Sell Alert: 10 Insanely Overvalued Dividend Aristocrats

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Sell Alert: 10 Insanely Overvalued Dividend Aristocrats

seekingalpha2021-03-26

Summary In a world full of uncertainty, dividend aristocrats feel safe and trustworthy. But even they are subject to wild variations in price. These have resulted in gains for investors, but now, ...

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xoomix
·2021-03-29
Like n comment pls
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Ben0619
·2021-03-26
[微笑]
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Dwnt
·2021-03-26
[微笑]
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Tzewei94
·2021-03-26
Like and comments thank you
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- Tzewei94:
  thanks
  2021-04-01
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- Tzewei94:
  like and comments
  2021-03-30
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- aliciatng:
  thanks
  2021-03-26
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木吉蒂
·2021-03-26
Buy only when there's value ie when prices are lower
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- thammada:
  Well said
  2021-03-26
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Money Sprout
·2021-03-26
Value traps like what Cathie says!
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HUATkueh
·2021-03-26
Ok
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一三88
·2021-03-26
?
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Amandae
·2021-03-26
Like and comment pls
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- TJKE:
  Liked
  2021-03-26
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- TruthfulPep:
  Liked and commented
  2021-03-26
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- 4ebeaef4:
  Ok
  2021-03-26
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No, of course not. However, it is possible that he believes it has become overvalued.\nIt should be noted that we disagree with a few of his buys, as well as a few of a couple of his sells.\nThat being said, the idea is simple:If you buy when stocks are low, you might also want to sell when they're high.\nIf you don't, you're not only having half the fun, you're leaving a lot of money on the table. (Yes even after taxes are taken into account).\nFor a more detailed look into the mechanics of how this pertains to dividend investors, I would like to point you to our recent article in which I pointed out 5 overvalued dividend blue chips which were now deep in sell territory.\nThe 5 companies were Target (TGT), Caterpillar (CAT), Procter & Gamble (PG), McDonald's (MCD), and Automatic Data Processing (ADP).\nAll 5 are Dividend Aristocrats, a rare breed of stocks which are 1. part of the S&P 500 (SPY) and 2. have increased their dividends consecutively for the past 25 years.\nIn so far as \"All Weather\" dividend streams go, Dividend Aristocrats are the cream of the crop.\nThey provide comfort, after all, you own a piece of American greatness. Yet sometimes even these stocks can become extremely overvalued.\nWhen this happens, reducing your position makes sense. If the conditions persist, scaling out entirely of the position can also be a good idea.\nA note on valuation\nAs a quick reminder, we are dividend investors and use an approach to valuation which is unique to The Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nIn a nutshell:\n\n To determine whether a stock is overvalued, we use our MAD Charts, which look at historical ranges of dividend yields for a given stock, and we tie it in to future growth expectations. The idea being that a low yield is fine if it is linked to very high dividend growth expectations. We project income into the future to quantify this.\n\nThis means that we will look at whether a stock is expensive relative to what investors have historically valued the stock at.\nWe will then look at prospective growth rates and determine if the potential stream of income is attractive to a dividend investor.\nIt is sometimes the case that a company could be a fantastic dividend stock, but because its price outpaces its dividend growth by such a huge margin, it can no longer be construed as an attractive dividend stock and is best replaced by a more attractive one.\nAn investor following a different strategy might come to a totally different conclusion. Isn't that the beauty of it? A recent article titled \"Value Vs. Growth: A Trip Down Memory Lane (And 3 Value Stocks You Need To Buy Now)\" explores this idea.\nThe current market is broadly expensive, but remember there is always something cheap. Even among high quality dividend stocks. Our \"Buy List\" currently counts 36 high quality names.\nYou want to buy the high quality dividend names when they're cheap, and sell them when they're high.\nRinse and repeat.\nAnd right now there are a lot of stocks, even high quality ones, that are worth selling.\nHere are 10 more dividend aristocrats which are insanely expensive from a dividend investor's point of view.\n10 Overvalued Dividend Aristocrats\nWalmart (WMT)\nLet's start this one off with one of America's widows and orphans favorites: Walmart.\nThe company needs no introduction. It operates a very tight ship, paying out only 22% of free cash flow despite having increased the dividend for multiple decades.\nDespite being as mature as they get, the company has continued to increase its revenues throughout the past few years.\nIt's as \"All Weather\" as it gets. Don't count on WMT cutting its dividend in the next 20 years. It's not going to happen.