四十年最狂野的市场！这是索罗斯“亲密战友”的答案

华尔街见闻2021-02-08

“这是我见过的最狂野的市场！”近日，有“华尔街天才”之称的Stanley Druckenmiller，在与高盛对冲基金业务全球负责人Tony Pasquariello的一场精彩对话中，对眼下的市场情况作出了如下表述。几十年来，Druckenmiller被认为是全球最成功的宏观对冲基金经理之一。30年里，他创造了年均复合增长率30%的业绩，并且保持着投资生涯无负收益年份的记录。...

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谋远
·2021-02-10
信息不完整，暫不做評論，但對於中國經濟的觀察，外行的很：1、M2比GDP一直在趨勢上升之中，只不過接近臨界點而趨緩，並非改善，20年總體債務率上升了30%以上；2、資本收益率一直趨勢性下降，已接近或低於資金成本，這種雙螺旋糾纏是經濟效率下降的典型表現，存量資產質量不改善很難改變趨勢；3、固定資產投資也是呈下降趨勢的，淨投資量上的超越還需考慮債務率、收益率、資產泡沫、外匯管制等方面的綜合因素，以判斷增長的質量和可持續性。
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1
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边牧佩
·2021-02-10
真誠的
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大熊猫基地
·2021-02-10
說的都對
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低保大爷
·2021-02-09
永遠不要聽外國人說什麼，要看他們做什麼
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8
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猛逃
·2021-02-09
假洋鬼子媒體從哪挖掘出個索羅斯戰友[吃瓜]
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2
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超级主力
·2021-02-09
擼羊毛唄，講半天不就是霸權嗎？
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1
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应少侠
·2021-02-09
投資比特幣不如買區塊鏈相關的美股，明年豐水期到來還會再翻倍。中國不僅是最大的代工國家，也是規模最大的挖礦場所。資本家需要比特幣，比特幣離不開中國礦工。
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AustinZhang
·2021-02-09
Remember the old story but try the new gears
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山手
·2021-02-09
倒是很坦誠.
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1
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快乐和健康
·2021-02-09
深層次的透支，你沒看見。OK？
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- 天天天天涨停板:
  也许收了五毛[开心]
  2021-02-12
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- skyteethReplying to快乐和健康:
  哈哈是的
  2021-02-09
  Reply
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- skyteeth:
  不了解中国
  2021-02-09
  Reply
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HANDM
·2021-02-09
真誠
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- slsong:
  [强]
  2021-02-09
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RichWong
·2021-02-09
nice
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的总和。美联储在6周内购买的国债超过了伯南克/耶伦执政10年来购买的国债。由于美联储的货币政策，在危机爆发前，企业借款已经从6万亿美元增加到10万亿美元，而在经济衰退时，企业借款几乎总是会减少，但今年企业借款增加了4000亿美元。作为对比，全球金融危机期间企业借款减少了5000亿美元。把美国的政策放在全球背景下，更是令人吃惊，Druckenmiller指出：2018年以来，美国M2比名义GDP增长了25%，也就是流动性增加25%。在中国，M2与名义GDP之比与3年前持平。因此，中国没有从他们的未来那里透支任何东西，我们有大量的流动性投入，坦率地说，投资却很少，主要是转移支付和美联储刺激。我们对病毒做了可怕的处理，而中国和整个亚洲基本上都战胜了病毒。02、做空美债、美元，做多商品在访谈中，Pasquariello问及，如果只能选择一项明年能提供最好机会的资产，Druckenmiller会选什么？Druckenmiller表示，这不是他玩游戏的方式。他认为，目前最主要的投资主题是通胀相对于政策制定者的想法。但由于政策制定者的反应可能会根据疫苗效果的不同而有所不同，因此最好是有一个投资矩阵。Druckenmiller透露了他的部分持仓：为了应对通货再膨胀， 做空长期美债。在大宗商品领域拥有大量头寸。因为美联储试图压低利率的时间越长，在大宗商品领域的胜券就越多。做空美元。由于美国政策与亚洲政策的反差，所以“非常非常”看空美元。03、成长股面临挑战，大型科技股还能再涨Pasquariello问及Druckenmiller对股票的看法，尤其是对科技股的看法，包括大型科技股、云计算公司和一些小型成长股。对于成长股，Druckenmiller的看法较为谨慎，他认为，从估值和债券市场的情况来看，未来5年成长型股票将处于一个非常、非常充满挑战的环境中：如果美国几年后出现4-5%的通胀，债券收益率急剧上升，从历史上看，成长型股票相对于其他股票来说是非常负面的。另一方面，与2000年的比较是荒谬的。荒谬的原因，当时我们有一个双重打击，不仅处于高估值的狂热之中，而且收益也即将结束，因为那些公司当时快速增长都是由于在建互联网本身，随着互联网建设完成，就无法继续产生收益。对于那些已经发展成熟的大型科技股，Druckenmiller依然乐观：过去2-3个月里，在科技领域，亚马逊和微软一直表现不佳。但它们并没有被高估，如果美联储继续在友好方面挑战极限，我并不担心这些股票，事实上，它们可能会继续上涨。04、亚洲已经走出疫情，成为大赢家Druckenmiller十分看好亚洲投资前景，同时持有中国、日本和韩国资产。今年以来这些地区开局良好，Druckenmiller指出，在美国拼命透支未来的时候，亚洲已经走出疫情，成为大赢家：在科技领域，随着英特尔缴械投降，亚洲拥有了代工和内存，在机器人领域也领先。我认为未来5年亚洲看起来比美国好多了, 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