全球缺芯潮下，半导体值得投资吗？

雪球2021-05-22

去年下半年以来，全球芯片供应短缺问题愈演愈烈，主要原因是芯片制造公司在去年疫情中的“错判”，在减少芯片供应的同时，却没有意识到全球主要经济体居家办公潮流所带来的芯片需求爆发式增长。据推测，缓解芯片供应短缺问题至少要等到明年第二季度。芯源微公司高管则预计，当前是历史上中国半导体市场的最好时期，“至少会持续三到五年”。面对这种形势，A股公司芯片设计和制造龙头们纷纷提价或扩产，以捕捉机会。产业链...

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五意丰
·2021-05-24
支持國產芯片企業的發展
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juanjuanjuan
·2021-05-23
??????
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1
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Justin_L
·2021-05-23
長線值得
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1
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- Jerry6666:
  [得意]
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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FZWIN72
·2021-05-23
?????
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2
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- Simon00:
  [得意]
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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风雪腊梅
·2021-05-23
???
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LMF83
·2021-05-23
[微笑]
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1
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云里梦里飞
·2021-05-23
缺芯不是產能瓶頸是新冠扭曲了供應鏈，新館結束了那些閒置的產能咋辦。。。
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5
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- 赞我的今年账户翻十倍:
  [开心]
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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- 53570b80:
  新冠改变了生活方式和产业链
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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SanGuo
·2021-05-23
那你看呢[驚訝]
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3
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劉洧綸
·2021-05-23
[無語]
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4
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小苹果APPLE
·2021-05-23
[財迷]
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2
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长河_967
·2021-05-23
應該屬於週期性的標的，只適合短炒，不適合長期過度投資
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2
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Jasanxu
·2021-05-23
值得
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1
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Ericpang122
·2021-05-23
短期效果不大長期投資OK
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2
