Starbucks Stock: Good Buy Or Goodbye

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Starbucks Stock: Good Buy Or Goodbye

seekingalpha2021-03-23

Summary Starbucks weathered the pandemic well. The thesis for the stock is one of the most straightforward and least complicated I have ever encountered. Investment in the company comes down to its ...

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Comment（13）

Dan888
·2021-03-24
Yeah
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2
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- southpaw:
  good buy!
  2021-04-21
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JamesArthur
·2021-03-24
Everone needs a cup of starbucks [財迷] [開心]
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1
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littlecub
·2021-03-23
Good good
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2
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YCH888
·2021-03-23
Good buy
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2
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ll2
·2021-03-23
Bye to the coffee, hello to the free WiFi and spaces
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3
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- DHWY:
  I love coffee
  2021-03-25
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janelie
·2021-03-23
Goodbye
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3
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SANTANA
·2021-03-23
Goodbye
Reply
6
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tangtkh
·2021-03-23
Goog .like and leave coment.
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4
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- tangtkh:
  yes.
  2021-03-23
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- sushii:
  nice
  2021-03-23
  Reply
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YangLex
·2021-03-23
.
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2
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投资不是一两天
·2021-03-23
Bye bye
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4
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TheCrazyOne
·2021-03-23
Its a expensive but sticky lifestyle
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5
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- whitetea:
  [捂脸]
  2021-03-23
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JCKL488
·2021-03-23
Starbucks is not all about coffee. It’s also about real estate. It’s definitely a good buy for long term
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- littlecub:
  ????
  2021-03-23
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- Stormytw:
  byee byeeeee
  2021-03-23
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Sweatheart
·2021-03-23
Goodbye to their coffee
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7
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- CY_Ng:
  [财迷]
  2021-03-28
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- CY_Ng:
  good buy bah
  2021-03-25
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- Jacjacjacjac:
  [微笑]
  2021-03-23
  Reply
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Initially suffering a price plunge from the low $90 range, the stock bottomed out around $52 a share.\nDuring the worst days of the coronavirus, comps fell by 40%. Revenue dropped $3 billion YoY in FY 2020, yet today the stock trades about 16% higher than in the months prior to COVID-19.\nPerhaps the share price is warranted.\nConsider these facts: for the fifth year in a row, Starbucks was named the most valuable restaurant brand in the world. Fortune magazine ranks SBUX as the fifth most admired company in the world.\nPrior to the pandemic, SBUX had well over twice the sales of its largest rival, Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN).\nIn fact, the firm has no true competitor. The larger purveyors of coffee don’t provide the wide selection or quality products that characterize Starbuck’s offerings, while the smaller operators lack the scale advantages the company holds.\nOn average, SBUX opened two new stores every day since 1987. The increasing store count drove a seemingly inexorable growth in sales. In 2016, the firm recorded $21.3 billion in revenue. In FY 2019 that metric had increased to $26.5 billion. Those numbers served to drive the stock up over 500% in the last decade.\nWhile conducting my due diligence, it became apparent that the investment thesis for Starbucks is quite simple. The company’s sales stem from a 75% beverage and 20% food item mix. Along with the advantages I enumerated above, SBUX has a very strong balance sheet.\nThe only real question is, can this enormous company continue to grow at a rate that warrants the current share price?\nAn answer to that question may lie in the coronavirus crisis. Last year, 110,000 food service locations close dpermanently in the US. During that same period, Starbucks increased its store count by 1,404. