中国最容易孕育优质资产，最美四月天将在股市实现

格隆汇2021-04-08

一季度行情惨淡收官，不堪回首，唯有把希望寄托于接下来的日子。4月开局，股市又会如何演绎？清明节后第一个交易日，A股仍然没多大起色，上证指数跌0.04%，深成指跌0.28%，创业板跌0.72%，全日总成交额6600亿，比起高峰期2万亿，何止腰斩。板块和概念方面，除了因为隆基股份宣布进入氢能源，带动相关概念股一起上涨意外，其他板块基本都是波澜不惊，所谓的核心资产，像白酒、高科技板块，没能延续节前的升势...

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Comment（23）

撬起地球的杠杆
·2021-04-12
意淫
Reply
1
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光照的果
·2021-04-08
**文又在推送了，吐
Reply
2
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起点华尔街
·2021-04-08
WQNMLGB
Reply
1
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阿美力加
·2021-04-08
WQNMLGB
Reply
2
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shmeng
·2021-04-08
@客服請不要推送該公衆號文章給我，謝謝。
Reply
7
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TonyQX
·2021-04-08
08年到現在的熊市什麼時候結束，人家美股標普500在2011年就漲回去了，A股2021年了還處於腰斬地步。
Reply
4
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恒跌
·2021-04-08
大保健市場，A股你看看看就行
Reply
1
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简单就好没错
·2021-04-08
還是用戶們人間清醒，誰還會被這種文章帶節奏
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4
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简单就好没错
·2021-04-08
空洞無物沒營養
Reply
3
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Luv
·2021-04-08
最近天天推這種文章，這是要收割的節奏嗎
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- 弥財:
  明白人
  2021-04-09
  Reply
  Report
- 股民7160:
  明白人
  2021-04-08
  Reply
  Report
TTYY2011
·2021-04-08
這是放屁嗎？
Reply
3
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天上的一片云
·2021-04-08
混稿費嗎？
Reply
1
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天上的一片云
·2021-04-08
睜眼說瞎話，胡說八道，好玩嗎？
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可爱小发发
·2021-04-08
能不能別給我推格隆匯的文章了，每次都是說美股不行，大A獨美. 你當我們這些從大A走出來的人還會回去？
Reply
5
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猛逃
·2021-04-08
信口開河，張口就來[捂嘴] [摳鼻] [生病] [弱]
Reply
2
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开心唠唠虎
·2021-04-08
小編你瞎編什麼！要改成A股和港股最容易得憂鬱症了，年初港股還行，被大陸同化了！
Reply
2
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倪哥必四
·2021-04-08
吹牛逼還是在行
Reply
1
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迷津
·2021-04-08
最容易孕育優質資產，笑死我了。
Reply
6
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Fold Replies
- 简单就好没错:
  当个笑话看看就好
  2021-04-08
  Reply
  Report
姗姗来迟921
·2021-04-08
最容易孕育韭菜經濟形勢什麼樣了沒點數
Reply
9
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- 弥財:
  靠统计数据自嗨呗
  2021-04-09
  Reply
  Report
- 萎莱:
  这意思就是不要把钱往国外送，要给国家多送
  2021-04-08
  Reply
