Where Will Alibaba Stock Be In 5 Years?

seekingalpha2021-05-04

Summary Alibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at. The market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. ...

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Comment（30）

Huathuat87
·2021-05-10
?.. why is it still dip ?
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GCL08
·2021-05-05
It is an opp to buy for company with strong foundation. Buy the dip and hold long term
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Icetulip
·2021-05-05
Sounds convincing..
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- LuluDog:
  I think hold. Hahah
  2021-05-06
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- Icetulip:
  @LuluDog what You say?
  2021-05-05
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- Icetulip:
  @Luludog, What you think about this?
  2021-05-05
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kuehlapis
·2021-05-05
who will buy? [Bless] [Bless]
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dave21
·2021-05-04
Like n comment pls
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Goldox
·2021-05-04
Please comment. Thanks.
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- Goldox:
  Thanks!
  2021-05-05
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- alexteoh90:
  comment me
  2021-05-05
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- dave21:
  Like n comment too
  2021-05-04
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mokkie
·2021-05-04
I like Alibaba
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- dearpat:
  [Strong][Strong]
  2021-05-05
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Wallstrtbets
·2021-05-04
Good question.
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kittydana
·2021-05-04
huathuathuat
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Wins888
·2021-05-04
If afraid of US, buy HK listing
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Sam51
·2021-05-04
Pls like and comment tq
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Slee49
·2021-05-04
Keep it up[開心]
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RonaldSTH
·2021-05-04
China political clout acts against own Chinese companies. Alibaba might slide into oblivion in 5 years time.
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nctony
·2021-05-04
Not easy to hold Baba
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Slimsw
·2021-05-04
Good insights and fruit for thoughts.
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ProsPaddles
·2021-05-04
I have faith in alibaba! It will go to ?
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Tonofash
·2021-05-04
Long baba
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Ahvi
·2021-05-04
Good read!
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MajorJackpot
·2021-05-04
Disappointing
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MrsJune
·2021-05-04
??
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These fears are reasonable but likely overblown.If you take its growth at face value, Alibaba stock should more than double in the next 5 years.I generally trust Alibaba's accounting, but the corporate governance issue is thorny. The research I've done over the years has indicated to me that GDP growth has littl","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"translate_title":"5年后阿里巴巴-SW股票会在哪里？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at.\nThe market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. These fears are reasonable but likely overblown.\nIf you take its growth at face value, Alibaba stock should more than double in the next 5 years.\nAn ETF option for investors looking to play Chinese internet stocks.\n\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell?\nAlibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)has all the makings of a great story stock. The company has a charismatic billionaire founder, business operations focused on China's rapidly growing internet economy, and strong and growing cash flow. Yet amidst this, Alibaba has fallen from its peak of over $300 per share to under $240 per share as of my writing this. When you look at Alibaba's financial statements, the valuation immediately seems low compared to its explosive growth of revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Something has to give with the valuation, which in my mind offers up a couple of hypotheses regarding Alibaba.\nHypothesis 1:Alibaba stock is extremely undervalued.If you take Alibaba'sincome statementat face value, the growth in earnings is simply incredible. Then if you look at Alibaba'searnings estimatesfor the next couple of years, you see a stock that trades for around 21x current fiscal years' earnings and has earnings growth estimates of close to 20 percent annually. All else being equal, this implies a total return of nearly 25 percent annually for BABA shareholders. The market typically doesn't offer up softball pitches like this, especially in the current bull market, which forces us to consider hypothesis 2.\nHypothesis 2: Alibaba's accounting and/or corporate governance cannot be trusted and the stock is not undervalued.Chinese stocks in general have a poor reputation for accounting quality. A simple look at CCP statistics like GDP numbers or coronavirus case statistics tells you that their numbers are often implausible. This doesn't necessarily mean that Alibaba's books are problematic per se, but it does help explain the discount to Alibaba's apparent fair value. A two-sided discussion on Alibaba's accounting can be found inJulian Lin's recent Alibaba articleand in the comment section for said article.