Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?

seekingalpha2021-08-05

Summary In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year. Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...

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LimLS
·2021-08-06
In terms of its financial health, sales forecast, roadmap for the future, all are excellent. Definitely a good buy and hold for the future. For long term holders, current price is ok. But for those who seek for more safety margin, can always wait for a dip. For those who afraid the dip might never come but still prefer safety, just buy a small position and then wait for dip to add more
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KwLau
·2021-08-05
Good opportunity to add to position should it continue to drop.
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2
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TaiWoeiHaur
·2021-08-05
Pls like
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2
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MajorJackpot
·2021-08-05
Wait n see first
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2
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winsolutions
·2021-08-05
Is still a rock solid stock, but the stock price will likely hold steady I guess.
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4
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mandyt25
·2021-08-05
Good buy for long term growth.
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- LimLS:
  yes. good for long term. we can ignore short term dips if we just focus on long term results.
  2021-08-06
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JLX
·2021-08-05
Like pls
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- JLX:
  ok
  2021-08-13
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xnubx
·2021-08-05
Ofc buy la!
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Tj23
·2021-08-05
Please like
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3
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- CWL711:
  Ok
  2021-08-05
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Pangabui
·2021-08-05
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
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PEPESZ
·2021-08-05
Buyyyyyy more?
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- PEPESZ:
  Thanks!
  2021-08-06
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- Etet1985:
  yes!
  2021-08-05
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Val準凖
·2021-08-05
Buy buy buy $180
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rollingmoney
·2021-08-05
Wow
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PaigeHeng
·2021-08-05
Buyyyyyy
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6
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- rollingmoney:
  Wow
  2021-08-05
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Bll
·2021-08-05
Buy!!!
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- ocean_wave:
  [强]
  2021-08-05
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Sumei
·2021-08-05
If anyone had bought Apple stock many years back, they can likely attest that Apple stock is a long term hold or what some might term as a forever stock. It rewards you beautifully but you must keepthe faith and be able to ride through negative comments and pessimists and naysayers…
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- M3Mike:
  Ya, Apple forever.
  2021-08-05
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- hongweiiewgn:
  Yes
  2021-08-05
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- oddox:
  thanks
  2021-08-05
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invest0707
·2021-08-05
Like
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7
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- Tomji:
  Need a like
  2021-08-05
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- CW8:
  Liked
  2021-08-05
  Reply
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Chris68
·2021-08-05
Buy and Hodl
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Kmyong
·2021-08-05
Buy buy buy
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oneplus374
·2021-08-05
please like!
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- Tomji:
  Need a like
  2021-08-05
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","article_id":"1158747638","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"在最近公布收益后，苹果股票是买还是卖？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":899455545,"gmtCreate":1628212348887,"gmtModify":1703503203912,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"htmlText":"In terms of its financial health, sales forecast, roadmap for the future, all are excellent. Definitely a good buy and hold for the future.&nbsp;For long term holders, current price is ok. But for those who seek for more safety margin, can always wait for a dip. For those who afraid the dip might never come but still prefer safety, just buy a small position and then wait for dip to add more","listText":"In terms of its financial health, sales forecast, roadmap for the future, all are excellent. Definitely a good buy and hold for the future.&nbsp;For long term holders, current price is ok. But for those who seek for more safety margin, can always wait for a dip. For those who afraid the dip might never come but still prefer safety, just buy a small position and then wait for dip to add more","text":"In terms of its financial health, sales forecast, roadmap for the future, all are excellent. Definitely a good buy and hold for the future. For long term holders, current price is ok. But for those who seek for more safety margin, can always wait for a dip. For those who afraid the dip might never come but still prefer safety, just buy a small position and then wait for dip to add more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899455545","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899187122,"gmtCreate":1628169539266,"gmtModify":1703502456488,"author":{"id":"4089283228527040","authorId":"4089283228527040","name":"KwLau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3567f7deb6e5deddb9f398f87ddcc087","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089283228527040","authorIdStr":"4089283228527040"},"htmlText":"Good opportunity to add to position should it continue to drop.","listText":"Good opportunity to add to position should it continue to drop.","text":"Good opportunity to add to position should it continue to drop.