Clubhouse能否复制？“中国学徒”们谁能先成功

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Clubhouse能否复制？“中国学徒”们谁能先成功

蓝洞商业2021-03-03

文/赵卫卫相比于美国Clubhouse被赞美为“一个更具思想性和更少受愤怒驱动的社交网络”，Clubhouse的中国学徒们更像一个个温热的炕头，等待前来唠嗑的老乡们。“‘对话吧’大概会在3月20日重新上架。”深夜的“对话吧”里，有人给出了自己的判断。他没有说出理由，故意卖了一个关子，但很快就有人猜出答案：3.15国际消费者权益日，是一个令各方企业都忌惮的敏感时期。过了这个敏感期，才会有更进一步的...

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WayneChen
·2021-03-03
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飘缈
·2021-03-03
這???
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JackyLove
·2021-03-03
還
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- JackyLove:
  好
  2021-03-03
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- Icekk:
  欸.....
  2021-03-03
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Cofffe依然没有通过IOS审核，是一个未受信任的企业级开发者产品；新米聊也在内测，距离它上一次“死亡”仅仅一周，能否借着Clubhouse的形式“还魂”，仍是一个未知数。在差异化的竞争还未显露之前，同质化的产品模仿是Clubhouse中国学徒们的常态。相比于美国Clubhouse被赞美为“一个更具思想性和更少受愤怒驱动的社交网络”，Clubhouse的中国学徒们更像一个个温热的炕头，等待前来唠嗑的老乡们。炕头上，聊的是家长里短，关心粮食和蔬菜，都是熟络的人；而在“对话吧”等产品里，你与蒙面的陌生人畅聊比特币、盈利模式、运营技巧，话题千奇百怪，行业兴趣人人不一，相同的却是，几乎每个人的用户简介里，都备注了自己的微信ID。即便你可以在聊天的房间里关注对方，但“加个微信”是房间里出现的高频词汇，毕竟纯语音还是限制了用户之间沟通表达场景。在显著的商业盈利模式未被实现之前，发展私域流量，成为“炕头乐”们的最显著特征。谁会跑出来？连续三个晚上，从10点到凌晨1点，夏宏文都在主持“对话吧”的一个房间。他从事TMT领域投后管理咨询服务，对脉脉和Linkedin颇为熟络，工作内容就是“找人找钱找方向”。主持人是房间的话题制定者和主持者，夏宏文要负责维护这个房间的发言秩序。房间人数最高时达到数十人，讨论的话题包括在线教育、企业服务等等，这一晚，房间的名字叫“创投夜话：CH中国版的盈利模式”。“奉总来了”，夏宏文注意到映客创始人奉佑生进了房间，虽然他们并不认识，而且奉佑生也没有发言。房间里的话题依然热烈，从CH中国版是否适合招聘这个应用场景，到音频内容的监管政策方法，房间里的话题不断跳转，夏宏文在中间穿针引线，他认为“对话吧”作为CH的中国版取得了先发优势，但现阶段定义它为时尚早，后面“高速高质量的增长才更为重要”。夏宏文把“对话吧”定义为一个“超级流量入口”，刷到金沙江创投董事总经理朱啸虎朋友圈里的邀请海报之后，他开始玩起了“对话吧”。几天之后，他在“对话吧”里有400多粉丝，通过了几十个人微信的申请。在“对话吧”首次大咖对话中，朱啸虎、昆仑万维CEO周亚辉、华兴资本董事总经理杜永波、复旦大学副教授蒋昌建上线交流“在中国能做成一个Clubhouse吗？”，吸引了1800多人线上围观。夏宏文提问，“对话吧”的粉丝和抖音的粉丝有什么区别？朱啸虎的回答大概是，相比于抖音中心化的流量分发机制，“对话吧”更像是私域流量，粉丝和KOL之间的链接更强。而另外一点则是，“群体之间的交互更多，内容不随着话题延伸裂变，这是一种网状结构的群体智慧，而不是KOL单一输出。”夏宏文对主持“对话吧”房间的热衷，与映客官方没有关系。在他看来，CH的中国版吸引了众多创业者和投资人加入其中，这种群聊激发了更多想法和感受，也弥补了认知上的欠缺。半夜一点，奉佑生早已经不在房间里，“对话吧”里的气氛开始冷淡，在这个陌生人围观的线上，有人谈到，“对话吧”代表着映客的某种焦虑，“映客还没有现象级的产品”，但这个话题也点到为止。言外之意谁都清楚，映客作为曾经的“直播第一股”，如今业务单一，已经被抖音、快手远远甩在身后。即便映客豪言要拿出40亿打造CH中国版，社交产品的竞争残酷性和难度也非一日之功。预测Clubhouse中国学徒们的竞争趋势，依然是一件困难的事情。现在，被下架之后的“对话吧”依然在悄悄更新版本，它的新功能包括用户可以提前预约感兴趣的话题房间等等，但这依然是在模仿Clubhouse。“就像梅花创投吴世春说，不到100万用户，谁也别谈先发优势。”夏宏文说，Clubhouse中国学徒们还处在同一个起跑线，未来大概率是会跑出几家，“那一定是产品和运营能力强的公司，比如头条”。负累与未知就像Clubhouse的中国学徒们必将面临腾讯或是字节跳动系的竞争，在美国，Clubhouse也面临着Facebook、Twitter的竞争。Twitter已经开始了群组音频聊天功能Spaces的内测，Facebook也开始开发类似Clubhouse的产品。Clubhouse仍旧在着力挖掘内容优势提高社区的丰富程度，其已经开始试验通过打赏、票务和订阅来为平台上的创作者提供资助。就像朱啸虎提到，音频社交产品的根基是内容质量，“驱动机制上，光靠兴趣是没有用的，必须给予用户赚钱的机会。”但伴随用户病毒式激增，危险也更加显而易见。在美国，Clubhouse遭遇的问题是安全漏洞。Clubhouse负责的是用户体验，而后端的业务支持依赖于中国上海的服务商声网Agora。在2021年2月中旬，已经有黑客通过系统程序，把多个房间内的私人聊天内容传输到第三方网站上，这与平台上聊完即走、没有音频文字存档的设计背道而驰。某种程度上，Clubhouse迅速蹿红成长，也正因为其处在内容监管的缝隙中，当Facebook、Twitter等主流社交平台早已开始加大内容审核力度，Clubhouse未来同样会受到越来越多的监管压力。这个道理，同样适用于中国的Clubhouse学徒们，在商业模式、用户增长、社区内容等等问题之前，平台责任和监管政策是首要面临的问题。