全球大通胀，近在咫尺

财主家的余粮2021-01-22

昨天晚上去吃夜宵，烧烤摊上的老板给我抱怨：“10块钱才能买5个辣椒，我烤了之后最多只能卖3块钱，别人还觉得贵，我的人工到底有多贱？”是的，什么东西都在涨价，除了普通人的劳动和收入。在“信用货币的终局”一文中我曾经提到，人类几千年经济史上，有一个不言而喻的真理：货币利率可以无限高，但不可以无限低，最低利率极限是0。因为，凡是被称作“财富”的东西，都是有获得成本和稀缺性的，为了对不同类型的财富进行交换...

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Comment（44）

SafetyFirst
·2021-01-25
End is near
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- SafetyFirst:
  market noise
  2021-01-29
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维森
·2021-01-25
趕緊買買買
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解放飞机
·2021-01-25
大家脫鉤美元，掛鉤人民幣纔是正解
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正义凛然99
·2021-01-24
各國一起放水印鈔，實在**！
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1
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琳泽
·2021-01-23
慘了
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2
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MyGate
·2021-01-23
Get bitcoim
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Balloony
·2021-01-23
It’s coming
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SafetyFirst
·2021-01-23
Omg that's scary
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- SafetyFirst:
  ya
  2021-01-30
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阿呆宝
·2021-01-23
1980年前後的黃金泡沫、1990年前後的日經指數泡沫、1997年前後的泰國資產泡沫、2000年前後的科技股泡沫、2006年的美國房價泡沫、2007年的中國股市泡沫、現在的比特幣泡沫和科技股領頭羊泡沫，如果詳細地分析下去，幾乎每一場泡沫，都是來源於信用貨幣泡沫！
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5
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龙疼虎乐
·2021-01-23
全球經濟總統都未復甦，不通脹，美股怎麼漲啊[財迷] [財迷] [財迷] 支持通脹[捂臉] [捂臉] [捂臉]
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2
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介寺菩洱
·2021-01-23
力求自保盈餘更好
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3
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wenjin
·2021-01-23
Thanks
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1
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南山战斗野猪
·2021-01-23
不完全贊同作者的說法，感覺到深深的爲比特幣等區塊鏈資產背書的隱含意圖，實質上抑制通脹纔是各國央行的主要任務，作者二元化的把通脹責任歸咎到央行而不去分析市場的實際情況有些本末倒置的感覺。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-01-23
  Reply
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chiapopo
·2021-01-23
科科。。。。