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899187122","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899117253,"gmtCreate":1628168760972,"gmtModify":1703502442340,"author":{"id":"3563667765668803","authorId":"3563667765668803","name":"TaiWoeiHaur","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4573ecee7a4a891ace3e5566a59069d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563667765668803","authorIdStr":"3563667765668803"},"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899117253","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899342782,"gmtCreate":1628164507646,"gmtModify":1703502367416,"author":{"id":"3571016679890290","authorId":"3571016679890290","name":"MajorJackpot","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e3167dc36bc3dc440bfc86312381fbb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571016679890290","authorIdStr":"3571016679890290"},"htmlText":"Wait n see first","listText":"Wait n see first","text":"Wait n see first","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899342782","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899343435,"gmtCreate":1628164013327,"gmtModify":1703502361433,"author":{"id":"3575266857809379","authorId":"3575266857809379","name":"winsolutions","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/c9e4d1da51510232decb9ac63b35ba0e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575266857809379","authorIdStr":"3575266857809379"},"htmlText":"Is still a rock solid stock, but the stock price will likely hold steady I guess.&nbsp;","listText":"Is still a rock solid stock, but the stock price will likely hold steady I guess.&nbsp;","text":"Is still a rock solid stock, but the stock price will likely hold steady I guess.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899343435","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899354172,"gmtCreate":1628163624496,"gmtModify":1703502355518,"author":{"id":"4088157638983690","authorId":"4088157638983690","name":"mandyt25","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94eee74711de9fa6cffcbb6e721fb7c7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088157638983690","authorIdStr":"4088157638983690"},"htmlText":"Good buy for long term growth.&nbsp;","listText":"Good buy for long term growth.&nbsp;","text":"Good buy for long term growth.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899354172","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5441696,"gmtCreate":1628212088189,"gmtModify":1663231995952,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899354172,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes. good for long term. we can ignore short term dips if we just focus on long term results.","text":"yes. good for long term. we can ignore short term dips if we just focus on long term results.","html":"yes. good for long term. we can ignore short term dips if we just focus on long term results."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899382960,"gmtCreate":1628160534850,"gmtModify":1703502308541,"author":{"id":"3575719904277494","authorId":"3575719904277494","name":"JLX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2b82874072af259f37b9124bc903b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575719904277494","authorIdStr":"3575719904277494"},"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899382960","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5518138,"gmtCreate":1628860934781,"gmtModify":1635152398299,"authorId":3575719904277494,"author":{"id":3575719904277494,"idStr":"3575719904277494","authorId":3575719904277494,"name":"JLX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2b82874072af259f37b9124bc903b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899382960,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899306754,"gmtCreate":1628156627178,"gmtModify":1703502250173,"author":{"id":"3561423443372929","authorId":"3561423443372929","name":"xnubx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f39797fc5c6bba66d7252326b6668d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561423443372929","authorIdStr":"3561423443372929"},"htmlText":"Ofc buy la!","listText":"Ofc buy la!","text":"Ofc buy la!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899306754","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899944599,"gmtCreate":1628155190711,"gmtModify":1703502224036,"author":{"id":"3571780042589602","authorId":"3571780042589602","name":"Tj23","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571780042589602","authorIdStr":"3571780042589602"},"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899944599","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435179,"gmtCreate":1628156400829,"gmtModify":1663231968065,"authorId":3579262958727025,"author":{"id":3579262958727025,"idStr":"3579262958727025","authorId":3579262958727025,"name":"CWL711","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982058e5cb33e9069dbb2ca28d3fc46e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899944599,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899943075,"gmtCreate":1628154635997,"gmtModify":1703502215091,"author":{"id":"3570444284639989","authorId":"3570444284639989","name":"Pangabui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b4b9242d9aab94ee79aaaf573818e8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570444284639989","authorIdStr":"3570444284639989"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899943075","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":899920083,"gmtCreate":1628153014042,"gmtModify":1703502183953,"author":{"id":"3578658486074975","authorId":"3578658486074975","name":"PEPESZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebaf682b46c1f56e5c38680b33a78d5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578658486074975","authorIdStr":"3578658486074975"},"htmlText":"Buyyyyyy more?","listText":"Buyyyyyy more?","text":"Buyyyyyy more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899920083","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5443156,"gmtCreate":1628220261170,"gmtModify":1663231999838,"authorId":3578658486074975,"author":{"id":3578658486074975,"idStr":"3578658486074975","authorId":3578658486074975,"name":"PEPESZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebaf682b46c1f56e5c38680b33a78d5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899920083,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks!","text":"Thanks!","html":"Thanks!"