\nSo what's the catch?\nThe catch is the menial growth rate, which is beyond comprehension, tied to an extremely low yield.\nWhile free cash flow per share grew a total 32% in the past 5 years, the dividend is up only about 8%.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe (Click here to learn more about MAD Charts)\nThis equates to a 1.9% dividend CAGR during the past 5 years. Dividends could have increased a lot more given the low payout ratios, but management has chosen not to do so.\nThis was not the case 10 years ago, as you can see, the dividend increased rapidly between 2011 and 2013, but since then management has taken a significantly different approach.\nOver 10 years, the dividend CAGR has been 4%.\nAs a consequence, following the run up in price in the past few years, WMT has become overvalued.\nIts 1.64% yield is below the 10-year median yield of 2.44% and way out of the historically \"fair range\" of 2.14% to 2.69%. I call it the historically fair range because even if Walmart were to prop its dividend growth back up to 4% per annum (which would be double what it did in the past 7 years) income would not be satisfactory.\nOur common quick test is referred to as the \"10% in 10 years\" test. In a nutshell, an income stream can be viewed as very attractive if in 10 years, you can get 10% on your initial investment including the reinvestment of dividends.\nSo if you invest $10,000 and you can expect to get $1,000 in 10 years, then it is a great income opportunity. At 8% it would be a good opportunity.\nBelow, it's not a bad income opportunity, and you shouldn't consider the stock as paying an attractive dividend stream.\nOf course, this is sensitive to our estimate of dividend growth over the next 10 years, which is why to drive our point home, we will always overestimate dividend growth in this article.\nIf a stock's income stream is unattractive in a best-case scenario, what does it say of it?I'll let you answer that one.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nIf you invest $10,000 in WMT today, and that you reinvest the dividends once per year at the current yield, and the dividend grows 4% per annum, then in 10 years you'd expect... a menial $277 per year of which $37 (the blue bar in the chart above) would come from having reinvested dividends.\nThat's only 2.77% of your original investment. Let me say this: this is very, very, unattractive.\nHere, we have an example of where both management and the stock market are culprits: management has not committed to significantly increase the dividend, and the stock market has pushed the price up way too high. Sell.\nLowe's (LOW)\nNext is another dividend investor favorite.\nLOW currently yields 1.33%, which is below its 10-year median 1.73% yield, out of its historical 'fair range\" of 1.53% to 1.96%.\nDuring the past 10 years, its dividend yield has never been less than 1.22% and never more than 3.38%.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nWhile LOW only increased its dividend by 9% this year, it has averaged 16.5% per year in the past 5 years, while maintaining a free cash flow payout ratio of just 20%.\nLOW is a phenomenally managed company, with a great business model. The price has just gone way too crazy.\nIf you invested $10,000 in LOW at current prices, reinvested dividends at the current yield and saw the dividend grow at 16% per annum for the next 10 years, then you'd be looking at $652 in income 10 years from now, of which $70 would come from dividend reinvestments.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNote that this is a lot more than Walmart, but it still doesn't pass our test as a \"good\" income stream.\nLOW yields less than WMT, but just observe how the difference in expected growth rates changes the course of income over 10 years!\nHowever, growth can't always make up for low yields. Case in point here, even 16% dividend growth (a 340% increase in 10 years) still wouldn't pass our test.\nCompare this to Home Depot (HD). We can't discuss LOW without HD. HD's yield is 2.3%, a whole extra point. It also pays out twice as much, although still a healthy 44% free cash flow payout ratio.\nHowever, if HD increases its dividend by 10% per annum (a 159% increase over 10 years), an investment in HD would return more dividends despite having to increase its dividend by only half.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNote that HD would only provide 7.12% in 10 years under such a scenario.\nWhen the price was at $255, the simulation passed the 8% mark, and triggered us to get back in the stock. That was within 2% of the low, which is not too bad.\nClorox (CLX)\nClorox is a stock, which I exited although my timing wasn't great as I missed the peak.\nIt has come back down though and is only 2% above the price when I last published an article on CLX, back in April 2020.\nAt that point, I suggested it wasn't the time to sell,but that \"If you're not invested in CLX, you're late to the game, and would be better served investing elsewhere.\"\nThe reasons which warranted holding CLX in April 2020 are no longer present (defensive, trending momentum, more gains to squeeze out).\nClorox is coming down and has further to drop.\nIt currently yields 2.3%, below its 10-year median of 2.77%, and out of its historically fair range of 2.45% to 3.2%.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLast year the company increased its dividend by 4.7%, but it has averaged 7.5% over the past 5 years.