Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation

641
90
Favorite

Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation

zerohedge2021-07-20

In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

641

Report

Comment（90）

EZU
·2021-07-21
Wow
Reply
1
Report
Lamborghini1
·2021-07-21
Ok
Reply
2
Report
1nu
·2021-07-21
Help me like and comment:)
Reply
5
Report
Fold Replies
- Derrickmin:
  Done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- Derrickmin:
  Done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- KlWong:
  Done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
claratan
·2021-07-21
Wow ??
Reply
2
Report
Nebhol
·2021-07-21
Like comment please
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- Holidaymood:
  Done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- 月亮湾湾照狮城:
  [微笑] [微笑]
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
Ei_888
·2021-07-21
Like
Reply
8
Report
Fold Replies
- newbee111:
  ok
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- claratan:
  done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
SteveGoh
·2021-07-21
Like and comment
Reply
6
Report
Fold Replies
- TJW1991:
  o
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- Ei_888:
  like
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
Jkan
·2021-07-21
Transitory virus and inflation
Reply
6
Report
AOT_CPT_SAWI
·2021-07-21
Again?
Reply
4
Report
Tqt213
·2021-07-21
Nice
Reply
5
Report
cactuspot
·2021-07-21
One like, please.
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- HelenJanet:
  Like
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- HansJ:
  Done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
eo1668
·2021-07-21
like & comment pls
Reply
6
Report
Fold Replies
- taykaiz:
  Done. Reply pls
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- cactuspot:
  done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
Torrieslim
·2021-07-21
nice
Reply
2
Report
Bull_Horn
·2021-07-21
Great news
Reply
3
Report
AngelaChan
·2021-07-21
Interesting ?
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- AngelaChan:
  what to do next?
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
civilmoisseu
·2021-07-21
Always becareful
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- edamame:
  yes
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
sheenayam
·2021-07-21
Please like and comment
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- WeiChyi:
  K
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
PYEO
·2021-07-21
Please like, thank you.
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- PYEO:
  Thank you, have a good day!
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- JQ62:
  done
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- STB:
  ok
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
Lilian Lim
·2021-07-21
Liked
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- firefirefire:
  like
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- Huat899:
  Pls like and comment, thanks
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
Siak
·2021-07-21
Please like
Reply
8
Report
Fold Replies
- Huat899:
  Pls like and comment, thanks
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report
- Cyberboyz:
  Ok
  2021-07-21
  Reply
  Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1109861258","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","media":"zerohedge","content":"<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","article_id":"1109861258","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"收益率暴跌的背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的重新思考","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":178536939,"gmtCreate":1626826828721,"gmtModify":1703765857925,"author":{"id":"3583724107037402","authorId":"3583724107037402","name":"EZU","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583724107037402","idStr":"3583724107037402"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178536939","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178243765,"gmtCreate":1626825306757,"gmtModify":1703765799468,"author":{"id":"3578903100181699","authorId":"3578903100181699","name":"Lamborghini1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b24a649554234324e1e33be42fc25f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578903100181699","idStr":"3578903100181699"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178243765","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178269870,"gmtCreate":1626823991890,"gmtModify":1703765756153,"author":{"id":"3577610430427001","authorId":"3577610430427001","name":"1nu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15789a74f3eb14371af59c44a8f71041","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577610430427001","idStr":"3577610430427001"},"htmlText":"Help me like and comment:)","listText":"Help me like and comment:)","text":"Help me like and comment:)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178269870","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5277074,"gmtCreate":1626824393527,"gmtModify":1663231238452,"authorId":3580768650075144,"author":{"id":3580768650075144,"idStr":"3580768650075144","authorId":3580768650075144,"name":"Derrickmin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb88321eb16bafea5d8794f4409690e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178269870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5277082,"gmtCreate":1626824423903,"gmtModify":1663231238327,"authorId":3580768650075144,"author":{"id":3580768650075144,"idStr":"3580768650075144","authorId":3580768650075144,"name":"Derrickmin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb88321eb16bafea5d8794f4409690e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178269870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5277004,"gmtCreate":1626824055295,"gmtModify":1663231235942,"authorId":3585862393512500,"author":{"id":3585862393512500,"idStr":"3585862393512500","authorId":3585862393512500,"name":"KlWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b20610400ddcc33719ca6767c3e3fbde","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178269870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178260019,"gmtCreate":1626823939331,"gmtModify":1703765754047,"author":{"id":"3573731928321338","authorId":"3573731928321338","name":"claratan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6bbdac9048ff2e4b740f272576e2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573731928321338","idStr":"3573731928321338"},"htmlText":"Wow ??","listText":"Wow ??","text":"Wow ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178260019","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178215255,"gmtCreate":1626823411177,"gmtModify":1703765735880,"author":{"id":"3567411499210880","authorId":"3567411499210880","name":"Nebhol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0bfc2a45b91e41a283614268857b3a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567411499210880","idStr":"3567411499210880"},"htmlText":"Like comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178215255","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276877,"gmtCreate":1626823528470,"gmtModify":1663231236046,"authorId":3577917989847586,"author":{"id":3577917989847586,"idStr":"3577917989847586","authorId":3577917989847586,"name":"Holidaymood","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2f7be8cd64ecb0e1182c0d9afae636f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178215255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5276878,"gmtCreate":1626823529389,"gmtModify":1663231235062,"authorId":3585015704454479,"author":{"id":3585015704454479,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorId":3585015704454479,"name":"月亮湾湾照狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65141f7fef1fccd27684150e1416319","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178215255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑] [微笑]","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","html":"[微笑] [微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178210059,"gmtCreate":1626823148971,"gmtModify":1703765724644,"author":{"id":"3585533261543358","authorId":"3585533261543358","name":"Ei_888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117fa34406876f996514937472ec57e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585533261543358","idStr":"3585533261543358"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178210059","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276985,"gmtCreate":1626823974206,"gmtModify":1663231232748,"authorId":3573939677876063,"author":{"id":3573939677876063,"idStr":"3573939677876063","authorId":3573939677876063,"name":"newbee111","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178210059,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"},{"id":5276988,"gmtCreate":1626823984159,"gmtModify":1663231232343,"authorId":3573731928321338,"author":{"id":3573731928321338,"idStr":"3573731928321338","authorId":3573731928321338,"name":"claratan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6bbdac9048ff2e4b740f272576e2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178210059,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178237951,"gmtCreate":1626823113073,"gmtModify":1703765723673,"author":{"id":"3580932551134778","authorId":"3580932551134778","name":"SteveGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11095a7766734a010cae2953dbc20e3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3580932551134778","idStr":"3580932551134778"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178237951","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276890,"gmtCreate":1626823568799,"gmtModify":1663231237332,"authorId":3578904826776116,"author":{"id":3578904826776116,"idStr":"3578904826776116","authorId":3578904826776116,"name":"TJW1991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d13fbb3feb6459408472fb351d6fe0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178237951,"type":1,"supId":5276764,"prevId":0,"content":"o","text":"o","html":"o"},{"id":5276764,"gmtCreate":1626823141332,"gmtModify":1663231236341,"authorId":3585533261543358,"author":{"id":3585533261543358,"idStr":"3585533261543358","authorId":3585533261543358,"name":"Ei_888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117fa34406876f996514937472ec57e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178237951,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>like</u>","text":"<u>like</u>","html":"<u>like</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178235014,"gmtCreate":1626823061538,"gmtModify":1703765720420,"author":{"id":"3574381604982902","authorId":"3574381604982902","name":"Jkan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5803c697580c21a815764131d05679","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574381604982902","idStr":"3574381604982902"},"htmlText":"Transitory virus and inflation","listText":"Transitory virus and inflation","text":"Transitory virus and inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178235014","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178231731,"gmtCreate":1626822969323,"gmtModify":1703765715671,"author":{"id":"3558916124332072","authorId":"3558916124332072","name":"AOT_CPT_SAWI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e0f3a489595b07fb9fae8e74a225a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558916124332072","idStr":"3558916124332072"},"htmlText":"Again?","listText":"Again?","text":"Again?