ARKK: Buy On Weakness Before It Leaves Without You

seekingalpha2021-06-23

Summary ARK Innovation ETF lost almost 40% from its Feb high to the depths in May as it also experienced its worst fund outflows in over a year. While fear took over many of ARKK’s investors, long-...

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Comment（134）

Rozilla
·2021-07-02
Oh
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1
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Sookkim
·2021-06-30
[Strong]
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2
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timtamtom
·2021-06-29
Nice sharing
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MCCHONG
·2021-06-29
Upupup
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1
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AhHuat
·2021-06-29
What about arkx?
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1
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STTAN
·2021-06-29
Ok
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1
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LimTY88
·2021-06-28
Arkk should be good but someone just sold tesla
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KC123
·2021-06-28
Buy buy
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CL777
·2021-06-27
Go Cathie!!!
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5
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- CL777:
  [Miser]
  2021-06-28
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- Acella:
  ?
  2021-06-27
  Reply
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STTAN
·2021-06-26
Good
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1
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wk88
·2021-06-26
Ack arkk
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RainaEWQ
·2021-06-26
?
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EDWINHLC
·2021-06-26
Read
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2
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Limok
·2021-06-26
?
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Meshaarias72
·2021-06-25
Like n comment pls
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Valluru
·2021-06-25
Good
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- Meshaarias72:
  Y
  2021-06-25
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Alex_1688
·2021-06-25
Cathy still the best fund manager out there. Recovered and shooting for the moon!
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4
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KLCC
·2021-06-25
Has ARK still hv legs in the short term or is this a really long term play?
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J0E
·2021-06-25
Please like and comment, thanks!
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StreetMoon
·2021-06-25
The stocks they invest is good during pandemic-19, but all industry mostly back to normal.Let’s see how good are they in prediction .
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We present our case on whether ARK has lost its “mojo” as it underperformed the broader index ETFs this year, or whether its highest conviction companies remain at the forefront of benefiting from rapid growth drivers ahead.\nARKK's Highest Conviction Holdings\n\nARKK Top Holdings. Data source: Koyfin\nARKK lost about 40% during the recent growth stocks rotation that spooked investors in the companies that formed the top ten largest holdings in ARKK, that collectively accounted for more than 50% of the ETF’s holdings. Although the ETF has recovered somewhat from its lows, it remained 26% away from its Feb high. The rotation has also claimed many of its top holdings as they remained some distance below their respective recent highs: Tesla (TSLA): 32%, Teladoc (TDOC): 50%, Roku, Inc (ROKU): 25%, Shopify (SHOP): 2%, Square (SQ): 17%, Zoom (ZM): 37%, Twilio (TWLO): 20%, Spotify (SPOT): 36%, Unity (U): 40% and Coinbase (COIN): 47%.\nARKK Fund Flows (1Y period). Source: etfdb\nAs a result, investors exited the ETF in droves as the fund suffered its worst outflows over the last one year from Mar to May (with a respite in Apr). Our opinion is astute investors took the chance to sell ARKK into strength in Feb as many late buyers to the market couldn’t wait to chase growth stocks to the sky, that also dragged down many fearful investors over these two months.\nWe believe no discussion of ARKK is ever complete without focusing on the fundamentals and growth drivers of the ETF’s highest conviction holdings that we summarise below. We believe the secular growth drivers supporting ARKK’s highest conviction holdings have not changed, while their valuations have gotten a lot more attractive.\nTesla: ARK Estimates There is a 50% Chance that TSLA Would Achieve Fully Autonomous Driving by 2025\n\nEstimated U.S. market share of automakers. Data source: GoodCarBadCar.net\nEstimated plug-in EV sales worldwide. Data source: CleanTechnica; EV-Volumes.com\nInvestors need no further introduction to TSLA. What’s more important is that while TSLA represented only 2% of the automakers' market share in the U.S., it’s the worldwide leader in EV sales by a fairly large margin. It goes to show the tremendous amount of opportunity for TSLA to capture in the years ahead as the industry’s EV leader.