Amazon And Apple Are Coiled Springs About To Explode To The Upside

seeking alpha2021-07-07

Summary Amazon and Apple have been left out of 2021's market rally underperforming the S&P index and their other tech conglomerate peers. An opportunity is being presented to investors as both Amazon...

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bernardtayet
·2021-09-02
I love apple. Believe in it
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Joces
·2021-07-27
Reply and like pls
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2
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Jasminephyo
·2021-07-19
Ok
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CTLT
·2021-07-14
Nice
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3
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Gail83
·2021-07-14
Year of opportunities...
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3
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- 21900VAHP:
  Everyday is a blessings and opportunities
  2021-07-18
  Reply
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Eddie318
·2021-07-14
Go go go
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1
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koolgal
·2021-07-14
Coiled springs have lots of latent energy, once loosen will unleash tremendous power. An apt analogy for Apple and Amazon!
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9
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eseah88
·2021-07-14
Buckle up, we going to take off
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2
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- TianLu:
  Oh yes go go go
  2021-07-14
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- OpenSesame88:
  go go go
  2021-07-14
  Reply
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RKT
·2021-07-14
[Miser] [Miser]
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4
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RichyRick
·2021-07-14
Wish it can sustain for long term
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- ToTheM00N:
  Yup
  2021-07-14
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Phyusin
·2021-07-14
Great
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4
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HAPPY128
·2021-07-13
Good
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3
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BuzzyBee3
·2021-07-13
Like pls
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- TradingVest:
  ok
  2021-07-13
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Meshaarias72
·2021-07-13
Better up and up
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- Phyusin:
  Hoping for that
  2021-07-14
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bt_wong316
·2021-07-13
Good
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- Meshaarias72:
  Y
  2021-07-13
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诗迷
·2021-07-13
Like and comment
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5
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- loti:
  ok
  2021-07-14
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Sriwonc
·2021-07-13
Lov Amazon
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tigernaut
·2021-07-11
?
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- Chiweii:
  ??
  2021-07-13
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- bt_wong316:
  Good job
  2021-07-13
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Over the past10 year","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09086":"华夏纳指-U","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","03086":"华夏纳指"},"translate_title":"亚马逊和苹果是即将爆发向上的螺旋弹簧","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon and Apple have been left out of 2021's market rally underperforming the S&P index and their other tech conglomerate peers.\nAn opportunity is being presented to investors as both Amazon and Apple are in the midst of record-breaking years from a financial standpoint.\nI am not worried about either Amazon or Apple being broken up as neither fit the premise of a monopoly.\nAs a shareholder, I would love to see Amazon do a stock split and Apple allocate more to its dividend than buybacks.\n\nWho would have thought that out of the big tech conglomerates, Amazon (AMZN) and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)would be the worst investments for the first half of 2021? AMZN has appreciated 7.35%, while AAPL is up 5.55% since the beginning of the year. Compared to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) (16.22%), Microsoft (MSFT) (25.71%), Facebook (FB) (31.10%), and Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL) (41.33%), shares of AMZN and AAPL are being left behind. AMZN and AAPL have barely contributed to the major indexes reaching all-time highs in 2021, and nothing they seem to do impresses the investment community. With the story of growth spilling over into 2021 and the latest short squeeze, sticking it to the hedge fund craze, I believe AMZN and AAPL's accomplishments are being overlooked.