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jk小猫猫
·2021-01-23
先封幾個大將軍！然後，東西南北中，兵分幾路....[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
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1
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傲娇少女心
·2021-01-23
那現在是不是該換些美金放着？
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1
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- BHINNKJ:
  ？换着美金就贬值了
  2021-01-25
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红辣椒蕾子哥
·2021-01-23
拿着信用貨幣跑贏通脹和指數？
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年轮蝈蝈
·2021-01-22
2014年黃金嚴重低估期，一直到18年左右纔開始走出低估，通貨越膨脹，黃金價格越低，盛世買古董，亂世買黃金，最簡單的道理，黃金從來沒在通脹的時候保值過。這種水平的小編也能被推上來也是服了
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-01-23
  Reply
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好好看看你自己
·2021-01-22
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-01-22
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hand.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962766a7132b45c1a6e061e7b4dded6a","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"昨天晚上去吃夜宵，烧烤摊上的老板给我抱怨：“10块钱才能买5个辣椒，我烤了之后最多只能卖3块钱，别人还觉得贵，我的人工到底有多贱？”是的，什么东西都在涨价，除了普通人的劳动和收入。在“信用货币的终局”一文中我曾经提到，人类几千年经济史上，有一个不言而喻的真理：货币利率可以无限高，但不可以无限低，最低利率极限是0。因为，凡是被称作“财富”的东西，都是有获得成本和稀缺性的，为了对不同类型的财富进行交换，人类才发明了货币这个概念，用金钱的数值来标识财富的规模——作为财富的代表，货币当然也是稀缺的。因为稀缺，所以你借别人的钱，必须要付出成本，这个成本就是利息，而我们把一年内支付的利息，占借款数额的比例，称之为“利率”或者“收益率”。不管真实利率还是名义利率，所有把利率压低到0以下的行为，本身就违反了自然法则。你有一桶蜂蜜，有人答应以10%的利率借走，可是，等还回来的时候，重量虽然增加了10%，你却发现蜂蜜里加了20%的水，请问这个人是什么人？是花言巧语的骗子。你有一桶蜂蜜，有人要借走你的蜂蜜，不仅不给你支付利息，还反过来，要没收你的一部分蜂蜜给他当利息，请问这个人是什么人？自2014年以来，日本、英国、欧洲和美国的央行，先后通过天量印钞和债券购买，均把其货币真实利率压低在0以下的水平——甚至，像欧元区和日本，有时候干脆让名义收益率也变成负值。也正是因为他们把各国国债的真实收益率，长期压低在0以下的水平，聪明人对信用货币的信仰产生了持续的怀疑。2014年以来，在大宗商品之王——原油价格暴跌的情况下，美国的科技股，中国的房地产，还有黄金和比特币，整体上都在持续暴涨。它们所反映的，并不是什么资产本身的升值，而是聪明人对央行疯狂制造的货币泡沫的对抗。看到一张美国银行关于资产泡沫的图片，里面列举了1977年迄今40多年所出现过的主要资产价格飙升，而比特币是最显著的一个。所以，标题就叫做：比特币是泡沫之母？实际上，这幅图上所列举的1980年前后的黄金泡沫、1990年前后的日经指数泡沫、1997年前后的泰国资产泡沫、2000年前后的科技股泡沫、2006年的美国房价泡沫、2007年的中国股市泡沫、现在的比特币泡沫和科技股领头羊泡沫，如果详细地分析下去，几乎每一场泡沫，都是来源于信用货币泡沫！在我看来，除了信用货币本身的泡沫，其他的大类资产，事实上都称不上什么泡沫。下图就是西方最大的10个经济体自2006年以来央行资产负债表的扩张情况，其中深蓝色、浅蓝色、灰色分别为美联储、欧央行和日本央行的资产负债表情况，而右纵轴和红线，则是表示G10国家整体上央行资产规模与GDP的比例。正如我在前面一篇文章里所说，2020年3月份以来世界主要经济体的印钞规模，超过了2008年以前5000年文明史人类印钞规模的总和。