\n\nL4/5 autonomous vehicles market share. Data source: Deloitte\nTSLA investors know that the company’s lead would hardly be confined to just EV, as that’s just the tip of the iceberg. What makes TSLA such a high conviction pick for ARK is how its lead in EV and full self-driving [FSD] development would open up huge potential opportunities for the company. ARK emphasized:\n\n In our last valuation model, ARK assumed that Tesla had a 30% chance of delivering fully autonomous driving in the five years ended 2024. Now,ARK estimates that the probability is 50% by 2025. Since our last forecast, neural networks have solved many complex problems previously considered unsolvable, increasing the probability that robotaxis are viable. ARK estimates that Tesla’s vehicle fleet gives it access to 30-40 million miles of data per day, up from 20 million per day last year. If successful, Tesla could scale its robotaxi service rapidly, allocating the additional cash in turn to manufacturing capacity serving its autonomous network.\n\nThe chart above also gives investors an idea on how Tesla’s lead may transform the entire auto industry by 2035 where in the “disruptive” scenario 59% and 66% of vehicles would be Level 4 or 5 autonomous vehicles, giving the market leader an enormous share of the market, just in auto sales alone. We have not even accounted for revenue streams that could come from other areas such as robotaxi service as highlighted by ARK.\nOf course, not everyone agrees with Tesla’s approach, especially Waymo (unsurprisingly), as well asGuidehouse Insightswho ranked Tesla last again and Waymo first in its latest guide on autonomous driving. Guidehouse said:\n\n “Tesla needs a thorough rethink of its approach to developing its automated driving system [ADS]. It has overpromised with its marketing for nearly 5 years and severely undelivered. Until Tesla is more honest it is unlikely to improve in the rankings of this leaderboard.\"\n\nIn addition, Waymo who had long doubted Tesla’s approach to FSD also weighed in again early this year as CEO John Krafcik emphasized:\n\n For us,Tesla is not a competitor at all. We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system. It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system. In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers.\n\nFor investors, the jury is definitely still out on whether Tesla would be able to succeed, although ARK has long rested its case on TSLA as its highest conviction holding. Investors are encouraged to visitARK’s assumptionswhich detail their assumptions on their bullish stance.\nTDOC: Telemedicine Market is Expected to Grow at More Than 20% CAGR over the Next 10 Years\nProjected Global Telemedicine market. Data Source: thebusinessresearchcompany.com (TBRC)\nFrom the chart above we could clearly see that TDOC operates within arapidly growing telemedicine market, that is expected to grow from just $49.9B in 2019 to $459.8B by 2030 in 11 years, which would represent an incredible 25.9% CAGR.\nTelemedicine’s growth had started well before COVID-19 pandemic hit that was then accelerated by the pandemic. However, investors who do not understand TDOC’s growth drivers often lamented that the company’s growth and raison d'être would fizzle out once vaccinations and economies’ reopenings took over. We believe these investors were truly mistaken as TDOC is still expected to generate YoY revenue growth rates in excess of 25% moving forward, that for the emerging leader in telemedicine may even have been on the conservative side as it’s “merely” largely in line with the market’s expected CAGR. Therefore, TDOC’s growth prospects look extremely exciting.\nInvest in ARKK or Invest in its Highest Conviction Companies?\n\nTSLA and TDOC EV / Fwd EBIT. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nTSLA and TDOC EV / Fwd (EBITDA - CapEx). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nGrowth investors often find themselves undecided on whether to invest in the underlying stocks directly or invest through ARKK. While we don’t think there is a simple answer to this, investors should consider the key benefits of investing in ARKK as compared to investing directly in the underlying stocks.\nWhile companies such as TSLA and TDOC have massive potential as we could see from both the charts above where their valuations are expected to drop significantly as they continued to scale up and achieve their growth targets (assuming EV remains the same though it’s unrealistic if the companies continue to execute their growth strategies well). However, the fact of the matter remains that their valuations are not cheap whether basing off EBIT or FCF (using EBITDA - CapEx as a proxy) as shown clearly above.\nTherefore, by investing in ARKK you put your money in a widely diversified ETF that’s focused on disruptive companies that are expected to be the leader in the future, although some may not end up to be. Therefore, by investing in ARKK, investors could simply dedicate a disciplined proportion of their portfolio that they are willing to allocate to such disruptive stocks, without the need to fill up their portfolio with lots of them, and taking more risks than what may be appropriate. In addition, as such companies are usually emerging leaders in their respective fields, investors would need to do a lot of groundwork to keep pace with their investments in order to continue evaluating the quality of their thesis moving forward. However, ARK does all the heavy lifting for investors as ARK would actively manage those holdings and would reduce or add exposures to its stocks whenever necessary.