China’s massive stimulus hasn’t revived its economy but its stock markets have been kicked higher. Investors now have to navigate economic uncertainty and the challenges of U.S. policies with Donald Trump as president.
Retail investors in China shied away from stocks as markets dropped in 2022 and 2023, but they’ve been roused awake this year by Beijing’s efforts to bolster the economy.
In early October, the Shanghai Composite Index hit its highest level since February 2022 and is now up 11% for this year, while the CSI 300 Index, which represents the largest Chinese companies, is 14% higher.
That’s probably thanks to retail investors. China’s stock market is unique in that it is dominated by its 200 million retail investors, who have been heading back to equity markets given the dearth of attractive investment opportunities amid falling interest rates.
Chinese households have been hoarding cash since the pandemic. Lockdowns dented the world’s second-largest economy and hammered consumer confidence, lifting savings even after Covid-related restrictions were eased.
Households deposited an extra $6.2 trillion during the pandemic as they saved more and shied away from equities and property investments, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Central bank data showed that helped grow bank deposits to $20 trillion by September—almost double the capitalization of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.
But the tide could be turning.
Mainland Chinese investors opened 6.85 million brokerage accounts last month, a threefold increase from September, China’s central bank data show. At the same time, household deposits fell by nearly $79 billion, prompting analysts to say some of those deposits could have moved to the stock market.
“It is not clear how much of these deposits will flow into equities or the real economy, but the potential for it is substantial,” said Herald van der Linde, head of equity strategy, Asia Pacific, at HSBC, adding that the scale of household deposits relative to that of the onshore stock market was “unheard of.”
With this pile of cash, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Haitong International estimate that Chinese households could pour as much as 10 trillion yuan, equivalent to $1.38 trillion, into local stocks over time and become a major market driver if China’s stimulus policies keep economic momentum going and restore investor confidence.
Daily trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges touched a record $277.36 billion in October, data from Wind Information show, as the markets recouped 2022 and 2023’s losses.
Stocks have cooled in the last two weeks in the wake of Trump’s election victory and disappointment that big-bang stimulus hasn’t been announced by Chinese authorities.
Mainland investors may sit on their savings as they watch to see if China can lift its economy from deflation and deal with the tariffs that Trump has threatened.
The U.S. president-elect dampened the market’s mood with a vow this week that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
“Chinese equity markets seemed to mostly shrug off the initial threats,” said ING Greater China Chief Economist Lynn Song. He added that many investors had priced in Trump’s earlier threats of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and his latest 10% vow “may have come as a relief.”
Investors are now looking for details of Beijing’s fiscal stimulus package, with the government’s Economic Work Conference in December as the next opportunity for fresh policy announcements.
“Further upside surprises could certainly fuel more inflows into the onshore market,” Song said.