2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？

美港电讯2021-06-15

周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400...

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Justin_L
·2021-06-16
經常的啦
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-06-16
阿里巴巴，騰訊，美團現在大減價~真便宜，趕緊買進！
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4
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  Eat apple啦你
  2021-06-17
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- samsam12:
  eat banana啦你
  2021-06-16
  Reply
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Savage_Never
·2021-06-16
做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹
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2
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高明兴_8399
·2021-06-16
大家都跟風，自然就引起恐慌
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2
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haiwei183
·2021-06-16
跌了一點
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2
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感恩线
·2021-06-16
是要大漲嗎
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3
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- 高明兴_8399:
  想多了
  2021-06-16
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中长期投资者
·2021-06-16
[哇塞]
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3
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Sen001
·2021-06-16
求贊求評論
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5
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-06-16
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- 中长期投资者:
  [财迷]
  2021-06-16
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-06-16
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快乐玩美股
·2021-06-16
求贊求評論[鬼臉]
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4
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- haiwei183:
  好的
  2021-06-16
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- Sen001:
  ?
  2021-06-16
  Reply
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-06-16
  Reply
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我要Bonus
·2021-06-16
任務求贊求評論
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4
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-06-16
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我要Bonus
·2021-06-16
求贊，求評論。任務
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1
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Youn7276
·2021-06-16
任務！
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13
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- WZiYa:
  Good to know.
  2021-06-16
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- Sen001:
  ?
  2021-06-16
  Reply
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- ming_5868:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-16
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我就静静的看
·2021-06-16
任務
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- ming_5868:
  [微笑][财迷]
  2021-06-16
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Daphnez
·2021-06-16
週五就很刺激、最近手上有波動性大的股，感覺倉裏會上躥下跳[笑哭]
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2
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- LeonP:
  haha
  2021-06-16
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stroke
·2021-06-16
Tigers
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1
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Blkchnmst
·2021-06-15
[開心] [開心] [開心] [開心]
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2
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Blkchnmst
·2021-06-15
[開心] [開心] [開心] [開心]
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3
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海中霸王
·2021-06-15
這種指數期權，要正常平倉纔好吧。不然期權都變廢紙？
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80后期货小生
·2021-06-15
拭目以待看看能有什麼樣的大場面[齜牙] [齜牙] [齜牙]
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2
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黑燀
·2021-06-15
不懂??
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- EdwardLiu:
  ?
  2021-06-15
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Is the second \"Four Witches Day\" of the year terrible?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40563c8d493d69941af0011aadb94e9","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。\n\n金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。\n高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权。\n\n值得注意的是，执行价格接近标的资产价格的期权数量创下10年来最低，由于近期美股一直处于高位，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的股指现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n此外，据高盛估计，折式合成期权（combos）占标普500指数期权规模的15-20%，即调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远大于即将到期的单一股票期权的未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。\n这个“四巫日”之所以特别，一个重要原因是此前大盘波动率实在低得异常。高盛策略师指出标普500指数过去13个交易日的波动率仅为5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低。\n\n这一幕和1997年8月相似，当时标普500指数不断续刷新高，与此同时VIX指数却处于新低。\n\n大盘波动率极低，但诡异的是，个股却频频上演极端波动，例如AMC——虽然AMC上周名义成交量仅70亿美元/天，远低于亚马逊的1200亿美元/天，且远低于第一季度的峰值，但在所有个股中其合约成交量最高，期间可实现的成交量接近400%。\n分析指出，散户驱动了所有个股期权活动的很大比例，近期个股期权活动的增长主要集中在低价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量的份额与名义交易量不匹配。\n目前美股的多头伽玛头寸规模依然高企，野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘实际波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期的情况是危险的，即一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n\n高盛还指出，临近周五“四巫日”，美股期权交易量正在下降，这个反常现象出现主要是因为每周到期的短期期权正在变得火热，尤其是大受散户投资者欢迎。事实上，第三个周五到期的标普500指数期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，甚至小于每周一和周三到期期权交易量的百分比。\n\n超短期期权交易量增加的一个解释是散户对部分个股的热潮。高盛指出：\n\n “如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者看涨买入产生的短期gamma，他们可能会积极买入多头头寸，以抵消伽玛效应。”\n\n零对冲警告，一旦这个趋势变得普遍，大盘可能会面临剧烈波动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":169851858,"gmtCreate":1623829457074,"gmtModify":1703820720579,"author":{"id":"3501113550178595","authorId":"3501113550178595","name":"Justin_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4fc9cc59f9e5eff9a291919842f8f5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501113550178595","authorIdStr":"3501113550178595"},"htmlText":"經常的啦","listText":"經常的啦","text":"經常的啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169851858","repostId":1119444358,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":160578382,"gmtCreate":1623803222846,"gmtModify":1703819779161,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584867430360256","authorIdStr":"3584867430360256"},"htmlText":"阿里巴巴，騰訊，美團現在大減價~真便宜，趕緊買進！","listText":"阿里巴巴，騰訊，美團現在大減價~真便宜，趕緊買進！","text":"阿里巴巴，騰訊，美團現在大減價~真便宜，趕緊買進！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160578382","repostId":1119444358,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4833050,"gmtCreate":1623904317374,"gmtModify":1663229127966,"authorId":3584867430360256,"author":{"id":3584867430360256,"idStr":"3584867430360256","authorId":3584867430360256,"name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior 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