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ announced plans to close 800 locations, 8% of its total store count in the US, in 2020.\nThe Primary Growth Drivers\nStarbucks now operates in 62 countries. Management plans to increase the current store base of over 32,000 stores to 55,000 by 2030. The company guides for 1,100 net new stores in 2021 with 1,050 of those in international markets. Over half of the new stores (600) are scheduled to open in China.\nThe firm has a 33% market share in the US, but it holds a mere 1% of the global portion of the market. While the enormous potential for overseas expansion is evident, SBUX also gains an edge through international operations via lower operating costs. In the most recent quarter, operating expenses overseas averaged 48% of revenue versus a 53.2% cut found in US stores. In 2020, the difference was even greater: international operating expenses were 51.9% of revenue as opposed to 57.4% of revenue in the US.\nManagement forecasts international comps will increase by 27.5% in 2021 while US comps are projected to grow 19.5%.\nStarbucks' emphasis on expanding in China is well founded. Aside from its enormous population, that nation’s middle class is set to increase from 430 million in 2019 to 780 million in 2025.\nWhile tea is the current beverage of choice for the average Chinese, coffee’s popularity is increasing at a rapid pace. Projections for coffee consumption in the country vary widely, but all reflect robust growth. For example,Mordor Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 10.15% in the coffee market from 2021 through 2025 while quoting the China Coffee Association’s claim of an annual 15% growth rate.\nMeanwhile, the International Coffee Organization has China’s current coffee consumption growth rate pegged at 20% per annum, which is more than 2% greater than the global increase.\nLast quarter, SBUX International hit $1.7 billion in sales with $900 million of that originating in China. With the company planning to add over 6,000 stores in that country over the next 5 years, that means a new Starbucks will be opened on average every 15 hours in the Middle Kingdom.\n\nI think it was a couple of years ago at our China Investor Conference that we talked about a longer-term goal of reaching 6,000 stores in China by the end of fiscal '22. We remain optimistic that we will achieve that number, and that does imply that following fiscal '21, we will see an acceleration in the pace of new unit development in China.\n\n\n -Patrick Grismer,CFO\n\nIn Q1 the company entered 15 new cities and opened nearly 160 stores in China, a 13% growth rate over the last 12 months. This is particularly impressive considering Starbucks suspended store openings for a period following the advent of the pandemic.\nUnder The Radar Growth Prospects\nPresent in 83 markets, Starbucks brick and mortar footprint is second only to McDonald’s among global restaurant chains. So how does a company with that wide of a geographic footprint readily reach a larger market?\nIn steps Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY) with a plan to distribute SBUX products in up to 190 countries. Initiated in the middle of 2018, the deal known as the Global Coffee Alliance provides Starbucks with a revenue stream outside of its store operations. In return, Nestle received perpetual rights to market Starbucks consumer packaged goods worldwide. The agreement excluded Ready-to-Drink products and the sale of items found within SBUX coffee shops.\nThroughout the company’s reports, Nestle points to Starbucks offerings as among its “high growth categories” of products.\nSource: Nestle Q4 2020 Presentation\nIn 2020, Nestle reported sales of CHF 2.7 billion for Starbucks goods (the CHF to USD exchange rate is 1.00 to 1.08). Considering Nestle had only introduced SBUX in 62 markets as of late 2020, that leaves a lengthy growth runway for the two.\nBecause Starbucks receives long-term licensing revenue from the relationship, Nestle serves as one more growth driver for the company.\n\nThe Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé has been a powerful partnership and I'm proud to say that for the first time ever, we finished calendar year 2020 as the number one coffee brand across the entire coffee category. Think about it, Starbucks is now the number one coffee brand ahead of all premium and mainstream choices.-Kevin Johnson,CEO, Nestle\n\nSBUX also has a quarter century long partnership with Pepsi (PEP) to distribute various products. In the last quarter, sales of the US Ready-to-Drink coffee products Pepsi markets for Starbucks increased by 18%.\nThe relationship with Pepsi has SBUX reigning as the #1 brand in at-home coffee. Last year, the company’s share in that category increased by 13%. This led to the company becoming the premium segment leader in China, with volume growth of 36% last year, as well as 25% growth in volume in the combined Europe/Middle East/ Africa region.