},{"id":5434824,"gmtCreate":1628154011640,"gmtModify":1663231966645,"authorId":3584157211271817,"author":{"id":3584157211271817,"idStr":"3584157211271817","authorId":3584157211271817,"name":"Etet1985","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899920083,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes!","text":"yes!","html":"yes!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899980575,"gmtCreate":1628151568697,"gmtModify":1703502157166,"author":{"id":"3581556348949722","authorId":"3581556348949722","name":"Val準凖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc78ba8079eaf21b89d9286a3857c533","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581556348949722","authorIdStr":"3581556348949722"},"htmlText":"Buy buy buy $180","listText":"Buy buy buy $180","text":"Buy buy buy $180","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899980575","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899916590,"gmtCreate":1628151193810,"gmtModify":1703502150822,"author":{"id":"3574935698617505","authorId":"3574935698617505","name":"rollingmoney","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574935698617505","authorIdStr":"3574935698617505"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899916590","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899902966,"gmtCreate":1628148625055,"gmtModify":1703502107523,"author":{"id":"4087866747111470","authorId":"4087866747111470","name":"PaigeHeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8f1e3e96488b03377c4dbbf4776832","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087866747111470","authorIdStr":"4087866747111470"},"htmlText":"Buyyyyyy","listText":"Buyyyyyy","text":"Buyyyyyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899902966","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5434393,"gmtCreate":1628151200996,"gmtModify":1663231963844,"authorId":3574935698617505,"author":{"id":3574935698617505,"idStr":"3574935698617505","authorId":3574935698617505,"name":"rollingmoney","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899902966,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Wow","text":"Wow","html":"Wow"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899908959,"gmtCreate":1628148453271,"gmtModify":1703502104259,"author":{"id":"3575152525326279","authorId":"3575152525326279","name":"Bll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b372fc92d67296f5ba36af78d1d6e935","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575152525326279","authorIdStr":"3575152525326279"},"htmlText":"Buy!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy!!!&nbsp;","text":"Buy!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899908959","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5434773,"gmtCreate":1628153699995,"gmtModify":1663231965442,"authorId":3578971018458145,"author":{"id":3578971018458145,"idStr":"3578971018458145","authorId":3578971018458145,"name":"ocean_wave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899908959,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899900608,"gmtCreate":1628148100604,"gmtModify":1703502099050,"author":{"id":"3566259831309087","authorId":"3566259831309087","name":"Sumei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0a2af1baf6b07a87ffdf41ea17959a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566259831309087","authorIdStr":"3566259831309087"},"htmlText":"If anyone had&nbsp;bought Apple stock&nbsp;many years back, they can likely attest that Apple stock is a long term hold or what some might term as a forever stock.&nbsp;It rewards you beautifully but you must keepthe faith and be able to ride&nbsp;through negative comments and pessimists and naysayers…&nbsp;","listText":"If anyone had&nbsp;bought Apple stock&nbsp;many years back, they can likely attest that Apple stock is a long term hold or what some might term as a forever stock.&nbsp;It rewards you beautifully but you must keepthe faith and be able to ride&nbsp;through negative comments and pessimists and naysayers…&nbsp;","text":"If anyone had bought Apple stock many years back, they can likely attest that Apple stock is a long term hold or what some might term as a forever stock. It rewards you beautifully but you must keepthe faith and be able to ride through negative comments and pessimists and naysayers…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899900608","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435962,"gmtCreate":1628163614938,"gmtModify":1663231969346,"authorId":4088154342981070,"author":{"id":4088154342981070,"idStr":"4088154342981070","authorId":4088154342981070,"name":"M3Mike","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259e456faa292a2e09a116698d67ff21","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899900608,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ya, Apple forever.","text":"Ya, Apple forever.","html":"Ya, Apple forever."},{"id":5434320,"gmtCreate":1628150683768,"gmtModify":1663231963734,"authorId":3582358356914075,"author":{"id":3582358356914075,"idStr":"3582358356914075","authorId":3582358356914075,"name":"hongweiiewgn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1848f0d6e2963f698914aeff51448e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.20","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899900608,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":5434199,"gmtCreate":1628149504778,"gmtModify":1631887098506,"authorId":3583109252998837,"author":{"id":3583109252998837,"idStr":"3583109252998837","authorId":3583109252998837,"name":"oddox","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899900608,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899079872,"gmtCreate":1628147209796,"gmtModify":1703502085681,"author":{"id":"3577671777664239","authorId":"3577671777664239","name":"invest0707","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab13ad9c3013d7006efa320cc22a104d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577671777664239","authorIdStr":"3577671777664239"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899079872","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5434052,"gmtCreate":1628147831001,"gmtModify":1663231963445,"authorId":3577325505292125,"author":{"id":3577325505292125,"idStr":"3577325505292125","authorId":3577325505292125,"name":"Tomji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532a3a0ad4f7404cd51e8a18187863b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899079872,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Need