特斯拉也能成为彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”？

金十数据2023-02-07

有分析师认为，从行业地位、库存水平和PEG来看，特斯拉开始显露出彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”的特征...彼得·林奇以识别 "十倍股"而闻名。他发明的PEG选股法，能够识别估值相对合理、成长较快的股票。本文将分析为何特斯拉已经显示出“十倍股”的关键特征。特斯拉目前PEG（市盈率/盈利增速）还比彼得·林奇理想的1倍还高一点。本文估计特斯拉的PEG在1.8倍左右，其独特的优势就是有力的证据。彼得林奇以挑选...

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嘞撸虎7
·2023-02-08
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  2023-02-08
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小可爱0958
·2023-02-08
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\"十倍股\"而闻名。他发明的PEG选股法，能够识别估值相对合理、成长较快的股票。本文将分析为何特斯拉已经显示出“十倍股”的关键特征。特斯拉目前PEG（市盈率/盈利增速）还比彼得·林奇理想的1倍还高一点。本文估计特斯拉的PEG在1.8倍左右，其独特的优势就是有力的证据。彼得林奇以挑选十倍股而闻名，他将股票分为缓慢增长型、困境反转型和快速增长型等六大类。林奇似乎颇为青睐快速增长型股票。这类股票年收益增长可达20%。林奇多次提到，投资者能从快速增长型股票中获取巨大收益。然而，这类股票本身的风险也比较大。本文估计特斯拉的PEG为1.8倍，另外还有以下独特优势：朝阳行业中的领军者。电动汽车行业未来几年甚至几十年还会快速成长，特斯拉正是其中的主导者。库存状况。库存水平是投资者轻而易举就能识别到的点（不幸的是，投资者往往会忽略）。库存是最可靠的财务数据之一（较少受到主观解释的影响），往往能反映出业务需求和健康状况。特斯拉的库存水平表明，其产品很受欢迎，尽管一直面临着各种挑战，特斯拉也能非常有效地管理其庞大的物流系统。估值合理。林奇的PEG选股法广为流传，他青睐PEG1倍左右的快速增长型股票。虽然特斯拉的PEG目前还在1倍以上，但也正在接近1倍。朝阳行业的巨头几年来，特斯拉的电动汽车生产和销售商一直领先全球。其他主要电动汽车制造商，如大众、通用汽车和丰田，近年来也一直在强化自身电动汽车的生产和销售，但与特斯拉相比还有好一段距离。从下图可以看出，特斯拉是妥妥的领导者，Model Y和Model X位列市场份额的前两名，远远甩开了第三名福特野马。展望未来，特斯拉应该能保持领先地位，诸多原因背后，规模和品牌吸引力最为重要。在制造规模方面，特斯拉已经实现了关键规模经济，与其他制造商相比，更具成本优势。特斯拉已经形成了强大的品牌形象，以其时尚和简约的设计俘获了大量的粉丝。同时，还不断推出超炫的功能，例如自动驾驶和空中升级技术，让粉丝保持好奇与期待。电动汽车市场份额（来源：electrek.co）库存控制上文提到，库存是投资者很容易观察到的方面，也是他们应该关注的重点，对快速增长型公司而言更是如此。库存是反映资源利用效率、客户满意度、现金流管理以及资产负债表管理的可靠指标。下图显示了特斯拉的库存水平，第一个表为美元绝对值，第二个表为库存周转天数，最后一个表为季度库存占销售收入的百分比。本文本文分析师认为，特斯拉的表现与林奇快速增长型企业的所有迹象相符。从第一张图可以看出，特斯拉的库存一直在迅速增加，最近一个季度达到128亿美元。然而，后面两幅图表明，特斯拉产品太受欢迎，需求强劲，库存周转天数和库存占销售额的百分比皆低于平均水平。第二幅图显示，特斯拉当前的库存周转天数徘徊在 57 天左右，远低于 79 天的历史平均水平。最后一幅图说明当前库存仅占销售额的 52.8% 左右，远低于 71% 的历史平均水平。总而言之，本文认为，上述表现足以说明，特斯拉发展健康，管理有效。面对挑战（例如防疫措施和全球供应链中断），特斯拉在客户满意度（合理的库存量）和现金流管理（没有过多的资金占用库存）之间取得了良好的平衡。（来源：Seeking Alpha data）估值与林奇的PEG比率前文提到，特斯拉目前的PEG还高于1倍。以下两张表展示的是本文基于某些假设对特斯拉目前PEG比率的预测。总而言之，本文认为特斯拉目前的PEG在1.8倍左右，虽然不是理想的1倍，但也可以成为十倍股，特斯拉独特的优势可以证明此观点的合理性。本文的PEG估计基于特斯拉远期市盈率倍数为47.9x。特斯拉的每股收益在过去5年中一直以58%的速度增长（在这种情况下，过去10年的增长率没有意义）。共识预测认为，未来几年，特斯拉每股收益年增长率将在18.8%至30%之间。复合年增长率约为25%，从而得出PEG约为1.92倍。别忘了，特斯拉目前账上有221 亿美元净现金，相当于每股约6.7 美元。因此，如果将现金考虑在内，特斯拉的市盈率会稍低（约为 46.3 倍，调整前为 47.9 倍）。因此，PEG 也有所降低（约 1.85 倍）。特斯拉业绩预测（来源：Seeking Alpha data）特斯拉PEG（来源：本文分析师）风险与总结除了PEG高于1倍外，投资特斯拉也有别的风险。电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧。特斯拉今天如此成功，很大程度上归功于其先发优势。特斯拉是最早进入电动车行业的公司之一，享有显著先发优势。然而，现在所有的主要车企，如大众、通用汽车和丰田等重量级企业，都在加紧电动汽车的生产。而特斯拉首席执行官马斯克鲜明的个性也有好有坏，他的所作所为时常受到媒体批评。最近，因为收购推特的事情，媒体觉得他太过分心。总的来说，本文分析师认为特斯拉已经显示出符合林奇快速增长型股票标准的迹象，既是朝阳行业的领军者，又有足以证明企业健康发展的库存水平。虽然特斯拉的PEG（本文估计1.8倍左右）没有1倍那么完美，但其领导地位和良好的品牌形象也足以证明其巨大的发展潜力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9955778326,"gmtCreate":1675811225466,"gmtModify":1675811229115,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955778326","repostId":1133479298,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105746025,"gmtCreate":1675814171998,"gmtModify":1675814175489,"authorId":3567334721242358,"author":{"id":3567334721242358,"idStr":"3567334721242358","authorId":3567334721242358,"name":"MyKhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f130b587a20deffeafc3a3dd2f3d5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9955778326,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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