Perhaps, 90% of American people know that the United States is engaged in war in Afghanistan, while less than 50% of Americans can tell that Afghanistan has helped Al Qaeda in the past, and only 17% of American teenagers can find out the location of Afghanistan on the map. Why does a country separated by half of the earth from the United States own such a high reputation in the minds of American people? The only reason is that every American president has said that he wants to end the war in Afghanistan.
It was not Donald Trump, who was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, that ended the war in Afghanistan, but Biden. Biden chose to end the war in Afghanistan in the same way that the country ended the Vietnam War 60 years ago -- voluntarily withdrawing from the battlefield. After withdrawing from the Vietnam War, South Vietnam, supported by the United States, quickly lost the war. The Vietnam War was declared over, with the North and the South being reunified. The same is true today. The U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed at an even faster rate. Coincidentally, the United States fought both wars for 20 years.
Judging from the extensive coverage of major media in the United States, the incident has had a huge impact on the American elite. They cannot fully understand where their "shock" comes from, however. Here, 5 factors are summarized to illustrate it:
1. It is beyond expectation that the well-equipped Afghan government forces could be defeated in just a few days.
2. To their surprise, Biden insisted on withdrawing all US troops despite the military's opposition, leaving no one behind.
3. It is unexpected that the $83 billion that was used by the United States to train and arm the local army in Afghanistan comes to naught.
4. They cannot believe that the Afghan president who vowed to defend the capital the day before has quietly left Afghanistan a day later.
5. They never thought that the democratic government that the United States has cultivated for 20 years has not received widespread support from the Afghan people.
The last “shock”, without doubt, is the core.
Similar cases occurred more than 70 years ago: the cities were encircled from the rural areas; the backward weapons defeated the advanced weapons of America; the army of ruling party was controlled by warlords; the army was corrupt…
The US troops invaded Afghanistan in 2001 for Bin Laden who then was killed in 2011. The war had already been declared victory, but then the United States fell into a tug of war with an unknown purpose. On the one hand, the U.S. military cannot completely eliminate the Taliban; on the other hand, the U.S. military has always been intending to get away.
According to Associated Press News, the estimated amount of direct Afghanistan and Iraq war costs that the United States has debt-financed as of 2020 is $2 trillion, the estimated interest costs by 2050 is up to $6.5 trillion, and the estimated amount that the United States has committed to pay in health care, disability, burial and other costs for roughly 4 million Afghanistan and Iraq veterans is more than $2 trillion.
The only way the U.S. can think of is to establish the U.S. system in Afghanistan and train a modern military to protect the system.
However, the Afghan government failed to learn the essence of the American system. Instead, it accuses the other party of cheating after the election. After the 2019 Afghan presidential election, the second-ranked candidate expressed election fraud, and the first and second places held their respective presidential inauguration ceremonies. Finally, under the intervention of the Trump administration, the first two candidates shared the power.
The war in Afghanistan was initiated by Bush Jr., and the U.S. troops were withdrawn during Obama's term. Trump withdrew the troops further, and the person who made up his mind to complete the withdrawal was Biden. After Biden was elected at the end of last year, the Department of Defense of the United States was worried that Biden would order a complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, so it kept lobbying Biden to retain at least a few thousand troops. Biden was completely unmoved, however.
If the current Afghan government is unable to resist the Taliban, when can it? Even though the US military stays for another 10 years, and the situation in Afghanistan will not be changed. US intelligence agencies are inclined to cater to Biden, believing that even if the US forces are withdrawn, the Afghan government forces can guard the capital for at least 1.5 years. Looking at it now, the number 1.5 is correct, but the unit should be "weeks" instead of "years."
The pictures mostly reported by the Western media show that Afghans rushed onto the tarmac of the capital’s airport after Taliban’s takeover of the capital. But, it also can be seen from many other photos that the streets of the Afghan capital are still crowded with people, vehicles are constantly moving, and there is no riot or bloodshed throughout the city.
Western media have always blamed corruption for the defeat of government forces. It can be considered that the U.S. system has not solved the problem of corruption in Afghanistan. No Western media would admit that today’s situation in Afghanistan is the result of the choice made by most people, which may suggest the failure of the implementation of the American system.
It is worth noting that the Afghan people are not positive about the system of voting for the president. Afghanistan has a population of 38 million, with only 9.7 million registered voters. The number of voters in 2019 was only 1.6 million, which is far from that of the American people who voted at the risk of their lives during the coronavirus outbreak.
During the 20-year war in Afghanistan, the United States has received a lot of help from Afghan people. Many local people acted as translators, drivers, engineers, etc. for the U.S. military. At present, the safety of these people is under threat, because the U.S. forces are leaving Afghanistan. Although the international community has been calling for it for a long time, the United States has made slow progress in immigration work for this group of people. Biden has been under great pressure, but it is still difficult to promote it.
Generally speaking, the Afghan civilians who have helped the U.S. forces can be regarded as people who agree with American values, but the first batch of people to obtain immigrant visas waited until the end of July this year.
If it is so difficult for the United States to recognize and accept Afghan people, then it is a pseudo-proposition to require Afghanistan to recognize the American system from the very beginning.