Re-Evaluating NIO After Its 30% Drop

seekingalpha2021-07-30

Summary Shares of NIO have dropped sharply in July. NIO’s sell-off accelerated this week amid Beijing’s hardening crackdown on multiple business sectors. However, NIO operates in a non-monopolistic ...

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Comment（54）

DenisL
·2021-08-01
Buy the dips!
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SilentWarrio
·2021-08-01
It will get stronger..
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1
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Meshaarias72
·2021-07-31
Like n comment pls
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2
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DerrickDoge
·2021-07-31
Buy
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6
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Wahahoho
·2021-07-31
Buy!
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3
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Chris68
·2021-07-31
Continue to hodl and buy at the dip!
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2
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- sunshine138:
  Agreed
  2021-07-31
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ming22
·2021-07-31
Go for long term [美金]
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2
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PhilipGoh
·2021-07-31
Good to buy and hold for awhile [微笑]
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2
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hpt
·2021-07-31
Cool
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3
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DMC8
·2021-07-31
Nice !
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2
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Kazren
·2021-07-31
Good
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2
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Cvt
·2021-07-31
Up to follow Tesla
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5
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Et1502
·2021-07-31
Will NIO be like TSLA, I think, YES, but, maybe 3 to 5 years’ time
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5
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- Et1502:
  Chinese listed US Stock Exchange looks like at ris…
  2021-08-01
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- tkj:
  I hope so but i don't think so.
  2021-07-31
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- Kazren:
  ??
  2021-07-31
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Stylerz
·2021-07-31
Definitely worth more than its current price by end q3
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- rae90:
  driver
  2021-08-24
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- rae90:
  still a buy?
  2021-07-31
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Jasonc13
·2021-07-31
Continue[看漲]
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3
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koolgal
·2021-07-31
Go Nio! We believe in you! ???
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11
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- koolgalReplying toJQJQ:
  Thanks. You too. ?☺️
  2021-08-02
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- JQJQReplying tokoolgal:
  Big big week coming! Big earnings for both us ?
  2021-08-01
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- koolgalReplying toJQJQ:
  Big week ahead???
  2021-08-01
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TweetyCSL
·2021-07-31
[強]
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- WangZhai:
  have faith in it
  2021-07-31
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Gaga71
·2021-07-31
Buy and hold
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4
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replaygoh
·2021-07-31
gogogo
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hlw8888
·2021-07-30
opportunity to buy more?
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3
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However, the Chinese market for electric vehicles has the full policy support of Beijing and local governments. The risk profile appears to be heavily skewed to the upside, and I am going to explain why.\nChina's crackdown\nIt all started with the crackdown on cryptocurrencies a few months ago when Chinese regulators forbade financial institutions to offer crypto-related services to its customers. Since then, the crackdown has widened and Beijing is using its anti-monopoly agency, the State Administration for Market Regulation, to rein in monopolistic enterprises. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), China's Facebook (FB), was just forced by the SAMR to give up its exclusive music copyrights within 30 days. Ride-hailing firm DiDi(NYSE:DIDI), China's Uber Technologies (UBER), saw its app pulled from app stores earlier this month - which is likely related to its overseas stock listing- and Alibaba, China's Amazon (AMZN), was hit with a $2.8B fine for abusing its market dominance in E-commerce a few months ago. The crackdown widened this week after Chinese regulators banned paid tutoring in the education sector and forbade raising capital abroad. Beijing's government actions roiled the Chinese stock market, including shares of firms like NIO that are not directly affected by the crackdown.\nThe Chinese EV market is growing extremely fast and has no monopolistic structure\nThe Chinese market for electric vehicles looks very different than the market for search, social media or E-commerce where a few very large corporations control nearly the entire market. NIO, XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) are all relative small Chinese makers of electric vehicles that are unlikely to attract any kind of antitrust action. While BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) is one of the larger EV companies in China regarding size and revenues, NIO and its two closest rivals, XPeng and Li Auto, are relatively small.\nData by YCharts\nNIO, XPeng and Li Auto are selling just a few thousand vehicles a month each. NIO sold 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, showing growth of 116% Y/Y, but NIO and its EV rivals are not anywhere near dominating the market for electric vehicles. China sold 1.3M electric vehicles in 2020, representing 41% of all EV sales globally. China is by far the largest market for electric vehicles and it has the largest EV stock. Sales for battery-powered and hybrid passenger cars soared to almost 5M in 2020 in an industry that is seeing momentum and accelerating delivery growth of EVs.\n(Source: The International Council On Clean Transportation)\nIn 2021, China could see 1.9M EV sales, indicating near-50% Y/Y growth. NIO will deliver just short of 100,000 EVs in 2021 - based on my delivery projections for FY 2021- which would give NIO a market share for new EV sales of less than 5 percent. About 10% of new car sales in China are EVs, a percentage that according to BYD founder Wang Chuanfu could rise to 70% within the decade. This estimate, however, may even be on the low end as EV deliveries really started to skyrocket in FY 2021. Plug-in sales are surging in China and the market is seeing accelerating uptake as all Chinese EV makers add new models to their EV line-ups.\n(Source: InsideEVs)\nGovernment is actively supporting Chinese EV makers\nThere is another major difference between the market NIO operates in and the markets Beijing is cracking down on to correct monopolistic behavior. As opposed to the tech sector, for example, the Chinese government actively initiated policies that support the industry. Accelerating EV adoption is an explicit policy goal that Beijing and Chinese municipalities pursue through various means, and these goals tie in with the government's plan to be carbon-neutral by 2060. Because of this, Beijing wants to see 20% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2025 which explains why the adoption of zero-emission vehicles is heavily supported by local governments. Municipalities and big Chinese cities set incentives for EV adoption by offering purchase subsidies as well as other perks.