\nGiven the very reasonable payout ratios of 44%, I believe long term dividend growth of 7% is attainable for Clorox.\nHowever, this won't quite cut it from an income perspective. A $10,000 investment with 7% growth, and reinvestments at the current yield, would generate $546 in income in 10 years, of which $101 would come from dividend reinvestments.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nThis is not quite satisfactory, and given that Clorox's momentum is among the worst 6% of stocks in the market according to our Momentum Score., then I'd strongly suggesting avoiding CLX, and moving out of the position if not yet done.\nS&P Global (SPGI)\nS&P Global is a great company. It is beautifully managed, it has a long history of growth, and a lot of track ahead of it to continue increasing its dividend aggressively.\nYou can't really fault management, the dividend has been growing at 16% per annum for the past 5 years, while maintaining the free cash flow payout ratio below 20%.\nIt is once again a case of the market collectively getting too high(pun intended)on how good a company it is.\nThe current yield of 0.89% is extremely low.\nThis wasn't always the case. Back in 2011, and in early 2013, one could buy SPGI with a 2.8% yield, which would have been a great investment.\nIt is only fair to point out that had we done so, we would have also exited early, likely sometime in late 2017 or 2018, and would have been very comfortable foregoing future returns to shift to value, increase our income stream, and sleep well at night.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nThe relationship between yield and growth rates gets extreme as yields get very low.\nWith the same $10,000 simulation, assuming 16% dividend growth with reinvestments of dividends, in 10 years you could only expect $408 in dividends, half the amount to be considered a good income opportunity.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nFor SPGI to be considered a good income opportunity at the current valuation, one would have to believe that they would be able to increase the dividend by 25% per annum. Over 10 years that equates to an 831% increase, which somehow seems like a pipe dream.\nSell.\nEmerson Electric (EMR)\nIndustrials have been having one hell of a run. We've enjoyed this in our own industrial picks. One of our favorite is Snap-on (SNA) which we've been quite vocal about in the past year.\nEmerson Electric has also had one hell of a run but now trades at a valuation that is unheard of in the past decade.\nThe stock yields 2.3%, below its 10-year median yield of 3%, outside of its historically fair range of 2.7% to 3.3%.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nBut this is combined to the fact that since 2014, dividend growth hasn't even kept up with inflation. If you've been checking inflation numbers in the past 7 years, you know that that is not a lot.\nIn the past 5 years, the dividend has grown at a 1% CAGR, while management could have easily achieved more. The free cash flow payout ratio was 52% 5 years ago. Today it's 40%.\nOnly one way to read into this, management is choosing to not increase the dividend in line with the growth in the business.\nThis is a negative signal for us, as it signals that management is viewing the dividend policy as a chore, and not as a way to actively reward shareholders for bearing the risk of the business they run.\nFor this one, let's run the simulation assuming management continue down this road, increasing the dividend by 1% per year.\nIf you invest $10,000, reinvest the dividends at the current yield, then in 10 years, you can expect a crazy $311 in dividends.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nAlternatively you could buy Broadcom (AVGO) and get that amount today, or if you want to stay in Industrials, SNA, and get that amount in a year or two.\nThe valuation doesn't meet management's commitment to shareholders. Sell.\nStanley Black & Decker (SWK)\nThe party in industrials has gotten out of hand in many places. Stanley Black & Decker is another example of this in action. The power and hand tools company now once again trades at a valuation which it last traded at in January 2018.\nIf you want to see how that played out. Just look at how much pain buying the stock then, or choosing to hold on to it would have been.\nAlternatively you could buy Broadcom (AVGO) and get that amount today, or if you want to stay in Industrials, SNA, and get that amount in a year or two.\nThe valuation doesn't meet management's commitment to shareholders. Sell.\nStanley Black & Decker (SWK)\nThe party in industrials has gotten out of hand in many places. Stanley Black & Decker is another example of this in action. The power and hand tools company now once again trades at a valuation which it last traded at in January 2018.\nIf you want to see how that played out. Just look at how much pain buying the stock then, or choosing to hold on to it would have been.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nIt would have taken you nearly 3 years for your position to be worth what it was then, and in exchange for your loyalty, you would have been compensated with dividend increases which have averaged about 3.5%.\nNot great.\nThe current yield of 1.45% is dangerously close to the 10-year minimum yield of 1.42%. It is way below the median yield of 2.08%, and out of the historically \"fair range\" of 1.8% to 2.36%.