如果不把这个称为泡沫，却反过来说什么比特币、黄金上涨是泡沫，简直是指鹿为马、颠倒黑白。随着央行资产规模/GDP的数值越来越高，甚至超过100%，以后，人类GDP增长，全部都要依赖于央行，只有央行的印钞才能创造经济增长。在央行养育世界人民的过程中，新冠疫情爆发，全球数十亿人被禁足，无数企业破产，无数人失业，全球产业链、供应链都被严重破坏，除了那些能拼命发钱的国际储备货币国民众，这个世界上绝大多数人的收入都大幅度降低，生活变得更加艰难。但，几乎所有大类资产价格，却都在蹭蹭蹭暴涨。——包括粮食，央行们所不能生产的粮食。俄罗斯粮食价格，11月份单月上涨了6%，而俄罗斯民众三季度收入却比去年下降了5%。你该说了，不对啊，俄罗斯是世界第6大粮食生产国，同时也是世界主要粮食出口国之一，国际市场上20%的出口小麦由俄罗斯供给，粮食生产又没有听说受到疫情影响而减产啥的，咋就涨价了呢？答案是——因为外国人拿着美元来买，所以涨起来的。外国人的美元为啥变多了呢？当然就是美联储+美国政府给美国人疯狂发钱，美国人当然就拿着美元全世界买买买，比方越南这样的国家，当然就多挣了很多美元，当然也就有能力以更高的价格进口粮食……这就是世界通胀的传导路径。俄罗斯粮食一涨价，俄罗斯政府就出台措施，对出口大豆征收30%的关税，出口小麦则征收每吨25欧元（约200元人民币）的出口关税，而且从接下来的2月15日至6月30日实施可出口小麦、黑麦、玉米、大麦总量不超过1500万吨的配额限制（这比同期正常出口数字低很多）。这意味着，国际市场上的小麦、黑麦、玉米、大豆供给都要减少了，那，还不意味着要涨价？全世界人民主要吃的粮食，也就是小麦和大米。但大米，也开始涨价了。根据报道，2020年越南开始从印度进口大米，几十年来的第一次，这事儿太不简单了。——因为，越南一直是全球第三大大米出口国，多年来其大米出口量，仅次于印度和泰国，结果现在不仅不出口，还要购买，你说大米要不要涨价？岂止是俄罗斯和越南，世界最主要的几个粮食和农产品出口国，如巴西、阿根廷、加拿大，也都开始动手，阿根廷暂停玉米出口，大豆出口狂加33%的关税，按照阿根廷农业部的说法，主要是为了确保当地的粮食供应充足……作为全球最大的粮食出口国，美国的粮食生产商，一方面有政府发钱高额补贴，另一方面对全球粮食价格上涨乐享其成……小麦、大米类的主粮价格已经大涨，而大豆、玉米这些辅粮或肉类生产的原料同样暴涨，在不久的将来，必然带来全世界肉类价格的上涨。联合国粮食计划署，曾在2020年4月疫情初起的时候，发出警告说，瘟疫可能引发创纪录的粮食危机，看来，这一幕正在全世界逐渐上演。难道，这就是欧美日央行嘴里所谓的“没有通胀”么？烧烤摊老板的那个辣椒，为什么会涨价，才不是什么个别现象，那可是与国际接轨的。2020年3月份以来，美联储一边疯狂印钞，美国广义货币的增速创下历史最高纪录。但，美联储仍然信誓旦旦，没有看到通胀抬升的迹象，印钞有理，印钞很好，唯有印钞和发钱，才是把美国人民从疫情中挽救出来的唯一途径。我想，美联储和欧洲央行、日本央行可能都患有选择性失明症。根据美联储自己的数据，过去100年里，每一次美元M2增速飙升，随后1-2年内，都带来了美国通胀数据的飙升，从来没有例外。这一次，美联储狂印几万亿美元，广义货币M2的增速超过第二次世界大战时期，创下历史最高记录，在这种情况下，美联储凭什么还蜜汁自信，居然觉得不会引发严重通胀？物价上涨是必然的。资产价格已经大涨为敬，美国物价暂时不涨，向美国提供商品和服务的国家和地区的物价就会上涨，非洲南亚东南亚拉美的物价也会上涨，然后再传导回到美国、欧洲和日本。在这个全球经济一体化的时代，不管美国还是欧洲日本所超发的货币，首先反馈到发达国家的资本市场，接着，就是向美国提供商品和服务的经济体，在美国资本市场大涨之后，从美国挣贸易顺差的经济体如东南亚、日本，马上物价上涨在即。在生产领域，生产力受疫情影响的经济体出厂的大宗商品，大家已经眼睁睁的看着它价格暴涨了。显然，在各国央行2020年不计成本的放水之下，我们很快就将迎来一场全球性通胀，美元欧元这样的全球货币，自然可以全球买买买，狠狠地搜刮铸币税，绝大多数不是国际货币的经济体，其普遍民众，不仅要被美欧这样的国际货币掠夺，还得承受本国货币超发的成本……","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":319328338,"gmtCreate":1611540256324,"gmtModify":1704860532086,"author":{"id":"3570965583958757","authorId":"3570965583958757","name":"SafetyFirst","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6356c1a4c82b1755621f3b2631a6784","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570965583958757","authorIdStr":"3570965583958757"},"htmlText":"End 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