Meta Platforms is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after market close on Wednesday, July 27th.
A consensus of analysts estimates the company will earn $2.56 per share on $29.01B in revenue.
Previous Quarter Review
Meta's profit soundly beat Wall Street targets at $2.72 per share for the first quarter, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.56, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The earning beats were tempered by Meta recording its slowest revenue growth in a decade.
Facebook daily active users were 1.96 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of 1.95 billion. Monthly active users came in at 2.94 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 30 million.
Total revenue, the bulk of which comes from ad sales, rose 7% to $27.91 billion in the first quarter, but missed analysts' estimates of $28.20 billion.
Meta's Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline YoY
The market expects Meta Platforms to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2022. The company has mentioned that Q2 sales projections were on the lower side ($28b to $30b), which would represent a YoY decline for the very first time in Meta's history.
This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
Slowing Growth in Ad Revenue
Meta's ability to generate sales through advertising on its platforms has cemented the company as one of the largest tech powerhouses in the world today. However, many questions are being asked about the slowing growth in such metrics.
While we see the clear exponential growth in the earlier years, we're also starting to see slowing growth in ad revenue and total sales in the later years. This is largely due to slowing user growth which may have arisen due to intense competition in the industry, or other possible concerns. The fall-off in growth has raised many eyebrows, with analysts downgrading the stock as it no longer seems to be a good value play in the long term.
Besides, the intensifying geopolitical situations, such as the Ukraine war and the raging inflationary environment also impacted Meta's advertising business. These challenges might explain the recent weak revenue growth rate of 7% year over year in the first quarter of 2022.
Considering the previous user growth rates that Meta was at, this social media company is bound to see a fall-off - and it's not just the fact that there are competitors gaining market share, but also because there's an absolute limit to how far we can go in terms of user growth, because they're only that many people (with internet access) in the world. Meta has grown to a point where it has almost 2 billion daily users on the Facebook platform.
For some reference, there is an estimated total of 5 billion people in the world who use the internet today, which means that 40% of the internet-using global population are on Facebook every day. As such, the company or its platforms are not "dead" by any means, and to say that slowing user growth means that investing in Meta is a bad decision is rather myopic. Another important metric we could consider is the average revenue per user (ARPU), which can definitely be maximized to get the company's revenue back on track.
We see that the ARPU is still on a steady rise. In other words, the company is earning more from each user, though we may be seeing slowing growth in total sales due to a decline in users. With appropriate steps taken in the direction of research and innovation, Meta could stay on track and gain more in sales despite the slowing user growth. However, whether Meta can do this is a question that remains unanswered. We'll go deeper into this as we progress through the article.
Uncertainty From Strategic Decision on the Metaverse
Another concern for investors is Meta's strategic decision to bet the ship on the metaverse. In theory, the shift makes perfect sense. After all, there seems to be no limit to the potential of the metaverse, which, if successful, will create a whole new income stream for the company. Management is betting heavily on this young venture, investing more than $10 billion alone in 2021.
But make no mistake: Meta's bet on the metaverse remains a moonshot. Nobody knows how this industry will evolve or the company's role in this new industry. Moreover, while Meta can afford to spend heavily -- thanks to the profitability of its advertising business -- it is far from certain that these investments will create value for shareholders in the long run. Worse, this new venture could take too much of management's attention, causing them to neglect the existing golden goose.
One of the biggest talking points about Meta is its huge investment in the metaverse. For those of you who don't exactly know what the metaverse is, it is a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection".
So, how does Meta plan to be involved? Meta has invested a massive $10b into the metaverse, and it turns out that Mark Zuckerberg has an entire line of projects planned out as he believes that it will be a huge part of our lives in the future.
Horizon Worlds is Meta's virtual reality (VR) social platform, and it functions as a virtual world where users are able to carry out daily activities such as interacting with people, attending meetings, commerce etc. with the help of the Quest VR headset. Meta intends to continue improving the platform by introducing more features and regulating inappropriate actions so that Horizon Worlds eventually becomes a safe space detached from reality where people are able to do things seamlessly in an interactive and customizable virtual world. In February 2022 this year, the platform hit 300000 users, which is a tenfold increase compared to the same number three months prior to that. In addition, Meta plans to release this platform for mobile phone users.
Analyst Opinions
A consensus of analysts expects Meta to earn $2.56 per share on $29.01B in revenue for the second quarter.
According to Zacks Consensus Estimate, This social media company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.51 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -30.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $28.92 billion, down 0.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju maintained Meta Platforms with an Outperform rating and cut the price target from $273 to $245.
His checks indicate an in-line Q2, with growth expectations for the second half of 2022 moving lower on the macro backdrop, with flattish quarter-over-quarter budget growth from Q2 to Q3.