a like","text":"Need a like","html":"Need a like"},{"id":5434366,"gmtCreate":1628150988557,"gmtModify":1635159493346,"authorId":3578367364626693,"author":{"id":3578367364626693,"idStr":"3578367364626693","authorId":3578367364626693,"name":"CW8","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899079872,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Liked","text":"Liked","html":"Liked"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899058069,"gmtCreate":1628145248051,"gmtModify":1703502061340,"author":{"id":"3575974639321365","authorId":"3575974639321365","name":"Chris68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae39a12c3ba237f3b001689ec9a549b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575974639321365","authorIdStr":"3575974639321365"},"htmlText":"Buy and Hodl&nbsp;","listText":"Buy and Hodl&nbsp;","text":"Buy and Hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899058069","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899053023,"gmtCreate":1628145060062,"gmtModify":1703502058234,"author":{"id":"4087548754587790","authorId":"4087548754587790","name":"Kmyong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/285b1727eda76b0888c32eb184268abf","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087548754587790","authorIdStr":"4087548754587790"},"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899053023","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899067721,"gmtCreate":1628143857963,"gmtModify":1703502042308,"author":{"id":"3573639773544520","authorId":"3573639773544520","name":"oneplus374","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573639773544520","authorIdStr":"3573639773544520"},"htmlText":"please like!","listText":"please like!","text":"please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899067721","repostId":1158747638,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158747638","pubTimestamp":1628130472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158747638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158747638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with tot","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>In last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.</li>\n <li>Yet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.</li>\n <li>However, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.</li>\n <li>Apple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our&nbsp;previous coverage&nbsp;projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the&nbsp;following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and&nbsp;Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio&nbsp;for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing&nbsp;video-streaming&nbsp;market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the&nbsp;35 Emmy Nominations&nbsp;that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the&nbsp;Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to&nbsp;iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e1ee20881f92c4563eeeaa5b1963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179a3a17abb5e6e4e0cb20196095a5eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631897e055a326e11a137bad234bd0c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4ffc957a33598110dd5c193b77e637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce3157a7c707f88fa9542c0253d7e4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d398b8df89c54ecc26709392246469b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest&nbsp;four-part debt offering&nbsp;to&nbsp;taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b30bd02b3ef44a0cc3e7fef6501235c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30976c090450f0576826720e5a1ab19a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell After Recently Announced Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444713-apple-stock-buy-sell-recent-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158747638","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn last week's earnings release, Apple posted record-setting June quarter results, with total net sales of $81.4 billion, up 36% year-over-year.\nYet, warnings about supply chain constraints and service revenues returning to more typical levels took its share price by surprise, with a same day drop of as much as 3%.\nHowever, the headwinds are expected to be temporary with no significant impacts to Apple's long-term growth prospects and valuation.\nApple is expected to keep delivering unprecedented growth, underpinned by continued global demand for its products and services in the long run. And the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company's long-term gains.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nJust a week ago, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) reported record-setting June quarter results that had crushed market expectations. The Cupertino-based tech giant recorded largest quarterly revenues ever of $81.4 billion, which were up 36% from the prior year and outperformed the average Wall Street forecast of $72.9 billion and our previous coverage projections of $76.5 billion by nearly $10 billion.\nThe company also saw robust double-digit growth across the board from products and services to every geographic segment, with the installed base of devices and paid service subscriptions reaching an all-time high; the stellar results were also indicative of increased market penetration with the largest double-digit growth recorded for switchers and upgraders ever for a June-quarter, marking another record-breaking milestone in the books this quarter and continued dominance across all markets for Apple.\nYet, Apple’s shares slipped as much as 3% following the earnings call and continues to be down close to 1% since July 27th. The stock also has not fared well amongst its FAANG counterparts in recent weeks from the stock sell-off triggered by fear that the latest resurgence of the coronavirus’ delta variant could erode economic growth.\nThe contradicting movement in Apple’s share price compared to its stellar June quarter financial results allegedly stemmed from management’s warning of decelerated growth for the upcoming September quarter as lingering supply chain constraints are expected to place an adverse impact on product sales, especially on the revenue-leading iPhone and iPad categories; other headwinds also include weaker FX gains and anticipated slowed growth in the services category as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels following above-normal June quarter results.