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178231731","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178292541,"gmtCreate":1626822728283,"gmtModify":1703765707564,"author":{"id":"3581721392237078","authorId":"3581721392237078","name":"Tqt213","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581721392237078","idStr":"3581721392237078"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178292541","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178205137,"gmtCreate":1626822224229,"gmtModify":1703765692227,"author":{"id":"3581837078692589","authorId":"3581837078692589","name":"cactuspot","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3a8704d6c2ece9fce2b814d8c533a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581837078692589","idStr":"3581837078692589"},"htmlText":"One like, please.","listText":"One like, please.","text":"One like, please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178205137","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276550,"gmtCreate":1626822337784,"gmtModify":1663231235440,"authorId":3581735774790928,"author":{"id":3581735774790928,"idStr":"3581735774790928","authorId":3581735774790928,"name":"HelenJanet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1730eb70f7129a82541df3a6f640a671","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178205137,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":5276536,"gmtCreate":1626822263525,"gmtModify":1663231235146,"authorId":3586333809132884,"author":{"id":3586333809132884,"idStr":"3586333809132884","authorId":3586333809132884,"name":"HansJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177539fe5e5e15e5c45e8f8b5b61e773","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178205137,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178202740,"gmtCreate":1626822209980,"gmtModify":1703765691739,"author":{"id":"3560376076037644","authorId":"3560376076037644","name":"eo1668","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/039a625a00fac8daa05bb87ff64ecd3c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560376076037644","idStr":"3560376076037644"},"htmlText":"like &amp; comment pls","listText":"like &amp; comment pls","text":"like & comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178202740","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276676,"gmtCreate":1626822910915,"gmtModify":1663231235440,"authorId":3581501226736554,"author":{"id":3581501226736554,"idStr":"3581501226736554","authorId":3581501226736554,"name":"taykaiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98fe0d50331ab2a61b83d50adb45fd5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178202740,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done. Reply pls","text":"Done. Reply pls","html":"Done. Reply pls"},{"id":5276529,"gmtCreate":1626822239767,"gmtModify":1663231235063,"authorId":3581837078692589,"author":{"id":3581837078692589,"idStr":"3581837078692589","authorId":3581837078692589,"name":"cactuspot","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3a8704d6c2ece9fce2b814d8c533a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.77%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178202740,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178206819,"gmtCreate":1626822105531,"gmtModify":1703765689620,"author":{"id":"3579772736052887","authorId":"3579772736052887","name":"Torrieslim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc8e08fa5d20245a3e4bc7629180ac0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579772736052887","idStr":"3579772736052887"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178206819","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178208515,"gmtCreate":1626822070637,"gmtModify":1703765688968,"author":{"id":"4089002214432400","authorId":"4089002214432400","name":"Bull_Horn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089002214432400","idStr":"4089002214432400"},"htmlText":"Great news&nbsp;","listText":"Great news&nbsp;","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178208515","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178208837,"gmtCreate":1626822063229,"gmtModify":1703765688806,"author":{"id":"3581927959461394","authorId":"3581927959461394","name":"AngelaChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cd9fc4748e9cc19bd2df211f8ced9c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581927959461394","idStr":"3581927959461394"},"htmlText":"Interesting ?","listText":"Interesting ?","text":"Interesting ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178208837","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276494,"gmtCreate":1626822074867,"gmtModify":1663231235065,"authorId":3581927959461394,"author":{"id":3581927959461394,"idStr":"3581927959461394","authorId":3581927959461394,"name":"AngelaChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cd9fc4748e9cc19bd2df211f8ced9c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178208837,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"what to do next?","text":"what to do next?","html":"what to do next?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178201108,"gmtCreate":1626822002104,"gmtModify":1703765687828,"author":{"id":"4087735328781770","authorId":"4087735328781770","name":"civilmoisseu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087735328781770","idStr":"4087735328781770"},"htmlText":"Always becareful&nbsp;","listText":"Always becareful&nbsp;","text":"Always