\nSometimes opportunities hide in plain sight. Access to information in 2021 is a 24/7 business as the headlines never stop. With so much focus on GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and SPACs, it's not surprising that investors overlook what is occurring with AMZN and AAPL. These companies are tech royalty and unleashed huge earnings beats in Q1 of 2021 while delivering record-breaking year-end results for 2020, yet the market shrugged it off. Over the years, big tech has delivered lucrative returns for shareholders, and I believe these investments still offer significant upside in the future. The music isn't stopping, AMZN and AAPL won't be left without a chair, and they will still be dominant forces for years to come. Going into Q2 earnings at the end of July, I believe picking up shares of AMZN or AAPL is an excellent play as we turn the quarter to the second half of 2021 and approach the holiday season.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAmazon continues to deliver even if its share price has traded sideways in 2021\nOver the years, AMZN's runway of growth has correlated to gigantic returns for shareholders. Over the past10 years, AMZN has increased by 1,582.31% while generating 389.72% in gains for the past five years. Compared to the rest of big tech and the S&P 500 Index, AMZN has underperformed, generating single-digit gains in 2021 while the S&P has exceeded 16% in appreciation. The market hasn't gotten the memo that AMZN's runway for growth isn't decreasing, and AMZN has become a true profit center adding to the bottom line and shareholder equity. On2/2/21, we learned that AMZN crossed the $100 billion revenue mark in Q4 2020 for the first time as they delivered $125.55 billion in revenue, an increase of 43.6% YoY, beating estimates by $5.82 billion. In Q4 2020, AMZN obliterated EPS estimates by $6.96 as they generated $14.09 in EPS. AMZN alsogenerated$6.87 billion in operating income and $31 billion in free cash flow (FCF) for 2020, increasing 20% YoY. AMZNfollowed upwith an explosive Q1 to start 2021, keeping their revenue above the $100 billion mark at $108.52 billion, increasing 43.7% YoY while beating estimates by $3.89 billion. Just like a great music album, the hits kept coming as AMZN generated $15.79 of EPS, operating cash flow increased to $67.2 billion, up 69% in the trailing twelve months (TTM). Its FCF increased to $26.4 billion in the TTM compared to $24.3 billion for the TTM that ended on 3/31/20.\nWhen I read throughAMZN's previous two quarters, I am baffled how their shares are trailing the S&P, at the very least. How the market isn't getting excited about this growth is ridiculous. Going back to Q1 2017, AMZN has increased its overall Q1 revenue by $72.80 billion, or 203.85%. Q1 sets the stage for the year, and AMZN is already starting off exceeding the $100 billion revenue mark. If AMZN was to see zero growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4, which is extremely unlikely, they would finish 2021 with $434.07 billion in revenue, an increase of 12.44% or $48.01 billion. Looking at AMZN's previous history, its average quarterly growth rate YoY in Q2, Q3, and Q4 exceeded 28%. If AMZN delivers revenue in the next three quarters 50% less than their average growth rates, it will finish 2021 with $465.96 billion in revenue. If their averages hold up, AMZN will come dangerously close to breaching $500 billion with $498.30 billion in revenue for 2021. AMZN generated $88.9 billion in revenue for Q2 of 2020, and it expects to deliver $110-$116 billion in revenue for Q2 of 2021. If AMZN comes in at $110 billion, that will increase by $21.1 billion (23.73%) YoY. AMZN will likely generate over $450 billion revenue for 2021 as on the low-end, it will have generated $208.52 billion for the first half of 2021 once Q2 earnings are released.\n\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Amazon)\nAMZN isn't just spending money for the sake of generating increased amounts of revenue; it's flowing to the bottom line. Since 2017, including the TTM for 2021, AMZN has increased its net income by $24.53 billion or 1,034.67%. The net income generated in Q1 2021 ($8.11 billion) is where things get interesting. For the entire year of 2020, AMZN generated $26.90 billion in net income. In Q1 of 2021, AMZN's net income didn't decrease from Q4 2020, and they generated $8.11 billion in net income, which was 30.13% of the total net income generated in 2020. AMZN is generating profits hand over fist and they are increasing QoQ. AMZN's growth engine is alive and well, as it is on track to generate almost all of 2020's net income in the first nine months of 2021, setting the stage for another record along with revenue generated. The market is overlooking these growth metrics, which is creating an opportunity for investors.