\nHowever, we consider anticipated headwinds as only short-term impacts that will not result in permanent losses for the company. The Apple stock remains primed for further upside considering the rising global demand for its products and services. Despite the supply crunch and decelerated growth anticipated for the upcoming September quarter, our outlook remains bullish on Apple with upside of more than 15% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd. With Apple’s stock price still down 0.85% from its earnings call on July 27thand down close to 3% from its mid-July peak, we consider the recent price pullback an advantage slated for long-term gains.\nStrength in Overcoming Lost Sales from Supply Constraints\nOne of the key drivers for slowed growth anticipated for the September quarter is the ongoing chip supply shortage, which had previously caused more pervasive impact to the automotive industry but has now trickled down to consumer electronics. And Apple, who has its proprietary chips made by the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSMor “TSMC”), has not been spared from impact, with management warning of a supply constraint for the legacy semiconductor nodes used in the display and audio functions of its best-selling products, which is expected to drive lower sales in the near term.\nTSMC has also warned the chip shortage will likely continue into the following year, which is consistent with the timeline issued across all impacted industries. Although management has not provided a quantified range for the anticipated impact on the September quarter’s results, it is expected to be far more severe than what was experienced in the June quarter, which was on the low end of the $3 billion and $4 billion range estimate provided in April.\nHowever, the continued acceleration in global demand for iPhones and iPads is expected to more than compensate for the upcoming loss of revenues in later periods as “deferred” sales when raw material supplies return, and pending demand is fulfilled. To date, 97% of customers who have purchased from the iPhone 12 family have indicated appreciation for the enhanced 5G speeds, alongside improved chip technology and camera quality.\nThe product category has also seen strong upgrade and switch rates in recent months as users continue their transition from legacy iPhones and other smartphones to the latest and greatest 5G-enabled iPhone. Considering 5G technology is still in early stages of adoption with low penetration rate, there is still significant additional growth opportunities available for the current and future 5G-enabled iPhone models.\nGlobal demand for 5G-enabled devices is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 38% into 2026, which further corroborates the expectation that potential lost sales from the ongoing supply shortage will not be permanent as demand for iPhones will continue to persist at high levels and make-whole lost sales in later periods when chip supplies return. A similar trend is expected for iPad demands in the long run, as it has proven itself during the pandemic to be a versatile and affordable tool to support creativity and social connection.\nThe production and sales bottleneck caused by the ongoing global chip supply shortage will only be a temporary pause to Apple’s iPhone and iPad hot streak, which is expected to resume in strength when the supply chain finds alleviation to its current crunch sometime next year. And when this happens, we should be expecting above-normal sales levels underpinned by robust demand, similar to those observed in the June quarter.\nOutperforming Competition in the Services Segment with Innovation\nAlthough the above-normal growth in the services business segment observed during the June quarter is expected to revert to more moderated historical levels going forward, Apple has continued to be diligent in rolling out “innovative new features and programming” to increase reach and maintain market dominance in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nApple’s services business segment – which includes iCloud, Apple TV+, App Store, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, advertising, payment and other service offerings – currently competes head-on with other prominent service providers like Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN),Google(Nasdaq:GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook(Nasdaq:FB). In order to maintain its established reputation for innovative technology and grow its loyal fanbase, Apple has recently introduced several new upgrades to existing service offerings at its most recent Worldwide Developers Conference (“WWDC”).\nThe new exciting features include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audio for Apple Music, which enables an “immersive” listening experience and provides access to the studio quality of original audio files at no additional cost – a competitive advantage to audio streaming leader Spotify’s “HiFi” equivalent, which will likely come at a higher price tag upon launch. And for Apple TV+ – Apple’s gateway to the fast-growing video-streaming market – the company has continued to produce quality programming, which is proven through the 35 Emmy Nominations that it has received this year.\nA new generation of the Apple TV, which includes a Siri-enabled remote and enhanced colour balance technology, has also been unveiled to complement its improved programming, which is expected to further enhance customer traction for the segment. The tech giant has also rebranded its iCloud service to iCloud+, with additional upgrades including enhanced privacy features and expanded HomeKit Secure Video support to accompany its suite of smart home devices at no additional costs.\nOther recently launched and enhanced services include Apple Podcast subscriptions, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+, which could be bundled through Apple One at a discounted subscription rate. The Apple One bundle, which was launched in Q2, has already seen incredible success with increasing adoption rates that continue to drive overall growth within the services business segment.