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Wishonest
·2021-05-23
半導體是科技的硬件基礎
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2
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- YourCFP:
  软件是科技的技术基础
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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BenWong78
·2021-05-23
快快買
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1
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- BenWong78:
  hi
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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- BenWong78:
  ?
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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来自上海的老沈
·2021-05-23
也許可以
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3
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CKYong
·2021-05-23
投資半導體已經成爲趨勢，在心片斷缺問題之下；半導體依然是長期投資的好股票。
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- CLew:
  thks
  2021-05-23
  Reply
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小虎发财
·2021-05-23
?應該是可以
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1
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伙计办大事
·2021-05-23
值得[齜牙] [齜牙]
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2
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盈赢家
·2021-05-22
?
Reply
1
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kIwqrCyEXFW_aSvEMP4pA><strong>雪球</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年下半年以来，全球芯片供应短缺问题愈演愈烈，主要原因是芯片制造公司在去年疫情中的“错判”，在减少芯片供应的同时，却没有意识到全球主要经济体居家办公潮流所带来的芯片需求爆发式增长。\n据推测，缓解芯片供应短缺问题至少要等到明年第二季度。芯源微公司高管则预计，当前是历史上中国半导体市场的最好时期，“至少会持续三到五年”。\n\n面对这种形势，A股公司芯片设计和制造龙头们纷纷提价或扩产，以捕捉机会。产业链...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kIwqrCyEXFW_aSvEMP4pA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"603986","symbol_name":"兆易创新","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kIwqrCyEXFW_aSvEMP4pA","article_id":"1169073200","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169073200","pubTimestamp":1621676633,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1583216979511","name":"雪球"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"去年下半年以来，全球芯片供应短缺问题愈演愈烈。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"300782":"卓胜微","600460":"士兰微","600584":"长电科技","603160":"汇顶科技","603986":"兆易创新","688008":"澜起科技","688012":"中微公司","688037":"芯源微","002185":"华天科技","002371":"北方华创","002049":"紫光国微"},"translate_title":"Is Semiconductor Worth Investment under the Global Core Lack Tide?