\n(Source: Amazon)\nAs AMZN crushes earnings estimates and generates increased revenue and profits, I am not sure if people realize what's happening to AMZN's balance sheet. In the past three fiscal years of 2018, 2019, and 2020, AMZN's total equity has increased by $65.7 billion (237.09%) from $27.71 billion to $93.40 billion. In Q1 2021, total equity increased by $9.92 billion (10.62%) as it exceeded $103 billion. AMZN is firing on all cylinders, and its newfound revenue is paving the way for increased profits and total equity in AMZN. Why the market isn't celebrating this is perplexing, but eventually, the tide will turn, and I think Amazon will be right up there with Google and Facebook in 2021 returns.\nApple continues to establish new records and push the envelope of what companies can achieve\nLove them or hate them, Apple is an iconic American company with a cult-like following. AAPL users are some of the most loyal customers and often purchase several items throughout its ecosystem. It's hard to determine which is America's best company, but if we're going by market cap, AAPL wears the crown. Apple may not generate the most revenue as Amazon and Walmart(NYSE:WMT)exceed the revenue AAPL produces annually. AAPL may not have the best net income conversion ratio as MSFT and FB both have better ratios. AAPL builds products and develops services that engage their following and become integral to their everyday lives. This has allowed AAPL to generate the largest amount of profits of any company I know of. In 2020, AAPL generated $57.41 billion in net income, which was $43.9 billion more than WMT, yet WMT produced $559.15 billion in revenue from its operations. AAPL's $57.41 billion in net income was also $28.26 billion larger than FB, while FB converted the largest amount of net income from its revenue at a rate of 33.9% from the big tech conglomerates.\nThe only thing different about 2021 is AAPL's share price isn't appreciating. Since I thought AMZN was bad, I guess AAPL's price action is horrible. Over the past ten years,AAPLhas appreciated by 1,042.46% and 473.05% over the past five years. AAPL has made their shareholders very happy, from stock splits to buybacks, dividends, and price appreciation, but many have asked is the magic gone? I have written several articles on AAPL, and the number of negative comments about AAPL and its management team is mind-blowing. So who's correct, the bears or the bulls? Are AAPL's best days behind them, or are they just getting started? Only time will tell, but the way I interpret the data indicates AAPL's best days could be ahead of them.\nI believe investors have been given a gift as shares of AAPL have been unable to break out and form its next leg upward. Is AAPL too expensive, under $140? I don't believe so. The facts are AAPL's growth isn't stopping, and the 2021 fiscal year has been a home run even if the market is treating it like it just hit singles in Q1 and Q2. In the fiscal year 2020, which ends in September for AAPL, they generated $274.52 billion in revenue, $57.41 billion in net income, and delivered $3.31 in EPS. 2020 was a record year for AAPL in revenue and EPS while a close second in net income.\nSo what's going wrong in 2021, and why is AAPL treading water? Nothing is wrong as AAPL is firing on all cylinders, and it's unexplainable why shares have been left of 2021's market rally.In Q1 of the fiscal year 2021, AAPL posted record-breaking revenue with $111.4 billion, which increased 21% YoY, EPS of $1.68, up 36% YoY, and net income of $28.76 billion. InQ2 of the fiscal year 2021, AAPL generated $89.6 billion in revenue, EPS of $1.40, and net income of $23.63 billion. For the first six months of 2021, AAPL has delivered an increase of $44.29 billion (35.7%) in total revenue, $18.9 billion (56.44%) in net income, and $1.2 (62.83%) in EPS from its first six months of 2020. Putting that in perspective, AAPL has already delivered 61.33% of the total revenue, 91.25% of the total net income, and 93.96% of EPS in the first six months of operations compared to what was generated throughout the entire 2020 fiscal year. How hasn't this been in the headlines, and why are people consumed with GME, AMC, and straight-up speculation? What's Mr. Market going to do when AAPL delivers Q3 earnings on 7/29/21 (estimated), and they overwhelmingly exceed the amount of net income and EPS generated in 2020 in just nine months? If people want growth, look at AAPL's numbers. They're not producing these increases off of $1 billion revenue and $100 million net income. It's shocking but fine with me as I add shares before AAPL's next leg up.