\nTherefore, we gladly hold ARKK along with some of the underlying stocks within the ETF in order to benefit from a wide range of disruptive companies that we do not intend to hold as our underlying holdings but wish to gain an exposure to, while holding on to some of ARK's highest conviction picks as our core holdings.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nARKK has a strong uptrend bias that has been supported along the 20W moving average until it was lost during the rotation we saw between Feb and May. However, it seems like most of the inventory has already been unloaded by the weak holders as $105 looks like a strong support level that has held up well, that also coincided with the 50W moving average. We think that long term investors should not find the current price expensive even though ARKK has recovered somewhat from its May lows. The long term growth drivers remain highly attractive for its underlying stocks and investors should take advantage of the price weakness to initiate or add to ARK’s flagship ETF.\nWrapping It All Up\nARKK represents a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to companies that are expected to grow rapidly and establish themselves as the undisputed leaders in their respective industries.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":158444324,"gmtCreate":1625179487368,"gmtModify":1703737628356,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584845497808923"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158444324","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":153181680,"gmtCreate":1625013557340,"gmtModify":1703850038881,"author":{"id":"3583816541674672","authorId":"3583816541674672","authorIdStr":"3583816541674672","name":"Sookkim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f83338dfe432ac57a20233cfd6a0c51","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583816541674672"},"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153181680","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":159371634,"gmtCreate":1624944505828,"gmtModify":1703848556120,"author":{"id":"3578209189176690","authorId":"3578209189176690","authorIdStr":"3578209189176690","name":"timtamtom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578209189176690"},"htmlText":"Nice sharing","listText":"Nice sharing","text":"Nice sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159371634","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":159934080,"gmtCreate":1624935032240,"gmtModify":1703848322096,"author":{"id":"3574762440004777","authorId":"3574762440004777","authorIdStr":"3574762440004777","name":"MCCHONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574762440004777"},"htmlText":"Upupup","listText":"Upupup","text":"Upupup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159934080","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150248700,"gmtCreate":1624918122500,"gmtModify":1703847690344,"author":{"id":"3555068094122593","authorId":"3555068094122593","authorIdStr":"3555068094122593","name":"AhHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff680b52232dc944e11f878442619233","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555068094122593"},"htmlText":"What about arkx?","listText":"What about arkx?","text":"What about arkx?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150248700","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150258006,"gmtCreate":1624917122405,"gmtModify":1703847674061,"author":{"id":"3582714247972419","authorId":"3582714247972419","authorIdStr":"3582714247972419","name":"STTAN","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582714247972419"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150258006","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127730248,"gmtCreate":1624868248984,"gmtModify":1703846592743,"author":{"id":"3586311063555410","authorId":"3586311063555410","authorIdStr":"3586311063555410","name":"LimTY88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079833662464a690396c44fc0ef6ffea","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586311063555410"},"htmlText":"Arkk should be good but someone just sold tesla","listText":"Arkk should be good but someone just sold tesla","text":"Arkk should be good but someone just sold tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127730248","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127693182,"gmtCreate":1624845176946,"gmtModify":1703846000924,"author":{"id":"3566979950306697","authorId":"3566979950306697","authorIdStr":"3566979950306697","name":"KC123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566979950306697"},"htmlText":"Buy buy","listText":"Buy buy","text":"Buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127693182","repostId":1104807513,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":124118864,"gmtCreate":1624753004958,"gmtModify":1703844350796,"author":{"id":"3560241002253187","authorId":"3560241002253187","authorIdStr":"3560241002253187","name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560241002253187"},"htmlText":"Go Cathie!!!","listText":"Go Cathie!!!","text":"Go 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