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85de7ecb80758afc3288fc8bb7e5ef27","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834124250,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree","text":"Agree","html":"Agree"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834122400,"gmtCreate":1629782191500,"gmtModify":1676530129580,"author":{"id":"3576899111877903","authorId":"3576899111877903","name":"Jack_Chen_qy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7857d3bb380dd24f38771faa0cbd29c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576899111877903","idStr":"3576899111877903"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834122400","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834121430,"gmtCreate":1629781943120,"gmtModify":1676530129513,"author":{"id":"3572775695513464","authorId":"3572775695513464","name":"Sam87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572775695513464","idStr":"3572775695513464"},"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834121430","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5643115,"gmtCreate":1629877540555,"gmtModify":1663232888445,"authorId":3574996021054734,"author":{"id":3574996021054734,"idStr":"3574996021054734","authorId":3574996021054734,"name":"Teslawonder","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834121430,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"170 by new launch series. ?","text":"170 by new launch series. ?","html":"170 by new launch series. ?"},{"id":5630362,"gmtCreate":1629781994662,"gmtModify":1663232833238,"authorId":3572775695513464,"author":{"id":3572775695513464,"idStr":"3572775695513464","authorId":3572775695513464,"name":"Sam87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.24%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834121430,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834123673,"gmtCreate":1629781736992,"gmtModify":1676530129489,"author":{"id":"3584782885850103","authorId":"3584782885850103","name":"CoolFox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ed2b2a4ca54289d3bee0a3310b5704","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584782885850103","idStr":"3584782885850103"},"htmlText":"If you are a any type of trader but investor, you may sell it soon…. As far as i am concerned i am gonna hold them due to the continuous and increasingbusiness value.","listText":"If you are a any type of trader but investor, you may sell it soon…. As far as i am concerned i am gonna hold them due to the continuous and increasingbusiness value.","text":"If you are a any type of trader but investor, you may sell it soon…. As far as i am concerned i am gonna hold them due to the continuous and increasingbusiness value.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834123673","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5631028,"gmtCreate":1629788064053,"gmtModify":1663232836052,"authorId":3567027336968594,"author":{"id":3567027336968594,"idStr":"3567027336968594","authorId":3567027336968594,"name":"大白兔女生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9164215640a1bec6913d46610a230edf","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.26","exceedPercentage":"93.37%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834123673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Looking at the chart, its share price may hit one more high before retracement. But as you mentioned, a value investor like you will continue to hold regardless of short-term price movement.","text":"Looking at the chart, its share price may hit one more high before retracement. But as you mentioned, a value investor like you will continue to hold regardless of short-term price movement.","html":"Looking at the chart, its share price may hit one more high before retracement. But as you mentioned, a value investor like you will continue to hold regardless of short-term price movement."},{"id":5630344,"gmtCreate":1629781816657,"gmtModify":1663232833635,"authorId":3581583688503326,"author":{"id":3581583688503326,"idStr":"3581583688503326","authorId":3581583688503326,"name":"Jazzc85","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4945b6e44a944760efcbe15223e98d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834123673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[OK]","text":"[OK]","html":"[OK]"},{"id":5630615,"gmtCreate":1629783958755,"gmtModify":1663232832540,"authorId":3580120666305176,"author":{"id":3580120666305176,"idStr":"3580120666305176","authorId":3580120666305176,"name":"JAMKKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.26","exceedPercentage":"60.29%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834123673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":319,"commentSize":63,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}