相比视频直播一对多的审核方式，Clubhouse的多对多、纯语音信息的方式，无疑增大了内容审核的成本压力。目前商汤等人工智能公司提供的语音内容审核检测精度大于90%，即便如此，人工审核语音信息也是中国Clubhouse学徒们的压力所在。而对于用户来说，毫无疑问，Clubhouse激发了人们的表达欲，它为志同道合的一批人提供了聚集方式，其中蕴含着无限的可能性。乐观者们期待它，有望成为Facebook，Instagram，Twitter，LinkedIn和YouTube之后的“第六网络”。一些借助Clubhouse发展私域流量的个体已经显现光芒。比如在遥远的岛国毛里求斯，一个叫曼苏（Axel Mansoor)的28岁歌手，他在房间内唱歌，在不同的房间内穿梭，分享自己在中国、印度和奥地利等地巡演和旅行的故事，他已经发展了8万多粉丝。即便Clubhouse的邀请制让很多人无法参与其中，延迟效果也不能音乐合奏成为可能。但曼苏说，“Clubhouse传达了我的本质。”这一切，显然都是规模化效应之后才出现的结果。对于中国Clubhouse学徒来说，他们能否孕育更多的可能性，显然还是未知数，这取决于它们的“炕头”能否维持住一个安全的温度。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":365785447,"gmtCreate":1614780718189,"gmtModify":1704775132552,"author":{"id":"3571475644592975","authorId":"3571475644592975","name":"WayneChen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7cd2f6ecae1b9fbc95cccf81678714b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571475644592975","authorIdStr":"3571475644592975"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365785447","repostId":1108527325,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":365453812,"gmtCreate":1614773847536,"gmtModify":1704775034258,"author":{"id":"3574114505402903","authorId":"3574114505402903","name":"飘缈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a96a8ba6ec71e16b8c526155cb10a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574114505402903","authorIdStr":"3574114505402903"},"htmlText":"這???","listText":"這???","text":"這???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365453812","repostId":1108527325,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":365420944,"gmtCreate":1614772507488,"gmtModify":1704775017925,"author":{"id":"3576391338782613","authorId":"3576391338782613","name":"JackyLove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca9a8a9b23114d17a2580e761155d47","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576391338782613","authorIdStr":"3576391338782613"},"htmlText":"還","listText":"還","text":"還","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365420944","repostId":1108527325,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3705335,"gmtCreate":1614772517827,"gmtModify":1680779000211,"authorId":3576391338782613,"author":{"id":3576391338782613,"idStr":"3576391338782613","authorId":3576391338782613,"name":"JackyLove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca9a8a9b23114d17a2580e761155d47","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":365420944,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"},{"id":3705599,"gmtCreate":1614775132448,"gmtModify":1680778994975,"authorId":3577520251488200,"author":{"id":3577520251488200,"idStr":"3577520251488200","authorId":3577520251488200,"name":"Icekk","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17da0ddb309c492f3f7a1ad12e4d09aa","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real 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