\n\nWe continue to see very strong performance in our coffee business, and our partnership with Starbucks is more robust than ever.\n\n\n -Ramon Laguarta,CEO,Pepsi\n\nAlong with the Nestle and Pepsi partnerships, management seeks growth through additional initiatives. For example, Starbucks recently announced a nationwide rollout of Oatly oat milk beverages. Featured in Starbucks Iced Brown Sugar Oatmilk Shaken Espresso and its Honey Oatmilk Latte, the products are an effort to capitalize on the growing market for plant based foods. This serves to highlight the nimble nature of the company’s management team.\nA Shift In Store Makeup\nThe management of Starbucks has been criticized at times for habitually closing underperforming locations. In 2008, when Howard Schultz returned as the company’s CEO following a period of relative underperformance by the company, he instituted a five point program. One area of emphasis was to close stores with poor performance metrics.\nStarbucks plans to close as many as 400 company owned stores in the Americas in the next 18 months. Nonetheless, the net number of stores in the Americas will increase due to new openings.\nStarbucks emphasis is on stores that provide faster service, particularly those with a drive thru component.\nConsidering the store count continues to increase, and allowing for the fact that management’s growth strategy is now centered outside the US, I view the store closures as a positive.\nThe following quote byCFOPat Grismer sums up the strategy well.\n\n... we've been able to manage the closures much more efficiently than we originally anticipated.So with this new information, we were able to go back and take a look at the portfolio, along with insights we have into how the dense metro trade areas are performing and identify an incremental 200 store closures that would create shareholder value through our ability to capture sales transfer from the stores that are closing at nearby locations, while also reducing cash operating losses at underperforming stores, avoiding future CapEx that would otherwise have to spend to remodel some of these stores.\n\nSBUX Stock Price\nAs I type these words, the stock trades for $106.34 per share. The average 12 month price target of 28 analysts is $105.22. The price target of the 12 analysts rating the stock since release of the last quarterly results is $119.\nWhile the current P/E stands at 198.49, the forward P/E is 31.93x, and the PEG is 3.91.\nDividend And Debt\nSBUX has a strong balance sheet with over $5 billion in cash and a bit over $14.7 billion in long term debt.\nThe yield is currently 1.69%. The payout ratio is 63.35% and the five year dividend growth rate is 18.29%.\nIs Starbucks A Good Stock To Buy In 2021?\nStarbucks weathered the COVID crisis well. Testimony to its resilience lies in the recent bankruptcy of rival Luckin Coffee (OTCPK:LKNCY) and the fact that SBUX expanded its footprint while Dunkin closed a high single digit percentage of its US based stores.\nManagement projects a comp increase of 18% to 23% in 2021; however, that forecast is based on a return to full capacity in store dining by the end of this month. The company also expects adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $2.90.\nSBUX bulls are betting on a strong recovery of the economy following the COVID crisis as well as robust growth in store counts, particularly in the International arena.\nThis article provides a great deal of data indicating the company’s expansion efforts are likely to drive a strong growth in the stock’s price moving forward. The only negative I see is the current share price. As noted, management models EPS of $2.70 to $2.90 in 2021. This fails to match 2019’s EPS of $2.92 or 2018’s EPS of $3.24.\nThe peak share price in 2019 was around $95 per share while the stock topped out at roughly $68 a share in 2018. Coupled with the assessment above of the current valuation, I must ask myself if the stock’s price offers a margin of safety.\nConsequently, I rate SBUX as a HOLD.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":353717997,"gmtCreate":1616534852919,"gmtModify":1704795302120,"author":{"id":"3576913776725483","authorId":"3576913776725483","name":"Dan888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a1ccecc440b185ea25a22f7a7b878f2","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576913776725483","authorIdStr":"3576913776725483"},"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353717997","repostId":1128000162,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4086283,"gmtCreate":1618954865140,"gmtModify":1680784853398,"authorId":3574580396945416,"author":{"id":3574580396945416,"idStr":"3574580396945416","authorId":3574580396945416,"name":"southpaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a52c68e0b84d7f61c9d9ccf225bb2bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353717997,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good 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