鹰派信号！美联储逐步变脸，楼市股市咋整？

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鹰派信号！美联储逐步变脸，楼市股市咋整？

杠杆游戏2021-06-17

全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的...

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Comment（19）

CKWAI
·2021-06-18
來，回覆和點贊，謝謝
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2
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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_0704
·2021-06-18
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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2
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hhyw
·2021-06-18
大跌開始了??
Reply
5
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- zh2021:
  [惊讶]
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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我要Bonus
·2021-06-18
求贊和回覆。謝謝
Reply
6
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- Xlaire:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-20
  Reply
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- hhyw:
  请回复和点赞
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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AndrewChong
·2021-06-18
好
Reply
1
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云里梦里飞
·2021-06-18
樓市不是隻有一個主旋律---買買買嗎？
Reply
1
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SUSU
·2021-06-18
Pls like and comments thank you
Reply
3
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haiwei183
·2021-06-18
看好
Reply
4
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小雨的小宣
·2021-06-18
[開心]
Reply
4
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小雨哈哈嘿
·2021-06-18
[開心]
Reply
2
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Kevin29
·2021-06-18
鷹派紛爭，誰以爭鋒
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2
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- 云里梦里飞:
  韭菜遭殃啊
  2021-06-18
  Reply
  Report
SunnyLeo
·2021-06-18
符合預期沒什麼
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2
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- 云里梦里飞:
  就是狼来了的第N+2次
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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- SunnyLeo:
  ?
  2021-06-18
  Reply
  Report
永远的懊悔
·2021-06-18
不要擔心
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1
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dkpoh
·2021-06-18
666 ?
Reply
1
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- 隨缘呗:
  [惊讶]
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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- haiwei183:
  看好
  2021-06-18
  Reply
  Report
ccssyy
·2021-06-18
？
Reply
3
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- ccssyy:
  我
  2021-06-27
  Reply
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- ccssyy:
  好
  2021-06-24
  Reply
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- ccssyy:
  没回，不一样
  2021-06-18
  Reply
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dong114
·2021-06-18
?
Reply
1
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高明兴_8399
·2021-06-18
厲害了
Reply
4
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TsonG
·2021-06-17
[呆住]
Reply
4
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隨缘呗
·2021-06-17
[暗中觀察]
Reply
6
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- 飞鸟跌穴298884:
  ?
  2021-06-19
  Reply
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The Federal Reserve has gradually changed its face. What about the property market and stock market?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f4324b004b99c04bb056805a469c92","symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":168278139,"gmtCreate":1623977606721,"gmtModify":1703825176048,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576460381606543","idStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","listText":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","text":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168278139","repostId":1111690771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4853418,"gmtCreate":1623977615527,"gmtModify":1663229222333,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168278139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168247707,"gmtCreate":1623977501209,"gmtModify":1703825170462,"author":{"id":"3577396634129991","authorId":"3577396634129991","name":"_0704","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/93efcfdce768000a03c160f52050f2f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577396634129991","idStr":"3577396634129991"},"htmlText":"說說你對這篇新聞的看法...","listText":"說說你對這篇新聞的看法...","text":"說說你對這篇新聞的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168247707","repostId":1111690771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168674036,"gmtCreate":1623975219925,"gmtModify":1703825043192,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"大跌開始了??","listText":"大跌開始了??","text":"大跌開始了??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168674036","repostId":1111690771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4852496,"gmtCreate":1623976059728,"gmtModify":1635312502603,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168674036,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id"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