\n(Source: IEA Global Energy Outlook)\nSince Beijing is heavily supporting Chinese EV makers and the market is non-monopolistic, the risk of seeing government intervention in this sector of the economy is really, really low.\nOverreaction creates an opportunity to engage\nAfter NIO's 30% drop since June, every dollar put into NIO buys more growth. All Chinese EV makers dropped hard since June and the sell-off affected NIO as well as its rivals. Shares of NIO dropped 9% on Tuesday and the EV maker now has the lowest year-to-date return of its rivals.\nData by YCharts\nDue to the market's overreaction to Beijing's antitrust actions that are limited to markets with monopolistic structures, NIO's sales growth is now also 30% cheaper. NIO could see at least 100% delivery growth in FY 2021 and the BaaS revenue opportunity is the key differentiating factor that sets NIO apart from the competition.\n(Source: Author)\nRisks with NIO\nGovernment intervention is generally a risk in the second-biggest economy, but I don't believe it is a big risk for NIO. The biggest risk for NIO, by far, is slowing revenue and delivery growth rates which could spark a revaluation of the EV maker and result in a lower sales multiplier factor. A more serious risk for NIO and other car brands, short term, is the semiconductor shortage that is lowering factory output. NIO lowered its production guidance earlier this year and guided for a rebound in the second half of the year. If the chip supply shortage lasts longer than expected and starts to take a bite out of NIO's delivery growth in 2021, NIO's stock could face more pressure and skew the risk profile to the downside. A widening regulatory crackdown in China that involves, for whatever reason, small EV makers (possible, but not probable) would mean that a fundamental revaluation of NIO is needed.\nFinal thoughts\nThis is a buy-the-dip opportunity because the market appears to be overreacting to China's antitrust actions. Tencent's market is very different than NIO's market (Tencent has a monopoly) and NIO's electric vehicle business has the explicit support of Beijing. Policy goals to accelerate EV adoption tie in with Beijing's climate change goals and favor NIO's growth. Additionally, NIO is an extremely small car brand based on revenues and it should not attract any kind of harmful government interference.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":802543403,"gmtCreate":1627790842002,"gmtModify":1703495936074,"author":{"id":"4088158505984320","authorId":"4088158505984320","authorIdStr":"4088158505984320","name":"DenisL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d13e043c2c38e5d7bfd53d016d5c6bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088158505984320"},"htmlText":"Buy the dips!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dips!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dips!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802543403","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":802286979,"gmtCreate":1627782871991,"gmtModify":1703495745487,"author":{"id":"3580689210488653","authorId":"3580689210488653","authorIdStr":"3580689210488653","name":"SilentWarrio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c904a9b7d64fe6eb5230d2a57a74ffee","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580689210488653"},"htmlText":"It will get stronger..","listText":"It will get stronger..","text":"It will get stronger..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802286979","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":802128069,"gmtCreate":1627737005151,"gmtModify":1703495354361,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802128069","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":802928257,"gmtCreate":1627708802279,"gmtModify":1703495076288,"author":{"id":"3581672061336023","authorId":"3581672061336023","authorIdStr":"3581672061336023","name":"DerrickDoge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7512a6d7a73b844ab9bb490e1cca3cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581672061336023"},"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802928257","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":802920781,"gmtCreate":1627708471243,"gmtModify":1703495071067,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574919981905986"},"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802920781","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":802900906,"gmtCreate":1627703126905,"gmtModify":1703494987564,"author":{"id":"3575974639321365","authorId":"3575974639321365","authorIdStr":"3575974639321365","name":"Chris68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae39a12c3ba237f3b001689ec9a549b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575974639321365"},"htmlText":"Continue to hodl and buy at the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Continue to hodl and buy at the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Continue to hodl and buy at the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802900906","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5386342,"gmtCreate":1627704792629,"gmtModify":1663231747244,"authorId":3586655655659820,"author":{"id":3586655655659820,"authorId":3586655655659820,"name":"sunshine138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23149c63a63bfeec1572cc27e1322750","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":802900906,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Agreed</u>","text":"<u>Agreed</u>","html":"<u>Agreed</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806770042,"gmtCreate":1627696739486,"gmtModify":1703494827131,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","authorIdStr":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571044771112848"},"htmlText":"Go for long term&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"Go for long term&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"Go for long term [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806770042","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":806782366,"gmtCreate":1627694423455,"gmtModify":1703494760459,"author":{"id":"3574730309796268","authorId":"3574730309796268","authorIdStr":"3574730309796268","name":"PhilipGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6085185a57dcb9a222e871338387428","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574730309796268"},"htmlText":"Good to buy and hold for awhile&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy and hold for awhile&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Good to buy and hold for awhile [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806782366","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":806476075,"gmtCreate":1627691591197,"gmtModify":1703494688495,"author":{"id":"3579759306103275","authorId":"3579759306103275","authorIdStr":"3579759306103275","name":"hpt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986ef7c951112f7be64cfd5d6c1672c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579759306103275"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806476075","repostId":1166392380,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806479837,"gmtCreate":1627691388729,"gmtModify":1703494684553,"author":{"id":"3579992296424941","authorId":"3579992296424941","authorIdStr":"3579992296424941","name":"DMC8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65aa8f5f6299558ce2ab36482793f750","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579992296424941"},"htmlText":"Nice !&nbsp;","listText":"Nice !&nbsp;","text":"Nice 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