\nOverall Financial Prospects\nConsidering the above analysis on Apple’s current operating environment, the recent headwinds that will drive decelerated growth during the September quarter are expected to be temporary and will be overcome with ease in the long run. Our base case forecast projects total net sales of $85.6 billion for the September quarter, representing 32% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with management’s expectations for strong double-digit year-over-year growth that will be slightly lower than the 36% reported for the June quarter.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nOur projected total net sales for the September quarter consist of $67.6 billion in product sales, up 35% from the prior year, and $18.0 billion in service sales, up 24% from the prior year. Altogether, our base case forecast projects total net sales of $368.1 billion for FY 2021, which represents year-over-year growth of 34%. The company’s net sales are expected to maintain accelerated growth at a CAGR of 8% towards $534.4 billion by FY 2026 due to increasing adoption and integration of technology and digital media into both professional and personal aspects of day-to-day routines.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nGross profit margins are projected at 41.7% for the September quarter, which is consistent with management’s guidance of approximately 41.5% to 42.5% considering the higher freight costs expected for this quarter, offset by an overall decline in component supply costs as product sales continue to scale.\nTotal operating expenses are projected at $11.4 billion for the fiscal year’s fourth quarter, which consists of $6.0 billion related to research and development efforts, and $5.4 billion related to selling, general and administrative expenses; this is consistent with Apple’s cost structure observed in recent periods, and in line with the estimated range of $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion provided in management’s guidance.\nAs a result, our base case forecast projects total cost of sales of $214.5 billion, and total operating expenses of $43.9 billion for FY 2021. And a similar cost structure is expected to apply into FY 2026 to support Apple’s continued growth in its products and services categories, as well as across all geographic segments in which it currently operates in.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAltogether, our base case forecast projects FY 2021 net income of $94.8 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 65%. The bottom line is forecasted for further growth at a CAGR of 7% into the next five years, resulting in projected net income of $132.5 billion by 2026.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nAAPL Stock Valuation\nOur revised price target for Apple based on updated information from its recent earnings release is $170.91. This represents upside potential of 17.4% based on the last traded share price of $145.52 on August 2nd.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nTo arrive at the $170.91 price target, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows over a five-year discrete period; the WACC is consistent with Apple’s current risk profile and capital structure, which includes its latest four-part debt offering to taling $6.5 billion. Our valuation analysis also assumes a 19.7x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with guideline public companies and precedent transactions within Apple’s industry peer group, and is reflective of current market expectations for Apple’s business growth potential in the long run.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nIn order to validate our foregoing analysis that the adverse impacts to sales resulting from supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues and less favourable FX are only temporary and will not materially change Apple’s upside potential, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact to FY 2021 revenues needed to decrease our base case price target of $170.91 by 10%.\nBased on our sensitivity analysis, FY 2021 revenues of $301.5 billion with growth at a CAGR of 10% into 2026, while holding all other valuation assumptions (i.e. cost structure, WACC, EV/EBITDA multiple) discussed above constant, would result in a price target of $153.82, which is 10% lower than our base case price target of $170.91.\nConsidering year-to-date total net sales of $282.5 billion, Apple would only need to achieve total net sales of $19.0 billion for the September quarter to maintain a projected equity value of $2.5 trillion or $153.82 per share, which is highly unlikely even under supply constraint pressures and reduced services segment sales based on the company’s current growth trajectory. As such, we do not consider the near-term impacts related to supply constraints, moderated services segment revenues, and unfavourable FX a catalyst for permanent loss to Apple’s valuation.\ni. Revenue Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion - Is AAPL Stock A Good Buy?\nConsidering Apple’s growth prospects, the recent price pullback makes a great buy opportunity for those looking to participate in the company’s long-term gains. The near-term headwinds related to industry-wide supply constraints and normalized services segment revenues are not expected to materially change Apple’s growth trajectory nor valuation in the long run.\nAny lost revenues in the September quarter will very likely be recouped when the supply chain restores its balance, considering the continued surge in demand for iPhones and iPads underpinned by ongoing 5G transition and the increasing need for versatile portable smart devices to enable online access at all times. As a global industry leader with successes achieved to date that very few could match, Apple is poised for further upside realization in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5434054,"gmtCreate":1628147841121,"gmtModify":1663231964834,"authorId":3577325505292125,"author":{"id":3577325505292125,"idStr":"3577325505292125","authorId":3577325505292125,"name":"Tomji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532a3a0ad4f7404cd51e8a18187863b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899067721,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Need a like ","text":"Need a like ","html":"Need a like "}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":316,"commentSize":68,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}