The Fed Meets This Week. What to Watch.

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The Fed Meets This Week. What to Watch.

Barrons2021-04-27

Bond investors will have plenty of headlines to hold their attention this week. But barring any big surprises from the Federal Reserve, it isn’t clear how much of an effect the news will have on the ...

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Kqqq
·2021-04-27
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- viny:
  done
  2021-04-27
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绮绮888
·2021-04-27
Good tips
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Elliejellie
·2021-04-27
Like and comment pls
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- Fartyclown:
  .
  2021-04-28
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- sugizoi4u:
  Done
  2021-04-27
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aazbhsj
·2021-04-27
like n comment please
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- Elliejellie:
  Like anD comment pls
  2021-04-27
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- alvernsim:
  Done bro!
  2021-04-27
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YongYufei
·2021-04-27
Pls comment n like ... thanks
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- YongYufei:
  ThaNks
  2021-04-27
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- alvernsim:
  There u go!
  2021-04-27
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blackcurrant
·2021-04-27
Pls like and comment ?
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- blackcurrant:
  thanks!!
  2021-05-18
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- SSVC:
  Done
  2021-05-17
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- YongYufei:
  Okie
  2021-04-27
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What to Watch.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-bond-investors-are-watching-this-week-fed-day-inflation-data-51619407724?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bond investors will have plenty of headlines to hold their attention this week. But barring any big surprises from the Federal Reserve, it isn’t clear how much of an effect the news will have on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-bond-investors-are-watching-this-week-fed-day-inflation-data-51619407724?mod=RTA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-bond-investors-are-watching-this-week-fed-day-inflation-data-51619407724?mod=RTA","article_id":"1114057765","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114057765","pubTimestamp":1619492195,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Bond investors will have plenty of headlines to hold their attention this week. 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The central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged, with rates near zero and bond-buying continuing at its $120 billion monthly pace.\nThe biggest focus will be on any hints about the outlook for policy in coming years that are provided in the statement or by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at his press conference. Investors are trying to figure out when the central bank will start withdrawing its support for markets by reducing the pace of its bond purchases. \nFew expect fireworks, even after a handful of economic reports indicating that the U.S. economy is rebounding quickly from the Covid-19 pandemic. This month has brought stronger-than-expected data on job creation, retail sales, and consumer prices. \n“Next week’s FOMC meeting promises to be rather uneventful. Will the FOMC’s tone change in light of improving data? Almost certainly not,” wrote Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons, money-market economists at Jefferies. \nTo understand why, it may help to take a broader perspective on the recent strength in job creation. While nearly a million jobs were created in March, the labor market is still well behind where it was before Covid-19 hit. When workers who were laid off and incorrectly classified as employed are taken into account, along with those who have dropped out of the labor force since the start of the pandemic, the unemployment rate was still around 9% in March, according to Jefferies. \nWall Street doesn’t expect any talk about tapering bond purchases either. The consensus among economists at Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Jefferies seems to be that policy makers will wait until June (or more broadly, this summer) to start signaling the start of a withdrawal from markets. \nThe decision to taper bond purchases will also matter because it could provide an inexact date for when the Fed might start to consider raising interest rates, as Goldman Sachs pointed out in an April 23 note. Market prices reflect the Fed raising rates in early 2023, and the timing could stay around that point, the bank argued, because the central bank will likely stop adding bonds to its balance sheet before it starts raising rates. \nThat could limit how much short-term yields move if the Fed proceeds as expected. If stronger-than-expected inflation data crops up, investors may bet on a quicker pace of increases in the future, but they might not want to bet on the Fed’s policy rate rising before late 2022 or early 2023, the bank wrote. \nGoldman Sachs’ thesis could be put to the test on Friday, however, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports data on personal spending and the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation, the price index for personal consumption expenditures. \nEconomists expect the PCE price index to increase 0.5% in March from the prior month, and a 2.3% from last year. The latter figure might look high, but the growth is compared to a time when economic activity was grinding to a halt because of the Covid-19 pandemic. And excluding volatile food and energy prices, they rose just 1.8% from last year. Notably, economists also expect a 20% monthly increase in personal income, largely because of coronavirus aid checks, but one that fully offsets the 7.1% decrease the month before. Personal spending is expected to increase 4.2%. \nWhile the headline numbers will look strong, if the Fed meeting doesn’t bring any surprises, the figures may need to beat estimates by a healthy margin to have a strong effect on markets. \nAnd because Wall Street largely expects an uneventful meeting, there