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nAs a shareholder of Amazon and Apple, this is what I wish they would do\nI am interested to see if the Seeking Alpha community agrees with me. I haven't been very vocal about this, but there are two things I wish AMZN and AAPL would do. I want AMZN to do a stock split. Yes, I understand that ten shares of a $1,000 stock and 100 shares of a $100 stock is the same amount of equity in a company. I also understand that if the $1,000 stock goes to $1,500 and the $100 stock goes to $150, both are a 50% increase, and an investor would generate the same return as both investments would be worth $15,000. I want AMZN to do a significant stock split so more people could afford to own shares of AMZN. If AMZN does a 40 for 1 split, the company still has the same valuation but shares now become affordable for many investors. A stock split doesn't matter for some shareholders, and they would reference what the price of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)shares have done, and Warren Buffett has never paid a dividend or split the shares. As AMZN has become one of the most iconic companies in America, I think it would be great if more investors could invest directly into AMZN without buying either fractional shares or an ETF where AMZN is one of the largest holdings. If AMZN did a large split, what would that do for the volume and price action of the stock? AAPL hasn't been shy about making its shares affordable for most investors, and I think AMZN should follow suit.\nI am moving on to AAPL, enough with the vast capital allocation to buybacks. AAPL's return of capital is second to none, and not a single company is as shareholder-friendly as AAPL. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has returned $550 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. I read many earnings reports, and there isn't a single company I know of that comes relatively close to these numbers. In Q2, the Board of Directors at AAPL authorized an increase of $90 billion to the existingshare repurchase program. I get it; AAPL wants to maintain a net-zero cash position and reward shareholders. AAPL generates so much free cash flow, operating income, and net income that it can fund their growth and any business endeavors they would like to embark on while still rewarding shareholders.\nSo what would I love to see AAPL do? I think it would be more beneficial to redirect a significant portion of capital allocated to buybacks to its dividend. In Q1 and Q2 of 2021, AAPL allocated $43 billion to buybacks and $7 billion to its dividend.AAPL's dividendis a whopping $0.88 per share, which is a 0.64% yield. AAPL's payout ratio is 17.06%, and can certainly afford to increase the dividend. In 2021's fiscal year, AAPL has paid $0.44 per share of its annual dividend, costing them $7 billion. AAPL has given back $50 billion of capital in 2021 to shareholders, $43 billion in buybacks, and $7 billion in dividends. As a shareholder, I would be so much happier if $28 billion was allocated to the dividend and $22 billion to buybacks over the first six months of the fiscal year 2021. Think about it; that would mean AAPL would have paid its shareholders $1.76 per share instead of $0.44. This would make the annual dividend $3.52 instead of $0.88. A dividend of $3.52 per share would put AAPL at a forward yield of roughly 2.57%.\nAAPL has more than enough firepower to make this happen. AAPL could even go to 3% without blinking. How much more enticing of an investment would AAPL be with a 3% dividend? I think putting a greater focus on the dividend would benefit existing shareholders more than focusing on buybacks. I am not saying buybacks are bad by any means, but I think it's time for AAPL to allocate more capital to its dividend. I am interested to know if you agree, so please comment below and let me know.\nI believe classifying Amazon or Apple as a monopoly is incorrect, and as a shareholder, I am not worried about either company being broken up\nI am not a lawyer, and I didn't go to law school, so this isn't legal advice. It's strictly my opinion.\nFirst, what is a monopoly? A company will be considered a monopoly if there is an absence of competition in the marketplace, leading to increased costs for the consumer for inferior products and services. For a company to be classified as a monopoly, it would need to have total or near-total control of a market while its product offerings dominate a sector or industry. When a company has become a monopoly, it can use its position to create unfair business advantages by fixing prices, creating artificial scarcities causing inflated prices, and stifle competition by eliminating new competitors and creating a market where consumers don't have a choice of products. When a company becomes a monopoly, the market it operates in becomes inefficient, unfair, and unequal to the consumers and other businesses. Now by that description of a monopoly, does AMZN or AAPL fit that description?\nHow is AMZN a monopoly? In the fiscal year of2020, AMZNgenerated $386.06 billion in revenue. $236.28 billion or 61% came from North America, excluding revenue from AWS. AMZN's success in 2020 didn't stop the following companies from generating large amounts of revenue as well:\n\nWalmart(WMT) $559.15 billion\nCostco(COST) $166.76 billion\nWalgreens(WBA) $139.54 billion\nThe Kroger Co.(KR) $132.5 billion\nThe Home Depot(HD) $132.11 billion\nTarget(TGT) $92.4 billion\nLowe's Companies(LOW) $89.6 billion\nDollar General(DG) $33.75 billion\nDollar Tree(DLTR) $25.51 billion\nMacy's(M) $17.35 billion\nEtc.