Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade

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Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade

Bloomberg2021-06-23

(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic. This slammed the brakes ...

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Ravic
·2021-06-23
Bump
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Luislo
·2021-06-23
Fed being as crucial as ever!
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Orez13
·2021-06-23
Subjectives
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kevinlaisq
·2021-06-23
Please comment and like
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1
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- JohnWL:
  Ok
  2021-06-23
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paxxie
·2021-06-23
like and comment
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1
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- kevinlaisq:
  pls response backk
  2021-06-23
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EY12
·2021-06-23
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1
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- EY12:
  hi
  2021-06-23
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Ak91
·2021-06-23
Lik n comment pls
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2
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- Ak91:
  Comment back pls
  2021-06-23
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Foreverhuat
·2021-06-23
Whats new?
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1
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yuyaangg
·2021-06-23
lol
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2
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Zacker
·2021-06-23
??
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ongyiren
·2021-06-23
T
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1
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sleepymoon
·2021-06-23
Like and comment
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4
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- Pplymm:
  Replied. pls like and reply back
  2021-06-23
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- JamesPang:
  please like and comment back
  2021-06-23
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- Rep:
  reply me back
  2021-06-23
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edamame
·2021-06-23
Reflation
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- pekss:
  Buy on correction
  2021-06-23
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If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. 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