could be bumps if the Fed does throw a curveball at markets by signaling a plan for bond purchases. \nFind this week’s economic data, Treasury auctions, and more below, with Bloomberg economist estimates and Eastern time: \nMonday\nDurable goods orders: Durable goods orders are expected to climb 2.5% in March, rebounding from a 1.2% decline the month before. Excluding volatile transportation costs, they are expected to climb 1.6%. The report is due out at 8:30 a.m. \nTreasury auctions: The U.S. plans to sell $60 billion of 2-year notes and $61 billion of 5-year notes at 1 p.m. It also will sell $111 billion of 3-month and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. The 5-year note sale may be interesting, as they aren’t short-dated enough to be pinned down by the market’s reasonable expectations that the Fed won’t raise rates until early 2023, as discussed above. \nTuesday\nHousing data: Investors will be looking for more confirmation of this year’s U.S. housing-market strength. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index is expected to rise 1.1% in February, a slight deceleration from 1.2% the month before. The slight decline may be partly explained by February’s inclement weather. \nConsumer confidence: The Conference Board is expected to report an improvement in consumer confidence in April, with economists forecasting a rise to 112.2 from 109.7 the month before. The data is slated for 10 a.m. release. \nTreasury auctions: The U.S. will sell $28 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $62 billion of 7-year notes at 1 p.m. While few expect the 2-year note to float around much in the next two years, the larger 7-year note auction could be more interesting. \nWednesday\nFed Day: See above. Rates are expected to stay at zero and the central bank is expected to keep buying $120 billion per month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The real action should come at the press conference, or in the unlikely event that the statement provides more clarity on the outlook for future policy. \nThursday\nJobless claims: Economists expect 550,000 new claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended April 24, and investors will be watching to see whether the data continues its hot streak:  Claims have come in well below forecasts for two weeks in a row now. The report is due out at 8:30 a.m. \nGDP data:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report that the U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 6.9% annualized pace in the first quarter of this year, and that personal consumption rose more than 10%. While the rebound might earn some attention, GDP is a slightly backward-looking indicator, and inflation and labor-market data matter more for the Fed, if not its critics. The data is slated for 8:30 a.m. \nFriday\nPersonal income and inflation data:  As discussed above, economists are forecasting a stimulus-supported 20% March jump in personal income and a 4.2% increase in personal spending, while inflation is expected to rise 2.3%, and core inflation is estimated at 1.8%. The data is due out at 8:30 a.m. \nEmployment cost index:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports this figure at 8:30 a.m., which is a measure of changes in wages and worker compensation. Economists predict the BLS will report a 0.7% increase in the first quarter, in line with the prior quarter. \nConsumer sentiment: At 10 a.m., the University of Michigan is expected to report further improvement in its final consumer-sentiment gauge for April, to 87.5 from 86.5.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":377132554,"gmtCreate":1619503697978,"gmtModify":1704725049645,"author":{"id":"3572660301203475","authorId":"3572660301203475","name":"Kqqq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0055eb0f3a7486450d414d868c7bb4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572660301203475","idStr":"3572660301203475"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and 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tips","listText":"Good tips","text":"Good tips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377324362","repostId":1114057765,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":377977271,"gmtCreate":1619493285493,"gmtModify":1704724866931,"author":{"id":"3562494157652705","authorId":"3562494157652705","name":"Elliejellie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a9ea366c24ac27052474431cf2fb21","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562494157652705","idStr":"3562494157652705"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment 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n comment please","listText":"like n comment please","text":"like n comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377970828","repostId":1114057765,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4146018,"gmtCreate":1619493298614,"gmtModify":1680785792640,"authorId":3562494157652705,"author":{"id":3562494157652705,"idStr":"3562494157652705","authorId":3562494157652705,"name":"Elliejellie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a9ea366c24ac27052474431cf2fb21","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":377970828,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like anD comment pls","text":"Like anD comment pls","html":"Like anD comment pls"},{"id":4145953,"gmtCreate":1619492859650,"gmtModify":1680785792337,"authorId":3575936957429593,"author":{"id":3575936957429593,"idStr":"3575936957429593","authorId":3575936957429593,"name":"alvernsim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2fe3d62fe9cea4c6c6e6417f045322d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":377970828,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done bro!","text":"Done bro!","html":"Done bro!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":377947554,"gmtCreate":1619492505578,"gmtModify":1704724853569,"author":{"id":"3576243705895352","authorId":"3576243705895352","name":"YongYufei","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31b67b56ec86a7146c596283712c91d9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576243705895352","idStr":"3576243705895352"},"htmlText":"Pls comment n like ... thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls comment n like ... thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls comment n like ... 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