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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/458139><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一季度行情惨淡收官，不堪回首，唯有把希望寄托于接下来的日子。4月开局，股市又会如何演绎？清明节后第一个交易日，A股仍然没多大起色，上证指数跌0.04%，深成指跌0.28%，创业板跌0.72%，全日总成交额6600亿，比起高峰期2万亿，何止腰斩。板块和概念方面，除了因为隆基股份宣布进入氢能源，带动相关概念股一起上涨意外，其他板块基本都是波澜不惊，所谓的核心资产，像白酒、高科技板块，没能延续节前的升势...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/458139\">Source 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market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a687caf2d4425d66b29920d518a476","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"一季度行情惨淡收官，不堪回首，唯有把希望寄托于接下来的日子。4月开局，股市又会如何演绎？清明节后第一个交易日，A股仍然没多大起色，上证指数跌0.04%，深成指跌0.28%，创业板跌0.72%，全日总成交额6600亿，比起高峰期2万亿，何止腰斩。板块和概念方面，除了因为隆基股份宣布进入氢能源，带动相关概念股一起上涨意外，其他板块基本都是波澜不惊，所谓的核心资产，像白酒、高科技板块，没能延续节前的升势，茅台收跌1.66%，中小票方面，被炒作的旅游股也都纷纷回落。周三，A股仍然延续低迷，上证开盘下跌，最低下探至3453点，跌幅0.85%，不过尾盘有拉升的迹象，最终微跌0.1%，深成指和创业板则分别下跌0.74%、0.86%，A股总成交额7397亿，较前一交易有所上升，但白酒饮料依然低迷，位列跌幅榜前列，钢铁、航运概念由于业绩利好，成为上涨最大的板块之一。周三，也是港股节后第一个交易日，同样开盘即下跌，而随着腾讯、阿里巴巴两大重磅股的下跌，尾盘没能跟随A股拉升，最终收跌0.91%，成交量1710亿。由此看来，4月份的开局，并没有惊喜。2经历了过去一个多月的跌势，不少人都已经麻木，现在可以说到了人心思涨时刻，但是理想丰满，现实骨感，环顾当前的形势，也确实很难找得到强劲的上涨理由。原因嘛，也都说过好多遍了。宏观上，流动性收紧是大趋势，尽管美联储还死守口风，但实情是，土耳其、巴西、俄罗斯这样的新兴市场国家已经扛不住，先行加息了，即使是美联储自己，也放风说有可能减少买债规模，以测试市场反应，10年期美债收益率的持续高位就更不用说了。有人就把昨天A股的低迷归因于市场预期中国会进一步收紧信贷，这也并非空穴来风。今年两会，总理将今年的GDP增速设为6%，通胀是3%，而且说明货币增速要和GDP、通胀相匹配，这就意味着今年全年的M2增速在9%左右，但是1月、2月的增速都超预期，分别达到9.4%、10.1%，如果3月份继续超过9%，那也就意味着未来的Q2、Q3、Q4的均值必须在9%以下，用脚趾头都能看出来，虽说货币政策强力转弯的事不太可能发生，但时不时出来敲打一下市场，也够呛的。股市就是货币的晴雨表，水涨船高，水落船落，而且不需要等到真的收紧的那一天，只要一个预期，就足矣。所以，如果市场预期还在流动性收紧，那股市的低迷、交易量萎缩大概率还得维持一段时间。微观上，代表核心资产的股票的估值仍然在高位，茅台PE（TTM）超过55倍，代表下一轮产业方向的新能源就更不用说了，比亚迪PE（TTM）115倍，宁德时代（TTM）165倍，赣锋锂业111倍。都说买入股票的原则是三好--好生意、好公司、好价格，现在这个阶段，好生意、好公司是有的，而且不少，只是价格嘛，还很难说得上好，估值没有跌到有吸引力的位置，自然很难吸引资金再去抱团，没有抱团资金，就那点游资和散户倒来倒去，很难倒出什么来。所以，现在股市的总体情况是，要流动性，他流动性不多，要价格便宜，他说不上便宜，行情反复牛皮也就顺理成章了。3不过，从全球宏观经济层面看，也没必要过分悲观。首先，随着疫苗的普及，全球正逐步从新冠疫情中脱身，经济社会活动也在全面加速恢复，所以实体经济肯定是持续向好的，尽管流动性收紧对股市不是好新闻，但另一面，乐观地说，这正表明实体经济已经好转，可以从“ICU”出院了。根据IMF的预计，全球主要的经济体，今年的GDP增速都超过3%，美国达到6.4%，中国更高达8.4%。实体经济持续复苏，不管是V型，还是U型，对于股市都会多了一层意义，使得高估值得以逐步消化，让股市逐步筑底企稳，也让股价显得更有吸引力，尤其在已经调整了快两个月的现在。其次，全球正开启新一轮的科技革命，以新能源、5G为主引擎，具体表现为新能源汽车、智能化系统、光伏发电、碳达峰、碳中和，每一个都是触及万亿美元级别的大行业，这些新的引擎将为全球经济源源不断提供增长动力，并且会一直持续数十年。所以相比存量博弈互撕的死循环，新产业、新增量的曙光已经初现，谁能最早最快拥抱这些新型产业，谁就赢得未来。即使买贵了，只要能熬，也总归会熬出头。这也可以解释为什么一些新能源股票，股价也好，估值也罢，都很难回归到之前的低位，这就像坐高铁，及早上车很重要，大不了在车上辛苦挤一挤，如果受不了挤而下车，以后可能就很难重新上车了。第三，全球都面临的“资产荒”，因为优质的资产并不多，而股市是盛产优质资产最多的场所之一，资金可以暂时不进入股市，但中长期上看，迟早还是会回来，因为无处可去。