becareful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178201108","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5277264,"gmtCreate":1626825260225,"gmtModify":1663231237633,"authorId":3581982441889617,"author":{"id":3581982441889617,"idStr":"3581982441889617","authorId":3581982441889617,"name":"edamame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63449ce6bfbebf6849034560328a7d39","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178201108,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>yes</u>","text":"<u>yes</u>","html":"<u>yes</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178200146,"gmtCreate":1626821813785,"gmtModify":1703765683583,"author":{"id":"3579743164156658","authorId":"3579743164156658","name":"sheenayam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1b57a8371314fd64ce0840001df6b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579743164156658","idStr":"3579743164156658"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178200146","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276457,"gmtCreate":1626821832889,"gmtModify":1663231234049,"authorId":3582053708073909,"author":{"id":3582053708073909,"idStr":"3582053708073909","authorId":3582053708073909,"name":"WeiChyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1215c6c4b4962560ae3ef6fe8d752a11","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178200146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178672883,"gmtCreate":1626821566242,"gmtModify":1703765679027,"author":{"id":"4088415017171770","authorId":"4088415017171770","name":"PYEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd529f4a692f5731760183a63c10858","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088415017171770","idStr":"4088415017171770"},"htmlText":"Please like, thank you.","listText":"Please like, thank you.","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178672883","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276809,"gmtCreate":1626823333109,"gmtModify":1663231236945,"authorId":4088415017171770,"author":{"id":4088415017171770,"idStr":"4088415017171770","authorId":4088415017171770,"name":"PYEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd529f4a692f5731760183a63c10858","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178672883,"type":1,"supId":5276469,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you, have a good day!","text":"Thank you, have a good day!","html":"Thank you, have a good day!"},{"id":5276450,"gmtCreate":1626821769066,"gmtModify":1663231232942,"authorId":3582865570179528,"author":{"id":3582865570179528,"idStr":"3582865570179528","authorId":3582865570179528,"name":"JQ62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da715325270bb26fbcbce63e45f86a81","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178672883,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"},{"id":5276469,"gmtCreate":1626821907457,"gmtModify":1663231232266,"authorId":3579001569849492,"author":{"id":3579001569849492,"idStr":"3579001569849492","authorId":3579001569849492,"name":"STB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f725ab442d9f422a537ae96e62ca0354","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178672883,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178679736,"gmtCreate":1626821253925,"gmtModify":1703765672640,"author":{"id":"3581468805519961","authorId":"3581468805519961","name":"Lilian Lim","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfb0d2745985c48f555e080a3188a2d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581468805519961","idStr":"3581468805519961"},"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178679736","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276397,"gmtCreate":1626821362377,"gmtModify":1663231233331,"authorId":3570742778586711,"author":{"id":3570742778586711,"idStr":"3570742778586711","authorId":3570742778586711,"name":"firefirefire","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e33159cc1bfc6784fa479fe87a11fd33","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.51%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178679736,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>like</u>","text":"<u>like</u>","html":"<u>like</u>"},{"id":5276420,"gmtCreate":1626821498677,"gmtModify":1663231229866,"authorId":3577420386659159,"author":{"id":3577420386659159,"idStr":"3577420386659159","authorId":3577420386659159,"name":"Huat899","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178679736,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like and comment, thanks","text":"Pls like and comment, thanks","html":"Pls like and comment, thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178679842,"gmtCreate":1626821225186,"gmtModify":1703765671827,"author":{"id":"3586817050833129","authorId":"3586817050833129","name":"Siak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed2639a3eeb56c6706ffb23a3d0059fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586817050833129","idStr":"3586817050833129"},"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178679842","repostId":1109861258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109861258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p>\n<p><b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p>\n<p>Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p>\n<p>There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p>\n<p>We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p>\n<p>If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276421,"gmtCreate":1626821507228,"gmtModify":1663231234047,"authorId":3577420386659159,"author":{"id":3577420386659159,"idStr":"3577420386659159","authorId":3577420386659159,"name":"Huat899","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178679842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like and comment, thanks","text":"Pls like and comment, thanks","html":"Pls like and comment, thanks"},{"id":5276404,"gmtCreate":1626821390725,"gmtModify":1663231233038,"authorId":3583025625698124,"author":{"id":3583025625698124,"idStr":"3583025625698124","authorId":3583025625698124,"name":"Cyberboyz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda6a2e3c6fe5eaf97f2228f49f8e497","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178679842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":641,"commentSize":90,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}