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a476a8ff6edb39ac87ee541d824f19a","symbols_score_info":{"300782":0.9,"600460":0.9,"600584":0.9,"603160":0.9,"603986":0.9,"688008":0.9,"688012":0.9,"688037":0.9,"002049":0.9,"002185":0.9,"002371":0.9},"content_text":"去年下半年以来，全球芯片供应短缺问题愈演愈烈，主要原因是芯片制造公司在去年疫情中的“错判”，在减少芯片供应的同时，却没有意识到全球主要经济体居家办公潮流所带来的芯片需求爆发式增长。\n据推测，缓解芯片供应短缺问题至少要等到明年第二季度。芯源微公司高管则预计，当前是历史上中国半导体市场的最好时期，“至少会持续三到五年”。\n\n面对这种形势，A股公司芯片设计和制造龙头们纷纷提价或扩产，以捕捉机会。产业链下游的一些龙头公司有些以提价应对原材料涨价，有些则在谋求分得芯片行业的一杯羹。\n与此同时，按照国家的目标，2025年芯片自给率要提升到70%，而据外媒测算，2020年中国芯片自给率或在15.9%左右，芯片市场规模远超万亿。当下的半导体行业值得投资吗？\n01\n半导体有多重要？\n芯片，简单来说就是用半导体材料制成的集成电路。\n芯片是信息产业最重要的部件，手机、电脑、汽车、高铁、电网……这些领域都需要用到大量的芯片，可以说只要涉及到信息的地方就需要芯片。比如电脑里处理信息的CPU，内存里的储存芯片，手机里处理信号的射频芯片和基带芯片、手机里摄像单元的信号处理芯片。\n人类迄今为止经历了三次技术浪潮，每一次都有对应的核心资源。\n如果说煤是第一次工业革命的核心资源；\n石油是第二次工业革命的核心资源；\n那芯片就是第三次信息革命的核心资源；\n同时芯片将和数据一起，成为即将到来的第四次智能革命的核心资源，在未来5G+AI的万物互联+智能时代，芯片的需求会被继续放大。\n02\n行业背景和发展现状\n我国目前芯片消费量大，集成电路关键材料的进口依赖程度高。芯片制作生产线非常复杂，涉及五十个行业、2000-5000个工序。从进口量来看，2019年我国进口集成电路2.67亿块，产量1.19亿块，出口1.34亿块，因此计算得到表观消费量2.52亿块，对外依赖度非常高。\n目前我国核心集成电路的国产芯片占有率整体较低，除了移动通信终端和核心网络设备有部分集成电路产品占有率超过10%外，包括计算机系统、通用电子系统、显示及视频系统中的核心集成电路国产芯片占有率都是0。\n芯片产业链包括装备、材料、设计、制造、封装测试五个环节。在装备与材料方面，中国与国际顶尖水平差距较大。而封测领域，中国芯片封装企业长电科技已经跻身世界第三。因此，加大力度+投入在芯片设计与制造两大环节可以带动产业链的前后两端。设计与制造环节目前也是中国芯片产业投资和政府扶持的重点。\n随着中国产业升级的浪潮，以及贸易争端带来的进口限制，芯片开始成为国家大力扶持的产业，国产芯片行业将迎来进口替代导致的需求暴增。\n03\n变局和前景\n1.国产替代，自主可控\n自主可控，就是要减少进口依赖，实现国产替代。以美国为例，美国长期以来一直都是半导体产业的领头羊，仅2018年，美国半导体企业全球营收总额为2260亿美元，全球市场份额占比达48%。同年中国公司占全球半导体需求的23%，但自身半导体产业仅能满足国内需求的14%。\n“中国制造2025”的战略目标，计划到2025年，半导体自给率提升至70%，而目前的自给率则不到20%。在欧美等国采取半导体核心技术出口限制的背景下，要想打破当前的格局，摆脱进口依赖、实现自主可控，国产替代是必由之路，而半导体就是实现国产替代的关键。\n从现在的情况来看：\n一方面，中国在全球半导体市场份额提升，国产替代进程加快。举个例子，国际半导体产业协会统计，全球将在2017-2020年间投产62座半导体晶圆厂，其中26座设于中国大陆，占全球总数的42%，可见我国半导体产业发展在迎头追赶。\n另一方面，半导体上游除了美国设备外，荷兰ASML的光刻机，日本的检测设备与原物料，在先进制程也具有行业垄断地位。半导体国产化领域在外部环境催化下，预计仍是政策扶持与二级市场投入的重点，制造环节也将持续提升先进制程能力；与此同时，目前中国半导体材料与设备国产化率平均不足20%，将是行业发展的重中之重，未来的空间还很大。\n另外，随着5G手机、5G基站以及AI等产品的陆续推出，半导体下游终端设备需求有望带来新一轮增长。同时，贸易问题持续不确定加速了国产替代化的步伐，进而带动国内芯片设计、封装和制造的需求，半导体下游景气度持续提升。\n2.第三代半导体纳入十四五规划\n在半导体得到广泛应用以前，计算机系统依靠的是笨重的电子管。直到半导体材料的出现，才让电子产品小型化、电子功能复杂化成为可能，也才有了我们现在的电脑、手机等一系列高度复杂的产品。\n此前第一代半导体材料以硅为代表，使得集成电路成为可能，但硅材料在光电子领域和高频高功率器件方面的应用受到诸多限制。\n第二代半导体材料以砷化镓、磷化铟为代表，突破了硅材料的瓶颈，是制作高性能微波、毫米波器件及发光器件的优良材料。\n第三代半导体以碳化硅、氮化镓为代表，可应用在更高阶的高压功率元件以及高频通讯元件领域。\n从长期来看，中国半导体产业的发展具有产业集群优势、成本优势、市场规模等优势，在进口替代和产业升级的驱动下，中国半导体产业的前景是光明的。因为发展高科技产业既是中国产业升级的方向，也是中国人民追求美好生活的必经之路，而半导体是发展科技产业无法迈过的基础性行业。