To The Moon

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一般來說，利好還是利空要看它與大衆的預期，即投資入主觀傾向的關係。不論對整個大盤或個股而言，某個消息總是利多、利空並存，這些利多或利空因素並非可借某種“衡器”予以準確衡量，況且，有些此類因素屬潛在性質，可能發生，但未必一定發生，就算到時候果真發生，也未必真的那麼具有威力，可促成股價上揚或下跌。2005年1月份公佈印花稅降低的利好時，有些股民認爲沒有多少用。爲什麼他們覺得沒用呢？因爲這些股民認爲降低印花稅不能讓股市立即走好。雖然這是將政策利好與股市漲跌掛鉤起來的一種短視行爲，但由於大衆的預期並沒給股市注入積極的因素，股市也的確沒有立刻走出好的行情。 　　這樣利多或利空就要看投資人的主觀傾向。投資人彼此看法不同，所採用的方式互異，對股價造成的影響絕不亞於實質性的利好和利空，甚至常有出人意料的結果。比如，原先認爲應屬利空的消息可以促使股價下挫，到頭來，不但不見下挫，反而上揚，這就是看空的人比較少，而看多的人比較多。同樣道理，原先以爲將使股價上揚的利多．卻令股價不但不漲，反而下挫。另外，一項消息出臺，要看它與市場大衆的預期有多大落差。再好的消息，如果已經預期到了，也就不再是好消息。 　　預期主導着人們的心理活動。而人們的心理活動又左右着股價的變化，因此，散戶投資者一定要在分析是利好還是利空時，考慮到羣衆的心理傾向。

Let's get the US CPI index out of the way first ok. Jan 2023 CPI index came in marginally "higher" than Wall Street expectations CPI (all items) was 6.4% vs 6.2% expected. CPI (core); that is less food & energy was 5.6% vs 5.4% expected. One other thing to note is - Jan CPI report will take some time to analyze This is because there's a tweek in the methodology on how the index was derived & reported. Component like "shether" was revised with higher weighting. Components like "food", "energy" were revised with lower weightings. Whether the "revision" in the methodology is more "accurate & reflective" of the actual US economy is still up in the air ! Inflation came in with expectations, and that’s why market took it in stride. On the 0.1% higher than expectations da