从资产荒角度上讲，中国市场本身是有吸引力的，中国的国债收益率、银行利率水平都要显著高于国外主要市场，外资抢滩中国已是既定事实。而且，相比于一些国内市场狭小的发达国家，即使有好产品，也要花心思花力气求助于国际市场，否则赚不到大钱，相反拥有14亿消费人口的中国市场，只要产品足够好，价格有竞争力，单单做好国内生意，就已经可以赚得盘满钵满，如果算上出海攻下国外市场，那更加前途无量。换句话说，中国更容易孕育出体型庞大的上市公司，这才是中国和中国资本市场给全球投资者的红利。近年来，A股资金拼命抱团消费和高科技，也可以从中找到答案，因为有中国市场做保障，消费股简单易懂、底盘坚实、赚钱能力足够强、安全边际足够高，科技股则高速成长，容易一飞冲天。44月天，通常是上市公司陆续交出上年成绩单的时候，对于基金公司和基金经理而言，也正好籍着这个时机春耕播种，调仓、布局、增持、减持。不少基金公司四处调研，网红易方达张坤，还有睿远、富国、中欧等明星基金公司，正正说明这一点。而且，不要忽略一种重要的细节，那就是今年Q1股市火爆期，各大基金公司“疯狂敛财”。截至3月28日，今年共成立422只新基金，合计募资规模1.07万亿元，吊打2015年、2019年和2020年的全年新发基金规模。更重要的是，这些新发基金80%是偏股型，这些钱都进入股市了吗？我看未必，这也就意味着，主力们可能并没有我们想象中“弹尽粮绝”，相反，他们手中大概率仍然“粮草充足”，只差一个好的入场时机而已。可能有人说很多基金净值都出现下跌，基民损失惨重，基金公司即使有粮草，也拿去自救了。这个真得区分时间和人群，必须肯定的是，相对去年高峰期，基金净值下跌太正常了，因为股市本身已经高位回调，但是相对更早的时间节点，基金公司仍然是赚钱的，而且赚得不是小钱，同样的，如果比较早购买基金的投资者，相信收益仍然是正的，只不过相对高峰期，赚少了点。当然，后期进入的，特别是2月份高位接盘的，那确实无话可说，公众过分关注这部分人，大概率只是因为有新闻效应而已。回到股市本身，从春节到清明，满打满算一个多月，股市也足足跌了一个多月，前文我们说过一个逻辑，不管多久，资金总是会回来，问题只是在于什么时候回来？在我看来，资金的大规模回归，就等两个“消除”，一是流动性收紧预期消除，另一个则是高估值泡沫消除，而回归的主线，除了顺周期、低估值，当然也少不了消费“茅”、科技“茅”。现在，不能说这两个消除都已经实现，也不能说人间最美四月天，正在股市上演，只能说不失为一个播种时机。因为等到秋收，或会突然发现，自己也曾经处在这样的四月天，只是当时已惘然。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":342284878,"gmtCreate":1618222244294,"gmtModify":1704707690683,"author":{"id":"3498933614824687","authorId":"3498933614824687","name":"撬起地球的杠杆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c7e9411655a349b7ccecdf3ba96d40","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3498933614824687","authorIdStr":"3498933614824687"},"htmlText":"意淫","listText":"意淫","text":"意淫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342284878","repostId":1147243460,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348068546,"gmtCreate":1617869928485,"gmtModify":1704704154273,"author":{"id":"3475144693742650","authorId":"3475144693742650","name":"光照的果","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475144693742650","authorIdStr":"3475144693742650"},"htmlText":"**文又在推送了，吐","listText":"**文又在推送了，吐","text":"**文又在推送了，吐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348068546","repostId":1147243460,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348069898,"gmtCreate":1617869672514,"gmtModify":1704704150553,"author":{"id":"3553111355705817","authorId":"3553111355705817","name":"起点华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96ea820de1d9156e739f7f75bdd660b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch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