民生宏观：两会的六大看点

宏观亮语2021-03-03

核心观点今年两会有6大看点，分别是;一、经济增长目标会取消吗？二、财政赤字率会是多少？三、货币政策会是什么基调？四、如何稳出口、促消费？五、疫情应对方面会有什么新措施六、“碳中和”方面会有什么作为？风险提示：疫情不确定性、美债利率快速上行、通胀上行超预期等。正文一、经济增长目标会取消吗？设置GDP增长目标容易对全年经济运行造成扰动。由于新冠疫情的原因，去年GDP基数明显偏低，为今年GDP增速带来...

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Comment（6）

Savage_Never
·2021-03-03
做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹
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2
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- 云里梦里飞:
  赞一个同求
  2021-03-04
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WayneChen
·2021-03-03
?
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1
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haiwei183
·2021-03-03
看六點
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- heng5644:
  什么六点?
  2021-03-03
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longLong
·2021-03-03
哪位課代表幫忙解釋下[流淚]
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3
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- longLong:
  没有人吗 [笑哭]
  2021-03-04
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鸟语花香在坡县
·2021-03-03
期待中
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Yolotomoon
·2021-03-03
嗯
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- Yolotomoon:
  型
  2021-03-07
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- Yolotomoon:
  6
  2021-03-04
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- Yolotomoon:
  优秀
  2021-03-04
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年前实现无碳发电，在2050年之前达到碳净零排放，实现100%的清洁能源经济。中国方面对绿色环保同样重视，总书记提出了我国争取在2060年前实现碳中和的目标。在去年12月召开的气候峰会上，我国明确了具体的量化目标，即到2030年单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降65%以上。“做好碳达峰、碳中和工作”被列为2021年的重点任务。光伏产业迎来较大机会。当前我国发电能源结构中，非化石能源占比仅为35%，而根据清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院的研究，为实现2060年碳中和目标，2050年，非化石能源发电占比需提升至90%以上。随着光伏和风电平价上网的实现，清洁能源发电成本大幅下降，未来还有进一步下降空间。我们预计未来十年光伏和风电年均新增装机量有望持续提升，对上游的铜、硅等产业均有较大拉动。新能源车迎来发展机遇。在“碳中和”背景下新能源车同样迎来发展机遇，发展新能源车不仅有助于环保，还能降低对原油的依赖，并且随着动力电池技术发展，特别是固态电池技术的升级，新能源车续航力较过去有很大提升，未来仍有提升空间，未来新能源车无论是动力成本还是续航力均有可能超过传统燃油车。工信部曾规划过我国新能源车未来的渗透率提升路线图，即混动新车到2025年占传统能源车的50%以上，2030年占75%以上，2035年达到100%；新能源汽车到2025年占汽车总销量的20%左右，2030年占30%以上，2035年占50%以上。同时，氢能车的发展将进一步加速，到2035年，氢燃料电池汽车保有量达100万辆，商用车实现氢动力转型。受益于新能源车渗透率潜在的提升空间，未来有很多相关产业均有可能受益。第一个是新能源整车产业；第二个是动力电池产业；第三个是车联网产业，去年下半年以来汽车芯片订单饱满，体现了其强大的市场需求；第四个是有色金属产业，包括镍、锂、钴、稀土等，由于动力电池需求量大，带动相关上游原材料订单。风险提示：疫情不确定性、美债利率快速上行、通胀上行超预期等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":364085564,"gmtCreate":1614785434058,"gmtModify":1704775269759,"author":{"id":"3572046493348009","authorId":"3572046493348009","name":"Savage_Never","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c5d3c6800ec12c32423a3100658845","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572046493348009","authorIdStr":"3572046493348009"},"htmlText":"做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹","listText":"做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹","text":"做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364085564","repostId":1143582926,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3709448,"gmtCreate":1614816227308,"gmtModify":1680779059874,"authorId":3568431359478653,"author":{"id":3568431359478653,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorId":3568431359478653,"name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364085564,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞一个 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