\nI generally trust Alibaba's accounting, but the corporate governance issue is thorny. The research I've done over the years has indicated to me that GDP growth has little to no correlation with stock market returns for any given country. Thestrongest correlation I could findwas the correlation between rule of law, property rights, and corporate governance on one hand and stock market returns on the other. For this reason, I do not recommend any investors to put money in emerging market ETFs as they consistently fail to hold up to my qualitative and quantitative tests. There are often great value plays to be found abroad, but buying indices tend to offer poor risk/reward. International high dividend yield funds like Vanguard's (VYMI) are another nice shortcut to find companies with good corporate governance. Cash payments are hard to fake, after all!\nThis is historically an issue when investing in Asian markets, as stock market returns have badly lagged GDP growth. Japanese companies are a good example of this issue, historically they paid little to no dividends and hoarded cash on their balance sheet. The companies often were run to benefit their employees and management rather than to benefit shareholders. This, combined with a very high starting valuation explained 30 years of sideways returns for the Nikkei. Things are changing in Japan, however, and Warren Buffett has made several large investments there. China has had similar growing pains with corporate governance but is getting better over time. Chinese companies arepaying out more of their earnings in dividends, which is an encouraging sign. I still wouldn't broadly invest in Chinese stocks, but there is value to be had if you're willing to dig. Chinese internet stocks are seeing rapid growth and strong profitability, which is a different tune than many commodity-driven emerging markets.\nIf Alibaba traded for 40x earnings I could easily point to the risks and say to toss the stock. What makes Alibaba so interesting is that it trades for a lower valuation than the average S&P 500 stock, but has Amazon-like revenue and earnings upside. BABA stock has thus been successful since being listed on US exchanges.\nData byYCharts\nWith this in mind, let's look at Alibaba's fundamentals and put a forecast on the stock.\nAlibaba Stock Forecast\nAlibaba is a very complex business. Unlike Amazon, which is basically one brand, Alibaba has a spiderweb of subsidiaries (a good starting point to get a handle on their subsidiaries is theirlatest earnings presentation). Having this level of complexity in a business makes it hard to analyze, but there is some good stuff in there. Cloud computing with 50 percent year over year revenue growth immediately stands out to me as something that could move the needle on Alibaba's overall results. I'll be completely honest, Alibaba's business is more complex than I have the ability to fully analyze. The issues with the Ant Group IPO and various antitrust issues with the CCP are also out of my core area of expertise.\nWhat I can do in the absence of any special expertise is to build a simple model using analyst consensus earnings estimates to put a price target on the stock. This gives us a yardstick that we can use. I can't necessarily quantify the political risk to Alibaba, but what I can quantify is the compensation that the share price is giving you for all known and unknown risks to the business. This, for Alibaba and any stock, is the earnings yield. If I have a stock I own like Altria (MO) that trades for about 10x earnings, then I know if I hold the stock for a year, the business is going to earn me 1/10th of my investment back. In Altria's case, most of this will be paid as a dividend, which is great. This earnings yield is the engine that drives successful investing in value stocks, which over the long run tend to outperform the market. In the case of a company like Tesla, you're paying over 150x earnings for the business, so you will need everything to go right at the business over the next 10 years to see a good return. Over the next year, anything can happen to the share price, but over a 5-10 year period, business fundamentals drive a greater and greater percentage of stock returns. This gets us to Alibaba.\nAlibaba trades for a little less than 21x earnings. This means if you hold Alibaba for 1 year you earn about 4.8 percent of your investment in earnings. If Alibaba paid a dividend, they could write you a check for this. Alibaba does not pay a dividend however but reinvests the money for more growth. This leads us to the second part of the model, which adjusts for earnings growth. One way to put a price target on the stock is to take the earnings estimates for 5 years out (if they exist), and then use the current price to earnings multiple on the stock. Only a few analysts have earnings estimates for Alibaba for 5 years out, but the average earnings estimate for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 is $24.48 per share. Put a 21x multiple on this and you get a price target of $514 per share. In this case, you'd make 2.2x your money in Alibaba stock. Alibaba has a history of beating analyst estimates quite handily as well, so it's possible that these estimates are too low and you'd see Alibaba earning $30+ per share, which could triple your money.\nThe question that you need to ask yourself is whether Alibaba's valuation is low enough to compensate for the main risks we see in the stock, which are antitrust issues, corporate governance, accounting, etc. At first glance, I think that there is enough compensation here for Alibaba shareholders. Since I personally lack expertise in China though, I bought the dip in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). The standard deviation on KWEB is about a third lower than it is on BABA stock, and I think the upside is similar. It's not a big holding for me, but the dip in Chinese internet stocks intrigues me, so I bought in. If you recall, I'm not a fan of emerging market stocks as part of an asset allocation plan, instead, this trade comes from my opinion on Chinese internet stocks being undervalued compared to the analyst consensus of what their earnings can be over the next 3-5 years.