\nEven if the dividend were to grow in the next 10 years at 7.5% per annum (the rate which it has in the past 10 years) then it would still be a very lackluster investment from an income perspective.\nInvesting $10,000 at the current valuation, and reinvesting dividends in such a scenario would yield $333 in 10 years. Only 3.33% of your original investment.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nSave yourself the hardship, and start moving out of your SWK position.\nCintas (CTAS)\nThis trend exists in many Industrial stocks. Cintas is yet another example in the Dividend Aristocrat space.\nIt has been increasing at an incredible rate during the past decade, a period during which the dividend has grown at 20% per year.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nBut as you can see with the price moving from the blue band to the red band over the years, the market has continually reviewed its valuation of Cintas upwards.\nFor that reason it might not be worth looking towards historical ranges to derive value. Every year you would have said \"boy that looks expensive\".\nHere a better alternative is to look purely towards the future.\nEven if Cintas can keep up its historical growth rate of 20% per annum over the next ten years (it only managed 10% this past year)Cintas wouldn't quite reach our threshold of 8% on the initial investment, as the chart below shows.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNote that a 20% dividend growth rate is extremely powerful. It can increase income 6x on an extremely low yielding security. However, it is a momentous challenge as it implies multiplying the dividend by nearly 6x.\nIf they did somehow pull it off, while growing free cash flow at 8% per annum (the rate of revenue growth in the past 10 years) then the dividend would move from 30% of free cash flow to 85% of free cash flow.\nAnd yet from our income stream analysis, it would still come up short.\nSometimes things are just too much of a stretch.\nNucor (NUE)\nOvervalued names seem to pop up in nearly every sector this year.\nIf we move to Materials, we find Nucor which is yet again an example of a dividend aristocrat which has been increasing its dividend at such a low rate for so long. Its 2.4% yield cannot be counted on to give any significant boost to your income.\nDuring the past 10 years, the dividend has grown at a 1.3% CAGR. Over the past 5 years, this has gone down to 1.2%, with last year's increase an anemic 0.6% increase.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nManagement could probably have squeezed out more as free cash flow payout ratios have mostly been stable at around 50% for the past 5 years\nBut that highlights a problem. FCF per share has grown at the same rate as the dividend, this means about 1%.\nNow I have no problem with low growth businesses if they provide a safe high yield. But Nucor offers none of that. In fact, if we continue to project into the future at a growth rate of 1.3%, one could expect 3.34% on his original investment in 10 years, assuming reinvestments at the current yield.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nIt's been a good run, but it is time to sell.\nCincinnati Financial (CINF)\nInsurance companies were hit bad in 2020. It is a whole theme we have with our Dividend Freedom Tribe members, where we encourage them to buy undervalued insurance companies for a recovery scenario. One such stock is Prudential (PRU). Another is Aflac (AFL) which is also a Dividend Aristocrat.\nBut CINF, while being a very safe and stable Aristocrat, is also overvalued.\nIt yields 2.4%, well below its 10-year median of 3.2% and out of its historical fair range of 2.7% to 3.6%.\nNote that when it yields 3.5% or more, we think it is a great opportunity, but that has only happened during 3 periods in the past 10 years.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nAt the current rate it looks like a stretch, as if management is to continue with their course of increasing the dividend at a long term rate of 5% per annum, then CINF will fail to impress from an income perspective.\nIn 10 years, a $10,000 investment would produce $527 in income, assuming dividend reinvestments at the current yield.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nOnce again, a fantastic blue chip. Well run. Shareholder-friendly management. Sleep well at night stuff. But better opportunities out there.\nBecton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)\nThe final stock on the list is a healthcare stock. While BDX is off 10% from its highs, it still remains expensive in light of future potential.\nBDX yields below 1.38%, below its median yield of 1.68%, and only just within the historically fair range of 1.33% to 1.95%.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nIt's the only stock on the list which yields more than its 25th percentile yield, however, not enough to convince. Between 2011 and 2015, BDX yielded between 1.9% and 2.6% while its dividend was growing at a 10% CAGR. Then between 2017 and now, it has yielded between 1.3% and 1.6%, despite the dividend growth rate falling to 4% per annum.\nIf this feels like the world upside down to you, it feels that way to me too.\nThe trend is going towards lower 4-5% dividend growth per annum. Yet at a 32% free cash flow payout ratio, and a solid business, we can argue that maybe management could squeeze out its 10-year CAGR of 7% again in the upcoming decade.\nBut the yield is just too low to contribute significantly.\nIf the dividend were to grow at 7% and you were to invest $10,000 today and reinvest dividends at the current yield for the next 10 years, then you could expect $299 per year in dividends a decade from now.