\n3. 芯片行业历史级别景气来袭，产业链话语权迎来较大变化。\n芯片行业综合数据 21Q1 表现亮眼，行业话语权提升显著。芯片行业已经明确看到了产业龙头气象，即使遇到外部打压和疫情影响的大环境下，芯片行业依然成为了21Q1表现十分亮眼板块，目前半导体三大细分板块库存均处于历史底部。\n\n一方面，芯片的话语权更多从下游终端以及中游模组代工厂商向上游芯片转移；下游缺货、涨价情况会愈演愈烈，从汽车到手机、电视、家电等各方面，所谓的重复下单不过是芯片话语权在产业链提升的微观体验之一。\n另一方面，芯片行业本身的话语权更加趋于向大公司的集中，大者恒大、强者越强的情况更为显著，大而强公司的竞争环境将在未来更加优秀。小公司无论是新品研发（流片等），还是产能保证都很难得到满足，大而强的核心产业链包括设计、制造、封测、设备与材料将更加凸显。代工整体高景气，龙头资本开支大幕启动，核心龙头持续放量。\n04\n半导体行业龙头有哪些？\n通过查询中证全指半导体产品与设备指数的权重股，我们了解到当下国内半导体行业的领军企业。\n\n卓胜微 国产射频龙头。5G通信技术的发展带动了射频前端市场需求的快速增长，公司抓住5G和国产替代发展机遇，不断丰富和优化产品结构，在保持射频分立器件竞争优势的同时，持续推进射频模组产品的市场化进程。\n兆易创新 国产存储器芯片龙头。公司从2019年第三季度在NORFlash全球市场份额排名跃升到第三位。在DRAM领域，长鑫存储推出首颗国产DDR4内存芯片。公司继续推进与合肥长鑫的DRAM业务合作，同时投入自研DRAM产品。\n紫光国微 老牌芯片领军企业。公司在特种集成电路技术领域处于国内领先地位，智能安全芯片THD89通过国际SOGISCCEAL6+安全认证，成为中国首款和唯一通过该最高等级安全认证的芯片，在产品安全性方面达到了国际顶尖水准。\n北方华创 国产半导体设备的领军企业。经过多年的发展，北方华创在电子工艺装备及电子元器件领域构建了坚实的技术基础，建立了有竞争力的产品体系，打造了专业的技术和管理团队，形成了较强的核心竞争能力。\n长电科技 集成电路封测龙头。重点发展系统级、晶圆级和2.5D/3D等先进封装技术，并实现大规模生产。中国集成电路行业规模最大的芯片成品制造企业，支撑相关封测设备/材料/软件的产业链合作。\n汇顶科技 安卓指纹识别芯片领域的领头羊。公司生物识别和人机交互产品延续了在智能终端市场广泛应用的态势，在汽车市场获得重大突破，车载触控和指纹方案已在多个国内外知名汽车品牌广泛商用；健康和穿戴传感器销售已成规模，并得到大客户高度认可；VAS业务的融入，打开了公司在声学领域的发展空间，智能音频放大器产品持续保持在安卓阵营的出货量全球领先地位。\n澜起科技 围绕云计算和人工智能领域，产品线已从内存接口芯片延伸到PCIeRetimer芯片、内存模组配套芯片、服务器CPU、混合安全内存模组和人工智能（AI）芯片等领域，逐步走向平台型芯片设计公司。\n华天科技 国内领先的半导体集成电路封测企业。公司自设立以来一直十分重视技术和产品创新，通过技术攻关，逐步掌握了国际上先进的新型高密度集成电路封装核心技术，现有封装技术水平及科技研发实力已处于国内同行业领先地位。\n中微公司 高端半导体微观加工设备公司。产品布局及技术研发面向世界科技前沿，公司CCP刻蚀设备产品保持竞争优势，ICP刻蚀设备已经逐步趋于成熟。\n05\n如何投资波动巨大的半导体行业？\n半导体行业个股具有的高波动性，解决这一半导体的办法，就是指数化投资，过去三年中证全指半导体产品与设备指数走势稳中向上，那么有没有场内的基金可以一键投资这一指数的所有个股呢？国联安中证半导体ETF正好符合这个需求。\n\n1.国联安中证半导体ETF概况\n基金类型：ETF-场内\n代码：512480（主代码）\n规模：97.35亿元（2021-05-19）\n管理人：国联安基金\n成立时间：2019-04-22\n管理费率：0.50%（每年）\n托管费率：0.10%（每年）\n投资目标：紧密跟踪标的指数,追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差的最小化。\n跟踪标的：中证全指半导体产品与设备指数\n投资策略：采用组合复制策略及适当的替代性策略以更好的跟踪标的指数,实现基金投资目标。\n2.基金经理\n黄欣、上任日期：2019-05-08\n伦敦经济学院会计金融专业硕士研究生，美国寿险精算师协会ASA、美国金融分析师协会CFA。18年证券从业经验，现任国联安中证半导体ETF及联接基金等10余只指数基金的基金经理。\n章椹元、上任日期：2020-08-13\n研究生学历，13年证券从业经验。自2015年3月起任富国中证全指证券公司指数分级证券投资基金和富国中证新能源汽车指数分级证券投资基金基金经理。2020年8月13日担任国联安中证全指半导体产品与设备交易型开放式指数证券投资基金联接基金基金经理。\n\n半导体行业所具有的高波动性特征与行业所具有的高壁垒以及周期性相关。一方面半导体企业属于高科技行业，研发投入大、增速快、行业壁垒深，行业信息不对称程度高，市场估值容易出现偏差；另一方面半导体的下游产品大多属于可选消费品，需求受经济周期的影响相对较大。\n指数化投资便是非常适宜的选择，一方面对于波动较大的行业而言，指数化投资本身便能充分享受行业发展带来的收益；另一方面便是我们反复强调的避免个股踩雷。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":133470258,"gmtCreate":1621794929974,"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