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":190777212,"gmtCreate":1620655247736,"gmtModify":1704346223722,"author":{"id":"3579599836328530","authorId":"3579599836328530","name":"Huathuat87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50cd378f23f09b49bc1ada52d9bf227","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579599836328530","authorIdStr":"3579599836328530"},"htmlText":"?.. why is it still dip ?","listText":"?.. why is it still dip ?","text":"?.. why is it still dip ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190777212","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":102148912,"gmtCreate":1620188373236,"gmtModify":1704339946359,"author":{"id":"3579045920422452","authorId":"3579045920422452","name":"GCL08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3433a6063e0b2ab82ed571a0790eb790","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579045920422452","authorIdStr":"3579045920422452"},"htmlText":"It is an opp to buy for company with strong foundation. Buy the dip and hold long term","listText":"It is an opp to buy for company with strong foundation. Buy the dip and hold long term","text":"It is an opp to buy for company with strong foundation. Buy the dip and hold long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102148912","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":102312513,"gmtCreate":1620177429232,"gmtModify":1704339748056,"author":{"id":"3582609932964041","authorId":"3582609932964041","name":"Icetulip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbb3f676e6531346e7b38ba8b333db3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582609932964041","authorIdStr":"3582609932964041"},"htmlText":"Sounds convincing..","listText":"Sounds convincing..","text":"Sounds convincing..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102312513","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4237073,"gmtCreate":1620266687348,"gmtModify":1680787218050,"authorId":3581546699205694,"author":{"id":3581546699205694,"idStr":"3581546699205694","authorId":3581546699205694,"name":"LuluDog","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3907b71bbdbc645cd47ba9a5e5798afe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":102312513,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I think hold. Hahah","text":"I think hold. Hahah","html":"I think hold. Hahah"},{"id":4226261,"gmtCreate":1620179271046,"gmtModify":1680787054296,"authorId":3582609932964041,"author":{"id":3582609932964041,"idStr":"3582609932964041","authorId":3582609932964041,"name":"Icetulip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbb3f676e6531346e7b38ba8b333db3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":102312513,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581546699205694\"> @LuluDog</a> what You say? ","text":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581546699205694\"> @LuluDog</a> what You say? ","html":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581546699205694\"> @LuluDog</a> what You say? "},{"id":4225987,"gmtCreate":1620178114446,"gmtModify":1680787042265,"authorId":3582609932964041,"author":{"id":3582609932964041,"idStr":"3582609932964041","authorId":3582609932964041,"name":"Icetulip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbb3f676e6531346e7b38ba8b333db3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":102312513,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"@Luludog, What you think about this?","text":"@Luludog, What you think about this?","html":"@Luludog, What you think about this?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":102979273,"gmtCreate":1620175265292,"gmtModify":1704339689148,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorIdStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"who will buy? [Bless]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"who will buy? [Bless]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"who will buy? [Bless] [Bless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102979273","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":106709897,"gmtCreate":1620142529919,"gmtModify":1704339300794,"author":{"id":"3575029983352498","authorId":"3575029983352498","name":"dave21","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47ccbd15314f126f07288aa2a5d952e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575029983352498","authorIdStr":"3575029983352498"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106709897","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":106473551,"gmtCreate":1620142044173,"gmtModify":1704339289823,"author":{"id":"3574248655626938","authorId":"3574248655626938","name":"Goldox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863110a9408a00f21e04f570ea1c03f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574248655626938","authorIdStr":"3574248655626938"},"htmlText":"Please comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106473551","repostId":1119027537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4230220,"gmtCreate":1620214242962,"gmtModify":1680787106928,"authorId":3574248655626938,"author":{"id":3574248655626938,"idStr":"3574248655626938","authorId":3574248655626938,"name":"Goldox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863110a9408a00f21e04f570ea1c03f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":106473551,"type":1,"supId":4221742,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks!","text":"Thanks!","html":"Thanks!"},{"id":4222198,"gmtCreate":1620145945181,"gmtModify":1680786984647,"authorId":3555506077280254,"author":{"id":3555506077280254,"idStr":"3555506077280254","authorId":3555506077280254,"name":"alexteoh90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0820705d37ed3954c9e6d6db9f611e25","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":106473551,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment 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