\nA menial amount, as you probably agree if you got this far in the article.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nScaling out of the position makes sense.\nConclusion\nIt's an interesting market, where we have a mixed bag of expensive stocks and cheap stocks. More and more are joining the ranks of the first category, making it a good time to trim positions.\nThere are a few corner cases where very large taxable gains might make selling not ideal. In this list, I can only see this maybe happening with LOW, if you have a very, very large gain.\nOtherwise moving out might be the best decision.\nJust think about it, you can own stocks that are historically overvalued, have poor dividend potential, and are at risk of capital loss or stagnation from here on.\nOr you can maintain (or even increase)your income today, improve your dividend potential in the next few years, while exposing yourself to value and buying stocks that will have their turn of outsized capital gains in the next few 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and comments thank you","listText":"Like and comments thank you","text":"Like and comments thank 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and <u>comments</u>","text":"like and <u>comments</u>","html":"like and <u>comments</u>"},{"id":3892257,"gmtCreate":1616765700288,"gmtModify":1680781863566,"authorId":3572214398550610,"author":{"id":3572214398550610,"idStr":"3572214398550610","authorId":3572214398550610,"name":"aliciatng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b23ee891a1061c7907495a9c7da890","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356987647,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>thanks</u>","text":"<u>thanks</u>","html":"<u>thanks</u>"},{"id":3891373,"gmtCreate":1616760096137,"gmtModify":1680781843190,"authorId":3574636093461410,"author":{"id":3574636093461410,"idStr":"3574636093461410","authorId":3574636093461410,"name":"thammada","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64bd66fcccfc86b5e81286648668869b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356987647,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":3889968,"gmtCreate":1616749962877,"gmtModify":1680781831550,"authorId":3575390834397772,"author":{"id":3575390834397772,"idStr":"3575390834397772","authorId":3575390834397772,"name":"Tigal80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f76710483a16eae0642572ffa5f1be","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss 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yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356913853,"gmtCreate":1616748084672,"gmtModify":1704798272827,"author":{"id":"3577229760496516","authorId":"3577229760496516","name":"木吉蒂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89290f2c42589f1e42296c61dde71238","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577229760496516","authorIdStr":"3577229760496516"},"htmlText":"Buy only when there's value ie when prices are lower","listText":"Buy only when there's value ie when prices are lower","text":"Buy only when there's value ie when prices are lower","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356913853","repostId":1114892411,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3891374,"gmtCreate":1616760115170,"gmtModify":1680781844580,"authorId":3574636093461410,"author":{"id":3574636093461410,"idStr":"3574636093461410","authorId":3574636093461410,"name":"thammada","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64bd66fcccfc86b5e81286648668869b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356913853,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Well said","text":"Well said","html":"Well said"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356994910,"gmtCreate":1616747420430,"gmtModify":1704798253466,"author":{"id":"3567511757211423","authorId":"3567511757211423","name":"Money 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says!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356994910","repostId":1114892411,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356990833,"gmtCreate":1616747136122,"gmtModify":1704798242441,"author":{"id":"3572312712757258","authorId":"3572312712757258","name":"HUATkueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936c7c3c568dece3e2a6ae1a4510ab73","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572312712757258","authorIdStr":"3572312712757258"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356990833","repostId":1114892411,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356074915,"gmtCreate":1616746749837,"gmtModify":1704798224772,"author":{"id":"3575078613037457","authorId":"3575078613037457","name":"一三88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7901a7321eace7efa3bec98bad0c2b1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575078613037457","authorIdStr":"3575078613037457"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356074915","repostId":1114892411,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356071155,"gmtCreate":1616746607377,"gmtModify":1704798218281,"author":{"id":"3572483384006535","authorId":"3572483384006535","name":"Amandae","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0519711df543c06e6b12631f58a67a90","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572483384006535","authorIdStr":"3572483384006535"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment 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