\n\nThe National Retail Foundation publishes a list of the top100 retailersin the U.S. on an annual basis. The 2020 list equaled $3.3 trillion in combined revenue. WMT came in at the top spot with $523.96 billion, equivalent to 16.39% of the top 100's combined revenue. AMZN was the runner-up in second place with $250.5 billion of revenue, accounting for 7.8% of the entire top 100. Going strictly by the numbers, I am not seeing how AMZN could be considered a monopoly as there are many competitors, and AMZN does not have a controlling interest in the sector.\n\n(Source:AMZN)\nCould you consider AMZN a monopoly in shipping? I would say no, considering the United States Post Office, FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), and XPO Logistics (XPO) are all independent organizations that have not been put out of business by AMZN. In addition, companies such as WMT and TGT have enhanced their internal logistics to move products around the country quicker.\nHow about thecloud? Is AMZN a monopoly there? Going by the classification of a monopoly, I would have to say no; AMZN does not have a monopoly on cloud services. While they have the largest position with almost 1/3rd of the revenue, cloud infrastructure spending has increased QoQ sequentially since Q1 2018, and AMZN's market share has trended sideways. While AMZN's AWS revenue increases, their market share isn't, which means new business is also finding its way to companies such as MSFT, GOOGL, and Alibaba (BABA). Competition, provider options, and competitive pricing all occur in the cloud space as AMZN faces extensive competition from other tech giants with deep financial resources.\n\n(Source: Synergy Research Group)\n(Source: Canalys)\nWhat about AAPL? Could they be classified as a monopoly? This is a crazier theory than AMZN. There are three main hardware categories which include desktop, mobile, and tablets, where AAPL operates. AAPL has a 15.57% market share behind MSFT's 72.97% on a global stage fordesktop operating systems. Looking at theU.S.alone, AAPL has a 27.82% market share vs. 61.48% from MSFT. This stat will shock people as AAPL has 26.35% of theglobal mobile operating system market sharewith iOS through its phones while Android has more than 2/3rds with 72.83%. In theU.S.alone, AAPL does have 57.68% of the market share in mobile operating systems, followed by 42% from Android. Intablets, AAPL has 56.39% of the market compared to Androids 43.52% on a global scale, and the metrics are similar in theU.Sas AAPL has 57.74% of the market while Android has 42.17%.\nApple, Google, and Microsoft are global companies, and on a combined scale, 41.5% of theglobal operating systemsfall under Android, 30.57% with Microsoft, and 22.61% with Apple. In theU.S.alone, as its own segment, AAPL has 43.3% of the market while MSFT has 29.44% and GOOGL has 21.84%. Is this a monopoly? I wouldn't classify it as one. AAPL isn't price-fixing, and they certainly don't have an unfair advantage. Consumers have choices in the product offerings available to them, and there is healthy competition among AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL. The consumer market is speaking loudly that their preference is AAPL in some categories and not others. If AAPL was to hike up their prices by 25% or 50%, consumers would still have other options and could choose to leave the AAPL environment. AAPL has stayed competitive in its pricing methodology over the years, and I can't see how they could be considered a monopoly.\n\n(Source: StatCounter)\nI am sick and tired of hearing the words antitrust, monopoly, monopolistic, Amazon, and Apple used in the same sentences. Newsflash, Amazon and Apple are not lawmaking bodies and didn't write a single law in the United States. The United States government defined, created, and established the rules. Amazon and Apple hired specialists in the respective fields of accounting and law to navigate and operate within the established rules. If Amazon or Apple committed any wrongdoing, there are countermeasures as the IRS and SEC would investigate and bring charges forward. I am not a lawyer, but I can't see how anyone could prove AMZN or AAPL is a monopoly. As a shareholder, I am not worried about AAPL or AMZN being broken up.\nConclusion\nThe first six months are over for 2021, and earnings season is a couple of weeks away. I believe AMZN and AAPL present golden opportunities as they are underperforming the S&P index and the other tech conglomerates, including GOOGL, FB, and MSFT. AMZN and AAPL are on track to deliver record years across many financial metrics, yet Mr. Market hasn't been excited. I believe too much emphasis has been placed on MEME stocks, while many headlines are written to generate clicks. AMZN is on track to generate more than $450 billion in revenue for 2021, increasing $63.94 billion (16.56%) while significantly enlarging its net income and shareholder equity. 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